Who will win the Brownlow?

[Ron The Bear]

The difference is, as many as 10 players can score votes in a single game in that award, and even in the 100 point beltings the best player on the losing side can pick up a consolation 2 votes. Hence it's hardly out of the question for a player in a team that finishes 10-12 for the season to, as far and away the best player on his team, pick up 7-10 votes in all of the wins (which would be likely 3/2 Brownlow votes), and 1-5 votes in the losses (which would be 0 Brownlow votes)

Although I don't base my argument solely on the AFLCA, I'll concede that point. But look at it this way.

12 times, Cotchin has polled 5+ votes in the AFLCA, meaning he's been voted in the best three by at least one of the coaches 12 times. Brownlow results of players polling in 12 games since 1984:

Harvey 1998 (14), winner
Swan 2011 (14), winner
Judd 2004 (13), winner
Ablett 2009 (13), winner
Ablett 2010 (13), 2nd
Crawford 1999 (12), winner
Buckley 2003 (12), winner
Judd 2010 (12), winner
Selwood 2010 (12), eq 4th
Swan 2010 (12), 3rd
Dal Santo 2011 (12), 3rd
Mitchell 2011 (12), 2nd
Murphy 2011 (12), eq 9th

Watching Cotchin every week as I do, I think the hype is a little ahead of the performance, as it usually is. But if the umpires take a collective shine to him it may be the difference between getting 2's instead of 1's, 1's instead of donuts.

Put it this way...if he polls in Round 1, I will be jumping on!

 

[EyeloveRichmond]

Yep massive fall from grace. Alarming even. A 21 year old averaging 23 possessions in his 3rd year, 23 goals. Averaging more disposals and scoring shots than his previous 2 seasons.

Based on this he would be in danger of losing his spot one would think. They are obviously gifting him games.

If Richmond want to get rid of him I am sure we will find a spot for him. Probably would struggle to break into the all conquering Lions midfield though.

Couldn't have said it any better

 

[Final Siren]

Every Brownlow winner has polled in games where neutrals thought him lucky. Do the umpires share the Cotch love? The number of free kicks he gets says yes.

My mate and I have marvelled this year at how the umpires fell in love with Cotch. It became especially obvious in the second half of the year. You see King get his head torn off, "play on," the ball goes to Cotch, there's an ambiguous scuffle, "free to the fresh-faced boy with nice manners."

 

[Ron The Bear]

My mate and I have marvelled this year at how the umpires fell in love with Cotch. It became especially obvious in the second half of the year. You see King get his head torn off, "play on," the ball goes to Cotch, there's an ambiguous scuffle, "free to the fresh-faced boy with nice manners."

It's amazing how King used to get them before he acquired a reputation. We know how badly he gets ripped off these days, yet he still appears on this list!

Most free kicks among current players, first 85 games of career:

186 Joel Selwood
161 Andrew Swallow
147 Angus Monfries
143 Trent Cotchin
143 Ben McGlynn
136 Marc Murphy
127 Josh Fraser
125 Jake King
120 Scott Thompson (NM)
119 Dean Cox

 

[Jobe Watson]

Those free kick stats are why Cotchin is red hot chance to win the medal despite being in a bottom 8 team. I don't think he's been the best player this year, or even the most deserving of the medal (Ablett + Watson at least have been better), but he's an umpires pet and that will show on Brownlow night.

 

[huludicidal]

The most votes ever thing holds little water, as we haven't always had a 22 game season.

With two expansion sides in the league, the competition has been more one-sided, allowing a lot more games to be blowouts. This leads to those games having a greater tendency for the 3-2-1 to go to the blowout team.

One team, as all have noted, has had an easier draw than it's finals counterparts: Adelaide. They have won 16, and will finish with 17 wins in all likelihood. They will poll a lot of votes, due to many thrashings, and have only a few guys in there who will get most of the votes.

One of those guys, is Scott Thompson. On the weekend he will play game 22 out of 22 for the year. In a team that has few vote-pullers. In a team that won 17 games. As their best midfielder for the year.

Scott Thompson will s**t in.

As an Adelaide fan who not only watches every adelaide game, but watches a replay of every adelaide game, i can almost assure you that thompson will be leading the brownlow after round 16. However, i can also assure you that he has 0 VOTES FROM ANY GAMES SINCE THAT TIME (rds 17-22 inclusive). He may come out and get 40 touches against the gold coast in rd 23 and snag another 3 votes, but i'm not big on betting on blokes who i know for a fact are going to have a 6 week stretch with no votes late in the season, while other guys like kennedy and cotchin are polling well in the same period.

I have thompson polling 23 votes. i think a kennedy, cotchin or even watson or ablett will be up around 26-27. dangerfield probably around 21-22 votes for mine.

Another thing to bear in mind with Thompson is that he has struggled badly with giving away free kicks this season. Without looking at the stats, I would guess that he has given away the most free kicks of any player in the league. This may come into the umpires minds when considering who the best AND FAIREST player in each game was.

 

[Duritz]

As an Adelaide fan who not only watches every adelaide game, but watches a replay of every adelaide game, i can almost assure you that thompson will be leading the brownlow after round 16. However, i can also assure you that he has 0 VOTES FROM ANY GAMES SINCE THAT TIME (rds 17-22 inclusive). He may come out and get 40 touches against the gold coast in rd 23 and snag another 3 votes, but i'm not big on betting on blokes who i know for a fact are going to have a 6 week stretch with no votes late in the season, while other guys like kennedy and cotchin are polling well in the same period.

I have thompson polling 23 votes. i think a kennedy, cotchin or even watson or ablett will be up around 26-27. dangerfield probably around 21-22 votes for mine.

Another thing to bear in mind with Thompson is that he has struggled badly with giving away free kicks this season. Without looking at the stats, I would guess that he has given away the most free kicks of any player in the league. This may come into the umpires minds when considering who the best AND FAIREST player in each game was.

I'm very interested in the bolded bit, especially the use of the word "fact". Do you KNOW he won't get any votes, or just strongly believe he won't?

Personally, I see these as possible vote games in that time:

R17 vs wcst (win) possible 1
R18 vs geel (loss) probable 0, possible 1
R19 vs Ess (win) possible 1
R20 vs freo (win) 0
R21 vs bris (loss) possible 1
R22 vs melbourne anywhere from 1 to 3 depending how they see it

I think you're very harsh if you don't think he'll poll in any of those games.

 

[Lord Nicholson]

R19 vs Ess (win) possible 1

Would, or rather, should be nowhere near getting votes for that. Dangerfield, Walker, Dempsey/Watson. Pick your order.

Those free kick stats are why Cotchin is red hot chance to win the medal despite being in a bottom 8 team. I don't think he's been the best player this year, or even the most deserving of the medal (Ablett + Watson at least have been better), but he's an umpires pet and that will show on Brownlow night.

I think that's a little extreme. He'd be a deserving medallist. While a lot of the frees are as soft as can be, he is typically the guy at the bottom of the pack.

 

[huludicidal]

I'm very interested in the bolded bit, especially the use of the word "fact". Do you KNOW he won't get any votes, or just strongly believe he won't?

Personally, I see these as possible vote games in that time:

R17 vs wcst (win) possible 1
R18 vs geel (loss) probable 0, possible 1
R19 vs Ess (win) possible 1
R20 vs freo (win) 0
R21 vs bris (loss) possible 1
R22 vs melbourne anywhere from 1 to 3 depending how they see it

I think you're very harsh if you don't think he'll poll in any of those games.

We will revisit this on brownlow night.

In my opinion Thompson has been pretty bad by his standards in most of these games. Clangers and free kicks against galore. His performance against the cats was brave, but its hard to see any crows players getting a vote in that game. You are being very kind if you are giving him a chance of a vote against brisbane or melb. He was annihilated by Jack Redden in the Brisbane game (Redden was BOG by a street) and had another shocker (by his standards) against the dees. His possessions don't always tell the story. He's been coughing it up a lot lately. Walker and Tippett were miles ahead of any other player in the melbourne game. Its a midfielders award, but if they don't get the 3 and 2 votes in that one i'd be shocked. Sylvia, Petrenko or Dangerfield will likely snare the other vote.

I guess he is a 'chance' of getting 1 vote in the west coast and/or essendon games but i didn't have him in the best 5 on the ground in either game.

We should all remember that it is umpires who vote though. Half the time they probably pick the votes out of a hat or vote for blokes who speak politely to them at stoppages. Until the Brownlow is voted on by a panel of experts who actually have a clue about football it won't have any respect from me as a football award.

 

[Chriseddy999]

As an Adelaide fan who not only watches every adelaide game, but watches a replay of every adelaide game, i can almost assure you that thompson will be leading the brownlow after round 16. However, i can also assure you that he has 0 VOTES FROM ANY GAMES SINCE THAT TIME (rds 17-22 inclusive). He may come out and get 40 touches against the gold coast in rd 23 and snag another 3 votes, but i'm not big on betting on blokes who i know for a fact are going to have a 6 week stretch with no votes late in the season, while other guys like kennedy and cotchin are polling well in the same period.

I have thompson polling 23 votes. i think a kennedy, cotchin or even watson or ablett will be up around 26-27. dangerfield probably around 21-22 votes for mine.

Another thing to bear in mind with Thompson is that he has struggled badly with giving away free kicks this season. Without looking at the stats, I would guess that he has given away the most free kicks of any player in the league. This may come into the umpires minds when considering who the best AND FAIREST player in each game was.

I have Scotty Thompson a chance to poll in rounds 18, 21 and 22.

In round 18 against geelong I watched it pretty closely. I think he could sneak in for 1. He had 40, but he did give away a few free kicks. But he battled hard all day and definitely has a chance of getting 1 vote. Don't agree that he is an assured 0.

The Brisbane game in round 21 I gave redden max votes hesitantly, as I don't believe he will be a big vote getter in the umpires' eyes. The decision for the 2 and 1 was tough. I thought Rich was really influential that game and Scotty Thompson and Danger were the bests for adelaide. He could snare 2 votes here, maybe 1, maybe finish 4th best on and get 0. But either way, think it's close.

I unfortunately didn't get to see all of the Melbourne game. But from what I saw, big Tex did dominate. And from what I heard, Dangerfield was pure junk time stats. Not too sure of the history of vote getting when someone junks it up when the game is over. Would be cool if someone knew anything about that. If it's shown that umpires often give votes to these types of performances, then I would sneak Danger in at 1 vote. But I think tippett and Thompson will be fighting for the 1 and 2. But then again, I didn't watch all the game and I'm sure I'm probably wrong.

 

[Duritz]

We will revisit this on brownlow night.

In my opinion Thompson has been pretty bad by his standards in most of these games. Clangers and free kicks against galore. His performance against the cats was brave, but its hard to see any crows players getting a vote in that game. You are being very kind if you are giving him a chance of a vote against brisbane or melb. He was annihilated by Jack Redden in the Brisbane game (Redden was BOG by a street) and had another shocker (by his standards) against the dees. His possessions don't always tell the story. He's been coughing it up a lot lately. Walker and Tippett were miles ahead of any other player in the melbourne game. Its a midfielders award, but if they don't get the 3 and 2 votes in that one i'd be shocked. Sylvia, Petrenko or Dangerfield will likely snare the other vote.

I guess he is a 'chance' of getting 1 vote in the west coast and/or essendon games but i didn't have him in the best 5 on the ground in either game.

We should all remember that it is umpires who vote though. Half the time they probably pick the votes out of a hat or vote for blokes who speak politely to them at stoppages. Until the Brownlow is voted on by a panel of experts who actually have a clue about football it won't have any respect from me as a football award.

Well this is the point... we're not arguing about who was best player, we're arguing about who will get the votes given by the umpires.

Now, as we know, the umpires have a slight tendency to give more votes to midfielders than, say, forwards. And, they have a slight tendency to ignore backmen.

In the Melbourne game - Thompson was quiet early but in a game where no Adelaide player dominated posession counts, he finished very strongly and by the finish was certainly better than Sylvia or Petrenko. There's no way Sylvia will get votes when they lost by a million points. Doesn't happen. Walker SHOULD get the 3, but Thompson is a big chance for the 2. The votes should be - in no order - Walker, Tippett, Thompson, Dangerfield. I'd think it'd be Walker - Thompson - Tippett, or Walker - Tippett - Thompson.

Also... in a poor year for you guys last year he got 12 votes. Led your tally I believe? You won 7 games and finished 14th. That's good going for a team who placed low.

I am talking through the pocket, I can tell you that without fear, because I have him going for a LOT of money... and I will likely be backing him again, but I think he's a good thing.

 

[Duritz]

I have Scotty Thompson a chance to poll in rounds 18, 21 and 22.

In round 18 against geelong I watched it pretty closely. I think he could sneak in for 1. He had 40, but he did give away a few free kicks. But he battled hard all day and definitely has a chance of getting 1 vote. Don't agree that he is an assured 0.

The Brisbane game in round 21 I gave redden max votes hesitantly, as I don't believe he will be a big vote getter in the umpires' eyes. The decision for the 2 and 1 was tough. I thought Rich was really influential that game and Scotty Thompson and Danger were the bests for adelaide. He could snare 2 votes here, maybe 1, maybe finish 4th best on and get 0. But either way, think it's close.

I unfortunately didn't get to see all of the Melbourne game. But from what I saw, big Tex did dominate. And from what I heard, Dangerfield was pure junk time stats. Not too sure of the history of vote getting when someone junks it up when the game is over. Would be cool if someone knew anything about that. If it's shown that umpires often give votes to these types of performances, then I would sneak Danger in at 1 vote. But I think tippett and Thompson will be fighting for the 1 and 2. But then again, I didn't watch all the game and I'm sure I'm probably wrong.

I watched all that Adelaide game and think you have it spot on.

 

[Chriseddy999]

Well this is the point... we're not arguing about who was best player, we're arguing about who will get the votes given by the umpires.

Now, as we know, the umpires have a slight tendency to give more votes to midfielders than, say, forwards. And, they have a slight tendency to ignore backmen.

In the Melbourne game - Thompson was quiet early but in a game where no Adelaide player dominated posession counts, he finished very strongly and by the finish was certainly better than Sylvia or Petrenko. There's no way Sylvia will get votes when they lost by a million points. Doesn't happen. Walker SHOULD get the 3, but Thompson is a big chance for the 2. The votes should be - in no order - Walker, Tippett, Thompson, Dangerfield. I'd think it'd be Walker - Thompson - Tippett, or Walker - Tippett - Thompson.

Also... in a poor year for you guys last year he got 12 votes. Led your tally I believe? You won 7 games and finished 14th. That's good going for a team who placed low.

I am talking through the pocket, I can tell you that without fear, because I have him going for a LOT of money... and I will likely be backing him again, but I think he's a good thing.

I too have a large sum of money on him each way. PM me for my fb or skype if you want to swap spreadsheets and discuss key games.

 

[huludicidal]

Well this is the point... we're not arguing about who was best player, we're arguing about who will get the votes given by the umpires.

Now, as we know, the umpires have a slight tendency to give more votes to midfielders than, say, forwards. And, they have a slight tendency to ignore backmen.

In the Melbourne game - Thompson was quiet early but in a game where no Adelaide player dominated posession counts, he finished very strongly and by the finish was certainly better than Sylvia or Petrenko. There's no way Sylvia will get votes when they lost by a million points. Doesn't happen. Walker SHOULD get the 3, but Thompson is a big chance for the 2. The votes should be - in no order - Walker, Tippett, Thompson, Dangerfield. I'd think it'd be Walker - Thompson - Tippett, or Walker - Tippett - Thompson.

Also... in a poor year for you guys last year he got 12 votes. Led your tally I believe? You won 7 games and finished 14th. That's good going for a team who placed low.

I am talking through the pocket, I can tell you that without fear, because I have him going for a LOT of money... and I will likely be backing him again, but I think he's a good thing.

Well i definitely hope he gets up!

Good luck with your bets. I would be delighted to be proven wrong on this. Lets hope he comes out and mauls the Suns on the weekend which could push him over the line.

 

[Duritz]

Well i definitely hope he gets up!

Good luck with your bets. I would be delighted to be proven wrong on this. Lets hope he comes out and mauls the Suns on the weekend which could push him over the line.

Yes big barrack for that.

 

[Duritz]

I too have a large sum of money on him each way. PM me for my fb or skype if you want to swap spreadsheets and discuss key games.

Need a private board to discuss it... I might be able to set one up on a different site if you're interested.

 

[Chriseddy999]

Need a private board to discuss it... I might be able to set one up on a different site if you're interested.

Okay yeah cool. I don't mind, whatever floats your boat. Hit me up with the details!

 

[Jobe Watson]

I think that's a little extreme. He'd be a deserving medallist. While a lot of the frees are as soft as can be, he is typically the guy at the bottom of the pack.

Of course he's a deserving medalist. I just think that Ablett and Watson have had better seasons and would be more deserving of the medal.

 

[Duritz]

Okay yeah cool. I don't mind, whatever floats your boat. Hit me up with the details!

If we get a private board going then others can join in, without it going out to the general (scum) public.

 

[StevenwellerHFC]

Trent won't win, he prob won't even be in the top 5, keep dreamin'.

 

[footscore]

reckon Pavlich will be a big mover up the leader board and the network or whoever runs the gig will make it enjoyable for TV ratings so they'll make it a close finish this year.

Dangerfield (flashier player so will likely take the 3 on most occasions over Thompson) & Kennedy are my bets as both kick goals but win their own ball and their teams have been very successful more so than the usual Melbourne-based teams.

 

[Spanish_Fly]

I have a good history in having my money on the brownlow winner and the golden rule is to never back someone who doesnt have a proven history as a vote getter. This completely discounts Kennedy, Thompson and Beams. IMO the only real Chances are from Ablett, Watson, Dangerfield, Cotchin and Mitchell. Dangerfield I like, he only had 3 games last year anywhere near the level he has been at this year and he got 3, 2 & 2 votes. Ablett will poll about the same as last year, Watson will poll in 12 games, that may be enough. The unknowns to some extent are Danger and Cotch, I think Danger is likely to poll more than Cotch but have a strange feeling Cotch may end up a C. Judd type love magnet for the umpires. Mitchell no one ever talks about but he consistently polls well and has had a good a season this year as last and if he matches that vote tally he will win. Money at the start of the year was on Ablett, might put a sneaky on Mitchell before the count especially if he drifts anymore and something on Danger to place.

 

[Duritz]

I have a good history in having my money on the brownlow winner and the golden rule is to never back someone who doesnt have a proven history as a vote getter. This completely discounts Kennedy, Thompson and Beams.

Thompson led Adelaide's votes last year with 12, in a team that only had 7 wins.

 

[Chriseddy999]

I have a good history in having my money on the brownlow winner and the golden rule is to never back someone who doesnt have a proven history as a vote getter. This completely discounts Kennedy, Thompson and Beams. IMO the only real Chances are from Ablett, Watson, Dangerfield, Cotchin and Mitchell. Dangerfield I like, he only had 3 games last year anywhere near the level he has been at this year and he got 3, 2 & 2 votes. Ablett will poll about the same as last year, Watson will poll in 12 games, that may be enough. The unknowns to some extent are Danger and Cotch, I think Danger is likely to poll more than Cotch but have a strange feeling Cotch may end up a C. Judd type love magnet for the umpires. Mitchell no one ever talks about but he consistently polls well and has had a good a season this year as last and if he matches that vote tally he will win. Money at the start of the year was on Ablett, might put a sneaky on Mitchell before the count especially if he drifts anymore and something on Danger to place.

I wouldn't say scott thompson is a bad vote getter. He polled well last year with low amount of wins. Although Ablett is a proven vote getter, he's a proven disappointment all of the time too. He must've been close to favourite at least 3 times in his career and only won 1. That was at the all conquering geelong too! Question marks over him in my opinion

 

[Spanish_Fly]

Thompson led Adelaide's votes last year with 12, in a team that only had 7 wins.

For me the 12 votes last year isnt enough to inspire confidence this year, he didnt have anyone competing with him for votes last year and was the clear standout in that side. Dangers 7 votes give me much more confidence than Thompsons 12, just my opinion though. Dont get me wrong I think Thompson will be over 20 votes, but not by much and he just doesnt represent the value of the others IMO and I just dont think he can win.