Your starting squad 2020

[Beau_Waters for PM]

At the outset I want to acknowledge the strange world we find ourselves in. It is a horrible time with so many people worldwide contracting COVID-19. I genuinely feel for anyone personally affected by this, or who has friends and family ill, or worse... And then there's the devastation of so many businesses and entire industries. Yikes. It feels strange to discuss things like AFL Fantasy at such a sobering time, when games like AFL fantasy really feel quite inconsequential in the grand scheme of things. But in the midst of social distancing and global pandemic, it's amazing to think that we've got an opportunity to use this humble online forum to carve out a sense of community where many are really isolated right now.

I've seen a bunch of posters share their starting squads but with our current threads things are a bit all over the place. Nobody really knows how much of a season we're going to get this year, but would be great to hear why you've chosen the starting squad you did. I know I have lots to learn from the collective wisdom of this forum.

To get us started I'll share mine.

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Some things that guided my starting squad strategy in 2020:

• I leaned heavily on the analysis in Moreira's Magic's fantasy guide. Player analysis is the key, because in the past I've picked guys who I had no real idea of their actual role, history or experience in the game.
• The team that will win the car is the team with the most points at the end of the season, so you've got to try and maximise points on field. But to do this you need to maximise value, so that you can be trading in more and more premiums as the season goes on
• Trying not to pick any player unless I felt they could improve on their 2019 performance. The one exception to this is Grundy.
• I filed my team in this order: 1) Select every rookie I feel is a standout (they are the best value), 2) Select some guns who I feel will be in the top line of their position at season's end, who I also think will improve on their 2019 average, 3) fill the rest of the team with the best value players.

Player picks:

• Defence pretty standard. Sicily because Hawks added Frost (CHB) and Patton (CHF) so should be freed up more. Don't have enough confidence in any rookie's job security to start them, so Cumming at D6 it is. I was keen on Cerra but not more than the other there so he got squeezed out.
• Macrae, Dunks, Cogs all had things in 2019 which suggest they could beat their average in 2020. Cogs instantly underpriced for the '0' game in 2019 (it's burned into my memory). Mid rookies pick themselves really.
• Rucks I see value in English, Jacobs and Naismith. Truth be told I had the former two guys as R1 and R2 right up until Friday morning, but my final team had $250k in the bank which was no good. So I downgraded Townsend to Ben Davis + upgraded English to Grundy. Not sure what happened in the first half of last night's game but I do still feel this will be a breakout year for English. But just couldn't fit them all. Naismith I feel will average 60-70, which makes him a good cash cow given the lack of other cash gen options outside the topline rookies I already had.
• Forwards had Bewley, B.Smith, Rozee, Wingard, Townsend all in the mix. Once Taylor and Budarick showed value I locked them in. Whitfield I doubted but ultimately he seems safe to avoid a tag and keep dominating given the GWS star-studded lineup. The other 3 seemed best value players I could get while maximising expected points. Bewley looked disinterested in the Marsh, had terrible disposal and I feel he is cusp best 22 for Freo with tough competition. Was keen on B.Smith but felt Petracca and Greenwood were safer bets given the Dogs' stacked midfield options.

 

[Corby_4]

Introducing
The Potato Farm
Speaks for itself really.

 

[JADED]

Just looked at ownership % now that all teams are locked in.

Ended up with 3 players under 5%

Bailey Smith 4%
Nick Haynes 4%
Ben Ainsworth 2%

 

[Eskimo_Fennel]

 

[VSTone]

Great opening post Beau_Waters for PM .... I can't see the season going much further at least until vaccines for the Covid-19 start to come into play. maybe add 2020 to the thread title?

The usual ham fisted start for me... a nice start by the Mullet (B Smith) and others who have managed to escape my grip in favour of this bunch of R1 point dodgers. Will see how it plays out over a few game weeks...Happiest early with the McGrath pick. Plenty of work to do though!
Still happy I've dodged Whitfield...but Dunks ffs??? I reckon there's a minefield ahead.

 

[Beau_Waters for PM]

Great opening post Beau_Waters for PM .... I can't see the season going much further at least until vaccines for the Covid-19 start to come into play. maybe add 2020 to the thread title?

The usual ham fisted start for me... a nice start by the Mullet (B Smith) and others who have managed to escape my grip in favour of this bunch of R1 point dodgers. Will see how it plays out over a few game weeks...Happiest early with the McGrath pick. Plenty of work to do though!
Still happy I've dodged Whitfield...but Dunks ffs??? I reckon there's a minefield ahead.


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Thanks mate, yeah good point re: thread title. Updated.

Your team looks quite different to a lot of the BF teams I've seen posted.

Could you talk us through the McGrath, Worpel and no Whitfield picks?

 

[VSTone]

Thanks mate, yeah good point re: thread title. Updated.

Your team looks quite different to a lot of the BF teams I've seen posted.

Could you talk us through the McGrath, Worpel and no Whitfield picks?

No Whitfield was born out of his finals efforts...a couple of 50's - was this Ankle related or closer checking?
Tigers shut him out and then couple with Sauce coming in and also becoming a marking target makes me feel a different structure is going to be in play at the Giants so I was ok to bet against him.
McGrath - when the mid time was guaranteed and a former top draft pick - super value for mine.
Worpel - best young ball magnet in the game... was expecting him to go to another level this year. I don't rate Wingard at all.
Bailey Smith is the one that got away for me - got seduced by Brayshaws pre-season fluff as it turns out. Reckon he's this years Worpel.

Edit: gave Wingard a roast for all you believers!

 

[Benjo_]

Defence: I feel like this line was the most locked for me. Smith was in for me prior to his monster Marsh game and was never considering giving him the boot. Same with Roberton.

Midfield: Always had the same structure in the mid. Was always going to start 1 Doggies mid and should've backed the reliable Macrae instead of Dunkley. Had Taylor Adams in all pre-season until that little niggle made me give him the boot Got Viney in after his monster Marsh scores (from limited TOG) and on the back of the news he had an excellent pre-season.

Ruck: Had this ruck lineup since the end of Marsh week 1 and never changed. Wouldn't change anything here.

Forward: This was definitely the hardest line to pick. This year I backed my gut with not starting Whitfield. I think it would've paid off in any year bar this one haha. I didn't have Macpherson until his monster Marsh scores but in hindsight, the writing was on the wall with this one. Not sure why I picked a 650k bloke who plays forward for Gold Coast. Was keen on Gresham prior to the Marsh series but unfortunately he did his PCL prior to half time and was on track for 25 touches The one that got away here was definitely Wingard. Had him all pre-season until that mare of a game vs the Dees. I also had Bailey Smith prior to Marsh series. He scored really well in the Marsh series despite not having the most attractive role. As soon as I heard Lipinski was out I thought that the risk was worth taking with him.

Overall, this team ranked around 3k in round 1 and I'm pretty annoyed that the season has been suspended as it looked like I could set this team up nicely in the coming rounds.