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Opinion Who is your first five?

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CrowToon

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Picked up a discarded note the other night on the cleanup at HQ. It read:

1. Rory Sloane
2. ROB
3. Matt Crouch
4. Taylor Walker
5. Elliott Himmelberg

Given it is too much to hope this was dropped by our list management team I have to assume it was our selection committee's first five on the teamsheet no questions asked.

So it got me thinking, who is my five? I want to stress it doesn't need to be our five best, but who is our most important to the team (assume we are trying to win)?

For me:

1. Jordan Dawson
2. Rory Laird
3. Josh Rachele
4. Tex Walker
5. Jordan Butts

Who you got?
 
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At the moment.

Walker
Laird
Dawson
Butts
Smith

Notes:
Rachele close (Oppositions are already swapping superior defenders onto him to try to shut him down) but unproven compared to this 5.
Doedee is probably the better defender overall compared to Butts. But Butts is currently not replaceable and '1v1 defending' is to Doedee what 'breaking a tag' is to Sloane.
 
If the focus is on us trying to win I would go

Dawson
Rachele
Keays
Laird
Walker

If the focus is on the future
Dawson
Rachele
Butts
Thilthorpe
Gollant

But I also consider Doedee as being critical for our future along with a few other youngsters like Berry and Schoenberg
 
1. Dawson (our classiest player under 26, actually our classiest player full-stop)
2. Rachele (our most consistently game-breaking prospect)
3. Walker (need an experienced forward pillar to aid our other younger forwards in their development)
4. Keays (our best mid IMO)
5. Laird (our 2nd best mid, only a smidgen behind Keays)

Butts and Doedee not far off, either. I’d have those 7 as our most important by a fair way, at this point
 

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www.afl.com.au

Brownlow Predictor: Who is the early leader after round six?

There's a surprise early leader in the race for the Brownlow Medal, according to our predictor
www.afl.com.au www.afl.com.au

COULD we have a shock early Brownlow Medal leader?

After six games so far this season, Adelaide midfielder Ben Keays joins exciting Fremantle youngster Andrew Brayshaw in taking a share of the lead in AFL.com.au's Brownlow Predictor.

Keays, once delisted by the Lions before finding a home at the Crows on a rookie deal, sits alongside Brayshaw with 11 votes after six games. It comes after a blinding start to the season where he's averaged 31.7 disposals and 6.5 clearances.

BROWNLOW PREDICTOR Who's leading the race?

The Brownlow Predictor has tipped Keays to poll maximum votes in half of his six matches so far this year, which would see him sit alongside Brayshaw at the top. The Dockers midfielder has averaged 30.2 disposals and 6.2 tackles.

BROWNLOW PREDICTOR​

11 Ben Keays (Adelaide)
11 Andrew Brayshaw (Fremantle)
10 Patrick Cripps (Carlton)
9 Clayton Oliver (Melbourne)
9 Christian Petracca (Melbourne)
8 Callum Mills (Sydney)
8 Lachie Neale (Brisbane)
8 Jack Steele (St Kilda)
 
Mutineer said:
www.afl.com.au

Brownlow Predictor: Who is the early leader after round six?

There's a surprise early leader in the race for the Brownlow Medal, according to our predictor
www.afl.com.au www.afl.com.au

COULD we have a shock early Brownlow Medal leader?

After six games so far this season, Adelaide midfielder Ben Keays joins exciting Fremantle youngster Andrew Brayshaw in taking a share of the lead in AFL.com.au's Brownlow Predictor.

Keays, once delisted by the Lions before finding a home at the Crows on a rookie deal, sits alongside Brayshaw with 11 votes after six games. It comes after a blinding start to the season where he's averaged 31.7 disposals and 6.5 clearances.

BROWNLOW PREDICTOR Who's leading the race?

The Brownlow Predictor has tipped Keays to poll maximum votes in half of his six matches so far this year, which would see him sit alongside Brayshaw at the top. The Dockers midfielder has averaged 30.2 disposals and 6.2 tackles.

BROWNLOW PREDICTOR​

11 Ben Keays (Adelaide)
11 Andrew Brayshaw (Fremantle)
10 Patrick Cripps (Carlton)
9 Clayton Oliver (Melbourne)
9 Christian Petracca (Melbourne)
8 Callum Mills (Sydney)
8 Lachie Neale (Brisbane)
8 Jack Steele (St Kilda)
Click to expand...

Does the AFL ever discuss the inaccuracy of their own Brownlow predictor?
 
Mutineer said:
www.afl.com.au

Brownlow Predictor: Who is the early leader after round six?

There's a surprise early leader in the race for the Brownlow Medal, according to our predictor
www.afl.com.au www.afl.com.au

COULD we have a shock early Brownlow Medal leader?

After six games so far this season, Adelaide midfielder Ben Keays joins exciting Fremantle youngster Andrew Brayshaw in taking a share of the lead in AFL.com.au's Brownlow Predictor.

Keays, once delisted by the Lions before finding a home at the Crows on a rookie deal, sits alongside Brayshaw with 11 votes after six games. It comes after a blinding start to the season where he's averaged 31.7 disposals and 6.5 clearances.

BROWNLOW PREDICTOR Who's leading the race?

The Brownlow Predictor has tipped Keays to poll maximum votes in half of his six matches so far this year, which would see him sit alongside Brayshaw at the top. The Dockers midfielder has averaged 30.2 disposals and 6.2 tackles.

BROWNLOW PREDICTOR​

11 Ben Keays (Adelaide)
11 Andrew Brayshaw (Fremantle)
10 Patrick Cripps (Carlton)
9 Clayton Oliver (Melbourne)
9 Christian Petracca (Melbourne)
8 Callum Mills (Sydney)
8 Lachie Neale (Brisbane)
8 Jack Steele (St Kilda)
Click to expand...
An interesting call, given that he probably has 0 votes for R1-3. That means he'd have had to get 11 votes in 3 games (R4-6), which would be impressive.

I have no doubt at all that he'd be leading the Malcolm Blight Medal quite handsomely right now, but Brownlow votes are for the best 3 players on the ground - not the best AFC players on the ground. Keays has been Adelaide's best & most consistent player this year, but he wasn't in the best 3 players on the ground in those first 3 games (no Adelaide player will get votes in the Collingwood game).
 

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Looking at the AFLCA voting, as a guide to the Brownlow voting (but only as a guide)...
AFLCA Champion Player of the Year - AFL Coaches Association Awards - AFL Coaches Association

Keays would have the following:
R1 (vs Freo): 1 vote
R2 (vs Collingwood): 0 votes
R3 (vs Port): 0 votes
R4: 0 votes
R5: 0 votes (maybe 1 vote)
R6: 1 vote (most likely 0)

Notes:
R1: Freo dominated most of the game, other than a 1 1/2 quarter purple patch when Adelaide got on top. I expect 2 of the 3 votes to go to the winners (Freo). Rachele dominated on debut, and will take the only Adelaide vote.
R2: Collingwood smashed the Crows, no Adelaide player received AFLCA votes, and none is likely to receive Brownlow votes.
R3: Both coaches agreed that Dawson, Marshall & Himmelberg were the best 3 players on the ground. One coach thought Keays was 4th best, the other didn't have him in their top-5.
R4: Keays didn't receive any votes, from either coach. Both agreed that Parish was BOG, but were divided between Draper, Walker, Laird, Redman, and Rachele, all of whom received 3 or 4 votes.
R5: Both coaches had Walker as a clear BOG. Cotchin, Himmelberg & Doedee all received 4 votes. Keays was next, with 3 votes.
R6: Doedee & Frampton were the big winners with the coaches, with 9 & 6 respectively. Keays was on the next line, with 4 votes, alongside Liberatore. Yes, Adelaide won, but the umpires were clearly favouring the Dogs all day. There's no way Adelaide gets all 3 votes for this game, and they may not even get 2. Keays was Adelaide's 3rd best player, so he will most likely be empty handed for this round on Brownlow night.

On that basis, Keays most likely only has 1 or 2 Brownlow votes after R6, with an outside chance of 3 votes. How the AFL selectors came up with 11 votes is entirely beyond me.
 

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