Prediction Where will we finish in 2019? (North supporters only)

[Snake_Baker]

Rate our chances for 2019.

This includes you too Zondor, ya fencesitter!

Poll is open for the next 5 months.

 

[Snake_Baker]

GR's all in!

 

[Firestarter]

Low end of 9-12.

 

[Tectonic]

Going with 5-8th but I honestly would be expecting top 4 if we can extract the full potential from the whole group simultaneously.

 

[Grogg]

5-8 should be a given.

Top four should be expected.

 

[The Nostradamus]

5-8 or better otherwise sack brad scott

 

[muttley45]

5th seems like a fair result after Rd 23.

 

[Snake_Baker]

My long range ladder

 

[Snake_Baker]

Bottom 5.

Gold Coast to go the season winless

 

[kangaspurs]

For me, finals is the minimum expectation in 2019. Given our recruiting and Scott's contract situation I'm not sure anything less is acceptable.

 

[The Filth Wizard]

The draw and other clubs improving also puts us as a 6-9 club IMO, any lower would be hugely disappointing, any higher obviously excellent.

While we all dream of a premiership the real A grade will be for us making the finals and winning one - then not being knocked out in a belting.

 

[the big lebowski]

9th

 

[shimaburnsgrieg]

it’s our 150th year, 20th anniversary since our last gf appearance and the 10th year of the Scott regime - the coach and playing group should be busting their ass to finish top 4.

If we can’t achieve that you would have to question whether this group of players and coaching staff have the inner drive and ability to achieve ultimate success.

 

[Only Forwards]

Top 4 or some serious consideration needs to be given to letting Brad go.

A team ravaged by injury with a coach I don't really rate was a kick away from a flag.

Top 4 or we rule a line and say 10 years is enough.

 

[Passmore]

Given a fair run with injuries top 6 before finals should be expected.

It’s a tough draw, but we control our destiny and we play a shit load of big games. Players and supporters should be up and about.

 

[Egga]

Top 4 or some serious consideration needs to be given to letting Brad go.

A team ravaged by injury with a coach I don't really rate was a kick away from a flag.

If a team ravaged by injury and a coach you don't rate was a kick from a flag it can only prove one of two things; either (a) the coach does not make a big difference to reaching a Grand Final; or (b) you're acknowledging that you're not a great judge of coaches.

Not sure which it is, but in either case, you might want to rethink your first sentence.

 

[Egga]

Updated for the draw and Gaffgate.....

I think we will finish 6th in 2019

2018 Finish: 12 wins = 9th
Adjust for More Difficult Draw in 2019: -2 wins*
Adjust for Injuries: +0**
Adjust for 'Organic Development': +0***
Adjust for Polec, Hall, Pittard & Tyson: +4 wins****
Adjust for "We should have beaten Gold Coast" & other tales of woe: +0*****

2019 finish: 14 wins: 6th (out of the top by 1 game and percentage) - with a good run of injuries we could win another two games and finish second. With a bad run of injuries we could drop a couple of games and finish 10th.

*Draw:
In 2018, we had one of the easiest draws in the league, playing 8 games against the bottom 5 easy beats and won them all other than round 1.
Against the teams above the bottom 5, we won 36% of games.
With these percentages and an even distribution of matches against top middle and bottom sides, we would have won 1.2 fewer games. I'm anticipating Brisbane leaving the easy beats category in 2019. Unfortunately, they are the only bottom side we play twice.

Injuries
This year our best 22 players missed a total of 97 games through injury and suspension, at an average of 4.4 players missing per match. The average for the league in round 21 was 4.5. Our 7 most important players (Cunnington, Higgins, Tarrant, Brown, Waite, Jacobs, Goldstein) missed a total of 21 games between them, at an average of 1.0. The average across all AFL clubs in round 22 was also 1.0. You can argue at the margin with some of this stuff, but our injury run this year, despite the miracle of Kangatech, has been about league average.

***Organic Development
Yes, we can expect improvement from our great yoof, with Ahern, Simpkin, LDU, Walker, Zurhaar, McKay, Larkey all under the age of 22. But:
1. It is hard to see more than 1 or 2 of these guys at best consistently and materially impacting games next year
2. We also have some of our most important players over the age of 30 - Tarrant, Thompson, Goldstein, Higgins, who could all be on a slow (or rapid) decline and/ or more prone to injury. Plus we lose Waite.
3. Opinions about 'organic development' are proven to be dreadful predictors of future performance. 2018 is a great example, where many of the so called 'experts' were expecting Carlton, St Kilda and Brisbane to rise up the ladder and just many expected Hawthorn and Sydney to fall off the cliff. The vast majority of 'organic' predictions fail to materialise.

****Adjust for Polec, Hall, Pittard & Tyson
I had originally expected Gaff and Polec. Now, in addition to Polec we have Hall, Pittard and Tyson who add more depth but certainly less class than Gaff. So how much are these four new guys worth? I still think at least 2 goals. In 2018, we lost 4 games by 10 points or less. The only other games that we were even close to winning were Gold Coast in round 1 where we lost by 16 points and Essendon in round 15 where we lost by 17 points (sorry to bring those up). In all our other losses we were miles off it. So I can see our new recruits getting us over the line in 4 additional games.

*****"We should have beaten Gold Coast" etc. Yes, we should have. But the Eagles will say they should have beaten us and so would the Swans, etc. Always two sides to this coin.[/QUOTE]

 

[Snake_Baker]

Good work.

I reckon you can factor in more for organic growth from LDU, Walker, Simpkin & Ahern

 

[Egga]

Good work.

I reckon you can factor in more for organic growth from LDU, Walker, Simpkin & Ahern

I hope you're right. If I was a betting man, I'd bet on:
Ahern - yes
Simpkin - yes
Walker - 2nd year blues
LDU - like Cunners, I think will take another couple of years

But I could just as easily be wrong about the last two. If I am, then top 4 beckons.

 

[Waussie]

I rate Walker to come out firing
LDU. Should step up towards the middle of the year.
Simpkin to add some more class to his game
Ahern best come back lighter and fitter
Anderson will step up
Larkey should back up last year and be bigger
Xerri needs some exposure in 1's
Hayden should come out firing and get an opportunity mid season.
McKay hopefully will get opportunities this year.
Looking ok I reckon

 

[Reagan Smash]

Hello ninthness my old friend

 

[muttley45]

I rate Walker to come out firing
LDU. Should step up towards the middle of the year.
Simpkin to add some more class to his game
Ahern best come back lighter and fitter
Anderson will step up
Larkey should back up last year and be bigger
Xerri needs some exposure in 1's
Hayden should come out firing and get an opportunity mid season.
McKay hopefully will get opportunities this year.
Looking ok I reckon

Zurhaar and Vickers-Willis another couple to make an impact next year too

 

[MinistryOfMajak]

We've failed miserably if we aren't playing finals next year.

Sent from my SM-G955F using Tapatalk

 

[shinboner magic]

Think 5-8 before finals then who knows.

Put our best team on the park and we can take on anyone anywhere.

Willy to explode (pun intended) - rising star level. He’ll make Stevenson 2018 year look like Hrovats 2018.

Our major worry is finding a waite replacement

 

[darko]

7th or 8th