Will we make finals?

[footscray1973]

Give it a week or so and we will have the pick of David Noble and possibly his entire assistant team to spruce up our own assistants.

Can't wait for that one.

 

[_Mike_]

Bevo in his presser mentioned there's still a third of a season to go, thereabouts, and that nothing's set in stone with the 8. I wonder if he's looked at the fixture?

 

[BEaston]

Bevo in his presser mentioned there's still a third of a season to go, thereabouts, and that nothing's set in stone with the 8. I wonder if he's looked at the fixture?

I'm sure he has but what kind of coach would pencil in their team for losses?

 

[Sentinel]

Bevo in his presser mentioned there's still a third of a season to go, thereabouts, and that nothing's set in stone with the 8. I wonder if he's looked at the fixture?

Can you possibly blame him for being optimistic, at least publicly? We're a game outside the 8 and should be inside it if we win this week. This time of the year in 2019 we were also sitting 10th but had won 1 less game, yet finished the season in 7th position.

No coach is going to declare the season done at this stage because the draw looks a little tricky, particularly not Bevo who thrives on this stuff (see the 2016 and 2021 finals series).

 

[doggies ftw]

Bevo can say what he wants externally but if he’s not currently looking towards next year internally he’s a ****ing idiot

 

[_Mike_]

Can you possibly blame him for being optimistic, at least publicly? We're a game outside the 8 and should be inside it if we win this week. This time of the year in 2019 we were also sitting 10th but had won 1 less game, yet finished the season in 7th position.

No coach is going to declare the season done at this stage because the draw looks a little tricky, particularly not Bevo who thrives on this stuff (see the 2016 and 2021 finals series).

Focusing on addressing the current form and team deficiencies would be a good starting point.

 

[Sentinel]

Focusing on addressing the current form and team deficiencies would be a good starting point.

Who says he isn't? There's always going to be more going on behind closed doors than what the coach says in the media. Sure he could have chosen to make more of a point about acknowledging our form issues during his presser but he's still going to talk up our finals chances if asked, with the alternative to throw in the towel?

 

[BEaston]

Focusing on addressing the current form and team deficiencies would be a good starting point.

lol, which coach wouldn't be doing those things constantly?

 

[BEaston]

thomas the tank engines aside

 

[go the dogs]

win next 2 we may scrape in lose either and we miss.

 

[_Mike_]

win next 2 we may scrape in lose either and we miss.

a hard slog ahead and I cant imagine any supporter preferring we dont make it. IMO they have to make the 8 off the back of a GF

 

[Dogs Rule]

Bevo in his presser mentioned there's still a third of a season to go, thereabouts, and that nothing's set in stone with the 8. I wonder if he's looked at the fixture?

I love how he said something like no need to panic. He could be in a burning building on fire and would think there's no reason to panic.

 

[dogwatch]

I just did a 5-second Ladder Calculator.

I reckon we win one of the next three (no idea which one, so I'll guess Freo). Then we might win the last two if we're still keen enough after having already blown any chance of a finals berth.

That gives us 12 wins and 10 losses. So likely 9th.

On the positive side that's pick #10 in the draft* and a full pre-season.


*Unless the AFL takes pity on North and West Coast and gives them priority picks.

 

[BIG_BONTS]

My crystal ball says we're beating Melbourne this week by 5 points

 

[Brian Perrin]

Nobody is seeing what Bulldog destiny dictates

We win the next 3 and drop the last 2 and miss the 8 on percentage


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Fossie 32]

Nobody is seeing what Bulldog destiny dictates

We win the next 3 and drop the last 2 and miss the 8 on percentage


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[gordo2016]

Did a ladder predictor and had us finishing 8th on 52 points. Carlton to drop out, losing to Brisbane, Melbourne and Collingwood. Gave Richmond the win against Freo next week, but if they lose could also end up on 52. Reckon we can beat Melbourne and Freo at Telstra and will need to.

 

[josh the gent]

I just did a 5-second Ladder Calculator.

I reckon we win one of the next three (no idea which one, so I'll guess Freo). Then we might win the last two if we're still keen enough after having already blown any chance of a finals berth.

That gives us 12 wins and 10 losses. So likely 9th.

On the positive side that's pick #10 in the draft* and a full pre-season.


*Unless the AFL takes pity on North and West Coast and gives them priority picks.

Was that before or after the Roos upset the Tigers?!

 

[dogwatch]

Was that before or after the Roos upset the Tigers?!

Wouldn't matter I reckon.
There will be some results we're not expecting - there always are - but the rule of thumb is 12 wins isn't enough most years, but 13 will get you in pretty much every year. A huge percentage might help with only 12 wins but that seems unlikely given our draw.

So the equation is simple.

Win 3 of our next 5 and we probably miss out (say a 30% chance of making the finals).​

Win 4 of our next 5 and we finish in the lower part of the eight.​

And if we really want to dream:

Win 5 of our next 5 and we finish close to top 4. Probably 5th-6th with a home final but maybe a rough chance at 4th.​

This is just the dogwatch 5-second ladder calculator method of course. Maybe not as much fun as going through every game for every club but just as accurate.
And a heck of a lot quicker.

 

[hutchy31]

Looks to me like 12 will be enough now given the results this weekend. The teams on 9 (saints, tigers, dogs) all have at least two games v top four teams and given how they’re all playing there don’t look to be many guaranteed wins for any of them in the other games.

Suns have the easiest run home but today hit them hard - loss plus percentage. They or port need to win 4 of 5 now to even get to 12 wins, which is unlikely.

TAB have tigers at 1.80 to make it, dogs at 2.50 and others 4.50 or higher. Likely tigers or us sneaking into eighth, possibly v pies at the G?

Next two weeks will see if there’s much to this team this year, jagging one win would be great but avoiding percentage dents from a big loss or two is critical. Then at least winning the last three and getting in might be a possibility.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

We need to factor in Marvel we have only lost 2 games. The blues game by 11 points which we blew with terrible goal kicking especially in the last quarter. The cats again gave away a big start lost by 13 points won most of the stats but could not convert enough of our opportunities. If we win all our marvel games dees, dockers, giants plus the hawks game we finish on 13 wins and probably make it.

 

[josh the gent]

I’m such a sucker - back to being hopeful/optimistic.

It was the Roos upset that did it

Plus the buffalo goal celebrations, and the fact that Bruce was back and we immediately looked better…

 

[1961grandfinal]

and the fact that Bruce was back and we immediately looked better…

This. His leadership has been badly missed, not just the joy and encouragement he conveys but also the on field coaching he provides.

 

[TommyD13]

My quick ladder predictor suggests we only need 3 wins, though it then comes down to % between us and Richmond. Margins are crucial. Can't afford to be blown away even though we can theoretically afford to lose. And must put teams away unlike on Friday against the Saints.

 

[Contador]

Pies a fair chance of losing their last 5 and ending up on 12 wins too - just need the bombers to get up next week.