Which clubs are in the most trouble age profile wise? - 2025 edition

[Trav 20]

What do they use to define a ‘deep’ draft?

The people that have made a living recruiting and coaching for 30 years have said it's a deep draft.

I take this to mean that a player taken at pick 35 might have gone pick 15-20 in (some) other years.

That said, I don't necessarily subscribe to the view that the top end talent isn't as good as recent years. It may not be, but we won't really know for a decade.

 

[Trav 20]

I think the drop off at my team the Dogs could be coming quickly and could be brutal.

Don't take any notice of a practice match.

In 2021 Melbourne were thrashed by the Dogs and the headlines were suggesting it may be Goodwin's last year. We know what happened.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Well that's the key right there.

I hate the view when players turn 30, they instantly decline as duds.

Big difference between early 30s and mid 30s is the key. Id say good durable players generally can last to about 32-33 before they start a significant decline.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

*high picks.

You have no idea what their quality is.

To the contrary, it is well known that players taken at higher picks play more games(because they are better) on average than players taken at lower picks.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Big difference between early 30s and mid 30s is the key. Id say good durable players generally can last to about 32-33 before they start a significant decline.

This is correct, so at 30, they haven't got too many years left before that decline is likely.

 

[Mr Meow]

This is correct, so at 30, they haven't got too many years left before that decline is likely.

What about at 26?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

What about at 26?

Second half of their careers with no significant upside left.

 

[Mr Meow]

Second half of their careers with no significant upside left.

Dangerfield turned 26 in 2016 and went on to have the best 5 seasons of his career.

Same with Blicavs in 2017.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Dangerfield turned 26 in 2016 and went on to have the best 5 seasons of his career.

Same with Blicavs in 2017.

Yep getting humiliated in final after final....by guess who?

 

[Mr Meow]

Yep getting humiliated in final after final....by guess who?

You said there was no upside for 26 year olds. Looks like you've folded quickly on yet another stupid claim.

Martin also had his best 4 years as a 26-29 year old.

Hawkins another example.

Mitch Duncan another.

Cam Guthrie another.

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

I voted Eagles but im very surprised at how few votes Demons have

Gawn/May at 32 are cornerstones of the team and integral to everything. Ontop of that neither have anything close to a replacement waiting. Once those 2 go it will be a bit of a steady downward spiral

 

[Trav 20]

I voted Eagles but im very surprised at how few votes Demons have

Gawn/May at 32 are cornerstones of the team and integral to everything. Ontop of that neither have anything close to a replacement waiting. Once those 2 go it will be a bit of a steady downward spiral

Pickett, Rivers, Turner, Bowey, Sharp, Howes, van Rooyen, McVee, Windsor, Langford, Lindsay

Those 11 players are in most Melbourne supporters best 22. Plus there's Tholstrup, Woewodin, Moniz-Wakefield, Kynan Brown, and maybe Jefferson.

They're all 23 and under.

When half your likely best side is 23 and under I don't really think you have much of an age problem.

Also, having watched Gawn in the intraclub on Friday, and May last night, I don't think they're about to fall off a cliff.

 

[GoldbergsGold]

Adelaide Crows are in a really bad spot, where their older players over 30 or close to 30 are the ones with the most disposals/clearances, essentially carrying their midfield. The younger players aren't stepping up in their midfield, playing second fiddle to cooked midfielders. I think Crows fans overrate the "potential" when they have yet to do the most work there. Even that scratch match the other day that Crows fans want to cite, Laird and Crouch who are 30+ or near 30 still dominate the disposal count and clearance count was dominated by some other blokes nearing 30 for them. Not a good recipe for real matches having your cooked midfielders do most of the work there. They haven't made finals in 7 seasons, they're going to be perpetually treading water with that stagnant midfield.

 

[Fadge]

Adelaide Crows are in a really bad spot, where their older players over 30 or close to 30 are the ones with the most disposals/clearances, essentially carrying their midfield. The younger players aren't stepping up in their midfield, playing second fiddle to cooked midfielders. I think Crows fans overrate the "potential" when they have yet to do the most work there. Even that scratch match the other day that Crows fans want to cite, Laird and Crouch who are 30+ or near 30 still dominate the disposal count and clearance count was dominated by some other blokes nearing 30 for them. Not a good recipe for real matches having your cooked midfielders do most of the work there. They haven't made finals in 7 seasons, they're going to be perpetually treading water with that stagnant midfield.

You're not familiar with the names 'Rankine' and 'Soligo'?

 

[TheUnicorn]

Essendon with 0 votes.

Best list in the league confirmed!

 

[Dtennent94]

Pickett, Rivers, Turner, Bowey, Sharp, Howes, van Rooyen, McVee, Windsor, Langford, Lindsay

Those 11 players are in most Melbourne supporters best 22. Plus there's Tholstrup, Woewodin, Moniz-Wakefield, Kynan Brown, and maybe Jefferson.

The only good player amongst this list is about to leave…

Looks more dire than Collingwood.

 

[Fadge]

The only good player amongst this list is about to leave…

Looks more dire than Collingwood.

Nah.

Assuming you're referring to Pickett....

Van Rooyen, Windsor, McVee can play, and we'll see about the highly rated players yet to debut - Langford and Lindsay.

 

[carlton_99]

The only good player amongst this list is about to leave…

Looks more dire than Collingwood.

Rivers, van Rooyen, Pickett and McVee at a minimum all look like they are going to be A-grade players at the level. And all four are already contributing at a high level for the Dees. And that's before considering their recent draft picks like Windsor, Langford, Lindsay etc.

 

[Dtennent94]

Rivers, van Rooyen, Pickett and McVee at a minimum all look like they are going to be A-grade players at the level. And all four are already contributing at a high level for the Dees. And that's before considering their recent draft picks like Windsor, Langford, Lindsay etc.

Pickett is gone and A grade is a stretch for the others.

 

[Crankyhawk]

We had a coach named Horse and then a coach named Cox. We clearrly have an unusual strategy in selecting our coach since there only seems to be one criteria in what they need to become the coach for the Swans.

Next coach robin Nahas then?

 

[Crankyhawk]

To the contrary, it is well known that players taken at higher picks play more games(because they are better) on average than players taken at lower picks.

Except pick bloody 6

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Except pick bloody 6

Hawthorn Hawks Football Club just has to get over Beau Dowler, Mitch Thorp & Denver Grainger-Barras. They make Reecey Conca look like Dustin Martin.

 

[Crankyhawk]

Hawthorn Hawks Football Club just has to get over Beau Dowler, Mitch Thorp & Denver Grainger-Barras. They make Reecey Conca look like Dustin Martin.

I think there is some stat out there showing how pick 6 underperforms (though for fairness would want to remove the 3 hawks picks to do analysis ie could just be us that suck with 6)

Edit old (2018) article looking at pick 6

Six and out: The history of footy's 'cursed' draft pick

Pick No.6 has seen more than its share of draft flops - but things are finally looking up

www.afl.com.au

And we got dgb after that which will further reduce the average, and we also broke one of the more successful pick 6 (wingard) when to brought him to hawks

 

[CCurnow3picks]

They’re not called Oldiewood for nothing!

 

[sexyhunk]

Hawthorn Hawks Football Club just has to get over Beau Dowler, Mitch Thorp & Denver Grainger-Barras. They make Reecey Conca look like Dustin Martin.

draft picks are not exact science, sometimes work out sometimes doesnt. For example, some idiot picked up some random player and left them Lance Franklyn at their pick.