Would you want Goodwin next year?

[Kane McGoodwin]

At least we are all newly in agreement that Goodwin is not the answer!

Thanks Mick for bringing the board together.

 

[FR0GGY]

Why do people have Simpson ahead of Longmire?

Why not? 1 flag all

 

[Crowboto]

Goodwin is a weird clown that has sucked the life out of a list that should have won multiple premierships. They could have coached themselves to that flag. So yeh he would be a perfect fit.

 

[Moonwatcher]

No. Also want either Simpson or Buckley. Something is putting me off Longmire.
Feel he is on the decline, coaching style could maybe not gel with our list and that finals record.
But obviously still prefer over Nicks.

I imagine Longmire would phone it in at this point.

 

[adelaidecrows]

No, While Goodwin may have what it takes to get a premiership out of a good side, where he is poor is player and club culture. Melbourne had a side that should have netted them a Richmond style era instead only 1 premiership is a sub par performance and thats on Goodwin. I just dont think he has what it takes to manage a good culture long term.

 

[adelaidecrows]

The obvious choice for me is Simpson. If we were going down the route of an established and experienced coach. But id be fine with a rookie coach. Its hard to know if anyone will be any good until their shoes are under the desk and we start seeing results.

 

[AFC979810]

Its funny. All this talk about how Goodwin destroying the Demons amazing list after winning a flag.

Yet those same posters want Adam Simpson.

Simpson - 242 games, 50.4% win, 1 flag.
Goodwin - 188 games, 55.3% win, 1 flag.

Goodwin - 9th, PF, 17th, 9th, Flag in 2021.
2022 - 15 wins - Lost 2 finals.
2023 - 16 wins - Lost 2 finals by a combined 9 points
2024 - 11 wins
2025 - 0/5

Simpson -9th, GF, QF, SF led to a Flag in 2018
2019 - 16 wins - 1-1 in finals
2020 - 12 wins, 0-1 in finals
2021 - 9th
2022 - 17th
2023 - 17th
2024 - 17th - fired.

All this talk about how Melbourne had a dynasty list is bullshit. Look at all the of the multiple flag winning teams of the past 25 years and ask yourself what did they have in common:

Brisbane - Jonathan Brown, Daniel Bradshaw

Daniel Bradshaw

Age

47

Ht

190cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.8

2star

K

7.3

3star

HB

2.4

2star

M

5.3

5star

T

1.0

3star

G

2.3

5star

No current season stats available

D

9.4

3star

K

5.8

3star

HB

3.6

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.0

3star

G

2.0

5star

, Alistair Lynch
Geelong - Mooney, Tom Hawkins

26

Tom Hawkins

Age

37

Ht

197cm

Wt

105kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.2

3star

K

7.9

3star

HB

4.4

3star

M

5.5

5star

T

1.9

4star

G

2.1

5star

D

12.7

3star

K

8.6

3star

HB

4.1

3star

M

5.1

5star

T

2.1

3star

G

1.6

5star

D

7.8

2star

K

5.6

3star

HB

2.2

2star

M

4.2

4star

T

1.0

3star

G

2.2

5star

, Pods,Jeremy Cameron

5

Jeremy Cameron

Age

33

Ht

196cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.5

3star

K

9.0

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

5.4

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

2.6

5star

D

10.0

3star

K

7.1

3star

HB

2.9

2star

M

4.6

4star

T

2.0

3star

G

1.9

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

3.2

3star

M

4.6

5star

T

2.4

4star

G

2.0

5star

,
Hawthorn - Buddy / Roughhead
Richmond - Riewoldt / Lynch

Melbourne's #1 forward has been Bailey Fritsch who is the same size as Isaac Cumming

44

Isaac Cumming

Age

27

Ht

188cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.2

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

5.2

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

2.3

4star

CL

1.0

3star

D

9.5

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

4.5

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

2.5

3star

CL

0.0

1star

D

10.6

3star

K

5.6

3star

HB

5.0

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.6

4star

CL

1.2

4star

. Sure you can pinch a flag with a makeshift forward line (Melbourne 21, Collingwood 23, Bulldogs 16) but you sure as hell aint building a dynasty.

The big difference between Simpson and Goodwin is time out of the game and recency bias.

 

[Captain Furious]

The thing that concerns me most about Simpson is his weakness when things are against him. Good football mind, not a great leader of a club. Remember his constant whining during covid - when all other sport around the world was stopped, his club was permitted to travel to the Gold Coast (could be worse places) and play. And all he could do was complain.

Once things started to go downhill at WCE, he was lost, had no answers, always looked despondent and pretty much gave up.

Needs everything to be in his favor. Not the right guy for us.

 

[AFC979810]

The thing that concerns me most about Simpson is his weakness when things are against him. Good football mind, not a great leader of a club. Remember his constant whining during covid - when all other sport around the world was stopped, his club was permitted to travel to the Gold Coast (could be worse places) and play. And all he could do was complain.

Once things started to go downhill at WCE, he was lost, had no answers, always looked despondent and pretty much gave up.

Needs everything to be in his favor. Not the right guy for us.

It's an equalization league. It's extremely tough to stay up more than 6-7 years. Only Geelong have bucked this trend.

Simpson had a great success rate between 2015 - 2020.

We are a side that is entering a premiership window - we need to hire a coach based on that - not what happens on the downside.

 

[Crowked]

No. He’s done.

I also don’t think any of the experienced coaches mentioned so far are the answer. They’ve played their cards. Not many if any have had a successful second coming.

We need to identify the next coaching innovator. Most, if not all recent successful coaches have similar traits and systems, but the successful ones have evolved their core plans with something new. They’ve changed the game in some way. Whether it’s the unsociable Hawks or the extreme small forward pressure Tigers, or the final minute killing Pies. There has been some new tactic that the coach has implemented, that’s taken time for opponents to counter.

Nicks has no imagination. He’s as vanilla as any coach ever. I can’t remember him implementing anything unusual or innovative. He’s had 7 years and come up with nothing of note. Systems alone won’t cut it without having the outright best squad in the league. Something we don’t and will probably never have.

Who of the emerging assistants has that game changing potential? Who’s the difference maker? That’s our man.

 

[Captain Furious]

It's an equalization league. It's extremely tough to stay up more than 6-7 years. Only Geelong have bucked this trend.

Simpson had a great success rate between 2015 - 2020.

We are a side that is entering a premiership window - we need to hire a coach based on that - not what happens on the downside.

Sydney have only missed 2 finals series in the past 15 years.

It's not so much that Simpson had down years, it was how he dealt with it, or didn't deal with it at all. He had no answers, no plan to arrest the slide and no strength in his character throughout it beyond complaining about everything and looking like he didn't want to be there. Just like Goodwin has had no answers or plan to the forward line issues he's faced continually these past few seasons.

Let's not forget that only one single premiership (Collingwood 2010) in over 20 years has been won by a coach not in his first coaching job. Maybe an experienced coach isn't the answer - or more likely, it's probably isn't.

Of the 5 current coaches in their 2nd (or 3rd) job:

Clarkson - no improvement over several years
Brad Scott - probably gone backwards
Voss - even with an elite list, probably won't play finals yet again
Lyon - probably gone backwards

Only Hardwick has a team on the rise and that likely has more to do with a list full of 1st round picks and academy freebies + the softest draw and all the other advantages as the AFL is desperate for them to play finals.

Add to that the large scrapheap of Pagans, Eades, Wallaces, Worsfolds etc. who were abject failures at their 2nd clubs after being successful coaches.

The template for a premiership coach over the past 2 decades is surprisingly tight:

1st time senior coach (except Malthouse and he won only 1 flag in 11 seasons with every advantage Collingwood has - and failed at his next coaching gig).
Either played in a premiership winning team or was an assistant coach of a premiership winning team (Clarkson & Beveridge).

Experience of being a key part of an AFL premiership winning program is a non negotiable.

 

[AFC979810]

Sydney have only missed 2 finals series in the past 15 years.

It's not so much that Simpson had down years, it was how he dealt with it, or didn't deal with it at all. He had no answers, no plan to arrest the slide and no strength in his character throughout it beyond complaining about everything and looking like he didn't want to be there. Just like Goodwin has had no answers or plan to the forward line issues he's faced continually these past few seasons.

Let's not forget that only one single premiership (Collingwood 2010) in over 20 years has been won by a coach not in his first coaching job. Maybe an experienced coach isn't the answer - or more likely, it's probably isn't.

Of the 5 current coaches in their 2nd (or 3rd) job:

Clarkson - no improvement over several years
Brad Scott - probably gone backwards
Voss - even with an elite list, probably won't play finals yet again
Lyon - probably gone backwards

Only Hardwick has a team on the rise and that likely has more to do with a list full of 1st round picks and academy freebies + the softest draw and all the other advantages as the AFL is desperate for them to play finals.

Add to that the large scrapheap of Pagans, Eades, Wallaces, Worsfolds etc. who were abject failures at their 2nd clubs after being successful coaches.

The template for a premiership coach over the past 2 decades is surprisingly tight:

1st time senior coach (except Malthouse and he won only 1 flag in 11 seasons with every advantage Collingwood has - and failed at his next coaching gig).
Either played in a premiership winning team or was an assistant coach of a premiership winning team (Clarkson & Beveridge).

Experience of being a key part of an AFL premiership winning program is a non negotiable.

Bob Neil put in a great deal of time and analysis.

Long story short - Hiring a recycled premiership coach like Goodwin/Simpson doubles our flag chances (according to the past).

[WARNING: Long, statistically-minded post ahead.]

I wanted to add some facts into the mix on this discussion on Matthew Nicks and the point of whether or not we would be better off with a different coach.

I looked at the period from 1990-2024 which comprises 35 completed seasons (and hence 35 premierships). Over that time the competition has expanded from 14 to 18 teams but in total there have been a total of 581 'team-seasons' aka 'coach-seasons' (i.e. a team or coach that competed in a given season) and so all else being equal the likelihood of winning a premiership in a given season over this time has been 6.02% (= 35 / 581).

I then defined each individual 'coach-season' on the basis of two factors:

• Club Status
  • First Club: still coaching at their initial club
  • Recycled: now coaching at a second or subsequent club
• Premiership Status
  • True: have previously coached a premiership
  • False: have NOT previously coached a premiership

This puts all coaches into one of four categories:

• First Club/Premiership True (e.g. Chris Scott or Simon Goodwin)
• First Club/Premiership False (e.g. Matty Nicks or Ken Hinkley)
• Recycled/Premiership True (e.g. Alastair Clarkson or Damien Hardwick)
• Recycled/Premiership False (e.g. Ross Lyon)

This is how the 35 flags in the chosen period break down into these categories which might lead you to think that a first-timer is more likely to win than a recycled coach and/or that a premiership coach is no more likely to win (again) than a non-premiership coach.

COUNTA of Premiership	Coach Status
Premiership Coach (prior)	First-time	Recycled	Grand Total
TRUE	11	7	18
FALSE	15	2	17
Grand Total	26	9	35

However when you take account of the number of coach-seasons for each of these categories then the picture changes...

COUNTA of Coach-Seasons	Coach Status
Premiership Coach (prior)	First-time	Recycled	Grand Total
TRUE	115	76	191
FALSE	326	64	390
Grand Total	441	140	581

You can see that non-premiership coaches (of which there are a lot more) have coached 2x as many seasons as premiership coaches whilst coaches at their original club have coached 3x as many seasons as recycled coaches.

Factor these into the likelihood (i.e. probability) of winning a premiership in a given season and it looks like this:

	Coach Status
Premiership Coach (prior)	First-time	Recycled	Grand Total
TRUE	9.57%	9.21%	9.42%
FALSE	4.60%	3.13%	4.36%
Grand Total	5.90%	6.43%	6.02%

So whilst any given coach had a 6% chance of winning a flag in a given season a (prior) premiership coach jumps to 9.42% against 4.36% for a non-premiership coach.

In other words (all else being equal) the statistical upside for going from a first-time/non-premiership coach like Matthew Nicks (4.6%) to a recycled/premiership coach like (say) Adam Simpson (9.2%) is that you double your chances of winning a flag!

If we're looking for examples of first-club coaches without previous premiership success who subsequently won a flag after more than five seasons experience it's Bomber Thompson, Hardwick and Fagan who each did it in their 8th season.

Is Matthew Nicks a Bomber/Dimma/Fages in the making? Or is more like one of the other 66 coaches who tried and failed to win a flag over this 35 year period. That's the question our club administration needs to ask themselves...

 

[Captain Furious]

Bob Neil put in a great deal of time and analysis.

Long story short - Hiring a recycled premiership coach like Goodwin/Simpson doubles our flag chances (according to the past).

Hahahaha. 101 how you can make stats say anything. The majority of those recycled coach flags are Matthews and Blight combined. Only one coach has done it (and only once) in the modern game - ie. the past 20 years.

If we're looking at records older than that for why we should hire a recycled coach, I would suggest we're using very outdated and irrelevant data. Coaching is 2025 is a far more complex and sophisticated than the old Parkin and Sheedy yell at em and maybe throw your half back flanker forward in the last quarter method of years past. In particular, assistant coaches are the ones driving systems and innovation and their vastly expanded roles and accreditation programs have them more suited to taking senior jobs.

 

[AFC979810]

Hahahaha. 101 how you can make stats say anything. The majority of those recycled coach flags are Matthews and Blight combined. Only one coach has done it (and only once) in the modern game - ie. the past 20 years.

If we're looking at records older than that for why we should hire a recycled coach, I would suggest we're using very outdated and irrelevant data. Coaching is 2025 is a far more complex and sophisticated than the old Parkin and Sheedy yell at em and maybe throw your half back flanker forward in the last quarter method of years past. In particular, assistant coaches are the ones driving systems and innovation and their vastly expanded roles and accreditation programs have them more suited to taking senior jobs.

Absolutely.

But for every first time coach flag winner - you referenced Clarkson / Beverige - there is a leppitsch, Neeld, bolton, Nicks, Hinkley, Leppitsch, Stuart Dew, Matty Primus, Rutten, Teague - etc.

 

[Captain Furious]

Absolutely.

But for every first time coach flag winner - you referenced Clarkson / Beverige - there is a leppitsch, Neeld, bolton, Nicks, Hinkley, Leppitsch, Stuart Dew, Matty Primus, Rutten, Teague - etc.

Of course not every coach wins a flag. But clubs took a chance on Clarkson and Beveridge - and Chris Scott, Longmire, Simpson, Goodwin, McRae, Fagan, Hardwick etc. and got the rewards. For all the clubs that took the safe option and hired a recycled coach in the past 20+ years, they all failed bar Malthouse, who took a decade to win one at Collingwood.

 

[AFC979810]

Of course not every coach wins a flag. But clubs took a chance on Clarkson and Beveridge - and Chris Scott, Longmire, Simpson, Goodwin, McRae, Fagan, Hardwick etc. and got the rewards. For all the clubs that took the safe option and hired a recycled coach in the past 20+ years, they all failed bar Malthouse, who took a decade to win one at Collingwood.

So in the last 20 years - how many premiership winning coaches have been hired as a head coach?

Malthouse, Clarkson and Hardwick.

Malthouse won a flag.

Clarkson is in his 3rd season with North. He took over a hawks team that made the finals in 2001, 11 games in 2002, missed the finals by a game in 2003 winning 12 games) before having a disastrous 2004. He then took 3 seasons to make the finals and won the flag in his 4th season. He has joined the most poorly resourced team that had won 9 games across 3 seasons and was in a far worse.

Hardwick has his team 4-0 taking over a squad that has never made finals.

Even look at Ross Lyon - he made it to a GF with the Saints his first go round. Recycled and got Freo to a grand final.

Voss/Scott look to do the same in their 2nd stint as they did in their first.

Looks to me as though over the past 20 years the 6 recycled coaches performed very similar in their 2nd stint as they did in their first, which makes hiring a Goodwin or Simpson or Buckley seem like a good idea.

 

[Redline]

No to Goodwin

I don't get the love for Simpson. His last few years at West Coast were horrible. The culture and standards, just about everything about the club. That was with a relatively senior list.

 

[Alwaysacrow]

No way.

 

[AFC979810]

No to Goodwin

I don't get the love for Simpson. His last few years at West Coast were horrible. The culture and standards, just about everything about the club. That was with a relatively senior list.

It's what happens to 99.9% of young coaches and teams.

Clarkson didnt make the finals in his last 3 seasons with the Hawks. Hardwick saw the writing on the wall with Richmond after missing the finals in 2021, not winning a final in 2022, and then starting 2023 with 3 wins from 10 games.

 

[Captain Furious]

So in the last 20 years - how many premiership winning coaches have been hired as a head coach?

Malthouse, Clarkson and Hardwick.

Malthouse won a flag.

Clarkson is in his 3rd season with North. He took over a hawks team that made the finals in 2001, 11 games in 2002, missed the finals by a game in 2003 winning 12 games) before having a disastrous 2004. He then took 3 seasons to make the finals and won the flag in his 4th season. He has joined the most poorly resourced team that had won 9 games across 3 seasons and was in a far worse.

Hardwick has his team 4-0 taking over a squad that has never made finals.

Even look at Ross Lyon - he made it to a GF with the Saints his first go round. Recycled and got Freo to a grand final.

Voss/Scott look to do the same in their 2nd stint as they did in their first.

Looks to me as though over the past 20 years the 6 recycled coaches performed very similar in their 2nd stint as they did in their first, which makes hiring a Goodwin or Simpson or Buckley seem like a good idea.

You've missed quite a few there: Pagan, Worsfold, Sheedy, Thompson (gets a pass), Malthouse at Carlton. I'm not going to look back and add it all up but guessing that's about 20 years of coaching for 1 flag. Hardly a resounding success rate.

EDIT: I did go back and add it up - it's 27 years worth of coaching for 1 flag - not including Thompson's Bombers year or Sheedy's 2 GWS years - given they were never winning flags there.

Kangas look pretty much the same as they have for 7 years, even 3 years into Clarkson. Yes Dimma is 4-0 but he's only beaten 4 of the bottom 6 last year and got the biggest free kick list a coach could ask for.

Of the 3 you mentioned, Buckley never won a flag and twice ran premiership winning lists out of the finals - including finishing 2nd last with almost the same list McRae won a flag with. Would be a disaster. Simpson and Goodwin have both presided over cultural and standards failures, sending excellent lists into oblivion.

 

[Punchy Bassett]

No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no, No, no,

 

[steve9798]

Definitely not.

 

[Greenfinger]

Its funny. All this talk about how Goodwin destroying the Demons amazing list after winning a flag.

Yet those same posters want Adam Simpson.

Simpson - 242 games, 50.4% win, 1 flag.
Goodwin - 188 games, 55.3% win, 1 flag.

Goodwin - 9th, PF, 17th, 9th, Flag in 2021.
2022 - 15 wins - Lost 2 finals.
2023 - 16 wins - Lost 2 finals by a combined 9 points
2024 - 11 wins
2025 - 0/5

Simpson -9th, GF, QF, SF led to a Flag in 2018
2019 - 16 wins - 1-1 in finals
2020 - 12 wins, 0-1 in finals
2021 - 9th
2022 - 17th
2023 - 17th
2024 - 17th - fired.

All this talk about how Melbourne had a dynasty list is bullshit. Look at all the of the multiple flag winning teams of the past 25 years and ask yourself what did they have in common:

Brisbane - Jonathan Brown, Daniel Bradshaw, Alistair Lynch
Geelong - Mooney, Tom Hawkins, Pods,Jeremy Cameron,
Hawthorn - Buddy / Roughhead
Richmond - Riewoldt / Lynch

Melbourne's #1 forward has been Bailey Fritsch who is the same size as Isaac Cumming. Sure you can pinch a flag with a makeshift forward line (Melbourne 21, Collingwood 23, Bulldogs 16) but you sure as hell aint building a dynasty.

The big difference between Simpson and Goodwin is time out of the game and recency bias.

The rumours that swirl around Goodwin are another major factor.

 

[Punchy Bassett]

I'll go further, Goodwin doesn't win a flag if Covid never happened.

 

[AFC979810]

I'll go further, Goodwin doesn't win a flag if Covid never happened.

Slippery slope.

You apply the same "IF's" to all one flag coaches like Worsfold, Longmire, McRae, Simpson?