Prediction How will the Geelong Cats fare in season 2024?

[Cataholic]

Hope this helps. Of course, this is general; nobody knows what exact injury Cam has.

It's important to differentiate between a muscle tear(strain)and a central tendon tear, which has implications for hamstrings, quads and calves for starters.

• Injuries involving the quadriceps or hamstring intramuscular tendon have prolonged rehabilitation and return to play times—they must be treated differently to ‘muscle strains’.
• Differentiation of these intramuscular tendon injuries seems particularly important in injuries to the biceps femoris and rectus femoris muscles.
• If injury to these tendons is suspected, MRI is indicated for accurate diagnosis
• There may be a role for surgical repair of the tendon in injuries with significant damage of the intramuscular tendon
• Improved recognition of injury of the intramuscular tendon may allow more accurate prediction of time to return to sport and thus, reduce risk of recurrence.
• The role of surgical repair versus conservative management in some of these injuries is not clear. The options need to be weighed carefully and discussed appropriately (shared decision-making) until more data provide a basis for clear recommendations.

Classification of Quadriceps Strains​

Below provided is an outline of a clinical grading system for muscle strains. Factoring in pain, loss of strength, and physical exam findings in a grading system helps provide guidance for treatment, rehabilitation, and eventual return to play.

1. Grade I (mild) strains affect only a limited number of fibers in the muscle. There is no decrease in strength and there is a fully active and passive range of motion. Pain and tenderness are often delayed to the next day.
2. Grade II (moderate) strains have nearly half of muscle fibers torn. Acute and significant pain is accompanied by swelling and a minor decrease in muscle strength.
3. Grade III (severe) strains represent the complete rupture of the muscle. This means either the tendon is separated from the muscle belly or the muscle belly is actually torn in 2 parts. Severe swelling and pain and a complete loss of function are characteristic of this type of strain

Muscle injuries also be broadly classified as either acute or chronic injuries.

1. Acute injuries: are usually the result of a single traumatic event and cause a macro-trauma to the muscle. There is an obvious link between the cause and noticeable symptoms.They mostly occur in contact sports such as rugby, soccer and basketball because of their dynamic and high collision nature.
2. Overusechronic or exercise-induced injuries)are subtler and usually occur over a longer period of time.They result from repetitive micro-trauma to the muscle. Diagnosing is more challenging since there is a less obvious link between the cause of the injury and the symptoms.

Grades of quadriceps strain​

1. Grade 1 symptoms: Symptoms of a grade 1 quadriceps strain are not always serious enough to stop training at the time of injury. A twinge may be felt in the thigh and a general feeling of tightness.The athlete may feel mild discomfort on walking and running might be difficult.There is unlikely to be swelling. A lump or area of spasm at the site of injury may be felt.
2. Grade 2 symptoms: The athlete may feel a sudden sharp pain when running, jumping or kicking and be unable to play on.Pain will make walking difficult and swelling or mild bruising may be noticed.The pain would be felt when pressing in on the suspected location of the quad muscle tear.Straightening the knee against resistance is likely to cause pain and the injured athlete will be unable to fully bend the knee.
3. Grade 3 symptoms: Symptoms consist of a severe,sudden pain in the front of the thigh.The patient will be unable to walk without the aid of crutches.Bad swelling will appear immediately and significant bruising within 24 hours.A static muscle contraction will be painful and is likely to produce a bulge in the muscle.The player can expect to be out of competition for 6 to 12 weeks.

Thanks Vdubs.

A concise explanation that we can all understand.

Thanks for taking the time mate.

 

[dazbroncos]

Hope this helps. Of course, this is general; nobody knows what exact injury Cam has.

It's important to differentiate between a muscle tear(strain)and a central tendon tear, which has implications for hamstrings, quads and calves for starters.

• Injuries involving the quadriceps or hamstring intramuscular tendon have prolonged rehabilitation and return to play times—they must be treated differently to ‘muscle strains’.
• Differentiation of these intramuscular tendon injuries seems particularly important in injuries to the biceps femoris and rectus femoris muscles.
• If injury to these tendons is suspected, MRI is indicated for accurate diagnosis
• There may be a role for surgical repair of the tendon in injuries with significant damage of the intramuscular tendon
• Improved recognition of injury of the intramuscular tendon may allow more accurate prediction of time to return to sport and thus, reduce risk of recurrence.
• The role of surgical repair versus conservative management in some of these injuries is not clear. The options need to be weighed carefully and discussed appropriately (shared decision-making) until more data provide a basis for clear recommendations.

Classification of Quadriceps Strains​

Below provided is an outline of a clinical grading system for muscle strains. Factoring in pain, loss of strength, and physical exam findings in a grading system helps provide guidance for treatment, rehabilitation, and eventual return to play.

1. Grade I (mild) strains affect only a limited number of fibers in the muscle. There is no decrease in strength and there is a fully active and passive range of motion. Pain and tenderness are often delayed to the next day.
2. Grade II (moderate) strains have nearly half of muscle fibers torn. Acute and significant pain is accompanied by swelling and a minor decrease in muscle strength.
3. Grade III (severe) strains represent the complete rupture of the muscle. This means either the tendon is separated from the muscle belly or the muscle belly is actually torn in 2 parts. Severe swelling and pain and a complete loss of function are characteristic of this type of strain

Muscle injuries also be broadly classified as either acute or chronic injuries.

1. Acute injuries: are usually the result of a single traumatic event and cause a macro-trauma to the muscle. There is an obvious link between the cause and noticeable symptoms.They mostly occur in contact sports such as rugby, soccer and basketball because of their dynamic and high collision nature.
2. Overusechronic or exercise-induced injuries)are subtler and usually occur over a longer period of time.They result from repetitive micro-trauma to the muscle. Diagnosing is more challenging since there is a less obvious link between the cause of the injury and the symptoms.

Grades of quadriceps strain​

1. Grade 1 symptoms: Symptoms of a grade 1 quadriceps strain are not always serious enough to stop training at the time of injury. A twinge may be felt in the thigh and a general feeling of tightness.The athlete may feel mild discomfort on walking and running might be difficult.There is unlikely to be swelling. A lump or area of spasm at the site of injury may be felt.
2. Grade 2 symptoms: The athlete may feel a sudden sharp pain when running, jumping or kicking and be unable to play on.Pain will make walking difficult and swelling or mild bruising may be noticed.The pain would be felt when pressing in on the suspected location of the quad muscle tear.Straightening the knee against resistance is likely to cause pain and the injured athlete will be unable to fully bend the knee.
3. Grade 3 symptoms: Symptoms consist of a severe,sudden pain in the front of the thigh.The patient will be unable to walk without the aid of crutches.Bad swelling will appear immediately and significant bruising within 24 hours.A static muscle contraction will be painful and is likely to produce a bulge in the muscle.The player can expect to be out of competition for 6 to 12 weeks.

And thus why it’s hard to nail down exact timeframes… variables abound

Go Catters

 

[Cataholic]

And thus why it’s hard to nail down exact timeframes… variables abound

Go Catters

They do.....but it isn't that hard for them to start off by saying a minimum 6 weeks, then provide a rolling update each week as more info comes to hand re: progress.....

I'm glad the AFL has called the club out on this one.

 

[catsfootyfan89]

Christ almighty - the injury gods haven't been kind to us since the Premiership have they?

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Christ almighty - the injury gods haven't been kind to us since the Premiership have they?

The gods do you one favour then karma shuts you down forever

 

[Scottland2007]

So, I noticed when we played Bruhn, Holmes, Clark and Bowes in the midfield, we started to get on top of Essendon. We have a good forward line and a good backline. I think if Chris Scott

Chris Scott

Age

47

Ht

182cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.6

4star

K

11.2

4star

HB

5.4

4star

M

5.1

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.4

3star

No current season stats available

D

13.2

4star

K

10.2

4star

HB

3.0

3star

M

2.2

3star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.4

3star

can balance youth with experience in the midfield, we’ll go a long way. It all depends if he has the guts to make a few hard calls.

 

[foxdog50]

Can we do a poll? Eg
1 Premiers
2 Finish top
3 2-4
4 5-8
5 9-12
Etc etc

 

[year of the cat]

Very surprised at the pessimism here. An even run with injuries and we make the 8 in a canter. This team is not that different to the one that won a flag 18 months ago but was cruelled by injuries last year.

The senior players are another year older. As we’ve seen with C.Guthrie the risk of injury is now far higher. Can Dsnger, Hawkins, Stanley, Stewart and Cameron have injury free seasons? If they do we make the 8 I think. If not, which is more likely, then I see us finishing in a similar position to last season.

For me, I’m more focused on hoping to see development of the likes of Holmes, Clark, Bruhn, Dempsey etc. If we happen to make finals it’s an absolute bonus.

 

[catempire]

The senior players are another year older. As we’ve seen with C.Guthrie the risk of injury is now far higher. Can Dsnger, Hawkins, Stanley, Stewart and Cameron have injury free seasons? If they do we make the 8 I think. If not, which is more likely, then I see us finishing in a similar position to last season.

For me, I’m more focused on hoping to see development of the likes of Holmes, Clark, Bruhn, Dempsey etc. If we happen to make finals it’s an absolute bonus.

Damn, that’s just unfair that only the senior players got a year older!

 

[year of the cat]

Damn, that’s just unfair that only the senior players got a year older!

Senior supporters do too

 

[Gazza Greatness]

Can we do a poll? Eg
1 Premiers
2 Finish top
3 2-4
4 5-8
5 9-12
Etc etc

Like idea foxdog: but only issue is our injury run, great run 1 to 4, OK run 4 to 8, bad run as per last year 8 to 14.

Reason being is the players age groups which are mainly older and younger players but not much in between, therefore experience with older players is paramount while younger players are still developing, however the quicker the younger players come on the better, which was really our downfall last year with our truck-load of injuries because with the large group of very promising younger players, many were far from AFL ready but regardless in time that will change. It's very much a catch 22 at present which leaves us vulnerable with too many injuries but to some extent that can be said about any club, we're just a little more exposed and vulnerable if we have a depleted run with injuries because of our age demographic but thankfully quiet a few of the younger players appear now through excellent early preseason form to be coming on but we'll have a lot better indication of how much the younger players have progressed once we get into a few AFL games for the 2024 season. GO CATS

So perhaps if considered we go with poll as per below -

Injuries....................Great (as per 2022)......OK..................Bad (as per 2023)

1 Premiers................yes.............................maybe............no
2 Finish top...............yes.............................no.................no
3 2-4........................yes............................possible..........no
4 5-8........................possible......................likely..............unlikely
5 9-14......................no..............................unlikely..........more than likely

 

[Romeoh1]

Top 4.

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

A similar season to 2019.
Start really well and fade late.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

A similar season to 2019.
Start really well and fade late.

Can't see us starting with dominance sans Guthrie and tinkering with a new gameplan.

We've learned our lesson from 2019, I really don't think we'll start a season like that under Scott again. We're way more conservative with our rotations of the team and squad as a whole and have been ever since.

2020 & 2022 are more likely for mine if we're having a top 4 year. Look just okay until the bye and then really turn it on after that.

 

[cats_09]

If anyone would like to discuss the previously posted season preview, they're welcome to take discussion to this thread:

AFL Season Previews

G'day Cats fans – Crows fan coming in peace. Apologies for the self-promotion, but I thought you might be interested in reading the preview of your season ahead I've just written: 2024 AFL Season Previews: Geelong As I'm sure you'll be aware, there was lots of schadenfreude and relief that...

www.bigfooty.com

For those wondering, BF rules do restrict the posting of links to personal websites, videos etc - there is a "Podcasts, Blogs & Videos" section on the main board for those interested in checking out what others are up to

 

[Sizzlepack]

If anyone would like to discuss the previously posted season preview, they're welcome to take discussion to this thread:

AFL Season Previews

G'day Cats fans – Crows fan coming in peace. Apologies for the self-promotion, but I thought you might be interested in reading the preview of your season ahead I've just written: 2024 AFL Season Previews: Geelong As I'm sure you'll be aware, there was lots of schadenfreude and relief that...

www.bigfooty.com

For those wondering, BF rules do restrict the posting of links to personal websites, videos etc - there is a "Podcasts, Blogs & Videos" section on the main board for those interested in checking out what others are up to

Apologies, wasn't aware of the rule.

 

[Mr Meow]

Or alternatively, neither.

Come back!

 

[Vdubs]

9-12, again, although we are starting a lot better than that. This week will tell us a lot about both teams. Neutral venue. Can we do it without Guth and Danger? I suspect this question is going to be asked for a bit of this season. Again. A win tomorrow, and I will add us top 8 in the poll.

 

[GuyIncognito]

Despite my natural cynicism, how can I doubt C. Scott? I am thinking flag.

 

[cats_09]

9-12, again, although we are starting a lot better than that. This week will tell us a lot about both teams. Neutral venue. Can we do it without Guth and Danger? I suspect this question is going to be asked for a bit of this season. Again. A win tomorrow, and I will add us top 8 in the poll.

If you're currently rating us only in the 9-12 area, are you genuinely thinking we're going to go to at less than 50% for the remainder & we'll will win less than 10 further games?


And at the same time you're rating Port as a top 4 team when we're both currently sitting on 3 wins each, where Port has already played 3 games at home and lost one of them?


I know which of the two teams has looked more impressive in their approach, and it's the one who's on the road for the third week in a row

 

[CatToTheFuture]

If you're currently rating us only in the 9-12 area, are you genuinely thinking we're going to go to at less than 50% for the remainder & we'll will win less than 10 further games?


And at the same time you're rating Port as a top 4 team when we're both currently sitting on 3 wins each, where Port has already played 3 games at home and lost one of them?


I know which of the two teams has looked more impressive in their approach, and it's the one who's on the road for the third week in a row

To support Vdubs a bit two wins against bottom 4 sides isn't out of this world and a scratchy win against the Saints who have only won one themselves is not much to write home about.

But also, we have 5 more games against bottom 4 sides to come. If you bank those it's 8 wins at likely good %. That plus 2 more wins gets you to 12th last year provided your losses are close so add a game against Essendon and a game against Richmond at GMHBA. So the floor is made of games we're $1.10 in.

With the likely good % we have it'll take 2 more wins to scrape the 8 from there. I'll flag that we play the dogs and Port at GMHBA, and while those teams have their strengths they are both inconsistent against teams that present them a challenge and they have bad histories at GMHBA. So I'll say those are likely to go our way and that places us 9th at worst.

One more win from there and we're 5th to 8th. Collingwood isn't travelling great and we've had a decent record against them. Lions at the gabba a challenge but again they're not travelling great. Suns in Darwin would be difficult based on location. Carlton will be scheduled to implode again, and while they've been winning they've hardly been convincing so we're a shot at winning one of two. Freo has been winning games but they made the crows look like hard work. Dees, Giants, Sydney a challenge.

The win that gets us from 8th-9th to 5th-8th will be hard but we have 9 opportunities to get it. Win today and I'd say our floor is 8th.

 

[Lana]

I see that I didn't post anything. I had no hopes going into the season, but I like where things are going. a win tonight would be huge. But I don't think I'll be a believer until we play someone good. It is an odd season. Feels very even, between the style of play and the gaps of quality in many teams, seems like another year where someone could steal it.

 

[Mr Meow]

To support Vdubs a bit two wins against bottom 4 sides isn't out of this world and a scratchy win against the Saints who have only won one themselves is not much to write home about.

But also, we have 5 more games against bottom 4 sides to come. If you bank those it's 8 wins at likely good %. That plus 2 more wins gets you to 12th last year provided your losses are close so add a game against Essendon and a game against Richmond at GMHBA. So the floor is made of games we're $1.10 in.

With the likely good % we have it'll take 2 more wins to scrape the 8 from there. I'll flag that we play the dogs and Port at GMHBA, and while those teams have their strengths they are both inconsistent against teams that present them a challenge and they have bad histories at GMHBA. So I'll say those are likely to go our way and that places us 9th at worst.

One more win from there and we're 5th to 8th. Collingwood isn't travelling great and we've had a decent record against them. Lions at the gabba a challenge but again they're not travelling great. Suns in Darwin would be difficult based on location. Carlton will be scheduled to implode again, and while they've been winning they've hardly been convincing so we're a shot at winning one of two. Freo has been winning games but they made the crows look like hard work. Dees, Giants, Sydney a challenge.

The win that gets us from 8th-9th to 5th-8th will be hard but we have 9 opportunities to get it. Win today and I'd say our floor is 8th.

If we win tonight then we'll only need 8 wins from our last 18 games to play finals. As we play NM at home a week later. And we'll still have 7 games at GMHBA to come. Our record in Melbourne is quite solid.

To go out on a limb...win tonight and we will be top 4 challengers (needing 11 or 12 wins from our last 18 games) that will have rounds 6-10 to prove that's our level. Lose and we're obviously back in the pack a bit.

 

[Vdubs]

If you're currently rating us only in the 9-12 area, are you genuinely thinking we're going to go to at less than 50% for the remainder & we'll will win less than 10 further games?


And at the same time you're rating Port as a top 4 team when we're both currently sitting on 3 wins each, where Port has already played 3 games at home and lost one of them?


I know which of the two teams has looked more impressive in their approach, and it's the one who's on the road for the third week in a row

That 9-12 was a post preseason, not sent, amended yesterday on looking at this thread. So a win today, and as mentioned, I will add us to the top 8 on the poll, fwiw. As I always say, my assessment of us has no bearing on how other supporters or the team itself fare.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

To support Vdubs a bit two wins against bottom 4 sides isn't out of this world and a scratchy win against the Saints who have only won one themselves is not much to write home about.

But also, we have 5 more games against bottom 4 sides to come. If you bank those it's 8 wins at likely good %. That plus 2 more wins gets you to 12th last year provided your losses are close so add a game against Essendon and a game against Richmond at GMHBA. So the floor is made of games we're $1.10 in.

With the likely good % we have it'll take 2 more wins to scrape the 8 from there. I'll flag that we play the dogs and Port at GMHBA, and while those teams have their strengths they are both inconsistent against teams that present them a challenge and they have bad histories at GMHBA. So I'll say those are likely to go our way and that places us 9th at worst.

One more win from there and we're 5th to 8th. Collingwood isn't travelling great and we've had a decent record against them. Lions at the gabba a challenge but again they're not travelling great. Suns in Darwin would be difficult based on location. Carlton will be scheduled to implode again, and while they've been winning they've hardly been convincing so we're a shot at winning one of two. Freo has been winning games but they made the crows look like hard work. Dees, Giants, Sydney a challenge.

The win that gets us from 8th-9th to 5th-8th will be hard but we have 9 opportunities to get it. Win today and I'd say our floor is 8th.

I agree with all that. If we do what we should do at gmhba we should be 6th-8th.

Im not convinced yet that our form will be good enough for top 4 but it probably only takes 2 or 3 extra close wins to get us there.

I dont rate port or freo or carlton as flag sides and i think sydney will run out of puff eventually.
Outside of melbourne and gws its a very weak top end so if we can get top 4 we are a real chance.