Prediction Where will we finish this year?

[STPer18]

Just so you guys know am a man of my word, I haven't forgotten this statement of mine and I AM PREPARED TO GO NUUUDE!!!

Let's not do anything stupid OK?

 

[Jimmy Willis Jawline]

or that other team in 2008 - they looked unbeatable

It will forever be 'too soon' for comments like that..

 

[JackFlash]

It's very hard to see them stuff up from here, although Essendon always play well against us...if they handle the Dons this week then Top 2 is a certainty!

 

[PremierCatAttack]

It will forever be 'too soon' for comments like that..

I hear you friend but those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. If we come out and blitz in the first week of finals on the MCG I will believe, I sort of believe now, but if nothing else its bloody good fun

 

[fpm84]

I am very bullish about our chances this year as well. We genuinely seem to be as good a shot as any other team going around. And there aren't actually that many clubs who I think are shaping to be real contenders anyway.

Having said that, though, we're only a couple of season-ending injuries to key players away from being back in the pack. And that's not even accounting for becoming 'the hunted' again. And also needing to maintain the rage throughout a long season.

And then there's the small matter of several 'David Pittman' style performances in recent finals to overcome as well.

All of which leaves me very comfortable with the trite sign-off that Gaz employed in his after-match interview on the weekend...'we're just going to take it one week at a time.'

Definitely agree with all of this!

I think we can all sense that there's just a different 'vibe' this season. Every player is putting in. Every player is committed to pressuring and harassing the opposition, even those that have been maligned for avoiding it in the past (like Guthrie and Ablett). Every player looks happy.

It's remarkable to think that six games in, not a single player has warranted being omitted from the team due to poor performance. We are lucky enough to have a short-ish injury list at the moment but we also have serious competition for spots and a number of players out of the team who have previously performed at AFL level (Henderson, Bews, S. Selwood, Cockatoo, Narkle, Smith among them). Depth creates competition and players who have cruised in the past, knowing their spot in the 22 is safe, are playing with urgency.

There is a long, long way to go and as you say, anything can happen. I almost don't want to say it in case things go pear-shaped but the 'vibe' feels similar to Richmond 2017 and West Coast 2018 - teams that had been around the mark and underperformed in finals making a few tweaks, introducing some exciting kids and realising their potential.

As it stands, I think this is our best premiership shot since 2013 and I cannot fault anything from our first six rounds - from team selection to gameplan to attitude and intensity.

Now, to put the lid firmly back on.

 

[Nickoo]

As my favourite poster here (due to your keen insight and usually balanced viewpoint), I am genuinely shocked to see you writing this. You are clearly feeling supremely confident.

I am very bullish about our chances this year as well. We genuinely seem to be as good a shot as any other team going around. And there aren't actually that many clubs who I think are shaping to be real contenders anyway.

Having said that, though, we're only a couple of season-ending injuries to key players away from being back in the pack. And that's not even accounting for becoming 'the hunted' again. And also needing to maintain the rage throughout a long season.

And then there's the small matter of several 'David Pittman' style performances in recent finals to overcome as well.

All of which leaves me very comfortable with the trite sign-off that Gaz employed in his after-match interview on the weekend...'we're just going to take it one week at a time.'

Well according to the media the favourite for the flag hasn’t appeared yet. Cats are in there but freo looking good. Another test this week against a team we’ve struggled against in recent years.

Each week it’s a test to not drink the bath water. Touhey comments in podcast of it being infectious the style of play. Did anyone see how glum Chris Scott looked in the box? Maybe he’s worried we’ll get carried away with ourselves. Only one game ahead of freo.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

 

[Nickoo]

I hear you friend but those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. If we come out and blitz in the first week of finals on the MCG I will believe, I sort of believe now, but if nothing else its bloody good fun

Adel blitzed is in the PF. Still lost. ‘08 finals campaign was pretty good also.

Won’t ever feel safe unless it’s like ‘07.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

 

[candiehappy]

Won’t ever feel safe unless it’s like ‘07.

and it's 3/4 time in the GF ......

 

[Nickoo]

and it's 3/4 time in the GF ......

I still wouldn’t I tell you. Didn’t relax because I’ve seen it before too often. That weagles game in ‘06 at Geelong just indicative.

Bombers will come at us this weekend.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

 

[fpm84]

6-1 start and the best percentage in the league sees the Squiggle ladder predictor give us a 54% chance of winning the minor premiership, a 76% chance of finishing top two and a 95% chance of finishing top four.

 

[Max Milburn]

6-1 start and the best percentage in the league sees the Squiggle ladder predictor give us a 54% chance of winning the minor premiership, a 76% chance of finishing top two and a 95% chance of finishing top four.


View attachment 668449

Hawthorn 12th is almost as good.

 

[iameviljez]

It's very hard to see them stuff up from here, although Essendon always play well against us...if they handle the Dons this week then Top 2 is a certainty!

I wouldn't go that far. I'd say top four is probably locked in at this point, with this draw ahead of us - but there is a very, very long way to go. We've had a charmed run with injury until this week, and most importantly have managed to keep Stanley and Hawkins on the park.

I'd be very hesitant about penciling in top-two, because there's a pretty clear top three sides emerging at the moment. This year reminds me a lot of 2013, when Hawthorn, Freo and us were clearly streets ahead of everyone else - and in the end, that flag was decided by our injuries and Gunston's ability to kick straight.

 

[Mad_Hatter]

6-1 start and the best percentage in the league sees the Squiggle ladder predictor give us a 54% chance of winning the minor premiership, a 76% chance of finishing top two and a 95% chance of finishing top four.


View attachment 668449

Squiggle has us losing to the pies in the GF...
I'd rather miss finals altogether!

 

[King Cold]

To this stage of the season we're tracking better than what I expected before the season started, as I had us being 5-2 after the tough opening 7 rounds and I'm known for being very optimistic in regards to our fortunes.

Those who predicted us to miss the top 8 this year are looking like fools.

 

[4quarter_cat]

That's me King Cold. I had us finishing about 10th. Egg and my face are in alignment.

And I couldn't be happier about it.

 

[Whiskers]

To this stage of the season we're tracking better than what I expected before the season started, as I had us being 5-2 after the tough opening 7 rounds and I'm known for being very optimistic in regards to our fortunes.

Those who predicted us to miss the top 8 this year are looking like fools.

I’m with you on this, this year was always going to be better and if we started well it would mean a high finish. I thought even if we went 0-3 we would still make it with our draw.

My confidence isn’t as high come finals as I just know anything can happen on the day.
However no one should be surprised we are a good team considering we had the 2nd best % in the league last year. Went 2-7 in close games and had a far easier fixture.
Also people thought our bottom 4-6 players were the problem but that was obviously an easy fix.
Did people think we couldn’t find players better than Murdoch, Parsons, ZGuthrie? O’Connor has surprised me with his development but we got Rohan and Dahlhaus in.
Dangerfield was injured last year and Ablett’s poor form was grossly exaggerated.
We drafted Clark and knew we had promising youngsters in the VFL.

How is our improvement a surprise to anyone?

 

[goyoucatters]

I’m with you on this, this year was always going to be better and if we started well it would mean a high finish. I thought even if we went 0-3 we would still make it with our draw.

My confidence isn’t as high come finals as I just know anything can happen on the day.
However no one should be surprised we are a good team considering we had the 2nd best % in the league last year. Went 2-7 in close games and had a far easier fixture.
Also people thought our bottom 4-6 players were the problem but that was obviously an easy fix.
Did people think we couldn’t find players better than Murdoch, Parsons, ZGuthrie? O’Connor has surprised me with his development but we got Rohan and Dahlhaus in.
Dangerfield was injured last year and Ablett’s poor form was grossly exaggerated.
We drafted Clark and knew we had promising youngsters in the VFL.

How is our improvement a surprise to anyone?

Don't disagree with the vast majority of this. And I share your concern about the unknown of what we will produce when finals roll around.

But I would have to say the magnitude of our improvement has been a real surprise for me. I could see how we could/should be better.

But this much better? Not so much.

The whole has again become greater than the sum of the parts. And we are winning games when not playing particularly well. Both of those realities were hallmarks of our last truly successful side.

Very long way to go, I know. But the signs to suggest that we are actually significantly better (rather than somewhat improved) are striking at this point.

 

[Strange Cat]

Big call I know ...but hopefully top 4 or top 2 if we continue our form

Fingers crosssd

 

[Mad_Hatter]

Big call I know ...but hopefully top 4 or top 2 if we continue our form

Fingers crosssd

After our start anything short of top 2 is a failure IMO.

 

[Biggy_Boy]

After our start anything short of top 2 is a failure IMO.

It's not ladder position from which we should measure success or failure.

 

[Farmer2Goggin]

It's not ladder position from which we should measure success or failure.

Beg to differ - ladder position is a solid lead indicator of your flag chances , much better chance finishing top 4 rather than 8th for instance.
Ultimate measure of success is , of course the silverware - hard to win that from 10th

 

[fpm84]

88% likelihood of top 2 according to Squiggle ladder predictor.

 

[Ricketz]

Don't disagree with the vast majority of this. And I share your concern about the unknown of what we will produce when finals roll around.

But I would have to say the magnitude of our improvement has been a real surprise for me. I could see how we could/should be better.

But this much better? Not so much.

The whole has again become greater than the sum of the parts. And we are winning games when not playing particularly well. Both of those realities were hallmarks of our last truly successful side.

Very long way to go, I know. But the signs to suggest that we are actually significantly better (rather than somewhat improved) are striking at this point.

This. I was bullish and expected finals minimum, but top four was my hope. But we are currently playing a brand that is a step ahead, and the level of improvement is beyond my expectations too.

The sum of the parts can now trust the other parts to know where to be and what to do. That's what makes it greater as a whole. It takes a whole load of thinking out and let's the footy happen.

 

[goyoucatters]

This. I was bullish and expected finals minimum, but top four was my hope. But we are currently playing a brand that is a step ahead, and the level of improvement is beyond my expectations too.

The sum of the parts can now trust the other parts to know where to be and what to do. That's what makes it greater as a whole. It takes a whole load of thinking out and let's the footy happen.

Judd has been an advocate for this concept of 'cohesion factor' in his analysis in recent times. And I am becoming a believer as well.

Our approach this year to seek to retain an established line-up wherever possible should pay strong dividends in improved cohesion by the end of the season. As you say, less thinking and more instinctive footy, based on knowing what patterns your teammate will run and where to deliver the footy as a result.

Our EF debacle was full of many disastrous moments. And a number of them were evidence that Geelong players couldn't even be confident in what their teammates were planning to do with the football when they got it. Some of that has to be due to the inability of the club in recent years to seek to settle on a preferred line-up and back it in for weeks at a time through the season.

Changing that this year will already be a good start on improving our chances in finals. And the fact the list is demonstrably more capable as a group certainly can't hurt either.

 

[Ricketz]

Judd has been an advocate for this concept of 'cohesion factor' in his analysis in recent times. And I am becoming a believer as well.

Our approach this year to seek to retain an established line-up wherever possible should pay strong dividends in improved cohesion by the end of the season. As you say, less thinking and more instinctive footy, based on knowing what patterns your teammate will run and where to deliver the footy as a result.

Our EF debacle was full of many disastrous moments. And a number of them were evidence that Geelong players couldn't even be confident in what their teammates were planning to do with the football when they got it. Some of that has to be due to the inability of the club in recent years to seek to settle on a preferred line-up and back it in for weeks at a time through the season.

Changing that this year will already be a good start on improving our chances in finals. And the fact the list is demonstrably more capable as a group certainly can't hurt either.

I am a big fan. It requires really good training and really consistent stability in the team structure.

Tick, tick. Both things we seem to have achieved this year.