- Jun 11, 2013
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- AFL Club
- Geelong
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So I took the time to do a ladder predictor. Of course it means diddly squad and heavily affected by the rose coloured filter on my monitor, but I had us losing to Adelaide in Adelaide and Brissy in Brissy. Here is how it ended up looking.
View attachment 1909995
I'm suffering from, I'm jumping out of my skin for it all to kick off and I have to channel that energy into something.I’m a glass half empty type.
You’re a glass overflowing type.
Hope you are on the money though.
Not wrapped in playing them in Darwin in the real thing this year a win there would be a bonus for the Cats.Just won't be the same without the obligatory preseason embarrassment at the hands of the Suns, though. Recent results there certainly proved illuminating (in the inverse sense) about the relative strength of the two teams for the season ahead.
2020 Marsh Community Series
Suns 122
Cats 54
Suns finished 14th, Cats played in the GF.
2022 AAMI Community Series
Suns 95
Cats 72
Suns finished 12th, Cats won the GF.
For myself, then, a few positive signs from returning and emerging players (along with a clean bill of health when the final siren goes) is all I'm really looking for in any preseason hit-out from year to year.
I agree. I see it as a problem game. They have been good up there over the years and we are going in with little experience of the conditions. Another 'shock loss' looms...Not wrapped in playing them in Darwin in the real thing this year a win there would be a bonus for the Cats.
So I took the time to do a ladder predictor. Of course it means diddly squad and heavily affected by the rose coloured filter on my monitor, but I had us losing to Adelaide in Adelaide and Brissy in Brissy. Here is how it ended up looking.
View attachment 1909995
Completely agreed.I'm suffering from, I'm jumping out of my skin for it all to kick off and I have to channel that energy into something.
I've always found I become a dreamer when I'm in that mood.
At least it is more fun than getting down about it. That comes in August when I realise I've just been wrong all season
Adelaide in Adelaide in Round 2, and Brissy in Brissy in Round 6, then we just go on a massive run. If the season did play out the way I'd predicted for us my biggest worry heading into finals would be that we hadn't really been tested much in the back half of the season.Very optimistic. What are the two games you see us dropping out of interest?
Carlton? I laugh in the face of Carlton. They'll go alright but won't make it.
Their form post-round 14 was unreal. They went up 5 goals in the PF on the enemy turf. If they didn't flounder between rounds 5 and 13 and went 1-8, with at least 4 games they should've won, they would've been a top 4 team and probably 3rd at worst. If it resulted in a home QF, they would've knocked off whoever and had a home PF, which they probably win, too.
They have the list and absolute firepower around the field. If they're healthy and put it together like they did at the end of last season they're absolutely flag contenders.
Spot on. Scores from turnover differential got flipped on its head in 2023 after it was stellar in 2022 especially.I was listening to Buckley on SEN the other day talk about the evolution of game-plans and the short version is all 4 of our flags started with a strong intercept game in our defense. So getting back to being really good at that would be a great start for us climbing the ladder again.
We need SDK to get back into some good form again and hopefully an injury free Jack Henry to sure up our defense.
And for our midfield, I'm hoping someone besides Guthrie/Danger start stepping up and picking up the slack. Don't care who it is but someone needs to take the next step.
As for the forward-line if everyone is fit and firing it should trouble just about any team, especially if Stengle/Cameron/Hawkins are back to 22 form. Then we have Rohan/Close/Miers/Ollie on top.
So I took the time to do a ladder predictor. Of course it means diddly squad and heavily affected by the rose coloured filter on my monitor, but I had us losing to Adelaide in Adelaide and Brissy in Brissy. Here is how it ended up looking.
View attachment 1909995
Can’t believe you had us losing 2 - did you factor in resting the full squad in last 2 rounds to rest for finals?So I took the time to do a ladder predictor. Of course it means diddly squad and heavily affected by the rose coloured filter on my monitor, but I had us losing to Adelaide in Adelaide and Brissy in Brissy. Here is how it ended up looking.
View attachment 1909995
They do a summary post season. It seemed the very best last year were the journos rather than the models, then it's pretty even scattering.Jokes aside I found squiggle interesting. If anyone knows anything about their algorithm then please chime in.
Running the whole season auto-tip about 30 times we land in a really tight band of 6-8th. Once it has its top 4 and once 11th.
These kinds of algorithms I find are not much more reliable than personal judgement at a match to match level but I wonder if taken over a whole season where outcomes revert to mean a bit more that squiggle might be more accurate?
Can’t believe you had us losing 2 - did you factor in resting the full squad in last 2 rounds to rest for finals?
That certainly makes sense, thanks for the insight. I'll take a look at the resultsThey do a summary post season. It seemed the very best last year were the journos rather than the models, then it's pretty even scattering.
Rate My Ladder - Squiggle
How accurate was your ladder prediction? Drag teams to where you tipped them to finish, then check your score.squiggle.com.au
I think the caveat there is that it depends how you measure 'best'. For example, I think they punish big discrepancies from actual vs predicted ladder position. Which means that a couple of teams severely over or under achieving probably influence results. That's to say, the models are probably less likely to have successfully predicted Geelong would drop out of the 8 when all the data would suggest we were a vey good side coming into the season, whereas there would certainly be a handful of journos predicting the 'cliff', which turned out to be somewhat true last year. Similar for GWS moving up so many spots.
Losing Cam Guthrie is not a great start to our campaign. The way he went down, if we see him anywhere near it before 12 weeks from today, I’ll be happy.
No no, not nearly negative enough.Very surprised at the pessimism here. An even run with injuries and we make the 8 in a canter. This team is not that different to the one that won a flag 18 months ago but was cruelled by injuries last year.
Losing Cam Guthrie is not a great start to our campaign. The way he went down, if we see him anywhere near it before 12 weeks from today, I’ll be happy.
The walking off part is good. He did look like he got shot when he went down though.Lol, it was a quad mate, and he walked off the field - so I'd be surprised if he's not back by Round 3-6. 3 months is nuts.
He did go down like he was shot though. They might be cautiousLol, it was a quad mate, and he walked off the field - so I'd be surprised if he's not back by Round 3-6. 3 months is nuts.