Opinion When do YOU think we will be pushing for a flag?

[Essendonia]

One side's standing a clear head above the others. IMHO.

Pies/Swans/Crows - meh.

All year, despite our descent, the only team that 'scared' me was Hawthorn. By this, I mean that even on our day, we might not win. Each other team was, I believe, surmountable.

Of course, the next fortnight and pre-season will change things, but as it currently stands, all things (injuries) being equal, I believe our best 25 can match it with almost every side, which - if true - is a good position to be in with a list of our age and experience.

To answer the OP, 'pushing' for a flag implies that you have a realistic chance at winning it, which, in turn, seemingly requires a top 4 berth. That said, a team finishing 5th or 6th with a solid run of wins on the way to finals could certainly cause an upset and bully their way to the prelims.

Will Essendon be in one of these positions in 2013? Possibly. Assuming that the injury load lessens to what may be considered a 'normal' level, I would expect us to be competitive against all teams and notch up 12-15 wins, but probably not go deep into September, with perhaps an elimination final win.

I would expect Essendon to be a force in 2014, though, displaying no difficulty with clear bottom 6 sides, comfortably winning by six goals against mid-table teams and grinding out more wins than losses against the better teams to establish and maintain a top 4 spot all season.

Short answer, I suppose, then, is 2014. That is when I expect we will be pushing for a flag. Hang in there, Fletch.

 

[Slattery_20]

You misunderstand me. I could make the same comparison with us and probably come up with a better result - that wouldn't necessarily make us a better team than you. Being competitive is not the same as winning - as we both know.

But the whole story of Essendon's season was clearly one of two halves. I just think it's lunacy to ignore that situation.
If we can keep a side together all year, keep matching the good sides all year, we'll develop a bit of belief & start to knock the odd one over, then more than the odd one, then hey presto you're a good side.

I think you're underestimating the Pies, Swans and Eagles. TBH.

Pies probably do have too many stars to be down for too long. Unless Cloke leaves. Then it's on for young & old.

 

[Slattery_20]

Sure - I'm not the one predicting it's likely to happen for my team though.

Is anyone claiming it's likely? I'm only pointing out that you & I really can't predict past the ends of our noses.

Guys who've missed a big chunk of the year, clearly, have a fair scope for improvement.

Any side that gets good years out of another 7-8 guys than they had the previous year will have instant depth & selection pressure, and find themselves a much much better side, and quite possibly catch a lot off-guard.

 

[The Goon]

Is anyone claiming it's likely? I'm only pointing out that you & I really can't predict past the ends of our noses.

Guys who've missed a big chunk of the year, clearly, have a fair scope for improvement.

Any side that gets good years out of another 7-8 guys than they had the previous year will have instant depth & selection pressure, and find themselves a much much better side, and quite possibly catch a lot off-guard.

My only question in this thread has been how to justify Essendon jumping 7 teams to get into the 4 to be in finals contention next year - which a number of people have claimed.

I would not be greatly surprised to see an injury free Essendon make the top 4 next year over an injury riddled Collingwood / WC / Adelaide / North. Carlton taking half a season to adjust to MM game plan and coming 7th. Tigers coming 9th . Cats / Saints dropping from contention. etc etc etc. For mine though it's a touch unlikely.

For comparison I'd guess the Tiger will sneak into the 8 next year. On all the key indicators we were a top 6 team this year - but lost the close ones. It's far more common that a team gradually evolves higher / lower, rather than jumping up / down the ladder. You're more likely than most having come 8th last year and a s**t year with injury this year, but I'm yet to be convinced that anything other than luck will take you from 6-8 to top 4.

*Italics are the quite reasonable (I feel) proviso I added.

 

[Slattery_20]

I would not be greatly surprised to see an injury free Essendon make the top 4 next year

Stop pumping us up, flog!

My only question in this thread has been how to justify Essendon jumping 7 teams to get into the 4 to be in finals contention next year

The answer is, as it is for any team to make a leap - we improve in a fair few areas of the field.

Be that new players, improved years from the same players, new roles for old players, or a new plan.

I don't think it's ridiculous to suggest there's a good 6-7 guys getting a game each week who we could, pretty easily, improve upon a great deal.

Nor that there's a bit of talent as yet unfulfilled, in probably a dozen guys on our list.

Some good luck & some good management to get from A to B; and we're away.

 

[The Goon]

Stop pumping us up, flog!

The answer is, as it is for any team to make a leap - we improve in a fair few areas of the field.

Be that new players, improved years from the same players, new roles for old players, or a new plan.

I don't think it's ridiculous to suggest there's a good 6-7 guys getting a game each week who we could, pretty easily, improve upon a great deal.

Nor that there's a bit of talent as yet unfulfilled, in probably a dozen guys on our list.

Some good luck & some good management to get from A to B; and we're away.

For crying out loud Slatts, I'm looking for irrational answers to quote back during the banter threads next year. Let me just try these on for size:

I don't think it's ridiculous to suggest there's a good 6-7 guys getting a game each week who we could, pretty easily, improve upon a great deal.

LOL

Nor that there's a bit of talent as yet unfulfilled, in probably a dozen guys on our list.

Some good luck & some good management to get from A to B; and we're away

>Insert laughing GIF<

Nope, it's just not working for me.











In all honesty though, thanks for providing a decent answer - even if I don't necessarily agree.

 

[The House]

The House

I already agreed. Like I said: injury aside you're a solid 6-8. What though will be the difference between that and top 4 (which is what I assert is required to be "in contention")?

To make a case for being in flag contention next year you have to make a case for being competitive with / better than the following teams:
Hawks
Crows
Swans
Pies
Eagles
Cats*
Anchors^
Cheap / gourmet meat pies (Roos)^
Saints*
Blues
Tigers^

* Means I think you will easily go past them next year.
^ Means I think you will be competing in the same sphere as these teams.

We could niggle about the details, but I still fail to see a window open for next year. The following year perhaps depending on how next year plays out.

You say we are 6-8, I say we are a 3-7 side.....which really means we're splitting hairs about one more win for the season (the difference between 6th and 3rd this year was 1 win).

And as we see it only takes a little bit of luck or lack thereof to change a side's fortunes dramatically - for eg when Tippet leaves Adelaide, and if a key player such as either Dangerfield (will be on 25 games for the season after Friday's game), Jacobs (24 games after Friday) or Walker (19 games after Friday) miss say 6 weeks with an injury, all of a sudden the side could quite conceivably slip to 6th or 7th. - especially if they don't get to play all the s**t sides twice and we get a reasonable crack at a few (we only played one of the bottom 5 twice and I'm pretty sure they played 4 of those 5 twice....i think!)

Pies lose Cloke and say Pendles misses 5-6 weeks, again, it's a very different side.

North and Sydney have had a brilliant run with injuries for example.....it can't just stay the same for every team in every year....the wheel always has and always will turn.

s**t like this does happen, and no one can attest to it at the end of 2012 more than an Essendon supporter!!

Personally I think Fremantle and Hawthorn will be a class above and finish top 2 if all things where magically equal next year (which they won't be)....I think we're every chance to finish above sides like Adelaide, Geelong, Roos, Saints, Blues, Tigers if we can get our player management/fitness and conditioning right....

.....from there you're literally talking one more win for a top 4 spot - as we saw this year and most other years....it can and almost certainly will happen to at least one side that no one predicts....might be us, might be someone else, but we shall see.

 

[The Goon]

You say we are 6-8, I say we are a 3-7 side.....which really means we're splitting hairs about one more win for the season (the difference between 6th and 3rd this year was 1 win).

And as we see it only takes a little bit of luck or lack thereof to change a side's fortunes dramatically - for eg when Tippet leaves Adelaide, and if a key player such as either Dangerfield (will be on 25 games for the season after Friday's game), Jacobs (24 games after Friday) or Walker (19 games after Friday) miss say 6 weeks with an injury, all of a sudden the side could quite conceivably slip to 6th or 7th. - especially if they don't get to play all the s**t sides twice and we get a reasonable crack at a few (we only played one of the bottom 5 twice and I'm pretty sure they played 4 of those 5 twice....i think!)

Pies lose Cloke and say Pendles misses 5-6 weeks, again, it's a very different side.

North and Sydney have had a brilliant run with injuries for example.....it can't just stay the same for every team in every year....the wheel always has and always will turn.

s**t like this does happen, and no one can attest to it at the end of 2012 more than an Essendon supporter!!

Personally I think Fremantle and Hawthorn will be a class above and finish top 2 if all things where magically equal next year (which they won't be)....I think we're every chance to finish above sides like Adelaide, Geelong, Roos, Saints, Blues, Tigers if we can get our player management/fitness and conditioning right....

.....from there you're literally talking one more win for a top 4 spot - as we saw this year and most other years....it can and almost certainly will happen to at least one side that no one predicts....might be us, might be someone else, but we shall see.

Dude / Dudess.

There is a huge difference between 6-8 and 3-7.

I honestly dont know where to begin with the rest of your comments.

Good luck for the season to come.

 

[The House]

Dude / Dudess.

There is a huge difference between 6-8 and 3-7.

I honestly dont know where to begin with the rest of your comments.

Good luck for the season to come.

Ah, yes mate/miss, you're right....there's such a big difference between the groupings of [3rd 4th 5th 6th and 7th] compared to [6th 7th and 8th] - you really nailed that one

Where to begin with the rest of my comments?? How 'bout actually answering my question rather than deflecting in what is an obvious attempt to avoid adressing the content - I repeat, if Essendon had a shocking run with injuries and performed something like 50% of maximum output, and next year have normal luck and are able to perform somewhere near 80-90% of their potential, that would indeed be scope for the improvement that you claim you are unable to invisage, no??

 

[The Goon]

Ah, yes mate/miss, you're right....there's such a big difference between the groupings of [3rd 4th 5th 6th and 7th] compared to [6th 7th and 8th] - you really nailed that one

Where to begin with the rest of my comments?? How 'bout actually answering my question rather than deflecting in what is an obvious attempt to avoid adressing the content - I repeat, if Essendon had a shocking run with injuries and performed something like 50% of maximum output, and next year have normal luck and are able to perform somewhere near 80-90% of their potential, that would indeed be scope for the improvement that you claim you are unable to invisage, no??

Firstly 3-7 means you think you are a chance of finishing ahead of at least 4 of Hawthorn, Collingwood, Swans, Eagles, Blues, Freo (+ potential random big improver). That's not even including Adelaide who (fortunate injury run and fixtures aside) will likely be up there again. 6-8 doesn't. So yes, to my mind that is a big difference.

As I said earlier I would not fall off my chair if the Dons did make top 4 (such is the evenness of the competition at the moment), but to do so IMHO you would need everything to go your way in terms of both yourself and other teams. There is nothing in the Don's exposed best form from the last 2 seasons that would convince me that (all things being equal) they have the team to consistently threaten top sides. You seem to acknowledge this as all of your discussion is about who may / may not have injuries or good / bad draws etc, rather than where the improvement is going to come from within the Bombers.

To my mind to use this as the basis for saying you think you will be pushing for a flag next year is very optimistic.

I'll stop polluting the thread with my comments now.

 

[Slattery_20]

There is nothing in the Don's exposed best form from the last 2 seasons that would convince me that (all things being equal) they have the team to consistently threaten top sides. You seem to acknowledge this as all of your discussion is about who may / may not have injuries or good / bad draws etc, rather than where the improvement is going to come from within the Bombers.

The improvement needs to come in 2 main areas.
The zone, as the plan B. That's coaching, and it's across the list - a fair few guys are quite OK, but a lot aren't. Specificalyl bottom end of the list.
When our better side's in, we're tight... lose players & we get raw kids in & we lose shape and leak goals.

Consistency in the middle. Another area where the injuries did hurt; big gap b/w Watson/Myers/Howlett/Hocking/Stanton/Zaha; & Watson/Hocking/Melksham/NLM/Heppell

The forward line works OK, the backline is worrying with the injuries but sound enough when the support's there, albeit lacking 1-2 more really good ball users.

Again, throwing this back to Richmond, this is the first year in ~5 years you've had good seasons out of a good core of players. And the first year in ~5 you've had a consistent year rather than blowouts after round 12.
Carlton's first year in 3-4 they've had a heap of injuries & first year they've sucked in 3-4 years as well.
Co-incidence?

Do I think we'll get close to a flag... no.
Do I think we should be playing a final and aiming for two, yes.

 

[The Goon]

The improvement needs to come in 2 main areas.
The zone, as the plan B. That's coaching, and it's across the list - a fair few guys are quite OK, but a lot aren't. Specificalyl bottom end of the list.
When our better side's in, we're tight... lose players & we get raw kids in & we lose shape and leak goals.

Consistency in the middle. Another area where the injuries did hurt; big gap b/w Watson/Myers/Howlett/Hocking/Stanton/Zaha; & Watson/Hocking/Melksham/NLM/Heppell

The forward line works OK, the backline is worrying with the injuries but sound enough when the support's there, albeit lacking 1-2 more really good ball users.

Again, throwing this back to Richmond, this is the first year in ~5 years you've had good seasons out of a good core of players. And the first year in ~5 you've had a consistent year rather than blowouts after round 12.
Carlton's first year in 3-4 they've had a heap of injuries & first year they've sucked in 3-4 years as well.
Co-incidence?

Do I think we'll get close to a flag... no.
Do I think we should be playing a final and aiming for two, yes.

First bolded: Not at all.

Second bolded: That's exactly what I'd have thought too, thus my question to those who thought the "premiership window" opened next year.

 

[The House]

Firstly 3-7 means you think you are a chance of finishing ahead of at least 4 of Hawthorn, Collingwood, Swans, Eagles, Blues, Freo (+ potential random big improver). That's not even including Adelaide who (fortunate injury run and fixtures aside) will likely be up there again. 6-8 doesn't. So yes, to my mind that is a big difference.

As I said earlier I would not fall off my chair if the Dons did make top 4 (such is the evenness of the competition at the moment), but to do so IMHO you would need everything to go your way in terms of both yourself and other teams. There is nothing in the Don's exposed best form from the last 2 seasons that would convince me that (all things being equal) they have the team to consistently threaten top sides. You seem to acknowledge this as all of your discussion is about who may / may not have injuries or good / bad draws etc, rather than where the improvement is going to come from within the Bombers.

To my mind to use this as the basis for saying you think you will be pushing for a flag next year is very optimistic.

I'll stop polluting the thread with my comments now.

Well done on not answering my question yet again - which was, if Essendon played at 50% or so of their capacity in the second half of the year, and can manage their players to be at somewhere like 80-90% of their capacity in the same phase next year, do you not see scope for significant improvement under those circumstances??

YOU are the one who said you saw no scope for improvement on 2012, I give you a clear example of ONE area that I think will provide obvious improvement, and you avoid answering it directly....

....I'm not saying that guarantees us a top 4 spot by the way (so don't make out that I am), I'm merely saying that could concievably put us in the same bracket of performance output to sides like Fremantle, Adelaide, Geelong, etc, and this year partly due to circumstances you'd have to admit at least one of those 3 sides is still as we speak "pushing" for a premiership.

Personally I'd say all 3 were "pushing" for a premiership this year, in that they all had legitimate claims to believe they'd make prelim final weekend.

 

[The Goon]

Well done on not answering my question yet again - which was, if Essendon played at 50% or so of their capacity in the second half of the year, and can manage their players to be at somewhere like 80-90% of their capacity in the same phase next year, do you not see scope for significant improvement under those circumstances??

YOU are the one who said you saw no scope for improvement on 2012, I give you a clear example of ONE area that I think will provide obvious improvement, and you avoid answering it directly....

No, I have asked where the improvement would come from. Further, I have consistently said that a better run of injury for the Bombers will naturally see them in the 6-8 bracket - an improvement on this year. I have no idea how you have missed that or why you think it does not acknowledge your point:

Like I said: injury aside you're a solid 6-8.

I have however consistently offered a counter point to the discussion:

What though will be the difference between that and top 4 (which is what I assert is required to be "in contention")?

Your only answer to date has been possible injuries to other teams, or better / harder draws. While Slatts' answers have been non-specific at least he understands what I am asking!

I am truly done here.

 

[Slattery_20]

Goon, if you can't see that there are a good dozen players on our list with a massive potential to improve, and probably improve the side, you're not looking very hard. And refusing to see that is, as you say, tail-chasing stuff.

Full year out of Ryder - instantly better team at the stoppages, and gives us the option of Hurley back as well.
O'Brien in - Monfries out.
Browne comes in for a half-back/wing spot - Baguley/Dyson out.
Kavanagh for a midfield spot - NLM out.
Myers into the middle - Lonergan out.
Davis in - pressure on Hocking's spot.
Pears back fit - another kid with big potential, low results.
Full year out of Hibberd - Heppell/Dempsey to a wing.
Joe D might even change the mix as well - much much further along than Vickery at the same age; but similar type of player who can pluck his 4-5 marks & kick his 2s & 3s without too much trouble.

It's impossible to say exactly if (or by how much) the side will be better; but all those guys could easily be upgrades IMHO.

 

[The House]

No, I have asked where the improvement would come from. Further, I have consistently said that a better run of injury for the Bombers will naturally see them in the 6-8 bracket - an improvement on this year. I have no idea how you have missed that or why you think it does not acknowledge your point:


I have however consistently offered a counter point to the discussion:






Your only answer to date has been possible injuries to other teams, or better / harder draws. While Slatts' answers have been non-specific at least he understands what I am asking!

I am truly done here.

Ah, no, my main point was reduced injuries to OUR team, not others - by mentioning other teams and possible injuries, i was merely poiting out that often gaining or slipping 2 or 3 ladder positions relies on luck more than you're realising when you ask "which teams will you pass" - i'm simply explaining that that is an impossible question to answer, yet it is still entirely possible that we'll pass some of the ones you think unlikely.

As per our improvement, I think it's pretty obvious that we were producing a bloody good standard of footy for half a season before injuries became ridiculous, particularly our overall defensive pressure - get that right and we're half way there.

The fact that I didn't delve into the natural development that i see coming from many on the list, or the possibilities of brining some new talent into the side via free agency or the trade period, does not equate to me being of the opinion that we need only improve in one area to push for a premiership.

 

[Essendonia]

Goon, if you can't see that there are a good dozen players on our list with a massive potential to improve, and probably improve the side, you're not looking very hard. And refusing to see that is, as you say, tail-chasing stuff.

Full year out of Ryder - instantly better team at the stoppages, and gives us the option of Hurley back as well.
O'Brien in - Monfries out.
Browne comes in for a half-back/wing spot - Baguley/Dyson out.
Kavanagh for a midfield spot - NLM out.
Myers into the middle - Lonergan out.
Davis in - pressure on Hocking's spot.
Pears back fit - another kid with big potential, low results.
Full year out of Hibberd - Heppell/Dempsey to a wing.
Joe D might even change the mix as well - much much further along than Vickery at the same age; but similar type of player who can pluck his 4-5 marks & kick his 2s & 3s without too much trouble.

It's impossible to say exactly if (or by how much) the side will be better; but all those guys could easily be upgrades IMHO.

Also, Gumbleton.

 

[Slattery_20]

The fact that I didn't delve into the natural development that i see coming from many on the list, or the possibilities of brining some new talent into the side via free agency or the trade period, does not equate to me being of the opinion that we need only improve in one area to push for a premiership.

Well put.

Goonie ain't all bad, though.

 

[The House]

Well put.

Goonie ain't all bad, though.

True - i'll remove the little crack I had at him in the last sentance! (even though it seemed he was intentionally missing my point ).

 

[The House]

Goon, if you can't see that there are a good dozen players on our list with a massive potential to improve, and probably improve the side, you're not looking very hard. And refusing to see that is, as you say, tail-chasing stuff.

Full year out of Ryder - instantly better team at the stoppages, and gives us the option of Hurley back as well.
O'Brien in - Monfries out.
Browne comes in for a half-back/wing spot - Baguley/Dyson out.
Kavanagh for a midfield spot - NLM out.
Myers into the middle - Lonergan out.
Davis in - pressure on Hocking's spot.
Pears back fit - another kid with big potential, low results.
Full year out of Hibberd - Heppell/Dempsey to a wing.
Joe D might even change the mix as well - much much further along than Vickery at the same age; but similar type of player who can pluck his 4-5 marks & kick his 2s & 3s without too much trouble.

It's impossible to say exactly if (or by how much) the side will be better; but all those guys could easily be upgrades IMHO.

I really like Monfries out, O'brien in - i really think he could add quite a bit to our forward set up (with a bit of rotating through the middle)....I look forward to seeing him and Browne with another 10-15 games under their belt.

Myers in the middle I think is key - if he can get a reasonable pre season and play 18+ games in the middle, that improves our engine more than many would think imo......further to that, if Watson, Stanton, Zaharakis and Myers all play 16+ games (as in play together most weeks) i may become a little firm. Would obviously help Howlett, Hocking and Heppell to play their best footy.

Agree with UmpMaggot - Gumby - it would legitimately seem that he has turned the corner (injury wise), and there's no doubting his talent....if he can stay well, provide a target/hit the packs and kick 35-45 it will be critical to our forward line.
And let's face it, on no preparation for 18 months and playing in a team that was being embarrassed in the midfield and on the scoreboard, he averaged a couple a week and provided said target....so there's logic behind the hope

Who knows, we may even get a dozen or more games out of Winders too.

Plenty of reason for optimism imo, but plenty of reason to temper that optimism and not get too excited...yet!

 

[Essendonia]

Never u r crap

Thank you for your input, though I do not think that it is plausible to contend that EFC will not again win a premiership, ever. Despite your compelling arguments to the contrary, I would expect that we will win a premiership again. In fact, that is probably as certain as the notion that CFC will lose Grand Final matches, forever.

 

[Essendonia]

I really like Monfries out, O'brien in - i really think he could add quite a bit to our forward set up (with a bit of rotating through the middle)....I look forward to seeing him and Browne with another 10-15 games under their belt.

Myers in the middle I think is key - if he can get a reasonable pre season and play 18+ games in the middle, that improves our engine more than many would think imo......further to that, if Watson, Stanton, Zaharakis and Myers all play 16+ games (as in play together most weeks) i may become a little firm. Would obviously help Howlett, Hocking and Heppell to play their best footy.

Agree with UmpMaggot - Gumby - it would legitimately seem that he has turned the corner (injury wise), and there's no doubting his talent....if he can stay well, provide a target/hit the packs and kick 35-45 it will be critical to our forward line.
And let's face it, on no preparation for 18 months and playing in a team that was being embarrassed in the midfield and on the scoreboard, he averaged a couple a week and provided said target....so there's logic behind the hope

Who knows, we may even get a dozen or more games out of Winders too.

Plenty of reason for optimism imo, but plenty of reason to temper that optimism and not get too excited...yet!

Whilst at times this year we have become concerned about the FWD and DEF areas, a fully fit Gumby and Winders certainly give you a lot more options up forward, along with what we have seen of O'Brien.

I look forward with great interest to 2013 and the solutions at the selection table that will be provided by TRB when they have too many blokes to choose from.

I'm hoping that Gumby emerges from the pre-season as a lock for 22 and is permitted a solid couple of months to show what he can do....(kick 50).

Going off the previous 'discourse' with Goon, you'd think it's pretty logical that keeping any constant 22 on the park would improve a side, let alone your best 22. I believe he conceded that much, but was sceptical of (a) how much that would improve the side, and/or (b) if any/many of the best 22 have a capacity to improve.

We've discussed in other threads the ratings we would attach to each player, and with most of ours not getting pass marks, there should be some serious upside. But, I'm preaching to the converted!

 

[Essendonia]

Nice work, mods. Streuth, some idiots about.

 

[Crow_Sting]

1 more year to adjust the game plan, 1 more pre season for the kids, 1 more season to gel as a group. 2014 i reckon you will be a contender.

 

[Fin ice Smuggler]

We'll win a flag 3 year after Dodoro and Co are demoted to recruiting Key position players, something they are good at and another recruting guru is bought in to get us a decent midfield, hell Brisbane's midfield will be better than ours in 3 years time along with Gold Coast, GWS, North etc etc.