Who will win the Brownlow?

[Grimmjow]

swans numbers monsters cotchin? that makes no sense..what are you talking about? more possessions? cotchin is more effective when the ball is in his hands and what he does with it and you know it. not saying swan is bad but how often does he just get it from someone run and butcher it. not once have i ever seen cotchin do such a thing. I don't think Cotch will get it this year but no one expected swan to get it last year.

dont be so Cotchin naive

from memory, 4th Qtr against NTH when it was anyones game, butchered the ball from the back pocket which lead to opposition mark and goal.

i dont know why, but theres a perception that Swan has useless stats. it is these numbers that Swan plays a vital cog in collingwood winning.

 

[Grimmjow]

and just for the record...sorry mate but swans best is no where near abletts best..or even judd (WC)

ok Swan's best is not Abletts or Judd's best.

Cotchin's best is not even near Swan's best.

EDIT: im done with the Cotchin bashing, hes a good kid - good investment for brownlow 2012

 

[ConfuciusSays]

might get crucified on here but.... I don't have Cotchin in my top 5

 

[strauchy]

dont be so Cotchin naive

from memory, 4th Qtr against NTH when it was anyones game, butchered the ball from the back pocket which lead to opposition mark and goal.

i dont know why, but theres a perception that Swan has useless stats. it is these numbers that Swan plays a vital cog in collingwood winning.

1 kick in his history, swan does it multiple times a game well done. everyone knows that cotchin is miles more exciting when he gets the ball and you just know something good is going to happen. That vibe is never the case with Swan
lol ok fair enough. its your opinion...
but everyone knows how well he gets the ball from stoppages and kicks around his body straight out on the full. Of course there is that perception on him, I wonder why.

 

[_DBF_]

might get crucified on here but.... I don't have Cotchin in my top 5

Neither do I. Will be pleasantly surprised if he wins it.

 

[Barnzy]

i dont know why, but theres a perception that Swan has useless stats.

Probably from watching him play. Grubber kicks along the ground and stat padding in the backline are regular features. Not to say he's not a great player but most would take 25-30 Cotchin possessions over 30-35 Swan possessions.

 

[ConfuciusSays]

My top 10

Swan - 28
Watson - 28
Dangerfield - 26
Beams - 26
Thompson - 25
Selwood - 24
Ablett - 24
Pendlebury - 21
Cotchin - 21
Kennedy - 20

 

[no orange peeler]

My top 10

Swan - 28
Watson - 28
Dangerfield - 26
Beams - 26
Thompson - 25
Selwood - 24
Ablett - 24
Pendlebury - 21
Cotchin - 21
Kennedy - 20

3 collingwood players all over 20. Big call

 

[ConfuciusSays]

3 collingwood players all over 20. Big call

All had big years
Adelaide have two with 20 +
Sydney 20 & 19 respectively to Jack and Kennedy
Ive got 3 richmond mids which are close to 20, so it can happen

Big point is Collingwoods forwards are shithouse, which means mids have to do all the work = piles of votes for them.

 

[Chriseddy999]

Here's what I think will happen with Cotchin. Obviously he's the only one I've seen play 20+ games so I won't bother guessing for the rest. I'll list the other vote contenders aswell so you can get a guage of how many others he's up against:

Round 1 - 27 possesions, 2 goals, 44 point loss to Carlton. Could get 0-2. Probably 1
Round 2 - 26 possesions, no goals, 20 point loss to Pies. Might sneak 1. Probably 0.
Round 3 - 22 possesions, 3 goals, 59 point win over Dees. Won't poll.
Round 4 - 24 possesions, no goals, 10 point loss to the Cats. Unlikely to poll. Not many standouts though.
Round 5 - 29 possesions, 1 goal. 12 point loss to Dees. 1-3 votes. Was best on for mine. Probably 2.
Round 6 - 18 possesions, no goals. 37 point win over Port. Won't poll. Quietest game for the year.
Round 7 - 27 possesions, 2 goals, 29 point win over Swans. Was BOG imo. Lots of good players though. Should get three but I reckon 2.
Round 8 - 29 possesions, 3 goals, 19 point loss to Bombers. 1-2 votes. Stanton, Watson, Cotchin, Deledio the four clear standouts. Could get three. Should poll.
Round 9 - 31 possesions, 1 goal, 62 point win over Hawks. Was BOG for me. Four other Tigers were very good though. Should get three, probably won't though. I'll say 3.
Round 10 - 29 possesions, no goals, 8 point win over Saints. Should get 1-2.
Round 11 - 30 possesions, 1 goal, 12 point loss to Freo. No real stand outs from either side. 1-3. Probably 2
Round 12 - 25 possesions, 1 goal, 12 point win over GWS. No real standouts. Probably won't poll. Might get 1
Round 14 - 25 possesions, 1 goal, 19 point loss to Crows. Only game I missed. He stacks up statistically but they lost. Probably none. Maybe 1-2.
Round 15 - 28 possesions, no goals, 23 point win over Dees. 0-2. I'll guess 1.
Round 16 - 38 possesions, no goals, 2 point loss to Gold Coast. Was clear BOG though probably won't get the votes due to the loss. 2 votes
Round 17 - 24 possesions, 1 goal, 2 point loss to North. Unlikely to poll.
Round 18 - 24 possesions, 3 goals, 4 point loss to Carlton. Murphy to get 3. 0-2 up for grabs. Probably none
Round 19 - 21 possesions, 1 goal, 48 point win vs Lions. Was quite but played a big role in breaking the game open in the third. Won't poll though.
Round 20 - 35 possesions, 3 goals, 70 point win over Dogs. Absolute lock for 3. I will turn off my TV if he doesn't get the three.
Round 21 - 32 possesions, 1 goal , 22 point loss to Freo. Sandilands probably three. 1 of 4 in contention for votes. Should get 1 or 2.
Round 22 - 31 possesions, 0 goals, 45 point win over Bombers. Raffle the votes between Tuck, Lids, Cotchin, Houli. Should get 1-2. Could get 3.
Round 23 - 31 possesions, no goals. Draw with Port. 1-3 votes I think. No real stand outs. I reckon he'll get the 3.

So 24-27 is my prediction. He's one of the harder players to predict because he's a chance to poll in probably 15 games or so, but he's only really got the one definite BOG. His best games have all been in either losses or games where Richmond had a number of standouts.

The umpires seem to like him so I think he'll pick up some unexpected votes. If he has 4-5 by round 5 I'd say he's a lock.

I don't get all the hype over Cotchin. TBH, I think he's last year's Adam Goodes. Not a great chance to win it. Just pumped up by the media and bookies so everyone gets on board so the bookies will probably collect a lot of money. There is just so much guessing with Cotchin. Assuming he is an umpires pet after 1 season of decent votes isn't a great idea either IMO, too small of a sample. And I think you are giving him votes where optimistically because of this reason alone.

Also, I remember doing the votes for the dreamtime game. And I'm pretty confident he will get 0. Was a clear 4th best on if that makes sense. Lids, Jobe and Stanton all just played great. Lids will probably get the three because the umpires see the medal presentation. But Jobe is an absolutely certainty for 3 or 2. Leaving 1 at best for Cotchin. But most likely give it Stanton. The tigers did lose after all.

Umpires are hesistant to give votes to losing teams, only freaks like Gazza can get the 2s and 3s regularly in losing sides. Cotchin is getting good, but no one is in the same class as Ablett. Richmond just haven't won enough games.

Get on him for next year I think.

 

[Chriseddy999]

Of those reaching double figures:
Player Totals
Scott Thompson (ADEL) 30
Jobe Watson 29
Gary Ablett 28
Dane Swan 28
Josh Kennedy (SYD) 27
Trent Cotchin 25
Dayne Beams 25
Patrick Dangerfield 23
Brett Deledio 22
Joel Selwood 21
Matthew Boyd 21
Matthew Pavlich 20
Sam Mitchell 20
Lance Franklin 18
Scott Pendlebury 18
Marc Murphy 16
Brent Stanton 15
Kieran Jack 15
Scott Selwood 15
Jack Redden 15
Steve Johnson 14
Tom Hawkins 14
Brent Harvey 14
Shane Tuck 13
David Mundy 13
Tom Rockliff 13
Lenny Hayes 12
Andrew Swallow 12
Dean Cox 12
Jarrad McVeigh 12
Daniel Hannebery 11
Kade Simpson 11
Ryan O'Keefe 11
James Kelly 11
Ryan Griffen 11
Chris Judd 10
Nick Riewoldt 10
Shaun Grigg 10
Nick Dal Santo 10
Steele Sidebottom 10
Luke Shuey 10

Very similar leader board to mine Cothcin doesn't make my top 5 either. I really hope the bookies offer a Thompson V Cotchin market.

 

[Rack Watts]

Hmmm, wonder what Josh Kennedy is paying?

 

[eaglespremiers]

Hmmm, wonder what Josh Kennedy is paying?

My concern is a quiet patch in the middle of the season for Kennedy.
Could really hurt his chances.

 

[Rack Watts]

My concern is a quiet patch in the middle of the season for Kennedy.
Could really hurt his chances.

Yeah, see I thought the same thing, the thing is he has quite a few 1 or 2 voters in there, also if they won games and he's in the umpires vision constantly he's likely to get those 1 votes.

 

[buddy2fernando]

asked this in another thread and didn't get a response, but does anyone know when the brownlow team winner multis start and who is offering them this year ?
also will post my votes shortly however as stated above cotchin doesn't feature in my top 5 either due to his slow start. if the umpires actually award votes to the best on ground and not best in a winning side then it should be gazzas this year

 

[Barry_Badrinath]

I don't get all the hype over Cotchin. TBH, I think he's last year's Adam Goodes. Not a great chance to win it. Just pumped up by the media and bookies so everyone gets on board so the bookies will probably collect a lot of money. There is just so much guessing with Cotchin. Assuming he is an umpires pet after 1 season of decent votes isn't a great idea either IMO, too small of a sample. And I think you are giving him votes where optimistically because of this reason alone.

Also, I remember doing the votes for the dreamtime game. And I'm pretty confident he will get 0. Was a clear 4th best on if that makes sense. Lids, Jobe and Stanton all just played great. Lids will probably get the three because the umpires see the medal presentation. But Jobe is an absolutely certainty for 3 or 2. Leaving 1 at best for Cotchin. But most likely give it Stanton. The tigers did lose after all.

Umpires are hesistant to give votes to losing teams, only freaks like Gazza can get the 2s and 3s regularly in losing sides. Cotchin is getting good, but no one is in the same class as Ablett. Richmond just haven't won enough games.

Get on him for next year I think.

I thought he was better than Deledio and Stanton. The votes don't always go to the medal winner. Jack kicked 7 and presented a medal against the Saints and only got the 1. But yeah he could get anywhere from 0-3 (3 unlikely though since the Tiges lost). I think that's why he's so hard to predict. He's been so consistent he's been top 5-6 in probably 15-18 games. It's just hard to tell exactly how he'll poll. Maybe he doesn't have much luck and polls ~17-18, or maybe he gets some of those votes in lesser games and gives 30 a nudge. Hard to tell.

I've tried to downplay the ump bias as much as I can. He's had some unusual games as well in the past. In his first year he got 2 votes for a 15 possesion 0 goal game against the Hawks. His style of play is eye catching, he never answers back, he plays in the guts and gets lots of frees.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Umpires are hesistant to give votes to losing teams, only freaks like Gazza can get the 2s and 3s regularly in losing sides. Cotchin is getting good, but no one is in the same class as Ablett. Richmond just haven't won enough games.

Highest percentage of voting games in losses since 1984 (min. 37 losses). Columns are number of losses, total votes, losses where votes were polled, percentage of losses in which votes were polled, votes polled after 37 games (i.e. equal to Cotchin at the start of the year), polling games after 37 losses:

Rk Player             Los Vt VM  % VM V37 37
--------------------------------------------
 1 Buckley, Nathan    156 58 33 21.15  10  5
 2 Ablett junior, Gary 77 27 14 18.18   3  3
 3 Harvey, Robert     174 52 30 17.24   9  6
 4 Judd, Chris         79 24 13 16.46   8  4
 5 Kelly, Paul        134 43 21 15.67   4  2
 6 Bain, David         77 20 12 15.58  14  9
 7 West, Scott        158 41 24 15.19   7  3
 8 Cousins, Ben       113 28 17 15.04  12  7
 9 Moore, Peter        41 14  6 14.63   9  6*
10 Morwood, Paul       48  8  7 14.58   7  6*
11 Priddis, Matt       55 10  8 14.55  14  6
12 Bairstow, Mark      50 11  7 14.00  11  5
13 Swan, Dane          58 12  8 13.79   1  1
14 Sandilands, Aaron   81 18 11 13.58   2  2
15 Daicos, Peter       53 11  7 13.21  11  7*
16 Crawford, Shane    144 26 19 13.19   5  4
17 Voss, Michael      116 24 15 12.93   4  3
18 Goodes, Adam       124 30 16 12.90   -  -
19 Hird, James         93 15 12 12.90   3  2
20 Sidebottom, Allan   39 11  5 12.82  11  5*
21 Black, Simon       125 30 16 12.80   9  3
...
23 Brown, Jonathan     77 11  9 11.69   5  2
24 Pavlich, Matthew   140 23 16 11.43   2  2
25 Mitchell, Sam       88 17 10 11.36  10  5
29 Cooney, Adam        71 18  8 11.27  13  6
30 Kerr, Daniel        80 17  9 11.25   7  4
37 Dal Santo, Nick     74 15  8 10.81  15  7
38 Swallow, Andrew     56 10  6 10.71   -  -
39 Thompson, Scott     85 14  9 10.59   3  2
44 Chapman, Paul       69 11  7 10.14   6  3
46 Hodge, Luke         91 16  9  9.89   5  3
48 Burgoyne, Shaun     61 14  6  9.84   4  2
54 Boak, Travis        52  9  5  9.62   5  3
55 Riewoldt, Nick      84 14  8  9.52  15  7
57 Stanton, Brent      95 16  9  9.47   7  5
58 Watson, Jobe        74  9  7  9.46   -  -
62 McVeigh, Jarrad     65 11  6  9.23   -  -
75 Boyd, Matthew       83 14  7  8.43   -  -
83 Cotchin, Trent      37  5  3  8.11   5  3
87 Harvey, Brent      138 18 11  7.97   4  2

* career started before 1984

Cotchin's polling in losing games is no worse than several future winners at the same stage - Ablett, Kelly, Swan, Crawford, Goodes, Hird - as well as this year's favourite.

Remember too that Buckley and Goodes only polled two 3's when they shared the 2003 Medal.

 

[Tiger2709]

might get crucified on here but.... I don't have Cotchin in my top 5

Why, it's your choice and if your betting then it's your money, the Brownlow is so hard to pick especially when Judd isn't in the running, what will the Umps do with all those votes they usually allocate to Judd is anyone's guess.

 

[eaglespremiers]

Why, it's your choice and if your betting then it's your money, the Brownlow is so hard to pick especially when Judd isn't in the running, what will the Umps do with all those votes they usually allocate to Judd is anyone's guess.

Judd still played though.
Will probably get about 15ish votes.

 

[Yelle]

I wish some of these Richmond supporters stopped pumping up Cotchin's tyres. Is it as annoying if you're an opposition supporter?

 

[Duritz]

I wish some of these Richmond supporters stopped pumping up Cotchin's tyres. Is it as annoying if you're an opposition supporter?

It's assuaged somewhat by the egg waiting to empty on their faces Brownlow night.

 

[ams4crows]

I've got Thompson getting 31-34 votes and Dangerfield 24-27 votes

I think Thompson is gonna win it. His start to the season was just as good as Watson's and he finished off the Season pretty well too....... unlike Watson

 

[Duritz]

I've got Thompson getting 31-34 votes and Dangerfield 24-27 votes

I think Thompson is gonna win it. His start to the season was just as good as Watson's and he finished off the Season pretty well too....... unlike Watson

He'll bolt in, IMO. Have him going for a big stack, and going to have more on.

 

[The_Big_Ship]

Top 10 from my count.

Cotchin 28
Watson 27
Ablett 25
Thompson 24
Dangerfield 23
Beams 23
Kennedy 20
Swan 20
Mitchell 20
Selwood 19

 

[Blaz]

My top 10

Swan - 28
Watson - 28
Dangerfield - 26
Beams - 26
Thompson - 25
Selwood - 24
Ablett - 24
Pendlebury - 21
Cotchin - 21
Kennedy - 20

3 Collingwood players over 20 votes... sharing 75 votes between them? Riddle me that.