Strategy Freo's Top 4 Chances

[Allikat]

So this seems to be getting spread over a couple of threads and is getting a bit confusing, so I thought it'd be a good idea to consolidate all our thoughts on Freo's run home to the finals.

(From another thread) Currently, Freo (2 games to go) & Port (1 game) are tied with 56 points. For those getting confused we can:

Win v Bris Win v Port = Freo 4th (64points v 56)
Win v Bris Lose v Port = Freo & Port fight for 4th on percentage (60 points v 60)
Win v Bris Draw v Port = Freo 4th (62 points v 58)
Lose v Bris Win v Port = Freo 4th (60 points v 56)
Lose v Bris Lose v Port = Freo out of the 4 (56 points v 60)
Lose v Bris Draw v Port = Freo 5th (58 points v 58 but we can't catch on percentage)
Draw v Bris Win v Port = Freo 4th (62 points v 56)
Draw v Bris Lose v Port = Freo 5th(58 points v 60)
Draw v Bris Draw v Port = Freo 4th (60 points v 58)

If North win their next 2 games, and we lose our next 2 we can finish as low as 6th.

A few people are suggesting resting players and tanking the Brisbane game. I don't like this idea because

1. it's too late to change the team to too much extent
2. players are needing to cement their position in the team for the finals, or haven't played much & need to get some good form going e.g. Croz, Ibbo, Son Son
3. winning v Bris gives us 3/3 scenarios where we can still technically be top 4.

Another point - do Port want to be top 4? For them it means travelling 2 weeks in a row. The reward they get for a top 4 finish is a trip to Sydney to face Sydney at most 7 days after travelling to Perth. Will 5th spot be worth staying at for the opportunity to host their first final, with it potentially being a showdown v Adelaide (looking unlikely but not impossible).

 

[Janus]

Another point - do Port want to be top 4? For them it means travelling 2 weeks in a row. The reward they get for a top 4 finish is a trip to Sydney to face Sydney at most 7 days after travelling to Perth. Will 5th spot be worth staying at for the opportunity to host their first final, with it potentially being a showdown v Adelaide (looking unlikely but not impossible).

I'll answer this part for you. Top 4 is the difference between 3 matches to win a premiership vs 4. Upsets happen - your team of all should know that after last year. Plus, if we do the 'unthinkable' and beat Sydney...we get the week off, play one of Geelong/Hawthorn/Fremantle (most likely) at home in a prelim final.

So yeah, we want to be top four. Our football when we are on is good enough to beat anyone.

 

[pavsbootlace]

Another point - do Port want to be top 4? For them it means travelling 2 weeks in a row. The reward they get for a top 4 finish is a trip to Sydney to face Sydney at most 7 days after travelling to Perth. Will 5th spot be worth staying at for the opportunity to host their first final, with it potentially being a showdown v Adelaide (looking unlikely but not impossible).

No, you've got this wrong.

A team that finishes 3rd or 4th will play away in week one. If they win, they have a week off before playing at home. If they lose, they play at home the next week.

Top 4 is a massive advantage, particularly to Non-Vic teams.

 

[clogged]

Meh. Anywhere between 3rd and 6th is a possibility at the moment. If the team doesn't make top four it will be because of a whole season's worth of efforts, not the last two games.

 

[Allikat]

No, you've got this wrong.

A team that finishes 3rd or 4th will play away in week one. If they win, they have a week off before playing at home. If they lose, they play at home the next week.

Top 4 is a massive advantage, particularly to Non-Vic teams.

I meant the round 23 v us at Subi then first final v Sydney in Sydney.

I agree they should want to win. But I think them tanking our game is about as sound a strategy as us tanking against Brisbane (which I think is a terrible strategy)

 

[Nothing]

Prior to last night Port's results:
9 point win over a Gary Ablett-less GC Suns
26 point loss to Sydney
6 point loss to Collingwood
3 point win over Melbourne
20 point loss to Richmond

Hardly the greatest of form. They played well last night, but they were playing against witches hats.

 

[clogged]

Prior to last night Port's results:
9 point win over a Gary Ablett-less GC Suns
26 point loss to Sydney
6 point loss to Collingwood
3 point win over Melbourne
20 point loss to Richmond

Hardly the greatest of form. They played well last night, but they were playing against witches hats.

Problem is that Freo without Fyfe and Barlow is a much lesser side.

I'm still tipping Freo but it's not going to be an easy game. And really, if premiership contention hinges on the last round, you're probably not going to win the premiership.

 

[Admiral Byng]

There's no easy path to the grand final. I'd don't buy this idea of teams choosing not to win so they manipulate where and when they play. Any team, any where, any time, give maximum effort in both our remaining matches, and then let the cards fall as they may.

 

[Square Peg]

There's no easy path to the grand final. I'd don't buy this idea of teams choosing not to win so they manipulate where and when they play. Any team, any where, any time, give maximum effort in both our remaining matches, and then let the cards fall as they may.

I can understand what you are saying, but I just think it's pretty naive to go helter skelter in the wet in a game that for all intents and purposes doesn't matter, when there is a game that does matter six days later. I reckon we should use this game tomorrow to try out a few things we want to try out tactically leading into finals, and make sure we go around with a preservation mindset

 

[purplepassion82]

As I said in another thread....

Guys, just relax, and take a deep breath. We've got this, 4th spot will be ours after next weekend. Did nobody watch us last weekend against the reigning premiers?? Granted weve lost two of our three big mids, BUT we get back our leading goal scorer, the final round will be on our own turf and the boys will be primed. Ross has them peaking at just the right time, with a very healthy competition for spots in the team come finals time. They've got this. Have the faith.

 

[Admiral Byng]

I can understand what you are saying, but I just think it's pretty naive to go helter skelter in the wet in a game that for all intents and purposes doesn't matter, when there is a game that does matter six days later. I reckon we should use this game tomorrow to try out a few things we want to try out tactically leading into finals, and make sure we go around with a preservation mindset

I think we should crush them all like paper cups. We should intimidate other teams and make them fear us in finals.

 

[pavsbootlace]

I meant the round 23 v us at Subi then first final v Sydney in Sydney.

I agree they should want to win. But I think them tanking our game is about as sound a strategy as us tanking against Brisbane (which I think is a terrible strategy)

Ok, cool. Even still top 4 is a massive advantage for any team.

 

[ilikepotatoes]

Just win both games.
Problem solved.

Won't be easy though.

 

[PapaJ]

Been doing some sums myself this morning.

To illustrate the point; our biggest win of the year was against Bris at Subi. A similar win (105-22) would give us essentially a 1 goal buffer going into the Port game (i.e. we could lose to PA by 6 or less and we still finish ahead of them on %).

Or another way; a really strong 11 goal win for us, say 110-44 will still mean Port only have to beat us by 1 point to jump our %

Not looking good people - but still reckon we've got to give it a shot. If for some reason Bris do a Carlton, throw the towel in after 10 minutes, drop their draws and bend over, we need to be switched on and primed to take full advantage. I don't think it will happen, but you've got to go in with the mentality that it can be done.

 

[Angus Young]

you want to win the flag you got to finish top 4..period. stop with the other nonsense.

Freo got to throw everything at Port and make top 4 otherwise its a god dam disaster. And they should be able to be able to beat Port at home ffs.

 

[ilikepotatoes]

Not looking good people - but still reckon we've got to give it a shot. If for some reason Bris do a Carlton, throw the towel in after 10 minutes, drop their draws and bend over, we need to be switched on and primed to take full advantage. I don't think it will happen, but you've got to go in with the mentality that it can be done.

This.
If Adelaide can destroy the Lions, there is no reason why we can't. Just gotta play our game and give ourselves any advantage we can going into the Port game.

 

[PapaJ]

you want to win the flag you got to finish top 4..period. stop with the other nonsense.

Freo got to throw everything at Port and make top 4 otherwise its a god dam disaster. And they should be able to be able to beat Port at home ffs.

Who's suggesting we wont?

 

[Spoken4]

I'll answer this part for you. Top 4 is the difference between 3 matches to win a premiership vs 4. Upsets happen - your team of all should know that after last year. Plus, if we do the 'unthinkable' and beat Sydney...we get the week off, play one of Geelong/Hawthorn/Fremantle (most likely) at home in a prelim final.

So yeah, we want to be top four. Our football when we are on is good enough to beat anyone.

Top 4 is the difference between 3 matches to win a premiership vs 4 matches if you win your away qualifying final (which you will be the underdog to do). Lose that and you have 4 matches to win a premiership -qualifying final, home semi, away prelim and away grand final.

 

[ChimpaWompa]

Just need to continue the form against the Lions, then after that there's nothing to worry about. Dockers have a 100% win rate when i'm in attendance.

 

[Spoken4]

Just need to continue the form against the Lions, then after that there's nothing to worry about. Dockers have a 100% win rate when i'm in attendance.

Get your butt to Brisbane pronto.

 

[PapaJ]

This.
If Adelaide can destroy the Lions, there is no reason why we can't. Just gotta play our game and give ourselves any advantage we can going into the Port game.

Something like that. Which is why I've come around from my earlier thoughts. We've got to go in with the mentality that we are going to destroy them - we're a top 4 quality side against a bottom 4 team and we should put them in their place. If we come out firing, at this stage of the season, the lesser teams can start wilting because they've got so little to play for. On the other hand, if we go in thinking about next week, we wont even get close to a big win, so you may as well tank and give it up all together.

If by 3/4 time or so a decent win looks unlikely, then start resting players on the field, park the bus, go into energy conservation mode whatever, throw the game if you have to, but at this stage I hope RTB has got them up, firing and hungry to destroy them.

 

[Spoken4]

Something like that. Which is why I've come around from my earlier thoughts. We've got to go in with the mentality that we are going to destroy them - we're a top 4 quality side against a bottom 4 team and we should put them in their place. If we come out firing, at this stage of the season, the lesser teams can start wilting because they've got so little to play for. On the other hand, if we go in thinking about next week, we wont even get close to a big win, so you may as well tank and give it up all together.

If by 3/4 time or so a decent win looks unlikely, then start resting players on the field, park the bus, go into energy conservation mode whatever, throw the game if you have to, but at this stage I hope RTB has got them up, firing and hungry to destroy them.

I reckon we cryo freeze half the team at 3/4 time. Han Solo style.

 

[pokerspiv]

Top 4 is the difference between 3 matches to win a premiership vs 4 matches if you win your away qualifying final (which you will be the underdog to do). Lose that and you have 4 matches to win a premiership -qualifying final, home semi, away prelim and away grand final.

Has anyone ever won after losing the QF? I would be interested to know.

 

[BananaOnTheRun]

We won't lose much in terms of team pressure and while we have lost Barlow and Fyfe, we do gain the services of Ballas and Walters together for the first time in ages. They will be roaming from half back to half forward and along with Croz, will be an absolute handful.

 

[Righteo]

Has anyone ever won after losing the QF? I would be interested to know.

2005-2006.