Opinion When do YOU think we will be pushing for a flag?

[Slattery_20]

Nah. For them to be better than 2011 they just need the same injury run they had in '10 - when they finished 5th. Add to that some marginal improvement and they could easily make top 4. They will go down soonish - Judd, Simpson and Waite will be big losses, but they do have at least the makings of a window in the meantime.

- it's 2012.
2011 they had the final over in Perth.

 

[Kong]

The upside of Carlton is, in all seriousness, whether they can get a full season out of Waite.

I don't rate him, but they're clearly a better side with him in it.

 

[Lord Nicholson]

Sometimes.

 

[The Goon]

- it's 2012.
2011 they had the final over in Perth.

Awwwww come on, you know what I meant.

Never really rated him - even last year.
Good finisher, but doesn't do the big guy things particularly well.

Big guy. Pretty good in his third year, 4th year a write off due to injury. Could go either way but I'm pretty happy with what his shown to date. Due respect that you have a different opinion.

 

[Slattery_20]

Big guy. Pretty good in his third year, 4th year a write off due to injury. Could go either way but I'm pretty happy with what his shown to date. Due respect that you have a different opinion.

He has some talent (lovely boot, moves OK, good hands), but I'm not sure what sort of player he's going to be.
ie he's big but does he 'play' big, draw defenders, hit packs, physical presence, straighten you up etc.
I don't see what sort of a player he is/will be/where he fits in.

 

[The Goon]

He has some talent (lovely boot, moves OK, good hands), but I'm not sure what sort of player he's going to be.
ie he's big but does he 'play' big, draw defenders, hit packs, physical presence, straighten you up etc.
I don't see what sort of a player he is/will be/where he fits in.

He's currently a Forward / Relief Ruck with a longer term aim of being Starting Ruck / Resting Forward.

So considering he did reasonably well in his third year and had a write off this year would have to be tracking reasonably well towards these targets you would think.

 

[ZAAHAARAKIS!!!!!]

He's currently a Forward / Relief Ruck with a longer term aim of being Starting Ruck / Resting Forward.

So considering he did reasonably well in his third year and had a write off this year would have to be tracking reasonably well towards these targets you would think.

For what it's worth i've always thought he's more suited to play chf/relief ruck rather than first ruck.

 

[ant555]

Will come down to how FA goes and if we land the right fish to fast track it a bit, otherwise it could be 3 to 7 years away.

 

[The House]

The Goon (and others).....the question posed in the OP was when will we be PUSHING for a flag, not when will we win one.

Therefore you have to assess what pushing for a flag actually means - were West Coast or Freo "pushing" for a flag this year?

I'd say for sure the four sides playing this weekend will be pushing for a flag - although obviously only one side will actually win it.

For me I personally think any side that's alive in the last 3 weeks of September is in a position to push for a flag, depending on injuries/fitness of their own side and the sides in their half of the draw - I think the comp is at the point where we'll see more sides making a prelim or GF from 5th-85th, and we'll see it more frequently.

So in short, I think with a good pick up or two, and an injury run anything like what most sides had this year, Essendon will push for a flag next year ......having said that, chances are very likely that a side needs to push for a flag for at least 2-3 years before they finally achieve one.

 

[Lord Nicholson]

I'd argue that you have to be top 4 if you're seriously pushing for a flag.

And also that means being competitive in the prelim. Then you're a serious operator, not before.

 

[The House]

Put it this way, had Collingwood or Adelaide lost on the weekend (which was very possible midway through the last quarter of their respective games), and someone asked me in October if either of them were pushing for a flag at any stage this year, my answer would be yes.

Therefore considering Freo and WC were leading during the last quarter (and imo every bit as good as their opposition), I'd have to say they were pushing for a flag in that they were looking pretty darn good for a prelim spot and were every bit as much of a chance as 2 of our 4 prelim finalists.

So I'd say 6 sides were pushing for a flag this year.

 

[The Goon]

I simply asked who supporters thought you'd overtake (and how) given my presumption that you'd have to be top 4 to be really pushing for a flag (historically this is the case).

From an outside perspective (injury aside) you're solid 6-8, but I fail to see the improvement potential inherent in your current list that will take you beyond that (i.e. surpassing other teams) to flag contention. Sure you'll get young Daniher(?) this year, but every team gets a promising youngster.

 

[Burzum]

Between next year and eternity.

 

[The House]

The Goon I'm not sure how you can't see any improvement potential in our list - surely if we have a normal run with injury there's a huge improvement in output straight away.

Obviously moreso than just having better players on the field (which would be an improvement already), we'd also have some continuity and therefore improved cohesion with the defensive aspects of our set up in particular.

Surely most would agree that our current list was barely functioning at say 50% of our potential in the second half of the year.....therefore if we can even get our current list to function at say 80% or even better somewhere close to 90-95% of their capacity, that would be a huge improvement - would you not agree?

 

[Lord Nicholson]

With a pretty bad run of injuries we're 8th.

With a ridiculous run of injuries we're 11th.

What we are without any injuries is a complete and utter mystery. We can't even say that the early season form is a reflection, because we had 'em dropping from within 3 minutes of the opening bounce.

 

[The Goon]

The House

I already agreed. Like I said: injury aside you're a solid 6-8. What though will be the difference between that and top 4 (which is what I assert is required to be "in contention")?

To make a case for being in flag contention next year you have to make a case for being competitive with / better than the following teams:
Hawks
Crows
Swans
Pies
Eagles
Cats*
Anchors^
Cheap / gourmet meat pies (Roos)^
Saints*
Blues
Tigers^

* Means I think you will easily go past them next year.
^ Means I think you will be competing in the same sphere as these teams.

We could niggle about the details, but I still fail to see a window open for next year. The following year perhaps depending on how next year plays out.

 

[Slattery_20]

I simply asked who supporters thought you'd overtake (and how) given my presumption that you'd have to be top 4 to be really pushing for a flag (historically this is the case).

From an outside perspective (injury aside) you're solid 6-8, but I fail to see the improvement potential inherent in your current list that will take you beyond that (i.e. surpassing other teams) to flag contention. Sure you'll get young Daniher(?) this year, but every team gets a promising youngster.

Just briefly take two minutes, & go through our list.
How many guys would you say have had years anywhere near to what they should be producing? Through form, injury or whatever.

Only about 6 blokes IMHO.
Richmond would have been happy with probably 12 guys.

Decent years from the majority of our starting midfield (rather than 2 of the first 7-8, like this year), and a few more kids (Browne & Kavanagh, maybe Davis) pushing through, and our weakest point gets a lot stronger.

Not *that* hard to understand, really.


At our best, this year, we're a kick off the Pies, a kick off the Swans, a kick off the Crows and they're supposedly challenging.
And I'm darned sure both Kavanagh & Browne will soon be in our best side, and more to the point improve it.

 

[Slattery_20]

To make a case for being in flag contention next year you have to make a case for being competitive with / better than the following teams:
Hawks
Crows
Swans
Pies
Eagles
Cats*
Anchors^
Cheap / gourmet meat pies (Roos)^
Saints*
Blues
Tigers^

* Means I think you will easily go past them next year.
^ Means I think you will be competing in the same sphere as these teams.

We could niggle about the details, but I still fail to see a window open for next year. The following year perhaps depending on how next year plays out.

Bolded are the sides we didn't compete with this year.
Our best is a lot more competitive than you're making out.

 

[Slattery_20]

We could niggle about the details, but I still fail to see a window open for next year. The following year perhaps depending on how next year plays out.

One side's standing a clear head above the others. IMHO.

Pies/Swans/Crows - meh.

 

[The Goon]

Just briefly take two minutes, & go through our list.
How many guys would you say have had years anywhere near to what they should be producing? Through form, injury or whatever.

Only about 6 blokes IMHO.
Richmond would have been happy with probably 12 guys.

Decent years from the majority of our starting midfield (rather than 2 of the first 7-8, like this year), and a few more kids (Browne & Kavanagh, maybe Davis) pushing through, and our weakest point gets a lot stronger.

Not *that* hard to understand, really

Glad we can quote again.

Honestly Slatts the smart arse bit is not like you at all, I was asking a genuine question.

Thanks for providing the first actual answer to my initial question, although I don't know why you referenced the Tigers - the question was who would you overtake, not who would overtake you.

 

[The Goon]

Bolded are the sides we didn't compete with this year.
Our best is a lot more competitive than you're making out.

You misunderstand me. I could make the same comparison with us and probably come up with a better result - that wouldn't necessarily make us a better team than you. Being competitive is not the same as winning - as we both know.

One side's standing a clear head above the others. IMHO.

Pies/Swans/Crows - meh.

I think you're underestimating the Pies, Swans and Eagles. TBH.

 

[Slattery_20]

If someone told you prior to this year that the 15th placed side would lose two of their best & brightest young stars,
then - on the back of an improved year from a 28yo 5'3" tasmanian, a young ruckman, a a small forward who doesn't kick goals, a 27yo journeyman half-back, two 21yo midfielders, an inconsistent 21yo tall and a kid who'd played 9 games - improve to top 4

you would've laughed at me.
And quite rightly.


But that's what's just happened.
They play a prelim this week.

It's a funny game, football - and there's not as much separating 5th from 15th as some like to think.

 

[ZAAHAARAKIS!!!!!]

Bolded are the sides we didn't compete with this year.
Our best is a lot more competitive than you're making out.

And 2 of the bolded we've beaten when they were better than they are currently.

A massive problem for us is the difference between best and worst, close that gap a bit and we are firmly in business.

 

[The Goon]

If someone told you prior to this year that the 15th placed side would lose two of their best & brightest young stars,
then - on the back of an improved year from a 28yo 5'3" tasmanian, a young ruckman, a a small forward who doesn't kick goals, a 27yo journeyman half-back, two 21yo midfielders, an inconsistent 21yo tall and a kid who'd played 9 games - improve to top 4

you would've laughed at me.
And quite rightly.


But that's what's just happened.
They play a prelim this week.

It's a funny game, football - and there's not as much separating 5th from 15th as some like to think.

Sure - I'm not the one predicting it's likely to happen for my team though.

 

[Slattery_20]

Glad we can quote again.

Honestly Slatts the smart arse bit is not like you at all, I was asking a genuine question.

Thanks for providing the first actual answer to my initial question, although I don't know why you referenced the Tigers - the question was who would you overtake, not who would overtake you.

Just throwing it out there as a comparison.
North probably 10 guys who you'd say had pretty good years.
Hawks, 12-15. Crows 12-15. Hell even Brisbane had probably 10 guys they'd be really happy with.
Cats, 6-7 (a lot were kids who weren't up to full years).
etc.