Prediction How will the Geelong Cats fare in season 2024?

[Vdubs]

Cover all bases!

One of those seasons where either result would not surprise; can't recall a previous season where bottom 4 was as believable as top 4

 

[CatToTheFuture]

The worry stems from the fact that despite missing a significant number of games last year and undergoing extensive rehabilitation, he couldn't endure even a minute in this week's game. Understandably, this situation does little to instil confidence.

I think Geelong will need more midfield support however:.

• Bruhn looked sharp and I think can be that bull.
• Bowes will add class. Very tidy player with great disposal
• Mannagh will by top 22 from the first game
• Wiltshire will surprise many this year and has great run and carry

Iff Danger and Cameron stay fit the top 8 is a certainty.
.

In fairness this is an entirely new and unrelated injury.

 

[Partridge]

No no, not nearly negative enough.

Haven't you heard that Patrick Dangerfield is old?

To their credit there are some in the media with their heads screwed on

That's because he is.

It isn't that we have old players, it's the entire core of the team that will be playing seniors every week. They'll be two years older than in 2022.

You can pretend it doesn't matter, and with the home games there's no need to worry about bottom 4, but to me we can't just assume every player who had a down 2023 (and there were a lot of them) is going to magically recapture form. It wasn't all due to injury. Somewhere in the lower eight/just outside seems about right. There are going to be injuries, just depends who gets them.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

You can pretend it doesn't matter,

Thanks I will

 

[Partridge]

Thanks I will

Fair enough. Didn't matter last year I guess.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Fair enough. Didn't matter last year I guess.

Yeah look I'm just reasonably confident that reversion to the mean on our injuries alone is enough to make us better than last year. Top 8? Definitely possible. Top 4? Probably a bridge too far.

 

[catempire]

Not pessimistic about us this year, but don't pretend we are that similar to 22. Top 4 to bottom 4 is a definite reality.

I view us as starting very much as 2022. How we evolve from here is very much a function of the progress of and the evolution of Holmes, Clark, Dempsey, Neale and others.

 

[Mr Meow]

Yeah look I'm just reasonably confident that reversion to the mean on our injuries alone is enough to make us better than last year. Top 8? Definitely possible. Top 4? Probably a bridge too far.

Top 4 and Party would go on another long hiatus I'd say. Bottom 4 and the crowing will be loud and clear.

 

[Gavin Excell]

On the brightside, at least we know it's bad. The worst ones are what Guthrie had last year.

Supposedly 'managed' and then was never seen again.

While 8-10 weeks is a bitter pill, I'd prefer that over 1-2 weeks that inevitably turns into 10-12.

This article seems to suggest only missing first couple of rounds

Cats midfielder unlikely for round one; Harley Reid quiet in first West Coast outing

The Cats were looking forward to having underrated midfielder Cam Guthrie back on the field in 2024, but he’s in doubt for round one, while Harley Reid’s maiden outing for West Coast did not live up to the hype.

www.watoday.com.au

 

[Kobe Gryant]

That's because he is.

It isn't that we have old players, it's the entire core of the team that will be playing seniors every week. They'll be two years older than in 2022.

You can pretend it doesn't matter, and with the home games there's no need to worry about bottom 4, but to me we can't just assume every player who had a down 2023 (and there were a lot of them) is going to magically recapture form. It wasn't all due to injury. Somewhere in the lower eight/just outside seems about right. There are going to be injuries, just depends who gets them.

Who's the core you're talking about though?

Dangerfield was injured for a huge portion of 2022, and average at best in a lot of the games he did play.

Before that 2 month break in the middle of the year, he went 5 weeks without accumulating 20 touches.

He was elite when it mattered most in September, but we finished 3 games clear on top without a huge contribution from him.

Hawkins was elite, but a weird case study as he seems to be getting better as he gets older.

Cameron & Stewart where elite, and should be expected to remain that way, or close to it.

As it stands, you've got a point with Guthrie. Doesn't look like his form when fit will be much different, but staying fit appears to be the hard part.

You don't rate Blicavs, so we'll just leave him out, and then you've got Stengle.

That's the true core of the 2022 premiership team, evidenced by 5 AA.

The rest where/are bit part players these days (Touhy, Duncan, Stanley) or kids/role players/players in their prime (SDK, Zuthrie, Atkins, JHenry, Holmes etc)

******************

The truth is, we don't really have a core anymore, and we didn't in 2022 either.

It's what happens when your list is both really old, and really young at the same time.

We're mainly reliant on stardom from Stewart, Cameron, and one of Guthrie or Dangerfield, and it trickles down from there.

It's a very different setup to what we're used to, particularly for many of the Scott years.

Take 2017 for instance. It's Dangerfield, Selwood, Hawkins, Duncan, Taylor, a young Stewart, and a whole lot of VFL standard footballers padding out our bottom 6-10.

If even a couple of those guys don't fire, you're in big trouble, and we saw that more than enough in finals of that era.

It's why 2022 was so different. It was more system based, and required a couple of elite performers, but mainly an even spread throughout.

We rarely had players getting 30+ possessions, and when forwards did kick big totals, it was usually 3-5 forwards all getting amongst it, rather than solitary Hawkins 4 goals we became so used to.

 

[Vdubs]

Who's the core you're talking about though?

Dangerfield was injured for a huge portion of 2022, and average at best in a lot of the games he did play.

Before that 2 month break in the middle of the year, he went 5 weeks without accumulating 20 touches.

He was elite when it mattered most in September, but we finished 3 games clear on top without a huge contribution from him.

Hawkins was elite, but a weird case study as he seems to be getting better as he gets older.

Cameron & Stewart where elite, and should be expected to remain that way, or close to it.

As it stands, you've got a point with Guthrie. Doesn't look like his form when fit will be much different, but staying fit appears to be the hard part.

You don't rate Blicavs, so we'll just leave him out, and then you've got Stengle.

That's the true core of the 2022 premiership team, evidenced by 5 AA.

The rest where/are bit part players these days (Touhy, Duncan, Stanley) or kids/role players/players in their prime (SDK, Zuthrie, Atkins, JHenry, Holmes etc)

******************

The truth is, we don't really have a core anymore, and we didn't in 2022 either.

It's what happens when your list is both really old, and really young at the same time.

We're mainly reliant on stardom from Stewart, Cameron, and one of Guthrie or Dangerfield, and it trickles down from there.

It's a very different setup to what we're used to, particularly for many of the Scott years.

Take 2017 for instance. It's Dangerfield, Selwood, Hawkins, Duncan, Taylor, a young Stewart, and a whole lot of VFL standard footballers padding out our bottom 6-10.

If even a couple of those guys don't fire, you're in big trouble, and we saw that more than enough in finals of that era.

It's why 2022 was so different. It was more system based, and required a couple of elite performers, but mainly an even spread throughout.

We rarely had players getting 30+ possessions, and when forwards did kick big totals, it was usually 3-5 forwards all getting amongst it, rather than solitary Hawkins 4 goals we became so used to.

Our best players in the 22 GF were pretty well Danger, Smith, Selwood, Stengle, Close, Blicavs, Hawkins and Duncan- 2 have gone, 2 are relatively young, and the other 4 are at an average age of over 33. Stewart and JC did have relatively average games for their standard.
We have to hope that that we will not need to rely on big seasons an multiple big games from those older players and that we do have the quality in depth coming through. We have depth. The quality is the big ?

 

[Partridge]

Yeah look I'm just reasonably confident that reversion to the mean on our injuries alone is enough to make us better than last year. Top 8? Definitely possible. Top 4? Probably a bridge too far.

Yeah I'm thinking literally anywhere between 6th-12th. Perhaps higher if absolutely everything goes right (and I just don't see that many veterans all rolling back the clock), and maybe lower if the bottom really falls out.

The only thing to me that could cause a real collapse is not the away/neutral game results so much as a total loss of home form (even last year, we still went 7-3 at home), which I just don't see happening.

 

[MisterMarcus]

I am more interested in the list strategy and turnover than the actual outcome in 2024, tbh.

Finishing (say) 14th but with the Starting 22 transition in full effect, is probably better than finishing 8th with all the old blokes still playing, IMHO.

 

[Partridge]

Top 4 and Party would go on another long hiatus I'd say. Bottom 4 and the crowing will be loud and clear.

Or alternatively, neither.

 

[Mr Meow]

Or alternatively, neither.

Hope so! It was good to have you back last year

 

[Walter H White]

Agree totally with you

Before he coached Collingwood - i thought he was an outstanding media critic/commentator - and he had his stint coaching - and he was a Cigarette paper away from a Collingwood Premiership in 2018

And as we all know - and i think it is quite unfair - but your judged on Premierships or nothing

Geel got the Swans in 22 , you know a flag is a flag and you still get heaps of joy from it , but in 89 Geel lost by 6 pts to Haw , their goal to goal line was Langford Mew Tuck Brereton Dunstall - fell only 6pts short of them , but the Cats get no credit at all because they simply lost

When i post i try to be fair , but i still think Buckley is a very good commentator and i would listen to what he said , no sugar coating rubbish

Contrast that to Ling Harley and Bartel , has there been 3 more underwhelming commentators than those 3 , i wouldnt hang on one single word those 3 said as commentators

Harsh on Jimmy. Think he's pretty solid on Footy Classified.

Admittedly, I am biased as he was my favourite Cat (aside from Joel) and I have a lot of love for that beautiful man.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Harsh on Jimmy. Think he's pretty solid on Footy Classified.

Admittedly, I am biased as he was my favourite Cat (aside from Joel) and I have a lot of love for that beautiful man.

Agreed, and I think his commentary stint was underrated too.

I get that Jimmy's a shy, softly spoken type which probably doesn't suit the commentary booth, but if you actually listen to what he's saying when analysing play, he rarely gets it wrong. Very good footy brain.

Ling & Harley I can get. They've both been terrified of being pro-Cats, and eventually, just terrified of upsetting anybody.

It lead to generic, fence-sitting comments which I can understood upset many.

Both great people, and I actually don't mind their efforts, but I can understand why some want more of the 'big call' expert comments than just playing it safe and polite.

Jobe Watson is now seemingly struggling with the same thing, partnered with the fact that it sounds like English is his second language.

 

[Partridge]

Hope so! It was good to have you back last year

You're not a very good liar.

 

[CHAWKTS]

I am hearing 8-10 weeks unfortunately

I usually like be right! But not this time.

I hope in that time period they are planning what they did with danger in 2022. No rush back. Take extra weeks to do a mini preseason after he is healed.

We do not want to risk further soft tissues of him coming back too soon. Let’s bring him back fully fit with strength back in all parts of the leg!

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I usually like be right! But not this time.

I hope in that time period they are planning what they did with danger in 2022. No rush back. Take extra weeks to do a mini preseason after he is healed.

We do not want to risk further soft tissues of him coming back too soon. Let’s bring him back fully fit with strength back in all parts of the leg!

Preseason is what cooked his quad to begin with! Throw him in cold this time!


... post was not serious

 

[Baudolino]

I don't care how Geelong fare in 2024. My only wish for this year is for Partridge and Mr. Meow to become the bestest of friends.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I don't care how Geelong fare in 2024. My only wish for this year is for Partridge and Mr. Meow to become the bestest of friends.

Heart warming stuff! You love to see it

 

[Mr Meow]

I don't care how Geelong fare in 2024. My only wish for this year is for Partridge and Mr. Meow to become the bestest of friends.

I like the guy! But I won't force a friendship if it's not reciprocated.

 

[Cataholic]

Lol, it was a quad mate, and he walked off the field - so I'd be surprised if he's not back by Round 3-6. 3 months is nuts.

Vdubs has once again proven himself to be quite knowledgeable in such matters. He wasn't far off.

 

[dazbroncos]

Vdubs has once again proven himself to be quite knowledgeable in such matters. He wasn't far off.

Sage that one.

Go Catters