Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2012 Mock Draft

[Knightmare]

Just curious KM, what's your reasoning behind switching out the key forward we desperately need and swapping in an inside mid of which we have more than sufficient depth? And then adding insult to injury (no offense to Marco!) by slotting him in with our 2nd?

Not having a yarn at you or anything as I think this is the most frustratingly realistic scenario that will happen for us, as shown time and time again in the past.
- I'm just curious to get your take on Freo's drafting in your update.

I agree that KPPs are the key need for Fremantle, and key forwards most specifically but I don't see Shaw specifically going so high. The recent talk is that he is more of a 2nd rounder so likely he features more in the 20s but it will be interesting to hear more news on where he might feature over coming weeks.

The other factor with Fremantle is that I see a relatively short window. Pavlich, Sandilands and McPharlin I can't imagine have all that many more healthy + good years and with KPPs generally taking longer to develop I think it's entirely realistic that Fremantle go for the more immediate player - perhaps a strong bodied mid first (which with Ross Lyon being all about the now) could well be the approach taken even if long term it's less than ideal with few young quality KPPs on the list.

On the midfield I don't see that same strength. Fyfe is a star of the competition already then Barlow, Mundy and Pearce are productive through the midfield but I think there is still some grunt missing to really compete with that very top end (Sydney and Hawthorn) which is where I have Lonergan coming in who is an excellent, immediate big bodied inside ball winner and distributor who can take some pressure off Fyfe which isn't so bad.

But it could really go either way and will largely as with any club depend on who is available at that selection.

 

[Knightmare]

Wow, that is a huge jump for Sam Colquhoun! Have you gotten some mail that he is going to go higher than expected?

Interesting to see that his DOB is right at the end of the year, which makes him almost a year younger than some of those other "bottom-agers", so he could have a fair bit of improvement in him. May not play much senior footy for a while though.

I have heard some news of late that he will go top 20 and likely higher.

Post champs I had Colquhoun in this similar range to where I have him now but then I heard some queries about his 1v1 game and ability defensively and dropped down my ratings some.

His production this season has been fantastic - footskills and decision making are supurb and has had a strong second half to the season which in addition to his strong u18 champs suggests that he goes 1st round on draft day with that proven production clubs look for.

With Scotland in his 30s now Colquhoun might just be a good fit for Carlton's situation as the future replacement. With his footskills next to Yarran's pace on another back flank he has the potential to cause teams some headaches and this I can see appealing to Carlton.

Hey Knightmare I found a mistake at pick 25 you got Alex Boston thats the wrong name it's Andrew Boston.

Well picked up. I was just checking if there were any QLD footy watchers on here.

The heights and weights seem out of date, but I suppose there's no other record for you to use. Hogan is now 195cm/97kg and I've read where Wines is 188cm and Macrae 189cm.

Not a big issue I suppose and not easily remedied without an up to date source.

I was just going by the measurements listed from the afl.com draft combine invitees - I assumed being recently posted that they would be fairly up to date. You could well be right as many of these measurements where mid season measurements.

Is there another source with the full - up to date correct listings? Happy to update these again if one can be found.

 

[DeeWong6996]

Knightmare

Spencer White is a friend of mine and I want to see what your opinion is of him. And the odds of him getting drafted. Love your work buddy!

 

[aussierulesrules]

Spencer White is a friend of mine and I want to see what your opinion is of him. And the odds of him getting drafted.

Was his asthma as bad as was reported?

I have heard some news of late that he will go top 20 and likely higher.

Post champs I had Colquhoun in this similar range to where I have him now but then I heard some queries about his 1v1 game and ability defensively and dropped down my ratings some.

His production this season has been fantastic - footskills and decision making are superb and has had a strong second half to the season which in addition to his strong u18 champs suggests that he goes 1st round on draft day with that proven production clubs look for.

With Scotland in his 30s now Colquhoun might just be a good fit for Carlton's situation as the future replacement. With his footskills next to Yarran's pace on another back flank he has the potential to cause teams some headaches and this I can see appealing to Carlton.

No worries. Sounds good and that most teams could do with someone like him, us certainly included. Might be a bit of a luxury for someone other than GWS to take him that high, if he mainly plays down back, though, wouldn't it, especially with plenty of other serious talent likely to be available around that pick? Will be interesting to see where he ends up.

I'm guessing you'd be pretty happy with 3 picks around 20 in the draft? You guys have done brilliantly this trade/free agency period, I reckon. Just glad those Hickey rumours were apparently off the mark, as we could certainly do with him, IMO.

 

[THE_GUN]

Knightmare

Spencer White is a friend of mine and I want to see what your opinion is of him. And the odds of him getting drafted. Love your work buddy!

Who does he support ? ................. Tigers pick#43 would be a good range for White'y

 

[manny100]

Hi KM, is O'Rourke a likely round 1 starter or do you think he may take some time to develop into an AFL regular?

 

[aussierulesrules]

If White's reported asthma/lung capacity problems had been discovered earlier and he'd played all year like he reportedly did in the 2nd half of the season, how high do you reckon he would have been drafted?

 

[DeeWong6996]

Spencer has had asthma problems for most of his life. He is managing it way better now, and this is reflected in his games for Western Jets.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare

Spencer White is a friend of mine and I want to see what your opinion is of him. And the odds of him getting drafted. Love your work buddy!

I think the Lance Franklin comparisons were a little over the top with White but I certainly expect with his strong season that he will be in the mix from around the 3rd round with some viewing him as a possible 2nd rounder.

Has a solid chance without being a lock.

I'm guessing you'd be pretty happy with 3 picks around 20 in the draft? You guys have done brilliantly this trade/free agency period, I reckon. Just glad those Hickey rumours were apparently off the mark, as we could certainly do with him, IMO.

3 selections in the 1st round is a solid outcome for Collingwood and with the players lost offset by the players added I don't mind the moves.

Geelong and GWS are the other clear free agent + trade week winners and along with Collingwood I can imagine would all be walking away pretty pleased with how everything worked out.

I don't see the need for Collingwood to add Tom Hickey and frankly would be disappointed if we targetted him - regardless of cost. Ceglar is the same age and much the same thing then Witts and Gault are also in that same age group as developing ruckmen and as a team who has in the past struggled to develop our own ruckmen I'm not keen to take more VFL minutes away from our current developing group with another guy coming in who is still developing.

Hi KM, is O'Rourke a likely round 1 starter or do you think he may take some time to develop into an AFL regular?

I'm not so sure O'Rourke is a round 1 starter, but someone who can work his way into the team in season 1 certainly and play 10-15 games if things work out. Adds plenty of pace and footskills to a midfield needing more of both so I suggest if he can put together 2-3 solid VFL performances he would be in the side reasonably quickly.

 

[DeeWong6996]

Knightmare

Thank you so much.

Could you tell me a bit about Viney, Barry and Hogan?

I feel we got absolutely raped in the mini draft pick deal..

 

[aussierulesrules]

Yeah, it looks like Geelong have come away from this period with a better 22 than they went into it with, for sure and GWS, well, they have done very nicely for themselves. Will be interesting to see if they part with any of their 1st round picks in the next week though. By the sounds of it they've been shopping some of them around, as we have our pick 13.

Still plenty to come though, hopefully. A week is a long time in football!

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare

Thank you so much.

Could you tell me a bit about Viney, Barry and Hogan?

I feel we got absolutely raped in the mini draft pick deal..

Viney is a hard inside midfielder. Attacks the ball like a Selwood and has that same Hodge type agro. Wins his own ball, can break away from packs but it's more the inside grunt that he provides that stands out most and it's his real intensity and on field leadership that make him stand out.

Barry is a speedster who can really break the lines but also run all day. Has a real slipperyness to him. Tested incredibly well at the draft combine but may take some time to establish himself as a regular.

Hogan is a big, man of a key forward. Has a real presence to him and is a strong contested marking target in the forward half. Has some Jonathan Brown and is a player to really get excited about in a couple of years time.
Melbourne payed more than I expected but none the less I see Hogan working out spectacularly so at the end of the day while the amount payed was very large it could still work out very well with Hogan looking like a potentially dominant key forward - which is worth it's weight in gold.

 

[Knightmare]

Yeah, it looks like Geelong have come away from this period with a better 22 than they went into it with, for sure and GWS, well, they have done very nicely for themselves. Will be interesting to see if they part with any of their 1st round picks in the next week though. By the sounds of it they've been shopping some of them around, as we have our pick 13.

Still plenty to come though, hopefully. A week is a long time in football!

With GWS I get the strong feeling it is a bluf. Make the AFL think they are looking at getting better now without being sincere about it in any way.

It would take a young franchise player for GWS to move any of those early draft selections and I expect the other 17 clubs know it.

 

[THE_GUN]

With GWS I get the strong feeling it is a bluf. Make the AFL think they are looking at getting better now without being sincere about it in any way.

It would take a young franchise player for GWS to move any of those early draft selections and I expect the other 17 clubs know it.

exactly right there mate , Its just a bluff to see what rattles out and who the clubs might be prepared to let go and at the same time be seen to be making an attempt to satisfy the afl on the reason some of the concessions were given.

Unless its a untouchable player GWS wont be giving up any of these picks and they know that as well.

Cant wait in 3 years time when every single club will be targeting their young stars with lucrative deals as they have done with scully,Davis,Ward etc .

There is no chance they will be able to keep this amount of talent on their list, In 2 years time their entire list will be 1st round selections - unbelievable

 

[LemmingMaster]

I still have a feeling that GWS not nominating for Viney with their first two picks was part of the Hogan deal. Would make the Melbourne deal a little more easier to understand.

 

[JB12]

Hey Knightmare, if you had to pick Nick Graham or Sam Colquhoun, who would it be?

 

[JasRulz63]

Mayes, Shaw, Smith, Bourke, Morrison. Excellent draft from a Lions perspective, quality HFF/midfielder and some KPP talent. Would love Shaw at 24.

 

[manny100]

Hi KM, strategically it would be far better for the MFC to go for an O'Rourke who has exceptional pace that as an inside receiver can burst away from congestion areas -invaluable. MFC has a number of inside mids but whether Neeld would prefer a Wines who can play straight away at a level higher than some of the already listed inside mids remains to be seen. It is not inconceivable that GWS will not draft O'Rourke at 3. The risk with O'Rourke is higher than Wines??? and the last thing the MFC want is another 'didn't quite make it' high pick.
Agree that if Hogan turns out to be a star what was paid is irrelevant, especially since the MFC have pick 4 - I think as another poster alluded to the 3 clubs got together and sorted all this out before Trade month started.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare, if you had to pick Nick Graham or Sam Colquhoun, who would it be?

I'd put it down to situation dependent. Both have had productive seasons.

I like Graham more and as my power rankings suggest would be the player I'd pick first but both of late have been regarded as 1st rounders so I suggest there would be a number divided but Colquhoun having played u18 champs has probably convinced recruiters more doing it against the best in the country and had that little bit more exposure.

I still have a feeling that GWS not nominating for Viney with their first two picks was part of the Hogan deal. Would make the Melbourne deal a little more easier to understand.

If I was Melbourne I would have said "I dare you to nominate Viney" - with the knowledge that it means giving Whitfield would go to Gold Coast. But we can only speculate what really happened.

Hi KM, strategically it would be far better for the MFC to go for an O'Rourke who has exceptional pace that as an inside receiver can burst away from congestion areas -invaluable. MFC has a number of inside mids but whether Neeld would prefer a Wines who can play straight away at a level higher than some of the already listed inside mids remains to be seen. It is not inconceivable that GWS will not draft O'Rourke at 3. The risk with O'Rourke is higher than Wines??? and the last thing the MFC want is another 'didn't quite make it' high pick.
Agree that if Hogan turns out to be a star what was paid is irrelevant, especially since the MFC have pick 4 - I think as another poster alluded to the 3 clubs got together and sorted all this out before Trade month started.

O'Rourke has been connected to GWS so who knows. Wines I view as the more sure thing - just don't see him going wrong as that hard inside player.

O'Rourke you'd really want to surround with some great inside distributors - a Sydney would love him on the end of a the inside work of Josh Kennedy. So if Melbourne can create a similar dynamic with a number of strong inside ball winners then O'Rourke has the potential to work out like few others could early. But I see this as the defining factor - if confident in the existing midfield then maybe he is the choice.
I like Wines more as see him as the better of the two, but that doesn't mean that Melbourne or other scouts view him as the selection and O'Rourke is probably something more different so he might appeal more. If I was picking I'd go Macrae but with him mostly being regarded more top 10 than top 4 I try to keep my opinions on where I rate players out of things and go more based on where I expect them to land as much as possible.

 

[Defacto]

do you think anyone will pick up adam cockie from sandy?

 

[Thunderstruck]

G'Day Knight,

Just reading your power rankings and noticed Menzel down at 47. Now given that is purely a talent based rating on how you see them as a player I am a little staggered! Any reason for this large drop?? FWIW Menzel is currently 8th in my power rankings. But probably a bit lower in the real thing.

 

[Chris25]

I'd be interested in an explanation of what the 'power ranking' actually means. Is it purely a talent ranking? Or does it include everything, and is your prediction of who will have the best careers? Don't know if I should do one.

I don't quite understand how an average at best ruckman like Cameron Symonds who seems like an outside rookie chance could be ahead of three very talented players and likely first round picks in Simpson, Menzel and Colquhoun? I can't imagine any scenario where that could happen.

Also, I should add this isn't a criticism or anything. I just don't know what the criteria is. And I would have thought personal rankings are what shouldn't change all that much, unlike the actual draft.

 

[Knightmare]

do you think anyone will pick up adam cockie from sandy?

In the mix and has been solid these past two seasons. Has an impressive tackling game and I can imagine that will appeal to some but probably more of a situational rookie selection if drafted.

G'Day Knight,

Just reading your power rankings and noticed Menzel down at 47. Now given that is purely a talent based rating on how you see them as a player I am a little staggered! Any reason for this large drop?? FWIW Menzel is currently 8th in my power rankings. But probably a bit lower in the real thing.

Why I have Menzel so low down my power rankings is that I don't believe his knees will hold up. He might have a full season here or there where he is perfectly fine but I have zero confidence in LARS and while he is a top 10 talent I don't see him being a top 10 player over the length of his career (might only play 50 games) and I see him as largely a ticking time bomb. Just wouldn't want to rely on his body holding up if I was building a team.

So while I accept he goes higher than my power rankings suggest on draft day - if it was me selecting he isn't one I'd be selecting in the 1st round at all.

In essence my power rankings is my perception of how good a player is and where I rate them over the length of their career and if picking where I would pick them.

 

[Thunderstruck]

Ah interesting, cheers for that. He has certainly been one of my favourites in my scouting over the past couple of years. Limited when I was in Darwin however but he is probably the most talented Under 18 player in SA I have seen since Matthew Pavlich. Has ridiculous ability and it is a great shame about his body. But I do have faith in LARS, I think it is the right way to go for him so I am confident his body will not completely wither away and he will make something of his career. Obviously I still expect him to be injury prone because that is just what he is. So will stick with my 8 in my power rankings as I essentially do power rankings the same as you (I don't really believe in phantoms if you know me, more just the rankings themselves).

 

[Chris25]

It's worth noting that one LARS doesn't mean he is stuck with it forever. He had his knee examined, and the doctor said that if it goes again then he could likely have a traditional knee replacement. So while he might be injury prone, it shouldn't be the LARS which is the problem long term.