Might this be the year a 5-8 side wins the flag?

[Runnin Blue]

Crows are the biggest paper tiger of all time. Check out their fixture since round 10 - arm chair ride. They will get smacked in the finals. Same with the Dogs too. Norf and Tigers might snag a win but it's up to the WA sides to keep Hawks at bay and that's going to be tough.

Still bitter about not making the finals I see. It'll get better. Eventually.

 

[Randomizor]

Depends who knocks Hawks out in the semis

 

[NathanMX]

Agree but if you look at just the prelim it's definitely counterintuitive. A fairer solution would be if the highest positioned H&A team in the prelims could play the lowest seeded team left- this could result in a qualifying final replay though which would probably be boring.

Maybe they could guarantee the top placed prelim contender the friday night and force the other prelim to be on the sunday thus giving the most deserved team (barring an upset) the longer break before the grand final.

 

[ok.crows]

The missing detail there is that Adelaide traveled to Melbourne first up, and lost.
If that happens this time, the rest is irrelevant.

The missing detail there is that Adelaide finished 5th in 1998 and yet had to play away against the side that finished 4th (Melbourne), and for that reason the final was not an elimination final. This year the team that finishes 5th does have to play an elimination final, but they get a home game against the side which finishes 8th.

Very different circumstances for week 1 of finals ... but swings and roundabouts, really. After week 1 the rest of the finals structure was the same in 1998 as it is today.

 

[Moonwatcher]

Its a bit trite, but this is definitely one of the most even seasons I've ever seen.

It's quite amazing but after Friday nights game we knew that the 9th placed team could not make 8th but that the 8th placed team could make 3rd at that stage. Obviously Sydney and Hawks won but it was quite interesting. Don't think I have seen that before.

 

[Connoisseur]

Crows are the biggest paper tiger of all time. Check out their fixture since round 10 - arm chair ride. They will get smacked in the finals. Same with the Dogs too. Norf and Tigers might snag a win but it's up to the WA sides to keep Hawks at bay and that's going to be tough.

Yep, something tells me the crows will get found when the real thing begins. They've done well to get up to this point but I suspect they've spent all their petrol tickets just to make the 8. The may not have much in reserve for finals pressure footy.

 

[MrKK]

Richmond is the only one I could see winning a prelim against Hawthorn or a WA team as they've got the runs on the board in that regard this season. The others have all been beaten heavily either by Hawthorn or in Perth, or both. In Adelaide's case they've been comfortably beaten by every decent team they've played on the road.

And of course any 5-8 team has to actually get to a prelim, which is rare in itself.

 

[Moonwatcher]

Crows are the best equipped but is is statistically unlikely.

Roughly:
50% chance in week one

Strictly speaking there is a 100% chance of a team winning any given elimination final. So your probably would rise to 2%

EDIT: Plus there is a 100% chance that two of the lower 4 get through to the second week. So the probability goes up to 4% and that doesn't include the chance that they get to play each other in the GF.

 

[Hardhat11]

Jeez, you really have an agenda today, don't you..

No I just think you'll get get smashed in the finals ....you won't get those dodgy calls and you won't have any home crowd advantage

 

[Mead]

Cumulative probability is a harsh mistress.

People need to understand it's never about there being a massive gulf in class between 1-4 and 5-8.

It's about there being a series of small variables which progressively stack up against 5th-8th sides to make it extremely hard for them to make, let alone win a grand final.

When you stack together:

- potential travel
- do or die games for 3 weeks
- no week off
- lower bar for finals 'success' means progressively less motivation.

The dice get progressively weighted against them. The week off isn't just huge because of the rest, (which includes both general tiredness and a likelihood that some people will miss through injury) it's huge because it reduces the number of probability hoops a top 4 team has to jump through to win the lot. It's why it's far easier to pick a quinella rather than a trifecta.

Let's say 5th has 55% chance of winning in week 1, because they are better than 8th and have the home ground advantage.

The following week, they will face a better side, on their home turf, which sees a straight sets exit as an unmitigated disaster and will play accordingly. So maybe 5th has a 40% chance of winning in week 2.

Then in the prelim 5th will potentially be traveling again.
Their opponent will be better rested than them, they will probably be carrying a few injuries or a suspension, and they will be a better side to begin with. Plus in the last ten minutes there may be that nagging sense for 5th that even if they don't win everyone will still be pretty happy to have got that far. So maybe 5th has a 35% chance of winning the PF.

Assuming they get through the prelim, they then have the GF probably against a slightly more well rested opponent, and certainly against a somewhat better team. Put those together and let's say 5th has a 40% chance of winning the GF (higher than the PF because the venue is neutral and the opponent at least had to play the week before in an equally cut throat game.

Stack those odds together and there is around a 8% chance of a 5th placed team making a grand final and a 2-3% chance of them winning the lot. 6-8th have progressively lower chances.

By way of comparison, let's say 1st has a 60% chance of winning week 1. If they win, they probably have a 60% chance of winning the PF against a random opponent, and a 50% chance of winning the GF. Plus they have an additional and I can't be ****ed trying to quantify chance of making the GF via the semi final safety net. What that means is first probably about a 35% chance of making the GF and about a 15-20% chance of winning it.

 

[Glenno23]

We can dream, but its very unlikely. 2 teams from outside the 4 made the prelim last year.... this year if the Eages and Freo win the QF then 2 Perth prelims point to a derby GF

 

[Jars458]

Very very unlikely. Perth prelims are so tough.

 

[SA HAWK]

I think it will happen eventually who knows this might be the year.

 

[Power Raid]

anyone in the 8 could win the flag this year except the roos

 

[SA HAWK]

Very very unlikely. Perth prelims are so tough.

Assuming both Perth teams win in the first week.

I give both Sydney & Hawthorn some chance over there.

 

[Jars458]

Assuming both Perth teams win in the first week.

I give both Sydney & Hawthorn some chance over there.

Perth qualifying finals equally tough

 

[FootyTradePro]

After 13 rounds no team was 5-8 so impossible to win the flag from there.

 

[kirky]

Crows are the biggest paper tiger of all time. Check out their fixture since round 10 - arm chair ride. They will get smacked in the finals. Same with the Dogs too. Norf and Tigers might snag a win but it's up to the WA sides to keep Hawks at bay and that's going to be tough.

Obviously a tad upset not contending in September.

Seriously, look at their draw. Played all but Freo and Roos plus the toothless Cats since then. Yes , they lost to Hawks and both Eagles and Swans away (not long after Walshy's passing) but the rest of your post is unadulterated crap.

Yeh, the Cats went out in straight sets last year. Can we do it? Unlikely but hell if you are in the finals you have a chance.

 

[SA HAWK]

Perth qualifying finals equally tough

Tough but not impossible.

I predict 1 of Freo & West Coast will lose the qf.

 

[Go the Guts]

Yep, something tells me the crows will get found when the real thing begins. They've done well to get up to this point but I suspect they've spent all their petrol tickets just to make the 8. The may not have much in reserve for finals pressure footy.

Exactly what everyone said in 97 & 98. We'll be fine.

 

[SA HAWK]

Exactly what everyone said in 97 & 98. We'll be fine.

I was wondering when 97 & 98 was going to be brought up.

Expecting it will be all we hear in Adelaide for the next however many weeks Adelaide's season is still alive.

Happens everytime they make finals.

 

[Runnin Blue]

No I just think you'll get get smashed in the finals ....you won't get those dodgy calls and you won't have any home crowd advantage

You're unravelling is gorgeous. Please continue.

 

[Justinpa1]

Yep, something tells me the crows will get found when the real thing begins. They've done well to get up to this point but I suspect they've spent all their petrol tickets just to make the 8. The may not have much in reserve for finals pressure footy.

Nice to see you do your homework.

We just smashed the hottest team in the league today by 10 goals.

We have only 3 injured players out of our 45 man list.

We will easily beat the Cats next Saturday, they are spent, yes they will be up for their 3 or 4 retiring superstars but can see us running away with it and winning by 6 or 7 goals at the Cattery.

It wont matter whether we play the Tigers at Adelaide Oval or the MCG.

 

[Kermit]

Crows are the biggest paper tiger of all time. Check out their fixture since round 10 - arm chair ride. They will get smacked in the finals. Same with the Dogs too. Norf and Tigers might snag a win but it's up to the WA sides to keep Hawks at bay and that's going to be tough.

Aren't we clever- deducing that 2 of the 5-8 teams will lose and 2 "might snag a win". I would say that, if they happen to play each other, a win for one of them is likely. As for the Crows and the Doggies, one of them also may get a win- particularly if they play each other. Any more insights as to how the finals work? Maybe, just maybe, the premier may just be a team in the finals- how about that little tidbit

 

[kirky]

No I just think you'll get get smashed in the finals ....you won't get those dodgy calls and you won't have any home crowd advantage

Dodgy calls - funny coming from a Cats supporter. More dodgy calls at the Cattery than anywhere.

Enjoy your September off.

You do understand that Crows support away from Adelaide is probably the best of all the non-Victorian sides. Would probably get 20k support at the 'G' for an away final - just look at 2012 PF against Hawks.