It sure was... if 1st and 2nd won their Week 1 games as they were expected to, the other two Week 1 games were meaningless, 3rd and 4th just swapped opponents the following week.
Might this be the year a 5-8 side wins the flag?
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It sure was... if 1st and 2nd won their Week 1 games as they were expected to, the other two Week 1 games were meaningless, 3rd and 4th just swapped opponents the following week.
last year, Port and North pretty much saved the finals series from being put under review
it's not the perfect system, 1st-4th having more or less the same benefits, but its satisfactory
Never seen a side win 4 knock out finals to win premierships. I know a few have won playing 4 finals but cannot recall anyone winning 4 times in a row during finals where any loss was immediate end of season.
It will get done one year though. Circumstances of an even season where other sides have injuries and a side outside top 4 just gets all the breaks and importantly makes the most of them. Every once in a while some club kind of steals a premiership when not expected to be their year but even if they do, then they still are the premier team of that year for mine because winning the last game at the G is what it is all about. First you got to get there and then you got to make the most of it. Winning 4 finals is tough but unlike in time it was a top five you do not need to beat every other club in finals series. Now you can beat 4 out of the other 7 teams and if you just happen to skip some bogey teams, you never know. I do tend to think this is the year an upset could happen. The team on top of ladder is so suspect at kicking a big enough score in the grand final, then there is West Coast I fear for them that their lack of key defenders will get caught out against some other team with 2 or 3 big forwards. Swans just not been consistent even though they should have enough talent. I worry about their loss of Parker and Buddy being fit when it counts. Their ruck is always uncertain too. They are probably my pick despite all that but I can certainly see reasons they can lose. Hawks the most experienced and reliable team. Have won last two so well in it but they clearly are beatable.
Can the young Dogs do a 1993 Baby Bombers type flag?
Unlikely but they sure will take it on and push some sides. Crows got the forward line to do well and with Jacobs and Dangerfield around the ground they could win a few finals in a row. They will have to travel a bit though. Richmond should have confidence but finals is different to home and away. Just think they lack a bit of class when it counts but this is a year they should be able to win a final or two.
North is the one most expect to flop and see as flakey. I see that too but at same time, I see their spine is dangerous and if they meet someone like Freo in a prelim final I will back North every time. Petrie, Brown and Waite will be hard for them to match up on. The issue for North is they seem to lack absolute class in midfield. They have some grunt but they really needed someone with the real x-factor dazzle like Wells and he looks like he is not going to get on park which is a real shame. I just sense out of the teams out of top 4 if somehow North were to actually get that far they would be more likely to upset a favourite than the others. They are going to have a bunch of players that know it is now or never. That could count. Higgins, Harvey, Petrie, Waite, Dal Santo, Thompson and Firrito will play like there is no tomorrow. The problem is, as a team North have shown they are just as likely to lose to someone like Dogs or Tigers at any moment. At the end of the day the sides outside top 4 all have 6.25% chance of winning premiership on simple maths not taking into account home state advantage or travel factors as possible disadvantages. The sides in top 4 all have an 18.75% chance of winning it. With home state advantages to sides like Freo then you got to think it is even better chance than that. They should at least make a grand final again.
If you look at the ladder, the records between 3rd and 7th are ridiculously close this year. I'd say it's more that missing the double chance is what makes it hard to reach a GF, rather than inherent superiority of the top 4. For this year, at least - in previous years I would have agreed with you.
lmach
Naitanui2Yeo
Won't happen. The winner will come from the top four.
It's the most even top 8 in years but the trips to Perth really works against it happening.
For a team to do it they would have to be a very good side thatsay had a bad start to the year with injury or whatever, and then although getting it together later in the year to finish strongly just miss the 4. Would have to be a Vic side and then jag a good finals draw not having to travel, very tough and unlikely still but someone will probably do it eventually if this finals system is kept for a long time to come.
If someone is to do it my money is on Richmond, but Hawthorn needs to be WC in the QF
Beat Adelaide at the G
Beat Sydney at the SCG
Beat Hawks at the G
Beat Freo at the G
Beat Adelaide at the G
Beat Sydney at the SCG
Beat Hawks at the G
Beat Freo at the G
Watch the video yourself. Tex & McGovern were both going for the ball, as each is perfectly entitled to do. The ball was low and both players went low ... McGovern went lower in that he dived on the ball. Tex spotted McGovern coming in at a different angle and sees that McGovern will just get to the ball first. Tex tries to turn to spin around McGovern in order to try to avoid contact, and he does a fair job of it but McGovern has dangerously slid right underneath Tex and McGovern takes Tex's legs out. Tex falls backwards and lands butt-first on McGovern's shoulder. McGovern is lucky to get a free as his dangerous dive & slide & taking legs out is actually also against the rules.
hotham
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The GF winner will come from the top 2.
There are a couple of unusual factors to consider concerning the Crows this year. The first point to note is that the Crows are just two points shy of a top 4 spot yet they have played one less game than the other finalists. Hmmmmm. The second point to note is that the Crows have had to recover the season from a tragic event outside of their control that unarguably put a big dent in their playing form. The final point is that, yes indeed the Crows are playing well now that they have more or less their full squad available (all bar two), but this is hardly a reason to discount them because they do still have their full squad available.
No. Every year we get seduced by teams 5-8th playing good footy late in the year. It will never happen.. not in the final 8 set up. The old final 8 set up it was possible but I cant see it ever happening.
As far as I know Adelaide in 1997 are the only side ever to have won four finals to win an AFL flag. The finals system being what it was then losing the first week of finals could have resulted in elimination but it was not likely to.
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No reason why not. Richmond don't fear anyone and the Crows and Bulldogs are in good form.
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There would need to be a Steven Bradbury moment for this to happen IMO. Going to be very hard to play in Melbourne, then potentially travel to Perth for a Semi or Prelim.
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Take off your goggles. Walker turned and hit him in the head. He had an option of tackling but chose to turn and bump instead. Should be suspended.
kaiserchief13
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This thread appears every year and in 3 weeks OP will look back at it and think what was I thinking
Walker was perfectly entitled to go for the ball, there is no rule against going for the ball. McGovern dived into Walkers legs ... there is a rule against doing exactly that. Walker turns to try to avoid contact ... he could have cleaned up McGovern really badly had he not done that. Contact was between McGovern's shoulder (which McGovern hurt slightly) and Walkers butt ... contact was caused by McGovern taking Walkers legs out.
Good post, well put. Probability is an area of mathematics that often defies common sense (especially for those of us who don't like maths).
They'd have to do it the tough way and face adversities (especially travel) but I can see Adelaide being a North Melbourne or Port Power from 2014 who at least get to the prelim stage after finishing outside the 4.
There playing good football, have a dominant ruckman in Jacobs, strong midfield that goes deep, good targets inside 50 in Walker, Jenkins, Lynch and Betts and a strong defence. No easy beats.
There playing good football, have a dominant ruckman in Jacobs, strong midfield that goes deep, good targets inside 50 in Walker, Jenkins, Lynch and Betts and a strong defence. No easy beats.
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I should've make a shitty "X team are cooked" thread instead.
I'm not saying it'll happen. All I'm saying is that based on form of those bottom half of the 8 sides its looking like the year that it could.
It simply will not happen.
The only context I can see it occurring is with a top 2 of Vic only teams, and a 5th team (vic or not vic) who plays the G really well, and is a clear standout in the bottom half of the 8.
The only context I can see it occurring is with a top 2 of Vic only teams, and a 5th team (vic or not vic) who plays the G really well, and is a clear standout in the bottom half of the 8.
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Technically, Tex should have received the free.
