Preview AFL Round 19 - North Melbourne v Geelong, Etihad Stadium, 7:40PM Saturday 2 August

[DV2000]

We've come through the last 4 weeks of playing bottom sides with 4 wins, but not without a fight. The days of smashing teams is over, but the Catters achieved what it had to. I believe that if we're to stay in the top 4 we need to win at least two of the three games against Hawthorn, Freo, & NM (Given that 'on paper' we should be able to beat Carlton & Brisbane). So this game looms as probably the most pivotal for the season so far. A loss here could set us up to finish 5th (some would argue where we deserve), so the days of the Cats saying, "Our best footy is in front of us," are over. They need to produce it now.

I really think this is a 50/50 game for us because NM believe they can beat us now. The question remains which NM will turn up. I'm sure they'll be hurting after losing to Carlton, but the bye will also blunt that a bit. They have to wait an extra week to redeem themselves, and that may play into our favour compared to if the game was this weekend coming. This next five weeks is where we'll find out where our team is really at. This is the business end of the season, the time for talk is over. The time to deliver results is here.

Couldn't have put it any better

 

[DV2000]

Got a gut feeling we're going to come out on Saturday night and make a statement and lead all night and win by about 8-10 goals.

Hopefully your gut is a good punter

 

[Goggin Our Best]

Just on the ruck set- up ( havent read the thread - so someone might have already mentioned it) but i would keep Simpson in this week - and leave Blicavs out

Simpson up until the game against GWS - i thought he has had a terrible year - but last week he looked like he was finally fully fit - he moved really well ( like last year) - and he actually did a few things other than getting tap outs - eg -kicked a couple of goals

Plus Goldstein has worried Geelong in the past with his height advantage - its interesting - Goldstein is one of those numerous players in the AFL - who plays his career best game against Geelong - outside of the Geelong game - if you read the North board - its like Goldys a hack - Goldys got concrete hands- Goldy no more

So assuming Goldstein is going to look like a superstar - we need Simpson in to combat him

 

[Pivo]

Just on the ruck set- up ( havent read the thread - so someone might have already mentioned it) but i would keep Simpson in this week - and leave Blicavs out

Simpson up until the game against GWS - i thought he has had a terrible year - but last week he looked like he was finally fully fit - he moved really well ( like last year) - and he actually did a few things other than getting tap outs - eg -kicked a couple of goals

Plus Goldstein has worried Geelong in the past with his height advantage - its interesting - Goldstein is one of those numerous players in the AFL - who plays his career best game against Geelong - outside of the Geelong game - if you read the North board - its like Goldys a hack - Goldys got concrete hands- Goldy no more

So assuming Goldstein is going to look like a superstar - we need Simpson in to combat him

There was an article in The Age today stating that Scott considers Blicavs to be 1 of the "best 22".

Based on that, and the fact he has had a decent break, it is a given he'll be in for Saturday.

Whether we also play McIntosh and Simpson isn't as clear but I think you can pencil Blicavs as an 'IN'.

 

[Partridge]

There was an article in The Age today stating that Scott considers Blicavs to be 1 of the "best 22".

Based on that, and the fact he has had a decent break, it is a given he'll be in for Saturday.

Whether we also play McIntosh and Simpson isn't as clear but I think you can pencil Blicavs as an 'IN'.

Scott's "best 22" is also outside the realm of normal mathematics at times. It hasn't always been the best thing for a player to hear.

 

[Pivo]

Scott's "best 22" is also outside the realm of normal mathematics at times. It hasn't always been the best thing for a player to hear.

Happy to take your money if you don't think Blicavs will be in this week.

But I know what you mean, 26 is the new 22.

 

[vinum coupe]

Happy to take your money if you don't think Blicavs will be in this week.

But I know what you mean, 26 is the new 22.

Yeah I agree.
I heard a bit of that presser.
Pretty much said that no matter what ruck combo they use, Blicavs fits the team structure and that he is very important.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Got a gut feeling we're going to come out on Saturday night and make a statement and lead all night and win by about 8-10 goals.

Not sure if I'd go that far, but I'm sort of along similar lines, that the Cats have had Round 19 circled in the calendar for some time as the point where the real stuff starts and I think that we're going to see the most impressive four quarter display from our team that we've seen in some time (that probably isn't saying much I suppose). And if North can match that, good for them. Our September best 22 is ready to go and several players should be feeling serious pressure now to hold their places in the senior team. There's no excuse for complacency. Not only can we put our best team on the park now and hopefully until the end of the season, we've got players like Bews, Walker, Thurlow, McCarthy, Schroder, Brown, Smedts, Hunt, Lang, Jansen and Hartman, along with one unlucky ruckman, who will be available in the VFL this week. And most of them are producing in the seconds (several are dominating, week-in/week-out).

The only thing that's missing is consistent performances in the AFL team, but I'm optimistic that's coming, starting on Saturday night. A lot of people are going to have to do a lot of backtracking if we can win our next two games. And I think we should win them.

 

[vinum coupe]

The only thing that's missing is consistent performances in the AFL team, but I'm optimistic that's coming, starting on Saturday night. A lot of people are going to have to do a lot of backtracking if we can win our next two games. And I think we should win them.

Oh! I thought it was 'realism'.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Happy to take your money if you don't think Blicavs will be in this week.

But I know what you mean, 26 is the new 22.

Blicavs will obviously be in this week, because he was 'managed' or 'rested' against GWS. But I wouldn't say that guarantees him a spot in the 22 in the first week of finals. I think it could quite possibly be a horses-for-courses thing at this stage. The match-up on Sandilands next week could make or break the finals aspirations of Simpson, McIntosh, or both (if the match committee doesn't go with Simpson and McIntosh, or all three, against Sandilands, the writing will be on the wall that it's one of them and Blicavs).

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Oh! I thought it was 'realism'.

I must be missing something...

 

[cynical]

Got a gut feeling we're going to come out on Saturday night and make a statement and lead all night and win by about 8-10 goals.

some real dreamers on this board

if we do win, it'll be the usual couple of goals

 

[Teriyakicat]

Just on the ruck set- up ( havent read the thread - so someone might have already mentioned it) but i would keep Simpson in this week - and leave Blicavs out

Simpson up until the game against GWS - i thought he has had a terrible year - but last week he looked like he was finally fully fit - he moved really well ( like last year) - and he actually did a few things other than getting tap outs - eg -kicked a couple of goals

Plus Goldstein has worried Geelong in the past with his height advantage - its interesting - Goldstein is one of those numerous players in the AFL - who plays his career best game against Geelong - outside of the Geelong game - if you read the North board - its like Goldys a hack - Goldys got concrete hands- Goldy no more

So assuming Goldstein is going to look like a superstar - we need Simpson in to combat him

Good plan, GOB. I agree with you about Goldstein. Hale also used to find a way to play well against us, as well- I remember him bagging 5 goals against us one year and I was always worried about him repeating that effort afterward
So many players spud it up from week to week but seem to get their A game happening against us. It may be that our open style of game allows them more freedom.
Anyway, I'm happy to have either of Simpson OR Hamish against the Roos- don't want both playing as we need speed elsewhere.
Edit- oops- forgot to mention- I don't want Blicavs out though. Maybe I only like HALF of your plan?

 

[Art Vandelay_]

I reckon Bobby_ should make up 2 dozen avatars like that, with the head of a different Hawks player on each one, then hand them out to any Cats poster who wants to have one. Then, when we play the Hawks and their supporters all flock over to read the Cats' board, all they'll see is a sea of Hawks players looking ridiculous

Shotgun Hodge! (He likes KFC apparently )

As for the game geelong by 5 goals!

 

[Shai]

Shotgun Hodge! (He likes KFC apparently )

As for the game geelong by 5 goals!

Funny thing that, Hodge & Mitchell are the 2 that I have images of.. know any goss about Mitchell..?

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Funny thing that, Hodge & Mitchell are the 2 that I have images of.. know any goss about Mitchell..?

I know he's a midget, he plays for the P&W's and Squishykitty hates with a passion! and understandably too

 

[Teriyakicat]

Funny thing that, Hodge & Mitchell are the 2 that I have images of.. know any goss about Mitchell..?

Only that he appears to fancy himself. Do you want to put an order in for a Mitchell avatar, Shai?

 

[Teriyakicat]

I know he's a midget, he plays for the P&W's and Squishykitty hates with a passion! and understandably too

See if you can get a couple of coathangers hanging off his arms instead of hands
Oh- and maybe merge his top half with the bum of a duck

 

[fpm84]

I reckon I know how this is going to play out.

Q1 - Geelong starts on fire, kicks 4 of the first 5 goals and leads by 20-25 points at quarter time.
Q2 - stalemate, we lead by a similar margin at half time.
Q3 - North come out firing and we can't stop their run. Boomer Harvey kicks 3 for the quarter and we go in at 3/4 time with a single figure lead or behind.
Q4 - North miss a few shots at goal, we kick a couple of 'easy' goals (including from a soft free kick to Hawkins that has North fans furious) and we win by less than 2 goals.

We are written off by the media for another week and opposition supporters say the umpiring/North's poor goal kicking cost them the game.

Watch it happen.

 

[Partridge]

I reckon I know how this is going to play out.

Q1 - Geelong starts on fire, kicks 4 of the first 5 goals and leads by 20-25 points at quarter time.
Q2 - stalemate, we lead by a similar margin at half time.
Q3 - North come out firing and we can't stop their run. Boomer Harvey kicks 3 for the quarter and we go in at 3/4 time with a single figure lead or behind.
Q4 - North miss a few shots at goal, we kick a couple of 'easy' goals (including from a soft free kick to Hawkins that has North fans furious) and we win by less than 2 goals.

We are written off by the media for another week and opposition supporters say the umpiring/North's poor goal kicking cost them the game.

Watch it happen.

As long as it means Geelong wins and we get 4 more premiership points, I'm perfectly happy with that scenario. If there was ever a fortnight where the how we win doesn't matter as long as we do win, the next two games are it.

 

[fpm84]

As long as it means Geelong wins and we get 4 more premiership points, I'm perfectly happy with that scenario. If there was ever a fortnight where the how we win doesn't matter as long as we do win, the next two games are it.

Completely agree. I just think those expecting we'll play four quarters of scintillating football are wrong - as are those predicting we'll get smashed over the next two weeks.

 

[cat in sydney]

I reckon I know how this is going to play out.

Q1 - Geelong starts on fire, kicks 4 of the first 5 goals and leads by 20-25 points at quarter time.
Q2 - stalemate, we lead by a similar margin at half time.
Q3 - North come out firing and we can't stop their run. Boomer Harvey kicks 3 for the quarter and we go in at 3/4 time with a single figure lead or behind.
Q4 - North miss a few shots at goal, we kick a couple of 'easy' goals (including from a soft free kick to Hawkins that has North fans furious) and we win by less than 2 goals.

We are written off by the media for another week and opposition supporters say the umpiring/North's poor goal kicking cost them the game.

Watch it happen.

Yep, pretty sure it'll happen something like that. We may start really slowly, then fight all the way to the end and win by a goal or two... but either way, pretty sure we'll get up with it being Pops 250th. We rarely lose games with that level of significance for such a core player.

 

[The rabbi]

Really if we are on our game then it won't matter which Norf shows up they will be defeated.

That all depends on the Geelong that shows up.
You know, like the Geelong that showed up against the Swans and the Gold Diggers.

 

[The rabbi]

Completely agree. I just think those expecting we'll play four quarters of scintillating football are wrong - as are those predicting we'll get smashed over the next two weeks.

Not really a big statement. When was the last time Geelong played 4 quarters of scintillating football?

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

some real dreamers on this board

if we do win, it'll be the usual couple of goals

Any specific reasons?

Ins: advantage to Geelong here. Two automatic best 22 players return, in Christensen and Blicavs. North will have Brown (probably replacing Black) and then one or more players who had previously been playing VFL (Anthony, Mullett, McKenzie etc.)

Venue: North loves Etihad and has consistently given the Cats problems there since 2012. Having said that, the Roos are a pretty moderate 5-3 at Etihad in 2014 and put in a shocker there in their last run against Carlton. Geelong has only played at Etihad twice in 2014, winning both times.

Form: North continues to yo-yo (though they are due to be 'up' this week). Geelong has won four straight and six of the last seven.

On the line: if Geelong loses this game, the chances of top two are on a knife's edge (would have to win the remaining four games, including against Fremantle and Hawthorn): lose this game and the Cats could easily be out of the top four by the end of the round (Sydney, Fremantle and Hawthorn are all expected to win and Port is probably a 50/50 prospect to beat Collingwood); win and the Cats probably just need to win one of the Fremantle/Hawthorn games and take care of business against Carlton and Brisbane and they should cruise to an MCG Qualifying Final...a critical game. There is a very remote chance that a loss could drop North out of the top eight, but the Roos only have one team in the last four games that might have something to play for (Adelaide in Hobart). The loss to Carlton made them rank outsiders for a top four finish and, regardless of the result here, North looks set to be playing an Elimination Final at the MCG. Much more at stake for Geelong.

Availability: Geelong is as close to full-strength as possible, heading into the last month of the H&A season. Of players who have been in the seniors this year, only George Burbury and Taylor Hunt are potentially missing this week (Hunt may play VFL) and neither of those two would be expected to factor in the AFL team's September campaign. North is missing vital cogs in Wells and Grima, along with senior options like Tippett, Tarrant, Nahas and McMillan

Rucks/midfield: Goldstein and Daw/Brown v McIntosh/Simpson and Blicavs. North actually had the better of the hitouts and clearances last time the teams met, though with Lonergan's early substitution, Blicavs played almost exclusively in the back half and McIntosh was playing primarily as a forward alongside Hawkins at this stage of the season. Goldstein is an All-Australian calibre ruckman and deserves respect, but I think either McIntosh or Simpson can at least make it a decent battle between the number ones and Blicavs continues to improve as a number two, where I think he has a clear edge on Daw (admittedly, I haven't seen a lot of Brown as a ruckman). When Blicavs is up against Goldstein, it is critical for him to try to work Goldstein over and see if we can get him fatigued for the last quarter, to give our boys a big advantage at the end of the game.

Christensen, Caddy and Johnson will all be inclusions to the midfield from that previous game, while North will be making changes of the Anthony in, Bastinac/Adams out variety. With Selwood, Johnson and Motlop all hitting pretty much peak form, the consistent Stokes in his second game back, Guthrie (hopefully) dying for a shot at Harvey, Christensen, Caddy and Duncan providing toughness and class, Horlin-Smith hopefully continuing a consistent season and the option of putting Bartel and Kelly in to the middle like last time (both absolutely torched North in that game), I think we should go in confident that our midfield can do the job. It's as strong as the middle of the ground has looked for us for some time, in terms of both available personnel and current form. Greenwood will probably go to Selwood or Johnson, but even if he's effective in slowing one of them down, I think we have enough quality midfielders at our disposal to overcome that, where we may not have earlier in the season. Plus, there's always the option to put Selwood/Johnson forward and let Bartel loose in the middle again. The Guthrie/Harvey match-up will be crucial and I think Guthrie is just the man for the job: he's quick, skilled, tough and he's certainly got no qualms with making Harvey hurt with a tackle or two. And, if Guthrie is effective on Harvey and Harvey spits the dummy, Guthrie is a master of hurting his opponent the other way. I'm very excited about that match-up.

In defence, we need to focus on locking down on Thomas and Petrie. This was done reasonably effectively last time, but they still managed six goals between them and Thomas, in particular always seems to kick his 3+ against us. Bews may come in as a designated Thomas stopper, but whoever does needs to focus on not getting sucked in by him. If he's going to kick goals, make him earn them. Don't gift them to him with dumb free kicks...he thrives on drawing those and he is a clinical finisher these days. Lonergan to Petrie, Taylor to Black/Daw and Rivers to Brown would be my suggested match-ups. Keep those talls to under five goals between them and we'll go a long way to winning the game.

Up forward, our most important players will be Kersten and Murdoch. Thompson will go to Hawkins again and Hawkins will be productive, provided North isn't able to double and triple team him. That's where Kersten is critical. The Roos will either match him up with someone like Firrito (and Kersten should absolutely be able to exploit that), or they'll possibly put Hansen on him. If Hansen goes to him, Kersten needs to - as a minimum - make him accountable and not let him peel off to take marks in front of Hawkins. We all know Kersten can play and he doesn't have to be a world-beater, just a few grabs and a goal or two would be nice to let them know that if they only focus on locking down on Hawkins, we have others that can make them pay. Murdoch's last few weeks have been frustrating, as he's squandered 4-5 golden goal opportunities, the kind that he has to be nailing. It's a big week for him to hurt an opponent on the scoreboard, as well as providing the usual pressure in the forward line.

Part of that pressure will be on Dal Santo and it would be interesting to see if Chris Scott might give Murdoch a defensive forward job on NDS, though I'd feel more comfortable with Bartel taking that gig. Holding NDS to less than 20 disposals and getting similar (if not better) numbers himself, would be a huge win for us.