2016 Ladder Predictions

[Drewie11]

So, the dogs get a full preseason with their new coach and get their best player back (Libba is the number 1 clearance player in the AFL), you have picked them for top 4? Yes, no?

The dogs have a great up and coming team. Libba is a gun. The only concern I have is the loss of crameri. But boyd could go alright this year. I personally think they could push for top 4.

The additional of suckling is a good one and another year into probably the best youngsters in the comp should keep you on the upwards trend. Very exciting years ahead for the dogs

 

[Drewie11]

Every club has half a dozen "progression of younger players" they can name. Even hawthorn ffs.

Hampton & Seedsman are average at best. Menzel is alright but is he fit?

Crouch is nowhere near Dangerfield.

Hampton and seedsman just have to be better than wright and kerridge and we have added to our list. I don't think he said crouch is near danger but he will definitely help out with the loss

 

[ManOfClay]

Here is some more perfect logical sense.

Western Bulldogs lost griffen arguably their best playing and captain, new coach also. Just wondering if you could tell me how they did last year???

Also lost Higgins who was close to AA last year. One of our best forwards (gia) plus Adam Cooney.


Oh and Liam jones and Jason tutt

 

[Drewie11]

Also lost Higgins who was close to AA last year. One of our best forwards (gia) plus Adam Cooney.


Oh and Liam jones and Jason tutt

Of all the players to forget to make my point, I go and forget Liam Jones (can seriously play)

Higgins is a loss but it was getting past gia and cooney. When you have great young players like you have then you unfortunately have to give some of your older greats a bit of a nudge. Them leaving your team has given opportunities to your up and comers.

Personally for me getting rid of microphone head can only help you this year also

 

[LittleG]

Also lost Higgins who was close to AA last year.
Oh and Liam jones and Jason tutt

Addition by subtraction. The finger pointer, the frozen under pressure and the mistimed jumper.
Sometimes it is better to let the list cloggers go.

 

[ok.crows]

You barely scraped into the finals with Dangerfield playing like a raging bull last year, the is absolutely no certainty about Adelaide making finals this year and you are naive as hell if you think that.

Dangerfield had a good year, but "raging bull" is a bit generous, and one player simply does not make a team.

According to some preseason reports the round 1 Adelaide team may perhaps look something like this:

Brown Talia Lever
Smith Hartigan Laird
Seed Thomo Cameron
Lynch Walker Douglas
Betts Jenkins Menzel
Jacobs Sloane BCrouch
Knight MCrouch Hampton Atkins

You will note that there are 22 names, so it is not like the side is "missing" a player. Dangerfield is of course not one of these names, but somewhat balancing that Brad Crouch, who is also a quality midfielder, is likely to be back in the side. There are three others who would be playing for the first time for the Crows if this were the round 1 side, namely Seedsman, Menzel and Atkins. If these players get named in the side for round 1 it means that they were preferred over other players (e.g. Van Berlo and Mackay) who made the side last year and are still available for selection today. This means that three of the worst performed players from last year will have been replaced in the side. Despite the loss of Dangerfield there is a good case to claim that overall the first 22 will have improved a bit compared to the 2015 side.

With respect to "certainty of making finals" IMO one would be very surprised if some sides missed the finals in 2106 ... Hawthorn, West Coast, perhaps Sydney and Freo would be in this top group. After that there are a whole bunch of sides with legitimate claims to be contenders for the other four spots in the final eight: North, Richmond, Port, Geelong, Bulldogs and Adelaide are certain to be amongst this group, and perhaps Collingwood, GWS and Gold Coast might join it.

 

[ok.crows]

Every club has half a dozen "progression of younger players" they can name. Even hawthorn ffs.

Hampton & Seedsman are average at best. Menzel is alright but is he fit?

If they get picked in the side then they are assessed as being better than the first 22 players from 2015 who are still available but not picked in the side. If those three new players make the side then that is still an improvement over last year's side.

Crouch is nowhere near Dangerfield.

Actually, when he has played his contributions have been quite comparable to Dangerfield's. It is just that through injury Brad Crouch has not yet managed to play many games. I wouldn't claim Brad Crouch is a direct replacement for Dangerfield but he does go quite some way to replacing a fair percentage of Dangerfield's contributions. "Nowhere near" is a gross underestimation of Crouch's contributions. BTW, Matt Crouch has reportedly picked up a meter or two of pace this preseason, which will be Matt's first completed preseason at an AFL level.

 

[Big Fresh]

Yep and I am loving it. Love being the underdog. People picking us to come anywhere from 10th-14th is a joke. We dont rely on Dangerfield. We have B Crouch coming back as well as a fit Sloane. Natural Progression of our younger players like M Crouch, Lyons, Grigg, Knight, Atkins. New comers in The Seed, Hampton and Menzel. Led beautifully by the Big Texan. We will make the finals.

That list of younger players and new comers isn't impressive and doesn't indicate there will be any improvement.

 

[Drewie11]

That list of younger players and new comers isn't impressive and doesn't indicate there will be any improvement.

Could probably throw in kelly, lever and laird

 

[1990crow]

Whatever happens with the Crows this season I am happy with where the list is at, it is young and immensely talented. Add in a quality mid with the Danger cash at the end of the year and 2017 will likely be finals. Really too hard to predict this year given a new coach, new gameplan, additions of new and returning players; B.Crouch, Menzel, Hampton, Seedsman, Milera, Jaensch and what improvement will come from Cameron, Knight, Lever, M.Crouch and Atkins. Include Rory Sloane and Brodie Smith playing full seasons and there's enough there to question the assertion that losing Dangerfield means we will drop 6-8 places on the ladder.

 

[marty36]

So, the dogs get a full preseason with their new coach and get their best player back (Libba is the number 1 clearance player in the AFL), you have picked them for top 4? Yes, no?

Dogs will make top 4 if Boyd lives up to his potential otherwise 4 to 8. Saying that the club probably would like to hear that as they also need him to live up to that potential with the commitment they have made in terms of salary cap!

 

[Papa G]

Dangerfield had a good year, but "raging bull" is a bit generous, and one player simply does not make a team.

According to some preseason reports the round 1 Adelaide team may perhaps look something like this:

Brown Talia Lever
Smith Hartigan Laird
Seed Thomo Cameron
Lynch Walker Douglas
Betts Jenkins Menzel
Jacobs Sloane BCrouch
Knight MCrouch Hampton Atkins

Holy s**t and Crows supporters have the gall to say Port have no depth. That Centre line is quite weak with an aging and slow Thompson and 2 weak wingers, Hartigan as a key back is a massive concern and the bench is a who's who of nobodies. Coupled with the belief that Crouch will automatically step into Dangerfield's role without missing a beat, you can see why most think Adelaide will struggle to make the 8. A long term injury to any of Tex, Talia or Jacobs and Adelaide will probably be bottom 6.

 

[Rod Stroker]

Thread should be re-named 'Crows versus Port cripple fight'

 

[Komrade_Tiger]

I dont think that Adelaide will suddenly drop just because Dangerfield is gone, people predicted the same thing for Hawthorn with Buddy yet in a way it made them even harder to beat as there was no longer just "bomb it to Buddy".....yes i know that you can't compare losing a Top 5 in the comp midfielder to a KPF no matter how good the KPF is but the way i see it is that it will be much harder to predict who the Adelaide midfield will rely on week-in week-out

 

[Mitchell54]

Can we stop the sh*tfight plz. this thread has derailed. just post your LADDER predictions and get on with it.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Can we stop the sh*tfight plz. this thread has derailed. just post your LADDER predictions and get on with it.

 

[RePete]

Holy s**t and Crows supporters have the gall to say Port have no depth. That Centre line is quite weak with an aging and slow Thompson and 2 weak wingers, Hartigan as a key back is a massive concern and the bench is a who's who of nobodies. Coupled with the belief that Crouch will automatically step into Dangerfield's role without missing a beat, you can see why most think Adelaide will struggle to make the 8. A long term injury to any of Tex, Talia or Jacobs and Adelaide will probably be bottom 6.

If Lobbe gets injured for a significant amount of time, Port will easily be bottom 6 with opponents rucks averaging about 60 hitouts against them. gg

 

[JimmyBeerCans]

If Lobbe gets injured for a significant amount of time, Port will easily be bottom 6 with opponents rucks averaging about 60 hitouts against them. gg

It's good old Rinse n' RePete!! nice to see you are as delusional as ever

 

[Farang83150]

Thread should be re-named 'Crows versus Port cripple fight'

What he said.

 

[Janus]

If Lobbe gets injured for a significant amount of time, Port will easily be bottom 6 with opponents rucks averaging about 60 hitouts against them. gg

Really? That's great - score a top six draft pick for 2017 and get Ryder and Monfries back with an even easier draw than this year because we get double ups against bottom six teams. AKA the West Coast gambit.

Another quality mid that can push forward ala Wingard/Gray will do us fine thanks. Cheers.

 

[schmuttt]

Not going to try and predict exact positions as that is a guessing game, but a few general thoughts I have on the upcoming season:

Aside from Hawthorn I think the top 4 is wide open, anyone out of WCE/Freo/Sydney/Richmond/North/Port/Geelong/Collingwood/GWS could sneak in. The competition feels like it gets closer every year and I think this year will be the closest yet, obviously not an unpopular call that there will be a huge logjam in the middle of the ladder.

Honestly can't see a bolter from the bottom 6 like we had with the Dogs in 2015, us and the Saints are definitely the two teams from the 6 last year that should rise the most, but even then I can't see either of us moving more than 2-3 spots up the ladder (Happy to be proven wrong though). Carlton and Essendon are a lock for bottom 2, but they also both should win at least 2 games each. Feel like the Crows will slide out of the 8, they won't drop to bottom 6 or anything ridiculous but I have them around 10th.

 

[blueiris]

I have finally checked out the Lions AFL fixture anyone else think the AFL are trying to screw the Lions over for not finishing last I mean come on 4 of the top 8 teams in the first 6 rounds give a break does the AFL ever want us to secede see I can complain too

 

[ok.crows]

Holy s**t and Crows supporters have the gall to say Port have no depth. That Centre line is quite weak with an aging and slow Thompson and 2 weak wingers, Hartigan as a key back is a massive concern and the bench is a who's who of nobodies. Coupled with the belief that Crouch will automatically step into Dangerfield's role without missing a beat, you can see why most think Adelaide will struggle to make the 8. A long term injury to any of Tex, Talia or Jacobs and Adelaide will probably be bottom 6.

You are of course entitled to your opinion however obviously wrong it may be.

Hartigan is indeed the concerning player in the Crows backline but the rest of it is far more solid than you give it credit for. Hartigan is a work in progress but he is improving, and there is reason to point out that Laird and Lever both have relatively few games experience but are nevertheless upcoming stars and could reasonably be expected to be even better this year compared to last. I feel compelled to point out that, despite reputations, the Crows backline was comparatively as well-preformed as Port's last year.

No-one is claiming that Crouch will automatically step into Dangerfield's role without missing a beat so perhaps you should address what they are actually claiming: that overall the Crows can hope for/expect a slight improvement over the 2015 best 22 ... a best 22 that did better than Port's last year I might add.

Oh, BTW, since this is a Ladder prediction thread, how about we get back to the topic ... do you have any comment on the prediction in the post to which you replied:

one would be very surprised if some sides missed the finals in 2106 ... Hawthorn, West Coast, perhaps Sydney and Freo would be in this top group. After that there are a whole bunch of sides with legitimate claims to be contenders for the other four spots in the final eight: North, Richmond, Port, Geelong, Bulldogs and Adelaide are certain to be amongst this group, and perhaps Collingwood, GWS and Gold Coast might join it.

 

[Connar]

With Jarryd Roughead being out for 5 Months, here is my Fresh Top 8 Ladder Predictions:

1. Sydney (R-U)
2. Fremantle (P)
3. Hawthorn
4. West Coast
5. Port Adelaide
6. Western Bulldogs
7. North Melbourne
8. Collingwood

 

[Fonetiks]

I wont be posting my prediction for this season just yet, but thought I'd get a little feedback on a a "Pick the Ladder" competition I run each year at work and for mates...

Currently I use a +10 correct guess, -1 for each position away, total points formula to calculate the nearest prediction from all submissions. Last season, only 3 people out of 50 odd managed to picked 4 teams in their exact position. Goes to show no team is a sure thing in any spot, let alone region of the ladder, and every year there are always 1 or 2 teams that bolt up, or drop away. Trying to work out which teams that will be, is anyone's guess.

To give you a better idea, here are the winner's picks from last season's competition... They won by just 1 point.

photo sharing websites

If anyone has some ideas on how a different scoring system could be better, jump in! I initially decided each spot on the ladder should have the same weight, but I haven't seen how others competitions are run so I'm certainly open to suggestions.

Cheers and good luck!