Rumour 2024 Hypothetical trade and FA Thread

[Bugs1977]

I love Baz and was 100% on board for us trading a F1 for him because he was a known commodity. However, now after rupturing his ACL I'm not so sure because he goes from being a known commodity to an unknown commodity. Case in point is that even though ACL recovery is better than it ever has been there's still a high chance of re-rupture (see Tom Doodee earlier in the week) and also the the increased percentage of him doing the other knee. I honestly don't think we're in a position at this stage of our rebuild to take the risk with Baz because as has been mentioned here it realistically takes 18 months for players coming off of ACLs to recover and get back to their best.

My worry with Baz is that he's a renowned over trainer which can be a good thing but also a bad thing. From all reports his training habits are at full on OCD levels and just as important as it is to train hard it's just as important to recover. The question I pose is does his OCD level training shoot himself in the foot trying to impress all his new teammates if he was to come to the Hawks. It's also no secret that he's come off of 2 lean years prior to this season that he'll be missing so he'll be hell bent on proving himself no matter where he lands.

Just want to make it clear I'm not totally against trying to get him but I'm definitely not cool with us giving up a top 10 pick for him. Like BIGHAWK23 mentions above I wouldn't be against splitting our 1st rounder with say the Suns and giving up one of them for him which at this stage would be pick 2 to GC for picks 9 + 11. Even then if you back to previous drafts you'll find teams ask for more than that for top 3 picks. Maybe something like pick 2 + 24 to GC for picks 9, 11 and 20. We could then trade pick 11 for Baz and then use pick 9 + 20 in the draft. Something that hasn't even been considered in all this is if the Suns have any father sons they need points for which is another conversation all together. The only option then would be splitting our 1st rounder with Freo but like the Suns there's a lot of water to pass under the bridge. Maybe it's just best to go with the best rated option in the draft

 

[BIGHAWK23]

I love Baz and was 100% on board for us trading a F1 for him because he was a known commodity. However, now after rupturing his ACL I'm not so sure because he goes from being a known commodity to an unknown commodity. Case in point is that even though ACL recovery is better than it ever has been there's still a high chance of re-rupture (see Tom Doodee earlier in the week) and also the the increased percentage of him doing the other knee. I honestly don't think we're in a position at this stage of our rebuild to take the risk with Baz because as has been mentioned here it realistically takes 18 months for players coming off of ACLs to recover and get back to their best.

My worry with Baz is that he's a renowned over trainer which can be a good thing but also a bad thing. From all reports his training habits are at full on OCD levels and just as important as it is to train hard it's just as important to recover. The question I pose is does his OCD level training shoot himself in the foot trying to impress all his new teammates if he was to come to the Hawks. It's also no secret that he's come off of 2 lean years prior to this season that he'll be missing so he'll be hell bent on proving himself no matter where he lands.

Just want to make it clear I'm not totally against trying to get him but I'm definitely not cool with us giving up a top 10 pick for him. Like BIGHAWK23 mentions above I wouldn't be against splitting our 1st rounder with say the Suns and giving up one of them for him which at this stage would be pick 2 to GC for picks 9 + 11. Even then if you back to previous drafts you'll find teams ask for more than that for top 3 picks. Maybe something like pick 2 + 24 to GC for picks 9, 11 and 20. We could then trade pick 11 for Baz and then use pick 9 + 20 in the draft. Something that hasn't even been considered in all this is if the Suns have any father sons they need points for which is another conversation all together. The only option then would be splitting our 1st rounder with Freo but like the Suns there's a lot of water to pass under the bridge. maybe it's just best to go with the best rated option in the draft

Gold Coast have Leo Lombard

Jet

 

[cryptor]

Would be an interesting move to say the least. For all the Sleepy Mark gags (apologies everyone) we've had over the years the club has shown that it's willing to try to be aggressive and pull the trigger on moves - Weddle deal being the obvious example that was completed. We tried to trade this year's first in order to draft O'Sullivan too.

Personally I'd rather we keep our first. I expect it's going to be a top four pick, and as it stands the top three in the draft look like great prospects. Plenty of time for others to announce themselves though so maybe by the end of the season splitting the pick would look like a great option.

I reckon we're just fishing at the moment. It's round 3 and our form could quickly change (as it has before) and we could end up with a later pick that invalidates any potential deals or interest based on us having a top 3 pick.

But letting the comp know via the media that we're open to it now would probably result in some list managers reaching out and showing their hand a bit. Information is power.

 

[Bugs1977]

Gold Coast have Leo Lombard

Jet

Well if it's just the one kid they need points for then it could maybe work out. If we do look to split the pick for Baz then it will come down to betting on that he and whomever we get later in the 1st round is a better return than who we could draft without splitting the pick. For example if you used last years draft as an example + the current ladder positions / draft order then the deal* would effectively be:

Suns get – Colby McKercher (pick 2)

Hawthorn get – Bailey Smith + Nate Caddy (pick 9)

Bulldogs get – Connor O'Sullivan (pick 11)

Other things to note is that in the above scenario

• the Suns could draft anyone not named Harely Reid.
• assuming the Suns took Colby McKercher then the Hawks would've had a choice between Nate Caddy, Connor O'Sullivan or anyone picked below that that wasn't tied to an academy or FS pick.

In this scenario if we traded pick 2 for Bailey Smith + Nate Caddy then I'd be furious. *Yes I understand that the 2023 draft class will likely be a lot stronger than the upcoming 2024 draft class so this is just a guide but it's important to look at it like this.

 

[RoughysMullet]

Don’t want Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

if it involves giving up or splitting our 1st pick - he’s damaged goods coming off an ACL and the top 5 mids (FOS, Draper, Smillie, Jagga Smith, Moraes) in this draft look great- we need to get our hands on one of them

 

[Lickmesocks]

If we managed to snare a KF like McDonald or the like could Mitch Lewis play KD if he completed a pre season there?

Lewis needs to LIFT his intensity and effort massively or he will be playing at Box Hill soon.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Lewis needs to LIFT his intensity and effort massively or he will be playing at Box Hill soon.

Nah, that’s not going to happen.

 

[Flamin Joe]

Insane to be spending a top 10 pick on a guy coming off a knee reco.

Shaun Burgoyne says hi.

And before people say they are not the same player, I remember many on here questioned the decision and didn't rate him much at all. Look how that turned out.

 

[Bugs1977]

Shaun Burgoyne says hi.

And before people say they are not the same player, I remember many on here questioned the decision and didn't rate him much at all. Look how that turned out.

The thing you have to consider is that the Hawks at that point were a couple of seasons removed from winning a premiership (2008) so brining in Shaun at that stage was like adding the cherry to the top of cake. Brining in Baz now is not the same situation as we're still in rebuild mode.

I'll roll with whatever the club decides to do but I can't help but feel if we truely want to add another midfielder than maybe it's worth just taking one in the top 5 draft if that's where we end up. You have to assume that Baz will only hit his straps after next season and that's only if a) he can regain his best form from 2 seasons ago b) his rehab goes smoothly. Prior to the ACL injury I was all for chasing him but now I'm not so sure and I can't help but feel it has a chance to end up like the JOM situation. Maybe it's just PTSD from how that turned out but at some stage you need to stop gambling on injured players.

 

[Rob R]

Twomey also saying we're prepared to trade our first this year

Hopefully he is wrong unless.maybe FOR JUH

On SM-A125F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[H00t]

Shaun Burgoyne says hi.

And before people say they are not the same player, I remember many on here questioned the decision and didn't rate him much at all. Look how that turned out.

Different players but also different teams.

We were able to manage Burgers through the year and only put him in the middle sparingly. His knee massively limited him.

Smith doesn’t really have a secondary position to go to and he really needs his speed and agility. If we outlay a lot it needs to be on a sure thing.

I’m for getting Smith I just don’t want to be giving up too much. Pick 10+ is fine. I wouldn’t want to give up a pick 5 or earlier though even with a first rounder coming back.

 

[Rob R]

Hmmm I keep hearing the Cats are leading the race.

Hope so, not a priority nerd and would cost too much. Based on form, was worth a mid 1st pre injury, now it is a late 1st. Better to wait for FA if we really want him.

On SM-A125F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Lickmesocks]

Nah, that’s not going to happen.

Needs a massive LIFT and he has plenty of mates SYL.

 

[RoughysMullet]

Twomey also saying we're prepared to trade our first this year

Twomey hopes we do- the Essendon nuffie he is

 

[theiaofseed]

Lewis needs to LIFT his intensity and effort massively or he will be playing at Box Hill soon.

Are we really going to start that Lewis doesn't work hard enough narrative again from 2 years ago??

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Shaun Burgoyne says hi.

And before people say they are not the same player, I remember many on here questioned the decision and didn't rate him much at all. Look how that turned out.

So does Doedee, JOM, Scully, Patton and all the other players that were signed following a significant injury that either re-injured themselves, or never recaptured their pre-injury form. Burgoyne is the absolute best case scenario exception to the rule.

At the end of the day the club will be privy to all of the relevant medical information, so if they have done their due diligence then I think it's reasonable to assume that the prognosis is good.

 

[Blackhawk42]

So does Doedee, JOM, Scully, Patton and all the other players that were signed following a significant injury that either re-injured themselves, or never recaptured their pre-injury form. Burgoyne is the absolute best case scenario exception to the rule.

At the end of the day the club will be privy to all of the relevant medical information, so if they have done their due diligence then I think it's reasonable to assume that the prognosis is good.

You've listed players with multiple serious injuries in their playing history. Or in Scully's case, a badly broken ankle that was career threatening in its own right.

Pertracca, Sicily, Liberatore, Taylor Walker, to name a few, are players who returned following ACL injuries in career best form. Petracca did his before he'd ever played a senior game of AFL.

Bailey Smith is as professional as they come. He will be (and is currently) doing everything he can to return in elite condition.

 

[TylerDurden]

You've listed players with multiple serious injuries in their playing history. Or in Scully's case, a badly broken ankle that was career threatening in its own right.

Pertracca, Sicily, Liberatore, Taylor Walker, to name a few, are players who returned following ACL injuries in career best form. Petracca did his before he'd ever played a senior game of AFL.

Bailey Smith is as professional as they come. He will be (and is currently) doing everything he can to return in elite condition.

Agree. Baz is obsessive in his training.
Once he signs with us and gets to fulfill a childhood dream to play for Hawthorn, then look out.

 

[Lickmesocks]

Twomey hopes we do- the Essendon nuffie he is

How would Twomey know. Imagine Macca telling Cal what our plans are 6 months in advance

 

[Lickmesocks]

Agree. Baz is obsessive in his training.
Once he signs with us and gets to fulfill a childhood dream to play for Hawthorn, then look out.

TD love your enthusiasm but keep hearing the Catters.

 

[Lickmesocks]

Are we really going to start that Lewis doesn't work hard enough narrative again from 2 years ago??

The QE2 has a quicker turning circle at the minute.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

You've listed players with multiple serious injuries in their playing history. Or in Scully's case, a badly broken ankle that was career threatening in its own right.

Pertracca, Sicily, Liberatore, Taylor Walker, to name a few, are players who returned following ACL injuries in career best form. Petracca did his before he'd ever played a senior game of AFL.

Bailey Smith is as professional as they come. He will be (and is currently) doing everything he can to return in elite condition.

Look I'm not against bringing Smith over, I think he's a gun. He's an OCD trainer. The only issue for me would be the potential price. And like I said the club would be privy to the medical information.

Also, you forgot Selwood.

 

[Brant]

The QE2 has a quicker turning circle at the minute.

He's playing quite differently to how he has the last 2yrs.

Reckon something might be hampering him, or convinced he just decided over the off-season to become lazy?

 

[The Kipster]

Lewis needs to LIFT his intensity and effort massively or he will be playing at Box Hill soon.

I would be extremely surprised if that happened. He is normally a beautiful set shot and great on the lead, something we lack.

 

[Slysh]

Please no splitting our pick this year, we have acquired a lot of good/potential good players who can be a part of our next tilt. We are lacking enough true game breaking elite match winners. If the pick ends up being a top 3 pick which is reasonable or even just a top 5 pick it needs to be off the table unless it is being moved for a truly elite talent.

Smith is OOC, coming off a poor year and coming off an ACL. I have been a big fan of his since he came in to the AFL and i would like to have him at the club but in no way should that pick be involved in any Smith trade.