Will we make finals?

[Deadly Darcy]

We’ll get there and when we do we can hurt them. Finally getting the team back that we need on the field and Buku gives us some hope our backline can hold together. We still need a Logue or someone similar to intercept down there next year but it’s coming together at the right time for us and I think we’ll make a run at it! Thank **** for Norf!!

 

[Flags_In_The_Bag]

If it is 13 games to get in, we will have to win one of Geelong or Melbourne to get in, Freo at Marval and they Haks and Giants we should beat

 

[bobs head soup]

Wouldn't matter I reckon.
There will be some results we're not expecting - there always are - but the rule of thumb is 12 wins isn't enough most years, but 13 will get you in pretty much every year. A huge percentage might help with only 12 wins but that seems unlikely given our draw.

So the equation is simple.

Win 3 of our next 5 and we probably miss out (say a 30% chance of making the finals).​

Win 4 of our next 5 and we finish in the lower part of the eight.​

And if we really want to dream:

Win 5 of our next 5 and we finish close to top 4. Probably 5th-6th with a home final but maybe a rough chance at 4th.​

This is just the dogwatch 5-second ladder calculator method of course. Maybe not as much fun as going through every game for every club but just as accurate.
And a heck of a lot quicker.

It's not quite right to say 12 wins isn't enough most years.

Since the top 8 was introduced, 49 teams have finished on 12 wins. Of those, 38 have made finals and 11 have missed, so 12 is usually enough.

 

[Del165892]

We should beat the Cats at GMHBA. We are due for a win down there.

 

[Maverick Dog]

ShoulD be a big chance against Dees after their Alice road trip and 6 day break. No excuses, Dees are playing average atm

 

[dogwatch]

It's not quite right to say 12 wins isn't enough most years.

Since the top 8 was introduced, 49 teams have finished on 12 wins. Of those, 38 have made finals and 11 have missed, so 12 is usually enough.

Fair enough. I did say it was the dw 5-second method!
It was obviously a bit tongue-in-cheek. My point being that spending hours poring over the possible results of every other match is fraught with traps and is no more accurate than a wet finger in the air.


Anyway on that basis 12 wins would give us a 75% chance.

Being the 5-second method I didn't even refer back to my own research that I'd done and posted in this thread three weeks ago which pretty much said the same thing. I was trying to show the people who were doing ladder predictors and saying we'd need 14 wins to make the finals that they were very unlikely to be correct.

As there were a different number of teams before the GWS/GCS expansion I think the best guide is the results since 2013. Here's what I wrote about that:

Since 1994 when the finals system moved to a top 8 (albeit with a different playoff formula back then) the eighth side has only had 13 or more wins on five occasions. The average number of wins for the eighth side has been 11.8 and the lowest number of wins has been 10.

Since 2013 when the AFL had bedded in the 18-side comp (a year after GWS started and 2 years after GCS) here are the wins the eighth placed side had:
2013 11
2014 12
2015 13
2016 12
2017 12
2018 13
2019 12
[2020 - disregard - it was a 17 round season due to Covid]
2021 11

So while it's reasonable to think we will need 13 wins we would have a pretty good chance of playing finals with 12 wins.

In other words, in those 8 seasons since then (ignoring 2020 due to shorter covid season) you twice needed 13 wins to make the finals, on four occasions 12 wins was enough and on two other occasions 11 wins was enough.

So it still stacks up to be about a 75% chance with 12 wins.

2022 may well be a bit harder because North and West Coast have been easybeats so every other club is registering more wins and higher percentage at their expense ... but that didn't seem to be a problem in 2013 when it was GCS and GWS in that boat.

 

[Foxman98]

No Freo are shit

 

[BallaratBulldog]

Still no. I just know we will drop the hawks game in Tassie or something

 

[Sentinel]

Richmond have done us a massive favour shitting the bed 3 weeks running but we're still probably 50-50 at best given who we've got the next 2 weeks.

 

[hutchy31]

If (and it’s still obviously a big if) we scrape into 8th, there’s a chance we would end up playing Brisbane away or the dees. I’m not a big ladder predictor guy (because I’m terrible at it and this time of year is too unpredictable) but if one or both of them drop a couple then Sydney could jump into top four with their run. Both have got tough runs home and play each other in the last round so it’s possible.

Rematch of last year’s SF up there, or a GF rematch in an elimination final at the G would be massive.

Still think we’ll need three wins out of the last four to get there and next week v cats down there is as hard as it gets, so not that confident. Last night’s win made it significantly more achievable though.

 

[Del165892]

I don't think we scrape in this year. We just left our run a little too late. Reckon we win 2 of our next 4 and just miss out.

 

[hutchy31]

I don't think we scrape in this year. We just left our run a little too late. Reckon we win 2 of our next 4 and just miss out.

It’s too difficult to tip the remaining games imo. I could see Richmond winning or losing all four of theirs. Saints are a decent chance to win their next two but last three are brutal.

So we could win three of our last four and miss out, or win two but still get in.

Likeliest scenario is win three to get in, which if we assume a loss at the cats means we need to win the last three. So right now my guess is you’re right, we win two of the last four and finish ninth but hopefully we’re wrong and we end up with a ripping EF game to look forward to.

 

[Sentinel]

Bookies have us at even money

 

[X_box_X]

The Blues may very well ass their way to victory here.

 

[doggies ftw]

I don't think we scrape in this year. We just left our run a little too late. Reckon we win 2 of our next 4 and just miss out.

I think we needed 3 from our last 5 to be a chance so last night is very very handy. Reallistically we need Tigs to drop 2 from here would think - Brissy and Port away being the 2

 

[Anja_Nees]

I think we needed 3 from our last 5 to be a chance so last night is very very handy. Reallistically we need Tigs to drop 2 from here would think - Brissy and Port away being the 2

With their recent form I don’t think they’re a certainty to win any individual game. Essendon have improved and Hawks can be alright sometimes. I reckon they’ll win two.

If they do that then we only have to win two, and I think we’re a good show against Freo, GWS and Hawks. Geelong is a big ask, but do that and I think it’ll be a dagger to the Tigers.

 

[fred cook]

We should beat the Cats at GMHBA. We are due for a win down there.

I said the same but in text message with a Nokia 101 mobile phone in 1996


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Chicago1]

I said the same but in text message with a Nokia 101 mobile phone in 1996


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

I used smoke signals for the same back in the 80s.

 

[Anja_Nees]

I said the same but in text message with a Nokia 101 mobile phone in 1996


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

And to think we got it done a few times in the early 2000s.

I remember watching the 2003 one, which was hilarious because we’d only won one other game to that point which was in round one also against Geelong. Patty Bowden firing deep forward…those were the days.

 

[Del165892]

FMD we haven't won in Geelong since John Howard was PM

 

[Doggies_13]

Last night was a surprise but still need to win 3 of the last 4 to make it imo

 

[The Inbetweener]

Too many variables to say for sure, but the Cats game is now a complete free swing. Massive advantage if we can win it, but if we don’t, having won the Dees game keeps us in the hunt

 

[doggies ftw]

Too many variables to say for sure, but the Cats game is now a complete free swing. Massive advantage if we can win it, but if we don’t, having won the Dees game keeps us in the hunt

I actually think we generally match up well on the cats, unlike the dees who usually blanket our strengths with their system. That’s why the loss at Etihad to them was such a disappointment considering we threw it away in the first 15 mins. Alphabet stadium is a different game though

 

[Foxman98]

The Freo game will be the decider IMO, GWS have already checked out and if we are on a streak again I think we take care of the hawks that being said realistically I think we only need to win 2 more games

 

[doggies ftw]

Pies lose today and they might not win another one for the year too or one at the most - Port, Melb, Sydney, Carlton.

3 wins would put us ahead on percentage