Who will win the Brownlow?

[mellowyellow]

What's gone wrong with Martin? Is he in danger of losing his spot in the side? Pretty alarming fall from grace for a 21 year old #2 draft pick???

keep this sort of s**t for the bay champ

 

[Duritz]

Gee don't go OTT guys that Martin comment has been taken out of context - it was in response to a Tigers fan who had hinted at Martin having had a shocker, that was all.

Carry on.

And, in carrying on, I might be way off but I really like Thompson. One of, if not the only player, who will poll well all year, no significant lapses, IMO.

 

[Jars458]

Thompson got the decisive clearances when it mattered, wright and danger got a junk time goal or two were otherwise not as dominant. Walker will get 3 if there is any sense to the voting.
There is no way Sylvia should get a vote in a 10+ goal loss where he went cold after half time and they proceeded to get thumped. Where most melb goals came from over the top kicks from turnovers and bombing to incredible marking performances up forward.
Rutten was more influential for Melbourne, earned them a lot of scoring assists.

Walker, Tipett<>Thompson.
my voting is perhaps different because it awards those who had the impact on the game when it was still in the balance over slow starters, fading performances and junk time scores

3 Walker
2 Tippett
1 Dangerfield
is my take. I didn't have Tommo in our top 5 but god knows what the umpires will do.

 

[Duritz]

Thompson has played all 21 games to date, also... a big advantage obviously. I could see, best case scenario, him polling in 17 of them.

 

[Alexwce]

Thompson has played all 21 games to date, also... a big advantage obviously. I could see, best case scenario, him polling in 17 of them.

I've got him polling votes in 12 matches and a possible 1-2 votes in 2 other matches. Toned him back a few votes in the last few rounds after reading media reports / reviewing coaches votes and now have him sitting on 25. Has just slowed down in the last 6 weeks though.

 

[Mark_K]

It's fairly open and we should see a new winner.

Murphy, Judd & Pendles wont figure.

Perhaps Sammy Mitchell may finally get it? He polled heavily last year and i think he has had an even better year this year, he is a gun.

I’d like to see Jobe win it but Kennedy/Cotchin are possibilities.

Even though as a Pie supporter, i don’t think Swan has been as a good as last season, but he will poll heavily again.

I don’t think missing two through suspension will hurt him too much.

I don’t think he will win, but Andrew Swallow should go ok as well. Expecting 20 from Ablett as well. The man is a freak.

 

[Hawkinspired]

History tells us you need two outstanding seasons to poll well. Whilst guys like Cotchin, Kennedy, Dangerfield and Beams would certainly be deserving it's really unlikely given they are all experiencing a break out year into the elite category.

Thompson and Watson are interesting cases as neither have ever posted more than 18 votes.

Ablett has the history but like last year the lack of games won will go against him.

So who's left? Last years winner Dane Swan (17/1), last years favourite to win Scott Pendlebury (21/1), and the runner up Sam Mitchell (27/1). Let's not forget Joel Selwood (34/1) who has been Geelongs best player and a good history of polling.

Scott Thompson is the most realistic chance of the favorites but I'd be surprised if the forgotten group of Swan, Pendles, Mitchell and Selwood were not in the top five. Excellent value for a top five placing.

 

[Ron The Bear]

History tells us you need two outstanding seasons to poll well. Whilst guys like Cotchin, Kennedy, Dangerfield and Beams would certainly be deserving it's really unlikely given they are all experiencing a break out year into the elite category.

Cotchin polled 15 votes in the Brownlow and was top 10 in the coaches' award last year. Yeah it's been his best season but it isn't as though he's exploded, despite what the hype suggests.

 

[Chriseddy999]

I have Scott Thompson leading my count narrowly to Ablett and Jobe. Just really concerned that he's given away the most free kicks in the comp by a mile. He has few to steal votes off him too. Only Dangerfield really. Sloane and big Tex the occasional decent game too, but overall not much competition. It's the same for Jobe though, but from 15 and on I don't have Jobe polling well at all. Is anyone keen to swap counts through skype or facebook or anything? PM me if you want. I'm trying to get these things as accurate as possible.

 

[Donakebab]

History tells us you need two outstanding seasons to poll well. Whilst guys like Cotchin, Kennedy, Dangerfield and Beams would certainly be deserving it's really unlikely given they are all experiencing a break out year into the elite category.

Thompson and Watson are interesting cases as neither have ever posted more than 18 votes.

Ablett has the history but like last year the lack of games won will go against him.

So who's left? Last years winner Dane Swan (17/1), last years favourite to win Scott Pendlebury (21/1), and the runner up Sam Mitchell (27/1). Let's not forget Joel Selwood (34/1) who has been Geelongs best player and a good history of polling.

Scott Thompson is the most realistic chance of the favorites but I'd be surprised if the forgotten group of Swan, Pendles, Mitchell and Selwood were not in the top five. Excellent value for a top five placing.

Watson polled 16 votes in 2010 from 21 games and 15 from 16 games in 2011. Definitely good enough polling history under your guidelines.

 

[Crow_Sting]

I have Scott Thompson leading my count narrowly to Ablett and Jobe. Just really concerned that he's given away the most free kicks in the comp by a mile. He has few to steal votes off him too. Only Dangerfield really. Sloane and big Tex the occasional decent game too, but overall not much competition. It's the same for Jobe though, but from 15 and on I don't have Jobe polling well at all. Is anyone keen to swap counts through skype or facebook or anything? PM me if you want. I'm trying to get these things as accurate as possible.

I have fb. Chuck me a pm on here

 

[The Goon]

Gee don't go OTT guys that Martin comment has been taken out of context - it was in response to a Tigers fan who had hinted at Martin having had a shocker, that was all.

Carry on.

And, in carrying on, I might be way off but I really like Thompson. One of, if not the only player, who will poll well all year, no significant lapses, IMO.

Nah, you were just too obvious D.

 

[Wacky Tiger]

Gee don't go OTT guys that Martin comment has been taken out of context - it was in response to a Tigers fan who had hinted at Martin having had a shocker, that was all.

Carry on.

And, in carrying on, I might be way off but I really like Thompson. One of, if not the only player, who will poll well all year, no significant lapses, IMO.

Yeah i'll back you up here Duritz. Think it was to my response about Martin not polling votes. Hes had an alright year just not good as most would/were expecting. And as some of the other posters have mentioned statistically it looks like hes had another good solid year just dont think he has had the standout games to get votes.

 

[NZ_Tiger]

Champion Data have Tuck well up there ahead of Cotchin...

 

[Duritz]

Champion Data have Tuck well up there ahead of Cotchin...

Tuck is overs.

Just don't tell the bookies.

Or Kardinia_Park or Lenny29.

 

[Alexwce]

Bare in mind Watson was subbed out of a couple of games and played injured in some games as well last year. He will rake in the votes.

Ablett, Cotchin, Watson, Thompson, Beams for mine

 

[muttley45]

josh kennedy @ 15-1 thank you very much

 

[Alexwce]

Kennedy a chance too but McVeigh, Jack and Bolton have had good seasons and will pool strong too.

 

[Groupie_]

Dayne.

Beams.

 

[Duritz]

Dayne.

Beams.

Kidding.

Yourself.

 

[Groupie_]

Kidding.

Yourself.

Why? Who's your tip?

 

[Hawkinspired]

Watson polled 16 votes in 2010 from 21 games and 15 from 16 games in 2011. Definitely good enough polling history under your guidelines.

Which is exactly why I didn't mention him in that group of up and comers. I just was surprised they had never polled higher than 18 votes. I would think Thompson would win just because Adelaide have won more games, and that's my only worry about Watson. We know he fell away with injury last season and this year they have lost 6 of the last 7 games convincingly. He would need an almighty lead at the halfway mark which isn't impossible.

 

[Duritz]

Why? Who's your tip?

Thompson, clearly, for mine.

 

[Groupie_]

Thompson, clearly, for mine.

Possible, but don't think so.

 

[Wacky Tiger]

Thompson, clearly, for mine.

Yeah whats his history like? The only thing that will hold him back is Dangerfield is a flashy player who does things that stick in your memory. Could see him taking too many 3 votes of Thompson.

Im starting to think Kennedy is the one. First 4 weeks were BOG easily. Then last 2-3 were very good too. Pick up a few 1s and 2s through the middle and hes laughing.