Opinion Why are there So Many Poor teams in 2025

[WillHayward]

There's always been an overrepresentation from the country too. I think it's because playing footy is a big part of life in country towns, and more aspire to play as a career.

That may be a factor, but as they integrate more migrant children will luck it up. It seems it's been more significant among Africans than other groups, though, especially South Sudanese, as they have the athletic traits that suit our game. Far more African or even part African American players than Asian players, despite there being far more Asian Australians, many born here. AFL should try to grow the game in those communities. That's why it was such a shame Lin Jong's career was cruelled by injury. You did and do have a few Lebanese players which is good.

Agree with all that.


One thing to consider is that Indians and Chinese combined make up 7% of the total population in Australia but 0% of AFL lists.

It's going to be interesting to see how it pans out.

 

[PerthBoy86]

Agree with all that.


On the downside Indians and Chinese combined make up 7% of the total population in Australia but 0% of AFL lists.

It's going to be interesting to see how it pans out.

I remember Richmond was trying to specifically target the Chinese community to grow it's fan base. It was during the lean years of the early 2010s for context so maybe they needed them. I don't know why Hawthorn don't as they have the Box Hill Hawks, in an overwhelmingly Chinese area. Footscray do seem to have an association with the Vietnamese and Africans. I'm of Asian Australian myself, and when I was going to a Bombers Eagles match (I wasn't a member that year) someone (himself Indian) from the EFC came up to me and said, we're trying to promote the game among new migrants, do you want free tickets. I told him that's alright I'm Aussie myself and I'm an Eagles fan anyway, but he kind of insisted (maybe he gets a commission), so have me a ticket and a Bombers cap, which I of course never wore and promptly gave away haha.

But yes, even among those born/grew up here, non European spectators are under-represented at games. It is changing with the younger gen a bit, but I don't see any coming up in the draft. Guess there are still some cultural and other reasons.

 

[Bipolar Bear]

Talent is only going to get thinner with the introduction of Tasmania (if it happens).

The AFL needs to work better in non-VIC grass roots footy, it's almost dead in Tasmania but has experienced a surge of late with the hope of a new team. In 15 years, Tassie will be producing 5-10 AFL ready talents every year, if we get a team.

The talent is there, it needs to be harnessed.

Country kids and private school kids become AFL players because the culture and system is there. They believe they can do it and it's achievable for them, as they see others do it.

Don't underestimate what's going on in the Sudanese and Muslim communities when it comes to footy at the moment also. Houli, Saad, Daw, Aliir etc. have done huge things for belief within their community. Even in Hobart I have seen Sudanese kids training at the local footy ground, which is great to see. You saw the same stuff in the 90s with all the Italian/Greek names coming through, that's all just normal now. Just you wait when an Indian or Chinese kid becomes a good footy player!

Wherever the AFL puts effort into grass roots footy, is where the gains will come. The talent is all over Australia.

 

[WillHayward]

The AFL needs to work better in non-VIC grass roots footy, it's almost dead in Tasmania but has experienced a surge of late with the hope of a new team. In 15 years, Tassie will be producing 5-10 AFL ready talents every year, if we get a team.

The talent is there, it needs to be harnessed.

Country kids and private school kids become AFL players because the culture and system is there. They believe they can do it and it's achievable for them, as they see others do it.

Don't underestimate what's going on in the Sudanese and Muslim communities when it comes to footy at the moment also. Houli, Saad, Daw, Aliir etc. have done huge things for belief within their community. Even in Hobart I have seen Sudanese kids training at the local footy ground, which is great to see. You saw the same stuff in the 90s with all the Italian/Greek names coming through, that's all just normal now. Just you wait when an Indian or Chinese kid becomes a good footy player!

Wherever the AFL puts effort into grass roots footy, is where the gains will come. The talent is all over Australia.

We have had Italian players since well before the 90s.

Easier to adapt with such a strong football culture.

I don't think it will be the same for Chinese and Indians for a whole bunch of reasons.
No football culture in India at all (FIFA ranking #125).
And of course we have had Chinese migrants here for centuries.

So id be far less confident than you that it will all just magically work out.

A fertility rate of 1.63 is pretty significant.

 

[PerthBoy86]

Just you wait when an Indian or Chinese kid becomes a good footy player!

Lin Jong was a decent role player, was BOG in the 2016 VFL GF, which the Dogs also won that year. Of course got injuried in that finals campaigns, or else could've even been a premiership player. He's of Chinese/Timorese decent and grew up in Clayton.

I think there's definitely the talent among Chinese, Vietnamese etc Australians. Peter Bell was half Korean, born in Korea. Mitch Owens at St Kilda is half Japanese and pretty good. A few players of Chinese descent (full or partial) have played the game since the early days of the VFL actually.

 

[PerthBoy86]

Speaking of Asian Australians in sport...I notice they're pretty well represented in tennis (timely as Wimbledon is on). I include part Asians too. Culturally, Asians seem to gravitate to racquet sports including tennis and of course badminton, table tennis etc (which isn't news to anyone lol).

 

[CURVE]

Speaking of Asian Australians in sport...I notice they're pretty well represented in tennis (timely as Wimbledon is on). I include part Asians too. Culturally, Asians seem to gravitate to racquet sports including tennis and of course badminton, table tennis etc (which isn't news to anyone lol).

And the most common racquet sport of all... Golf.

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

Give me a break people.

Stop making absurd excuses for AFLs failures.

 

[PerthBoy86]

And the most common racquet sport of all... Golf.

Aren't there quite a Korean Australian golfers, like Americans?

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

And the most common racquet sport of all... Golf.

Huh?

Badminton is the most popular racquet sport in the world. Has like 5x the amount of participants that golf has.

 

[WillHayward]

Lin Jong was a decent role player, was BOG in the 2016 VFL GF, which the Dogs also won that year. Of course got injuried in that finals campaigns, or else could've even been a premiership player. He's of Chinese/Timorese decent and grew up in Clayton.

I think there's definitely the talent among Chinese, Vietnamese etc Australians. Peter Bell was half Korean, born in Korea. Mitch Owens at St Kilda is half Japanese and pretty good. A few players of Chinese descent (full or partial) have played the game since the early days of the VFL actually.

How many Chinese or Chinese descent AFL players?

How many Indian ?

Also I don't want people to be hung up on race.
This really misses the point about the fertility rate issue.

The fertility rate is 1.63. that includes migrant kids!

So the big issue isn't about race . The big issue is about age distribution.

Fewer kids aged 14-17 playing the sport

Lots more migrants aged in 20s and 30s.

So even accounting for migrant kids the fertility rate is still low.

Also we need to account for basketball and soccer

SA is going well. Qld is going great. Big population surge in WA but the numbers being drafted is a big concern. NSW still well below expectations.

So I'm predicting a pretty big drop off in talent in the coming decade overall unless we see more growth in Qld and something dramatic would need to happen in NSW to get more players.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

if you had the choice of 1,000,000 Indians or 10,000 South Sudanese to choose talent from you are taking the Sudanese every day of the week. The problem for the AFL is that most of the migration to this country isn’t going to help them.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

How many Chinese or Chinese descent AFL players?

How many Indian ?

Also I don't want people to be hung up on race.
This really misses the point about the fertility rate issue.

The fertility rate is 1.63. that includes migrant kids!

So the big issue isn't about race . The big issue is about age distribution.

Fewer kids aged 14-17 playing the sport

Lots more migrants aged in 20s and 30s.

So even accounting for migrant kids the fertility rate is still low.

Also we need to account for basketball and soccer

SA is going well. Qld is going great. Big population surge in WA but the numbers being drafted is a big concern. NSW still well below expectations.

So I'm predicting a pretty big drop off in talent in the coming decade overall unless we see more growth in Qld and something dramatic would need to happen in NSW to get more players.

Also when people talk about Tasmanian footy going backwards often forget to mention less kids are being born then 50 years ago (about 60% less then the peak) of course they are going to go backwards.

 

[Robroy22]

Yeah this certainly plays a part in it. The AFL clearly wanted to give us a big whack for what our prez has been saying and our draw has again been brutal this year.

Last year our draw in the first 9 rounds was obscenely challenging, resulting in our season being over before it started, and this year it was another brutal first 9 rounds, and now, 16 games in, we’ve played just 5 games against bottom 9 teams!

5 games against the bottom 9
11 games against the top 9

Most of our games against weak teams for the year come in the last 5 weeks (4 in a row), by which time our season will be long over.

Exactly.

 

[WillHayward]

Also when people talk about Tasmanian footy going backwards often forget to mention less kids are being born then 50 years ago (about 60% less then the peak) of course they are going to go backwards.

Yep.

Tassie fertility rate is only 1.51.

Well below replacement. So far fewer kids.

Source

Births, Australia, 2024

Statistics about births and fertility rates for Australia, states and territories, and sub-state regions

www.abs.gov.au

 

[PenfoldsFan]

lets break down the "8" shall we.

Collingwood nearly always make it. They play the majority of there games at the MCG, travel less than anyone else. This leaves 7 spots

Geelong nearly always make it. They win enough home games to make the 8 and then need to beat up on crap or interstate teams to finish top 4. That leaves 6 spots

One of the big 4 (Essendon, Carlton, Collingwood, Richmond, Hawthorn) Melbourne clubs often fill this position. Right now it's Hawthorn.

Law of averages suggests 1 of the most western teams (Freo, WCE, P.A, Adel) will make the 8. That leaves 4 spots

Law of averages suggests 1 of the northern teams (Bris, GCS, GWS, Syd) will make the 8. That leaves 3 spots

Law of averages suggests 1 more interstate team will make finals. leaving 1 spot

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The last two positions can be filled buy anyone

Yeah, the 8 is split, never claimed it wasnt, and the next 3 in line are non Victorian.
Now redo it and tell us how often Vic clubs occupy 6 out of the bottom 7 positions.

And then consider that Vic clubs, inparticular Hawthorn, have had an unbelieveable good run ftom the Umpiring against interstate clubs, the interstate clubs could easily have more W's and the Vics more L's.

 

[hawkman]

I'll give you one I don't thinks been mentioned yet....a reason there's so many poor teams in 2025 is due to a terribly manipulated draw (fixture...call it what you like)

In the olden days when everyone played twice (home and away) the lesser teams got to play themselves more often. That led to more evenness in results and only a couple of really poor teams each season. Injuries to key players didn't affect teams so much either because lists were over 50 players a club and you could always just bring in new talent from the lower leagues as required.

The draw in 2025 has handed some top eight teams very cosy fixtures against the cellar dwellers which constantly pours the pressure on these struggling sides to avoid getting belted each week. Struggling young or inexperienced teams getting smashed by 50-80 points a week must dilute the players will to continue competing and the cycle just spirals downwards.

The AFL fixture guru's gambled on Carlton and Essendon being clubs on the rise this season (alongside the perennial Golden children GWS and GC) and the fixture's they had were meant to boost them into contention. It has in fact done nothing of the sort although the Cats are now going to go on a run of "easy pickings" right up till finals time.

The AFL draw has been compromised for many years, we've all known that. This year however they've got it more WRONG than usual and its had a detrimental effect on sides that are now deemed to be "poor".

The double ups have really only just started, I know for Hawthorn they only start next week. The split between the top and bottom 9 has occurred during the 1st round of matches

 

[geelong_crazy26]

There are 9 teams up to standard this season. At a pinch maybe you can excuse the swans and dons because injuries. We just seeing so many uncompetitive games and big blow out even in prime time games. The AFL must be disappointed we have had so few great games where the results have been close. Evey year they roll out the line the competition is so close this season but in reality the bottom 8 (exclude the swans) are miles behind.

This isn’t a thing since this year, but has been a thing since probably 2016 onwards as a result of the AFL’s equity changes to cap soft cap spending and the expansion teams watering down the competitive standard of the game.

It’s been a crap standard across the board for some time bow

 

[aussierulesrules]

I don’t have anything of value to add to the discussion, but I’d really like you to pay me some attention please.

Ok, here you go.

 

[aussierulesrules]

The draw is mostly fair, in terms of double-ups, with one glaring exception.

Double-up matches against top-9 teams

Brisbane 5
Collingwood 4
Adelaide, Gold Coast, GWS, Hawthorn, Bulldogs 3
Fremantle, Geelong 2

Port Adelaide, St Kilda 4
Essendon, Melbourne, Sydney, West Coast 3
Carlton, North, Richmond 2

Really, there's not much in it between the draws of the haves and the have nots.

Brisbane drew a very short straw - their easiest double-up match is Sydney.

Collingwood, Port and St Kilda have it slightly tough.
Geelong and Fremantle have it slightly easy. Mind you, so do Carlton and they haven't done anything with it.

When you play teams has a huge bearing on things.

The AFL desperately wants Gold Coast to be successful, so what do they do (on top of everything else they’ve done to help ensure success for them), they give them a draw that includes all of the bottom 6 teams from last year in the first 6 rounds this year.

So they naturally get off to a flier, get confidence and momentum up the wazoo, and that alone will take them a very long way.

A team like St Kilda on the other hand, they want to punish, or don’t care about, so they give us a brutal first 9 weeks (as we had last year as well), and put most of our easiest games for the year in the last 5 weeks. By which time, our season is long over, and the confidence and momentum we could gain from that period doesn’t help us much at all.

Pretty much everything in the AFL is manipulated towards certain teams being or continuing to be successful.

The rich get richer, and the poor are pretty much left to fend for themselves, against huge odds.

 

[HairyO]

It's getting increasingly difficult to rebuild as a result of all of the concession, father/son, and academy picks. Talent is only going to get thinner with the introduction of Tasmania (if it happens). You really need to be nailing late picks and developing them well but that can be compromised by football department spending caps.

Yep, the more the comp grows the worse the quality of the game we gets. We dont have enough highly skilled players, we dont have enough highly skilled umpires and we 100% do not have enough highly skilled administrators.

When undeserving clubs get priority access to the best kids we see a further acceleration of the decline in the game.

 

[Catsace]

There's always been an overrepresentation from the country too. I think it's because playing footy is a big part of life in country towns, and more aspire to play as a career.

That may be a factor, but as they integrate more migrant children will luck it up. It seems it's been more significant among Africans than other groups, though, especially South Sudanese, as they have the athletic traits that suit our game. Far more African or even part African American players than Asian players, despite there being far more Asian Australians, many born here. AFL should try to grow the game in those communities. That's why it was such a shame Lin Jong's career was cruelled by injury. You did and do have a few Lebanese players which is good.

It may be as mentioned that say with Indian migrants, they are more recent arrivals and have come here as youngish adults, mid 20's so playing footy just isn't going to happen with the first iteration, although many do play cricket which is super popular there of course. Plus is a game one can play at lower levels as it's not quite as physical as footy.

Maybe the next 10-15 years could see a few players of Indian descent start to filter into the local leagues, I am well out of any local footy loop, do Auskick groups have kids of Indian descent playing? There's also a large Chinese diaspora which probably have been here a little longer than most of the Indian cohort, and even Filipinos make up the 5th largest migrant group. But there as yet hasn't been a great number of people from this segment who have made a meaningful impact in the game at a high level. Obviously cricket is more popular for the Indians, but perhaps the east Asian cohort just aren't into sport as much, or parental guidance is into perhaps other areas rather than sport?

Local sides in areas like Tarniet and areas in Melbourne's West, has the demographic makeup of sides in those areas changed over recent seasons...anyone in the know?

 

[Catsace]

Lin Jong was a decent role player, was BOG in the 2016 VFL GF, which the Dogs also won that year. Of course got injuried in that finals campaigns, or else could've even been a premiership player. He's of Chinese/Timorese decent and grew up in Clayton.

I think there's definitely the talent among Chinese, Vietnamese etc Australians. Peter Bell was half Korean, born in Korea. Mitch Owens at St Kilda is half Japanese and pretty good. A few players of Chinese descent (full or partial) have played the game since the early days of the VFL actually.

Matthew Stokes Mum was Filipino I believe.

 

[Robroy22]

The double ups have really only just started, I know for Hawthorn they only start next week. The split between the top and bottom 9 has occurred during the 1st round of matches

It's not only the double ups that disadvantage some sides and assist others, its also the when and WHERE games get played. Pies do ok playing the MCG tenants (and Geelong) there but then ALWAYS play Brissy, GC, GWS, away. In the period 2000-2018 Pies played Sydney (the original AFL lovechild) twice in 18 years in Melbourne (except in finals). The AFL has done the same to us with GC.... Coll has played the Suns 16 times since 2010, 12 of those on the GC.

So its not simply when you play teams (eg. we play the AFL fav teams once a year) but you always seem to play them on their home ground as well.

And we're one of the "luckier sides" when it comes to the draw because at least we know (through Eddie's smart move to the MCG from Viccy Park) that we'll play the other tenants there.

The unlucky clubs that took the AFL and Channel 7's bribe to move to Docklands (smart thinking Collo)...they've been shafted for years.

 

[Hobbes]

It's not only the double ups that disadvantage some sides and assist others, its also the when and WHERE games get played. Pies do ok playing the MCG tenants (and Geelong) there but then ALWAYS play Brissy, GC, GWS, away. In the period 2000-2018 Pies played Sydney (the original AFL lovechild) twice in 18 years in Melbourne (except in finals). The AFL has done the same to us with GC.... Coll has played the Suns 16 times since 2010, 12 of those on the GC.

So its not simply when you play teams (eg. we play the AFL fav teams once a year) but you always seem to play them on their home ground as well.

And we're one of the "luckier sides" when it comes to the draw because at least we know (through Eddie's smart move to the MCG from Viccy Park) that we'll play the other tenants there.

The unlucky clubs that took the AFL and Channel 7's bribe to move to Docklands (smart thinking Collo)...they've been shafted for years.

I suspect that big Melbourne clubs play interstate clubs away by choice. You’d rather get the crowds and the cash by playing Carlton, Richmond and Essendon at home. Collingwood don’t want to waste a home game playing Gold Coast, GWS or Fremantle.