You'll never guess what the 2021 free kick differential chart looks like

[demondavey]

Hahahah you’re embarrassing yourself. You don’t personally know shi*.

So it’s beyond the realms of possibility that people who post here know people who work within AFL circles and have their face on TV? They aren’t from another planet. They live amongst us, believe it or not. Are you a fan boy who sees an AFL player in public, stops gawks, and then chuckles to yourself and gets on the socials to tell your pals?

 

[demondavey]

That makes even less sense. You realise you can follow a football team and still disagree with the actions of your teams players and also form opinions on things yeah?

Not to some of these posters. Their players are like Demi gods whom they worship.

 

[AndyD]

Of course it is agenda-driven for the outliers, misunderstanding statistical probability to say anything else.

the rest of the results looks exactly as you would expect from a stochastic process with decent sampling, tightly bunched around each other and around zero

I would think the people pointing to one outlier as proof of whatever conspiracy they want to decide on would be the ones misunderstanding statistical probability. If I flip a coin 100 times in a row and it lands on heads 100 times, it doesn’t make it anymore probable that on the 101st flip that it will land on heads. Free Kicks (as well as missed free kicks, of which there is no reliable measure of) are also not random events that occur in isolation and are meant to be distributed in any even way, given the literally 100s of factors that could come into the decision making process to decide to pay a free kick. Anybody trying to claim a positive FK differential proves any sort of point is simply misrepresenting noisy data


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[Oncewererabble]

credit: https://www.reddit.com/user/jackemcpherson

View attachment 1214360

Pretty standard apart from 2 fairly large outliers in unsociable Tigers and freekick Doggies.

Very interested to see how this holds up over the next month.

Tigers get r*ped every year yet still win flags. PruTeCted Speasheeezzzz

 

[adogsfan5]

Not to some of these posters. Their players are like Demi gods whom they worship.

Not really. It’s just amusing that it’s heavily Melbourne based in here yet you have two floppers in your team and another who’s come under scrutiny for it in the past, twice. Same rules for all, or take a hike.

 

[demondavey]

I would think the people pointing to one outlier as proof of whatever conspiracy they want to decide on would be the ones misunderstanding statistical probability. If I flip a coin 100 times in a row and it lands on heads 100 times, it doesn’t make it anymore probable that on the 101st flip that it will land on heads. Free Kicks (as well as missed free kicks, of which there is no reliable measure of) are also not random events that occur in isolation and are meant to be distributed in any even way, given the literally 100s of factors that could come into the decision making process to decide to pay a free kick. Anybody trying to claim a positive FK differential proves any sort of point is simply misrepresenting noisy data


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Pretty obvious that you don’t understand his statistics work, particularly when bias is involved.

 

[adogsfan5]

Tigers get r*ped every year yet still win flags. PruTeCted Speasheeezzzz

haha this is what I love the most. Least free kicks year after year, yet still smashed us all.

 

[demondavey]

Not really. It’s just amusing that it’s heavily Melbourne based in here yet you have two floppers in your team and another who’s come under scrutiny for it in the past, twice. Same rules for all, or take a hike.

You had a GF skewed your way because of it. You even had the AFL come out and say the umpiring was poor.

Wow.

 

[adogsfan5]

You had a GF skewed your way because of it. You even had the AFL come out and say the umpiring was poor.

Wow.

This thread isn’t about 2016 you nuffy. Which topic are you arguing about lol? This season, Weightman or 2016?

 

[demondavey]

This thread isn’t about 2016 you nuffy. Which topic are you arguing about lol? This season, Weightman or 2016?

They’re both relevant. Why would you dismiss 2016? Embarrassed that the AFL had to apologise for the umpiring? I would be as well.

This season and Weightman are correlated, as is the free kick differential.

 

[adogsfan5]

They’re both relevant. Why would you dismiss 2016? Embarrassed that the AFL had to apologise for the umpiring? I would be as well.

This season and Weightman are correlated, as is the free kick differential.

Haha with your IQ, there is no chance you know anyone in AFL ranks.

Let us know when Spargo, Pickett and Flopiver stop staging for frees.

 

[faible]

Haha with your IQ, there is no chance you know anyone in AFL ranks.

Have you met an AFL player? I wouldn't say a high IQ is a prerequisite for playing AFL, let alone knowing someone in AFL ranks.

 

[adogsfan5]

Have you met an AFL player? I wouldn't say a high IQ is a prerequisite for playing AFL, let alone knowing someone in AFL ranks.

“Knows people who work in AFL circles”.
Fat chance.

 

[G String]

umpires are not robots - they have biases - they are (hopefully) not conscious biases but none-the-less they do favour their favourite players with an unconscious bias. The players that flop and there are so many now in all teams hopefully get a reputation quickly and that umpires dont pay frees as easily for these guys. You can see now that Selwood doesn't get the same amount of love from the umps - but guys like Oliver and Weightman are still getting lots of love from the umps - hopefully the wheel turns for them sooner than later.

Nothing shits me more than watching players play for frees - either by diving forward in a tackle or dropping the knees in a tackle or rolling the shoulders - I'd love to see the umps crack down on this and not get sucked in so easily.

 

[adogsfan5]

Tigers 3 of the last 4 flags, and been “smashed by umpires”.

Oh em gee, the cerrrerrptiioonnnn!!

 

[paddy18]

Certain Dogs players enter some contests looking to win the ball via a free kick rather than in play as it were. This is just a fact. It is clearly coached into them. Weightman is one, as is Lachie Hunter.

Now ALL players stage/accentuate at times. Ben Cunnington

10

Ben Cunnington

Age

34

Ht

185cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.4

5star

K

9.0

3star

HB

12.4

5star

M

2.9

3star

T

4.7

5star

CL

5.6

5star

D

17.7

4star

K

6.0

2star

HB

11.7

5star

M

2.0

2star

T

4.0

5star

CL

4.0

5star

D

15.8

4star

K

6.4

3star

HB

9.4

5star

M

2.4

3star

T

6.2

5star

CL

3.0

5star

will drop the knees and allow himself to be propelled forward in a situation where he knows he's been tackled from behind and has no hope of getting the ball out as a last ditch attempt to win possession from the contest.

But Cunners never ENTERS the contest looking first and foremost to win the free like Weightman and Hunter often do.

The corollary is that some teams are happy to give lots of frees away. The Tigs are last here because they will regularly give up "professional frees" to try and get their backline set.

You could argue that is smart play (it helped them win flags) and if that's smart play then the Bulldogs method is also "smart" play.

I don't think it passes the proverbial pub test though. Both Weightman and Hunter are skilful gutsy players perfectly capable of winning the ball in courageous and exciting fashion, and do so regularly.

I didn't like it when it seemed Ben Brown

50

Ben Brown

Age

33

Ht

200cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.7

3star

K

7.7

3star

HB

3.0

3star

M

4.8

5star

T

1.2

3star

G

2.2

5star

D

7.9

2star

K

6.3

3star

HB

1.6

1star

M

3.7

4star

T

0.9

2star

G

1.0

4star

D

8.0

2star

K

4.6

2star

HB

3.4

3star

M

4.4

4star

T

1.4

4star

G

1.2

4star

would enter contests as much aiming to get a free as take the mark, I don't like it when others do it either.

Others will say that Lindsay Thomas has been our worst ever offender for this type of rubbish, but Andrew Swallow was far worse back in the day. Looked for a free in just about every single contest he ever went into....falling forward when tackled was his specialty. I've hated it in our players just as much as I hate in others and it really does lessen your enjoyment of the game, which is sad.

 

[adogsfan5]

umpires are not robots - they have biases - they are (hopefully) not conscious biases but none-the-less they do favour their favourite players with an unconscious bias. The players that flop and there are so many now in all teams hopefully get a reputation quickly and that umpires dont pay frees as easily for these guys. You can see now that Selwood doesn't get the same amount of love from the umps - but guys like Oliver and Weightman are still getting lots of love from the umps - hopefully the wheel turns for them sooner than later.

Nothing shits me more than watching players play for frees - either by diving forward in a tackle or dropping the knees in a tackle or rolling the shoulders - I'd love to see the umps crack down on this and not get sucked in so easily.

Why didn’t you mention grimes as an example? Nobody ever wants to mention their own players it’s hilarious.

 

[demondavey]

Haha with your IQ, there is no chance you know anyone in AFL ranks.

Let us know when Spargo, Pickett and Flopiver stop staging for frees.

Just out of curiosity, how can you judge my IQ through a series of postings that have no relevance to how an IQ score is structured?

Again. You seem to think these people are a unique species that live in a place far far away.

I am not going to entertain you any further. Good luck against Brisbane.

 

[demondavey]

Why didn’t you mention grimes as an example? Nobody ever wants to mention their own players it’s hilarious.

They all do it. All of them. But the difference is your players look for them as an obvious tactic. The statistics tell you that.

 

[RUNVS]

Bulldogs fans engaging in a lot of whataboutism in this thread.

 

[adogsfan5]

They all do it. All of them. But the difference is your players look for them as an obvious tactic. The statistics tell you that.

It’s a tactic for anyone who does it. Dropping the knees and flopping is a tactic. I’m not saying it’s a good look for the game-my point has been consistent - don’t dish it out if your own players do it and you fail to acknowledge it.

And no the stats don’t show that- if they did, we’d be leading the frees for column. We have such a high difference due to a low frees against column. So your argument has just fallen flat on its ass.

 

[Del191229]

So what everyone should acknowledge and your post exhibits perfectly, that every team has players that will have the ball as their one and only object. Dogs have them, Saints have them, North have them, the Blues have them. Exploiting the rules doesn’t ever cross their mind. Doesn’t mean they haven’t been the beneficiary of frees which could be seen as pushing the boundaries of the rules.

Every team also have players that look to exploit the rules as an immediate part of their football arsenal. Hunter, McLean and Weightman all do it. Every team has them and anyone who says otherwise is a an ignorant fool. There are levels to this, but every player is within their right to do this, some do it more obviously than others.

Hunter (along with Macrae) gut runs harder than any player on our list. This is in my book is incredibly courageous, he does so many inspirational things on the field. I don’t like that he “invites” high contact, but it’s within the rules. If it’s seen as “dropping the knees”, then the umpires have rules in their kit to deal with it. Selwood has been doing it forever and it enrages me and the greater AFL audience. However the rules are yet to change. Precedents have long been set.

Weightman yesterday was a storm in a teacup. 2 free kicks (boundary line and Draper one), could easily have been play on. Weightman didn’t call for either free, but was gifted them by the ump. Not his fault. If it didn’t happen, if he’d only kicked 2 from free kicks, this conversation would never have occurred.

Every team has them, but the Dogs have more of them and the Dogs very clearly use winning free kicks by not contesting the ball first and foremost as a strategy far more than any other team.

The thing that is really telling with Weightman and Hunter especially, is not so much the frees they get as the ones they DON'T get. They run through the whole motion/mechanics of the appealing for the free play as it were, look to the umpire with an Oliver Twistesque pleading expression, and if it isn't paid, they just continue on with the play.

There's no remonstration or bailing the umpire up, it is ah well, that one didn't work. When it DOES work, both of those have a rather queasy little smirk they drop.

 

[adogsfan5]

Bulldogs fans engaging in a lot of whataboutism in this thread.

Not really.

 

[RUNVS]

Not really.

View attachment 1221585

Claiming you are not engaging in whataboutism and then immediately engaging in whataboutism.

 

[adogsfan5]

Claiming you are not engaging in whataboutism and then immediately engaging in whataboutism.

Dogs flop. And then refuse to admit you have one of the worst floppers in the game. Which you then turn to “whataboutism” to change the subject. Nice one.