Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[Knightmare]

Brisbane will likely finish bottom 5 so at least with Keays they'll probably be taking him with a pick around his worth, but getting Heeney, Mills and Dunkley possibly at 18, 18 and 36 is absolutely rediculous and if they don't change the system then it's unbelievably unfair.

Not going to lie. Does make the blood boil.

Sydney have had some incredibly fortunate circumstances go their way with COLA and the academy system. To their credit they're capitalising on the competitive advantage they have been gifted but for competitive balance it does take the unpredictability out of the game.

 

[SizeMatters]

You win some you lose some.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

He's not O'Meara athletic to be that same transcendent talent but he'll be the best Queenslander since Dayne Beams. Not out of the question Keays develops into a better player than Beams.



Sydney could win the premiership again next year and getting these guys for an end of first round and end of second round pick will be absolutely incredible.

Dunkley is a top 10 pick at this stage also next year so they'll be draft winners again next year due less to superior ability to identify talent as it will be due to circumstance.

Dayne Beams would be a classic reason why we need to pay attention to Queensland.
While players like Sidebottom went early after dominating in the TAC, and others like Blease went early, Beams showed that he should have been taken much much earlier.

 

[Knightmare]

Dayne Beams would be a classic reason why we need to pay attention to Queensland.
While players like Sidebottom went early after dominating in the TAC, and others like Blease went early, Beams showed that he should have been taken much much earlier.

Beams' production in the u18s was obvious. Clubs just continue from a recruiting standpoint to underestimate the value of the QLD and NSW boys and those who scout those states well have as Collingwood did with Beams collect their share of bargains.

 

[iBeng]

Beams' production in the u18s was obvious. Clubs just continue from a recruiting standpoint to underestimate the value of the QLD and NSW boys and those who scout those states well have as Collingwood did with Beams collect their share of bargains.

Is this perhaps why its Eddie who started the first assault on the future of academies? Is he concerned about clubs like the Lions bringing other potential kids who might not have made it into the draft through to the AFL?

 

[Knightmare]

Is this perhaps why its Eddie who started the first assault on the future of academies? Is he concerned about clubs like the Lions bringing other potential kids who might not have made it into the draft through to the AFL?

I haven't been following the commentary to even hear what Eddie has been saying re. the academy system and generally don't follow media commentary.

My concern with the academy system as with COLA is that it's an advantage not afforded to all.

Even without the academy system the talent in QLD and NSW is pretty good. I want to draft guys from those states. And with the academy system that chance is limited to those from the other states. In QLD there have been some incredible talls. In NSW there have been some incredible ball users. These states clubs haven't properly bothered to scout in the most part and it will be a shame to be unable to have that same ability to pick the best from those states when they otherwise may be had cheaper in the draft than they perhaps should.

The population in NSW and QLD is huge. That's over 10 million people and roughly half our population as a country. Even if the population from both part share little interest in the AFL saying four of the 18 clubs have first dibs on all the guys developing in these states and the opportunity to develop them from the age of 12. It's a massive competitive advantage.

I'd feel pretty good if Collingwood was one of the teams with the monopoly of the junior talent from QLD or NSW. And I'm sure Hawthorn and many of the well resources clubs in Victoria or other states would say the same.

 

[Zach Package]

You win some you lose some.

so much this.

For all that I don't like about the academies, the how the bidding system is structured is definitely not part of it

 

[Long live PAFC]

Sorry if you have already addressed this but I am surprised with Kietel and Blakely going so low. I had both locked in for somewhere in the 10-20 region. Have others gone ahead or have they dropped off?

What about some of the mature agers floating around? Do you see a few being picked up like last year?

 

[Knightmare]

Sorry if you have already addressed this but I am surprised with Kietel and Blakely going so low. I had both locked in for somewhere in the 10-20 region. Have others gone ahead or have they dropped off?

What about some of the mature agers floating around? Do you see a few being picked up like last year?

Either could be considered in that range but probably go some time later.

Keitel isn't an elite key position player - forward or back and is more a mid draft type at this point given his mild production.

Connor Blakely is a good one but probably goes more somewhere around 20.

 

[Raymann]

I haven't been following the commentary to even hear what Eddie has been saying re. the academy system and generally don't follow media commentary.

My concern with the academy system as with COLA is that it's an advantage not afforded to all.

Even without the academy system the talent in QLD and NSW is pretty good. I want to draft guys from those states. And with the academy system that chance is limited to those from the other states. In QLD there have been some incredible talls. In NSW there have been some incredible ball users. These states clubs haven't properly bothered to scout in the most part and it will be a shame to be unable to have that same ability to pick the best from those states when they otherwise may be had cheaper in the draft than they perhaps should.

The population in NSW and QLD is huge. That's over 10 million people and roughly half our population as a country. Even if the population from both part share little interest in the AFL saying four of the 18 clubs have first dibs on all the guys developing in these states and the opportunity to develop them from the age of 12. It's a massive competitive advantage.

I'd feel pretty good if Collingwood was one of the teams with the monopoly of the junior talent from QLD or NSW. And I'm sure Hawthorn and many of the well resources clubs in Victoria or other states would say the same.

A Victorian centric view!
I have a few questions
How many clubs have lost Qld or NSW players due to homesickness?
What percentage of the 10mil actually play AFL?
How does that compare to vic as a percentage?

Knights, you are a smart footy person, these academies are a requirement to attract the best talent in Qld &NSW. No such problem in Victoria.

 

[Chris25]

The Academy thread is here.

 

[pulpdriver]

Appreciate all the work you put in every year, Knightmare. Just a few questions:

Aside from McCartin and Wright which prospect do you see as most likely to be a dominant number one forward?

If you were looking for a key forward; Durdin or Goddard?

Do you think Lever is capable of playing forward or would it not really utilize his strengths?

 

[Demon 16]

Hi Knightmare,

I understand he's not available until next year, but how has Jake Lovett been tracking recently - and do you have a feel if he's likely to be a highly valued pick yet?

 

[Rancid Trogs]

Hey KM,

Looking at some footage of Weller's U/18 champs, it seemed he was reasonable overhead. Do you think he could slot onto a half forward flank until his body develops enough to play full time on ball?

This would suit the bombers at pick 19 - relieve Chappy or Winders over the next couple of years before becoming a part of our midfield (and adding much needed speed, class and decision making).

 

[mattyc75]

hi KM great work.how high could you see brendon abbott going in the draft?

 

[eth-dog]

Hi Knightmare,

I understand he's not available until next year, but how has Jake Lovett been tracking recently - and do you have a feel if he's likely to be a highly valued pick yet?

Related to Andrew?

 

[Knightmare]

A Victorian centric view!
I have a few questions
How many clubs have lost Qld or NSW players due to homesickness?
What percentage of the 10mil actually play AFL?
How does that compare to vic as a percentage?

Knights, you are a smart footy person, these academies are a requirement to attract the best talent in Qld &NSW. No such problem in Victoria.

I can't think of a single player from QLD or NSW player to go back to their home state due to homesickness. I'm sure you'll have some examples but of the current generation of footballers I can't imagine there would be all that many.

I don't disagree of the roughly 11mil from QLD/NSW/ACT it's a small, small population who play AFL. But hey. It's still just about half the country's population! Even if it's only 1/15th of the AFL relevant population from a recruiting standpoint today it's still a recruiting ground I would want equal access to the talent pool from.
None of the Collingwood boys from QLD or NSW have gone home with D.Beams, Keeffe, J.Thomas, Oxley, J.White and B.Hudson Queenslanders and Witts, Hartley, T.Young and S.Reed past NSW boys.

Why not expand the academy system to allow all clubs the ability to develop junior talent in QLD and NSW/ACT? It levels the playing field and only increases the potential for young talent to be identified at a young age and developed from the two states. Then leave it up to the kids to sign with whoever they want to sign with and have developed them.

The current system while it currently does a good job at increasing the talent pool and improve the development of the QLD and NSW prospects which I agree is a desirable situation for competitive balance and from an equal opportunity standpoint it gives the QLD and NSW clubs a decisive competitive advantage. If one club can do something from a list management standpoint all clubs should be able to do it. So changes in my view without question need to be made to the current system. Not at the expense of developing NSW and QLD talent but a solution needs to be put into place where all clubs can do it, and this is in my view the better of the possible solutions.

Appreciate all the work you put in every year, Knightmare. Just a few questions:

Aside from McCartin and Wright which prospect do you see as most likely to be a dominant number one forward?

If you were looking for a key forward; Durdin or Goddard?

Do you think Lever is capable of playing forward or would it not really utilize his strengths?

Durdin and Goddard for me are both number two options if played forward.

Darcy Moore has slightly better scope to become that number one forward. Hammelmann is another who while less well rounded than the others in this discussion has more scope to become a go to key forward so in Brisbane's situation other than Wright and McCartin early should be Brisbane's solution.
Harris Andrews is another well worth a shot for Brisbane as another key forward who also has something.

Lever I haven't seen play key forward but I'd favour others first as key forwards until I see him go forward and dominate.

Hi Knightmare,

I understand he's not available until next year, but how has Jake Lovett been tracking recently - and do you have a feel if he's likely to be a highly valued pick yet?

Lovett is playing in the TAC. Eligible next year. Going ok but not dominating. Has a strong body and plays mostly through the midfield.

Will want to elevate his game next year if he wants to get drafted but he's someone who is very reasonably in the draft mix next year.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM,

Looking at some footage of Weller's U/18 champs, it seemed he was reasonable overhead. Do you think he could slot onto a half forward flank until his body develops enough to play full time on ball?

This would suit the bombers at pick 19 - relieve Chappy or Winders over the next couple of years before becoming a part of our midfield (and adding much needed speed, class and decision making).

Weller has the scope to play a few positions and his skillset and pace helps with that.

I don't see Weller becoming a full time onballer. He's a reasonable but only reasonable contested ball winner. He's not a big body and more likely would pinch-hit through the midfield at AFL level and play more outside. I'd lean towards a forward or back flank if he finds a position anywhere for a team.

Weller could be a Winderlich replacement but not in Chappy's league and doesn't share that same rare power, strength and ability to impact games.

hi KM great work.how high could you see brendon abbott going in the draft?

Abbott is a draft chance.

Much improved from who he was last year! And has played some good footy in the WAFL seniors. Strong body and what I'm liking is he's showing a rapid upward growth in his game.

Probably a late/rookie pick but if he keeps improving he has the ability to not only get drafted but even quite plausibly make it in our game.

 

[Demon 16]

Related to Andrew?

No. He's the son of Brett Lovett - played for Melbourne as a half back flanker in the late 80's for about 10 years.

He notched up 200+ games for the Dees, so Jake is eligible as a potential father/son pick.

 

[Chris25]

I don't see Weller becoming a full time onballer. He's a reasonable but only reasonable contested ball winner. He's not a big body and more likely would pinch-hit through the midfield at AFL level and play more outside. I'd lean towards a forward or back flank if he finds a position anywhere for a team.

If Weller doesn't make it as a midfielder, then 95% of this draft have no hope.

 

[Knightmare]

If Weller doesn't make it as a midfielder, then 95% of this draft have no hope.

Weller I'd back in to be a rotational midfielder but not a full time onballer. His contested ball winning ability is ok but not dominant. His ground level work sometimes isn't as clean as you'd like and can at times be slightly fumbly. He can also have his quiet patches in games. And he's a small light bodied guy at 181cm, 71kg. That to me isn't a full time onballer.

When talking pure midfielders outside of Brayshaw and Petracca as those top guys Bampton, Blakely, Gore, Neal-Bullen, Waterman and Maynard all have stronger inside games. Doesn't mean they all have better careers than Weller, none of them have the skillset or pace of Weller but they're more your contested ball winners and more your midfielders if that's what you're looking for.

 

[12Chill]

Lachie Weller should be able to bulk up though right? Unlikely to become as big as Mav, but Mav's genetics allowed him to become that big, surely Lachie will be able to get up to that 80kg mark?

 

[Chris25]

Being a midfielder doesn't simply mean being the best contested ball winner. An outside midfielder is still a midfielder.

And yes, Lachie will bulk up with time I'm sure.

 

[Knightmare]

Lachie Weller should be able to bulk up though right? Unlikely to become as big as Mav, but Mav's genetics allowed him to become that big, surely Lachie will be able to get up to that 80kg mark?

Lachie can make it to 80kg. He's just a completely different body type to Mav and won't look or play anything like him. Just expect him to remain mostly an outside/flanker.

Being a midfielder doesn't simply mean being the best contested ball winner. An outside midfielder is still a midfielder.

And yes, Lachie will bulk up with time I'm sure.

The best contested ball winners are the guys with the games that translate best and most frequently.

Weller on a wing? He could do that.

 

[RUNVS]

I appreciate all your great work Knightmare as I find the information you provide on this thread to be very valuable but I can't help but wonder if you are overrating Heeney's ability. Yes he seemed quite good in the championships but he did not set the world on fire and he was playing against second division sides. Don't get me wrong, I think he is good but I also think that the media attention he has gotten recently has over inflated his value and had people assuming he is a better player than he actually is at the moment.