Building a fortress - Carrara Stadium

[Matchu]

The Gold Coast Suns are one of just five teams in the AFL that do not share stadium tenancy with another club. Therefore, home advantage could become a huge thing for the team as it has become for Geelong in recent years. Interestingly, the stadium's previous tenants provide this topic with a comparison over the years.

The Brisbane Bears ended their association with Carrara Stadium in 1992 with an overall record of 21 wins, 39 losses and 1 draw. As most of us already know, the Suns did not record a win at Carrara until the second last game of 2012 which gives them a win loss record of 8-22 and a winning percentage of 26%. However, if we look from that win onward, the Suns have won 8 of their 13 matches at Carrara which gives them a winning percentage of 61% since their first win at Carrara.

Who plays well at Carrara?
Adelaide wins: 7/7 - 100%
Essendon wins: 6/6 - 100%
Fremantle wins: 3/3 - 100%
Port Adelaide wins: 2/2 - 100%
Collingwood wins: 6/7 - 85%
West Coast wins: 4.5/6 - 75%
Hawthorn wins: 5/7 - 71%
Geelong wins: 5/7 - 71%

Who plays poorly at Carrara?
Greater Western Sydney wins: 0/2 - 0%
Richmond wins: 1/5 - 20%
Melbourne wins: 2/7 - 28%
Carlton wins: 3/8 - 37%

Who plays average at Carrara?
North Melbourne wins: 9/13 - 69%
Western Bulldogs wins: 5/8 - 62%
St Kilda wins: 5/8 - 62%
Brisbane wins: 3/5 - 62%
Sydney wins: 4/7 - 57%

I have grouped the average teams by a winning percentage lower than 70% and higher than 40%. Interesting to see both teams from South Australia are undefeated at Carrara. Fremantle and West Coast both have good records at the ground as well so travelling doesn't seem to be as much of a factor as some may think. So the question is, how does Carrara become a fortress for the Suns?

Several factors go into it. Firstly, the team has to be competitive and they need to have an imposing record at the stadium. Winning 6 of 11 home games in 2013 isn't quite going to cut it. Secondly, the crowd needs to play their part. A trend has developed with the Gold Coast audience and that involves booing an opposition player when he is taking a set shot. That player may not have done anything wrong but the crowd will boo regardless. As far as I am aware, no other crowd does this on every set shot.

You may not agree with it but it certainly makes it harder for the player taking the set shot. You may even think it makes the crowd look uneducated in terms of Australian football etiquette but, in some ways, this is an advantage. The crowd can find new and innovative ways to put opposition players off without being burdened by the presumed rules. As always, the crowd will be louder and more effective when more people show up to games. The Collingwood game this year was a good example of a loud crowd at Carrara.

Essentially, the stadium needs to be uncomfortable for opposition teams to play at. I believe the Suns are on their way to achieving this but they have a long way to go.

 

[holybishop]

A trend has developed with the Gold Coast audience and that involves booing an opposition player when he is taking a set shot. That player may not have done anything wrong but the crowd will boo regardless. As far as I am aware, no other crowd does this on every set shot.

Dont you watch West Coast games at Subi?

 

[TheJaegerBomb]

Dont you watch West Coast games at Subi?

Was literally just about to say that lol

Nice work as always Matchu. I think it will become a fortress for us next year.

 

[Matchu]

Dont you watch West Coast games at Subi?

No doubt West Coast have something good going over there but sharing the stadium with Fremantle diminishes the home advantage against the Dockers. Plus, a record of 3-9 at Subi this year put me off as well. A record of 49 from 51 games at Kardinia for Geelong sealed it for me. If fans at Metricon could even get close to the way things are out west or in Geelong, it'd be a horrific away game for opposition teams.

Was literally just about to say that lol

Nice work as always Matchu. I think it will become a fortress for us next year.

The AFL commentators tend to agree that Metricon will be a fortress at some point in time but don't really put a time frame on it. I guess we'll see. The Collingwood game this year was probably the best example of the fortress like atmosphere that resulted in the Suns causing a major upset. It'd be cool to see that happening more often than not at Carrara but we'll just have to wait and see. Next year is as good a guess as any.

 

[TheJaegerBomb]

No doubt West Coast have something good going over there but sharing the stadium with Fremantle diminishes the home advantage against the Dockers. Plus, a record of 3-9 at Subi this year put me off as well. A record of 49 from 51 games at Kardinia for Geelong sealed it for me. If fans at Metricon could even get close to the way things are out west or in Geelong, it'd be a horrific away game for opposition teams.

He was talking about the booing. West Coast fans boo non stop.

 

[Matchu]

He was talking about the booing. West Coast fans boo non stop.

My mistake. That would be so off putting for the players. No wonder they say it's the hardest away trip in footy.

 

[holybishop]

Subi is still a huge fortress for both teams, but like any fortress it can only be held down by a competent army. WC had a shocker and lost more than they won, but during their glory days in the early/mid 00's they were unbeatable there. Same with Freo during that time and this year too. It also helps that Subi is a very peculiar ground, the longest field in the game yet one of the narrowest, so both teams can develop a gameplan revolving around the ground. Metricon's dimensions is quite similar to the MCG so the Suns wont be able to rely on that. What they do have though is the weather conditions. Early and late in the year it can get quite hot up there, and travelling teams wont be used to playing in heat.

The crowd always helps, you can't underestimate how a vocal crowd can help lift a home team and get under the skin of an opposition. Crowds regularly over 20k will provide a bigger noise at games at Metricon, but at the same time you want sell outs or close to. One of the reasons why playing Melbourne at the MCG is anything but a fortness is that they get 13k to a 100k stadium. It just feels and sounds empty. GC will need to lift regular attendance, especially if/when the stadium gets an upgrade for the Comm games. You can get away with 15k in a 25k venue, but in a 40k venue it will sound pretty pathetic.

 

[Matchu]

Thought it would be interesting to also see which players do well at Carrara considering they play a huge part in building the fortress. A few statistics:

Gary Ablett Jr
Games played: 29 (16 games behind the record)
Goals kicked: 40 (fourth all time)
Disposal average: 31.90 per game
Most disposals in one game: 49 (second all time, also holds 5 of the top 10 in that category)

Harley Bennell
Games played: 24
Goals kicked: 27
Disposal average: 21.58 per game
Most disposals in one game: 37

Dion Prestia
Games played: 24
Goals kicked: 6
Disposal average: 22.04 per game
Most disposals in one game: 42 (fifth all time)

Jarrod Harbrow
Games played: 26
Goals kicked: 11
Disposal average: 21.35 per game
Most disposals in one game: 32

Jaeger O'Meara
Games played: 11
Goals kicked: 8
Disposal average: 21.64 per game
Most disposals in one game: 32

Having five players that average over 20 disposals a game when they are surrounded by Ablett really shows the strength of the midfield and this will be a nightmare for the opposition in the future. Not many of the other players in the forward or back line have statistics that are as impressive but that should come over time. The statistics clearly indicate that Gary is not only the best midfielder at the Suns but is in fact the best forward they have as well. My prediction is that Gary will break almost all the records at Carrara but will probably be caught in the future by guys like Jaeger or Harley.

 

[cos789]

He was talking about the booing. West Coast fans boo non stop.

Mostly their own team.

 

[popin]

Fortress well its a awesome stadium and probably will be a fortress with a midfield with all number one and 2 draft picks wicth no ever team in history has had in the afl. afl might have gave youse and gws way to much i think.

 

[popin]

You have a sick midfield and very exciting to watch

 

[Matchu]

Fortress well its a awesome stadium and probably will be a fortress with a midfield with all number one and 2 draft picks wicth no ever team in history has had in the afl. afl might have gave youse and gws way to much i think.

Ignoring your poor grammar and spelling, no team in VFL/AFL history has been given similar concessions? The Brisbane Bears were given the first seven picks in the 1986 VFL draft when they were admitted into the competition. They were also granted exclusive access to Queensland players which allowed them to recruit the likes of Michael Voss, Marcus Ashcroft and Jason Akermanis. Not to mention cap concessions.

The Suns were given the first three picks in the 2010 AFL draft along with another five picks between picks 5-13. Surely the Bears' package of picks 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 is better than what the Suns were offered which was 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13. You might bring up Jaeger O'Meara or Jack Martin but those two were available to any club that was willing to trade with GWS. The Gold Coast just so happened to make the best offer for both of them. Poor effort from other clubs, really.

The Bears cap concessions and exclusive access to Queenslanders lasted through their entire existence (ten years) and continued for the Lions while the Suns exclusive access to Queenslanders lasted three years and the cap concessions will only last five seasons. I don't know about you, but it seems pretty comprehensive to me that the Bears were given better concessions than the Suns. Then you have Fremantle who were given the first 11 selections in the 1994 draft. Surely you can see that the Suns have actually set themselves up well rather than just being given too many concessions?

For the record, you say - "with all number one and 2 draft picks wicth no ever team in history has had in the afl". The Gold Coast only have two players that have gone number one and two in the AFL draft and those players are David Swallow and Harley Bennell. Both came from the same draft class.

 

[TheJaegerBomb]

Ignoring your poor grammar and spelling, no team in VFL/AFL history has been given similar concessions? The Brisbane Bears were given the first seven picks in the 1986 VFL draft when they were admitted into the competition. They were also granted exclusive access to Queensland players which allowed them to recruit the likes of Michael Voss, Marcus Ashcroft and Jason Akermanis. Not to mention cap concessions.

The Suns were given the first three picks in the 2010 AFL draft along with another five picks between picks 5-13. Surely the Bears' package of picks 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 is better than what the Suns were offered which was 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13. You might bring up Jaeger O'Meara or Jack Martin but those two were available to any club that was willing to trade with GWS. The Gold Coast just so happened to make the best offer for both of them. Poor effort from other clubs, really.

The Bears cap concessions and exclusive access to Queenslanders lasted through their entire existence (ten years) and continued for the Lions while the Suns exclusive access to Queenslanders lasted three years and the cap concessions will only last five seasons. I don't know about you, but it seems pretty comprehensive to me that the Bears were given better concessions than the Suns. Then you have Fremantle who were given the first 11 selections in the 1994 draft. Surely you can see that the Suns have actually set themselves up well rather than just being given too many concessions?

For the record, you say - "with all number one and 2 draft picks wicth no ever team in history has had in the afl". The Gold Coast only have two players that have gone number one and two in the AFL draft and those players are David Swallow and Harley Bennell. Both came from the same draft class.

Although that poster is a complete idiot. You just destroyed him.

 

[Matchu]

Although that poster is a complete idiot. You just destroyed him.

Get used to it. Ignorance toward the Suns will be at an all time high over the next few years.

 

[gosuns!]

Especially considering that the suns aren't your first team man! That post should be required reading for all afl fans before they comment on us for the next 3 years! Also shows just what an awesome job our coaching and recruiting teams have done!

 

[Moo]

Get used to it. Ignorance toward the Suns will be at an all time high over the next few years.

Disagree - as you become more relevant as an on field force, opposition supporters will pay you more heed.

You would have to be knocking on the door of the 8 inside the next 2 seasons, with top 4 1-2 seasons after that.

Exciting times ahead.

 

[Matchu]

Disagree - as you become more relevant as an on field force, opposition supporters will pay you more heed.

You would have to be knocking on the door of the 8 inside the next 2 seasons, with top 4 1-2 seasons after that.

Exciting times ahead.

Doubt it. This may be the case for Fremantle because they spent their time at the bottom end of the ladder and have built a strong team over the last ten years or so. Words like gifted will be used to describe the Gold Coast's (and GWS's for that matter) success over the next decade. Don't believe me? Have a look at this thread on the main board - Expansion: The domination begins

 

[Matchu]

Thought it would be interesting to analyse the home matches next season to see which teams are travelling to Carrara next year and how they might perform at the ground. Winning percentage at Carrara is indicated.

Round 1: Tigers - 20%
Round 3: Lions - 62%
Round 4: Hawks - 71%
Round 6: Giants - 0%
Round 10: Bulldogs - 62%
Round 12: Swans - 57%
Round 14: Cats - 71%
Round 16: Magpies - 85%
Round 19: Saints - 62%
Round 21: Power - 100%
Round 23: Eagles - 75%

Now obviously other factors come into play like projected crowd and current ladder positions. If we look at this factors you get a better idea of what may happen next year.

Round 1: Tigers - Mid-High crowd expected. 5th in 2013.
Round 3: Lions - Mid crowd expected. 12th in 2013.
Round 4: Hawks - High crowd expected. 1st in 2013.
Round 6: Giants - Low-Mid crowd expected. 18th in 2013
Round 10: Bulldogs - Mid crowd expected. 15th in 2013.
Round 12: Swans - Low-Mid crowd expected. 4th in 2013.
Round 14: Cats - Mid-High crowd expected. 2nd in 2013.
Round 16: Magpies - High crowd expected. 6th in 2013.
Round 19: Saints - Low-Mid crowd expected. 16th in 2013.
Round 21: Power - Low crowd expected. 7th in 2013.
Round 23: Eagles - Low crowd expected. 13th in 2013.

Anyone who has been to Carrara knows that a big crowd makes for a really great atmosphere and brings out the voice in the locals. Games against Richmond, Hawthorn, Geelong and Collingwood should all make for an intimidating atmosphere for the players. You'll also noticed that six of the top eight teams from 2013 will be heading to Carrara next season. Has this been done on purpose to give the Suns a better chance at winning? Probably.

 

[SUNS]

Thought it would be interesting to analyse the home matches next season to see which teams are travelling to Carrara next year and how they might perform at the ground. Winning percentage at Carrara is indicated.

Round 1: Tigers - 20%
Round 3: Lions - 62%
Round 4: Hawks - 71%
Round 6: Giants - 0%
Round 10: Bulldogs - 62%
Round 12: Swans - 57%
Round 14: Cats - 71%
Round 16: Magpies - 85%
Round 19: Saints - 62%
Round 21: Power - 100%
Round 23: Eagles - 75%

Now obviously other factors come into play like projected crowd and current ladder positions. If we look at this factors you get a better idea of what may happen next year.

Round 1: Tigers - Mid-High crowd expected. 5th in 2013.
Round 3: Lions - Mid crowd expected. 12th in 2013.
Round 4: Hawks - High crowd expected. 1st in 2013.
Round 6: Giants - Low-Mid crowd expected. 18th in 2013
Round 10: Bulldogs - Mid crowd expected. 15th in 2013.
Round 12: Swans - Low-Mid crowd expected. 4th in 2013.
Round 14: Cats - Mid-High crowd expected. 2nd in 2013.
Round 16: Magpies - High crowd expected. 6th in 2013.
Round 19: Saints - Low-Mid crowd expected. 16th in 2013.
Round 21: Power - Low crowd expected. 7th in 2013.
Round 23: Eagles - Low crowd expected. 13th in 2013.

Anyone who has been to Carrara knows that a big crowd makes for a really great atmosphere and brings out the voice in the locals. Games against Richmond, Hawthorn, Geelong and Collingwood should all make for an intimidating atmosphere for the players. You'll also noticed that six of the top eight teams from 2013 will be heading to Carrara next season. Has this been done on purpose to give the Suns a better chance at winning? Probably.

You could possibly hope that with the final three games these teams will be below or around us on the ladder as the SUNS make a push for the top 8. Despite the strength of oppositions crowd, could that be pushing the numbers up towards 16-19k?

By then we could possibly be entrenched in the top 8, and we all know how the queensland sporting fan loves a winner!

 

[Matchu]

You could possibly hope that with the final three games these teams will be below or around us on the ladder as the SUNS make a push for the top 8. Despite the strength of oppositions crowd, could that be pushing the numbers up towards 16-19k?

By then we could possibly be entrenched in the top 8, and we all know how the queensland sporting fan loves a winner!

Heavily dependent on whether the Suns actually are in the 8, I would have thought. The Saints game back in 2011 pulled just under 17.5k so it's possible but I know there isn't a large West Coast or Port Adelaide fan base on the Gold Coast.

 

[Matchu]

So it's pretty obviously that the humid/greasy conditions are quite common at Carrara Stadium (especially at night) and that could become a real benefit for the Suns in the future. We saw last night how many times Essendon players were dropping the ball when put in a fairly easy marking situation. You'd hope training in those conditions day in and day out would result in better ball handling skills for the Gold Coast players and I think they were the better of the two teams last night. Add to that a loud crowd and a field with bigger dimensions than most in the AFL and you could have a really difficult ground to play footy at for the away team.

So who is going to crack the fortress first in 2014? My guess would be Hawthorn.

 

[SUNS]

Richmond

 

[Matchu]

Not confident for round 1 SUNS?

 

[SUNS]

50/50 at very best. Likely 30/70 though. Not without a chance but I wont be tipping us

 

[Matchu]

Richmond have a 20% winning record at Carrara...