Malcolm Turnbull - How long?

[Juddism]

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...532301570?sv=75fd753bcb4ebc095dce9934ee02cc12

http://www.afr.com/news/politics/am...abbott-and-made-turnbull-king-20150916-gjoj7h

leaks everywhere, I give him 10months and if Abbott's henchmen have done a hatchet job on him then I'll be damned. You'd have thought they'd have learned from the ALP & Abbott fiasco, seems not. I find the AFR article hard to stomach...who the eff do these faceless men think they are? They seem to think they can do as they wish, when they want, and replace leaders without consulting the Australian public, their masters.

I eagerly await Turnbull's new front-bench. I'd love to know who advised Abbott to call the vote on Monday night.

 

[Maggie5]

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...532301570?sv=75fd753bcb4ebc095dce9934ee02cc12

http://www.afr.com/news/politics/am...abbott-and-made-turnbull-king-20150916-gjoj7h

leaks everywhere, I give him 10months and if Abbott's henchmen have done a hatchet job on him then I'll be damned. You'd have thought they'd have learned from the ALP & Abbott fiasco, seems not. I find the AFR article hard to stomach...who the eff do these faceless men think they are? They seem to think they can do as they wish, when they want, and replace leaders without consulting the Australian public, their masters.

I eagerly await Turnbull's new front-bench. I'd love to know who advised Abbott to call the vote on Monday night.

All very interesting. Could only read the AFR link though. Damn paywall.

 

[Juddism]

Vow doesn’t apply to mates

google the bold and you'll be able to read the oz article too.

 

[Maggie5]

Vow doesn’t apply to mates

google the bold and you'll be able to read the oz article too.

Thanks, all he needs now is the Tele and shock jocks.

They didn't learn much from the R/G/R experience it seems but I suppose that as long as the polls are positive, he will remain in the job.

Canning results will be very interesting.

 

[Ratts of Tobruk]

Disunity is death in politics.

Either Malcolm bows down to the right-wing and makes all the centrist voters dislike him, or he does what the centrist voters want and the right-wingers do to him what he just did to them.

This was the biggest problem with Howard's dog-whistling to Pauline Hanson voters. It bred Abbott's leadership approach and created a right-wing in the Liberals that has far too much confidence. Their views are unpopular. They're making The LNP unelectable.

But how can Turnbull deal with them? He can't make everyone a minister. He's essentially in the same stalemate as Abbott - unable to do what he truly wants to because what the public wants and what his own party members want are too far apart.

 

[Docker Clint]

So much for Labor's "faceless men" that we kept hearing about.

 

[Juddism]

Disunity is death in politics.

Either Malcolm bows down to the right-wing and makes all the centrist voters dislike him, or he does what the centrist voters want and the right-wingers do to him what he just did to them.

This was the biggest problem with Howard's dog-whistling to Pauline Hanson voters. It bred Abbott's leadership approach and created a right-wing in the Liberals that has far too much confidence. Their views are unpopular. They're making The LNP unelectable.

But how can Turnbull deal with them? He can't make everyone a minister. He's essentially in the same stalemate as Abbott - unable to do what he truly wants to because what the public wants and what his own party members want are too far apart.

how do we, the voting public, get it into the heads of the party members that it is about what the public wants and not the party members? seriously, is this going to happen every 18 months? we elect a government, they poll poorly, we turf the leader, and start over again..Murdoch carrying on about polls and Abbott being a good bloke, but it was Murdoch's newspoll that said otherwise.

If Abbott sticks around he'll undoubtedly cause friction for Turnbull.

 

[Gough]

I'm no fan of Scott Morrison, but he was treated appallingly by Ray Hadley this morning, the hard right are not going to lie down, and cop this without a fight. They have a real problem though, if Turnbull is re-elected, and then deposed for one of their own, you are almost guaranteed that the Libs will lose the subsequent election, as they will rightly, or wrongly be seen as not better than the ALP when it comes to the revolving door of leadership. It will be interesting to see whether they are happy to have a stake in government, or whether they are hell bent on ensuring that it's their way, or the road.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

Vow doesn’t apply to mates

google the bold and you'll be able to read the oz article too.

Still wants me to subscribe on my phone.

 

[Chameleon75]

morrison has emerged as the king maker, if he shifts his numbers mal is gone, will have huge input in policy direction for that reason

 

[Bomberboyokay]

14 months. Will call election for November 2016, hope Hillary-mania rubs off on him

 

[Juddism]

Still wants me to subscribe on my phone.

google the bold and click on the first link that appears.

Tony Abbott has pledged not to “white ant” Malcolm Turnbull but some “massively angry” followers seem prepared to provide the sort of cabinet leaks used to destabilise the former prime minister.



As individual Liberal Party members start sending seething emails organising grassroots protests over Mr Abbott’s “dismissal”, Canberra insider gossip is emerging about the early workings of the Turnbull government contradicting the Prime Minister’s promise of a new regime.

Innocuous details of the first cabinet meeting of the Turnbull government on Tuesday are emerging; cabinet figures contradicting Mr Turnbull’s claims about promoting women have been leaked; some of Mr Abbott’s supporters have had meetings; and Liberals are complaining they were kept in the dark over the Coalition agreement Mr Turnbull signed with Nationals leader, Warren Truss.

The Australian has been told the Prime Minister’s first cabinet meeting lacked the expected inclusiveness after Mr Turnbull’s promise to restore proper cabinet processes and to be “collegiate and collaborative”.

Opening the meeting, Mr Turnbull stressed the importance of “continuity of government” and thanked ministers for continuing to serve in their positions.

But some MPs said it was a difficult situation given some knew they would not be coming back into the cabinet room after the ministerial shuffle next Monday.

“It was a bit bizarre,” one Liberal told The Australian.

Environment Minister Greg Hunt, famed for his graphic presentations and multi-pointed arguments, suggested Mr Turnbull take some comments from those around the cabinet table. Mr Turnbull listened to the minister’s first point but closed discussion before he got to points two and three.

He did not seek further comments from around the table and called in the outer ministry members. Mr Turnbull then addressed the full ministry and called for any questions. There were none and the meeting ended.

Yesterday Labor pursued Mr Turnbull over a cabinet document leaked to Fairfax Media showed he was the Abbott government’s worst-performing minister as far as appointing women to boards.

Fairfax reported that the document, dated August 6, is headed “Protected: Sensitive: Cabinet” and has a table of cabinet-level appointments to boards made since September 2013, when the Coalition came to office. Of the 16 appointments made to boards in Mr Turnbull’s communications portfolio, only one was a woman.

Mr Abbott has been criticised for “having a problem with women” and not having enough women in his cabinet and ministry but the former prime minister, Employment Minister Eric Abetz and Immigration Minister Peter Dutton, said to be dumped by Mr Turnbull, all exceeded the 40 per cent target of female board appointments.

There is also anger from some Liberal MPs over the way Mr Turnbull handled the signing of the Coalition agreement with the Nationals, which he needs to govern, before his first parliamentary question time as prime minister.

Mr Turnbull agreed to hand the water portfolio back to the Nationals and positively consider overturning Mr Abbott’s opposition to small-business competition rules.

While Nationals MPs knew of the detail before question time, hardly any Liberals did: they only became aware of the changes when Labor MPs asked Mr Turnbull about media reports that the portfolio was shifting.

“It’s an interesting start to the new consultative government,’’ one Liberal said yesterday.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...532301570?sv=75fd753bcb4ebc095dce9934ee02cc12

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-polit...ondays-leadership-ballot-20150917-gjpidn.html

http://www.smh.com.au/comment/malco...nect-to-middle-australia-20150916-gjojxk.html

 

[pazza]

I 'm giving him till next year's Budget.

 

[Showbags]

I'm no fan of Scott Morrison, but he was treated appallingly by Ray Hadley this morning, the hard right are not going to lie down, and cop this without a fight. They have a real problem though, if Turnbull is re-elected, and then deposed for one of their own, you are almost guaranteed that the Libs will lose the subsequent election, as they will rightly, or wrongly be seen as not better than the ALP when it comes to the revolving door of leadership. It will be interesting to see whether they are happy to have a stake in government, or whether they are hell bent on ensuring that it's their way, or the road.

The Hard Right are probably quite happy to spend some time in the wilderness of Opposition if it means they "get their party back" so to speak. They will whiteant and attack anything moderate or progressive as they want to take the Liberal Party in the direction of the Ultra Right Tea Party in the US.

This is the problem with Turnbull in this situation. He has got the immediate honeymoon poll bounce but I can't see it lasting. My tip is his party will eat him alive and he will be seen as a lame duck do nothing Prime Minister (I hope he proves me wrong).

 

[Illinois Nazi]

It's a shame because I think he's actually potentially very good for the job.

 

[WA ROO]

After the next election

 

[Schraderbrau]

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...532301570?sv=75fd753bcb4ebc095dce9934ee02cc12

http://www.afr.com/news/politics/am...abbott-and-made-turnbull-king-20150916-gjoj7h

leaks everywhere, I give him 10months and if Abbott's henchmen have done a hatchet job on him then I'll be damned. You'd have thought they'd have learned from the ALP & Abbott fiasco, seems not. I find the AFR article hard to stomach...who the eff do these faceless men think they are? They seem to think they can do as they wish, when they want, and replace leaders without consulting the Australian public, their masters.

I eagerly await Turnbull's new front-bench. I'd love to know who advised Abbott to call the vote on Monday night.

lol of course there are going to be cabinet leaks given that cabinet is currently stacked with hardcore Abbott loyalists who are very pissed. How many of them will be left in the cabinet reshuffle next week? I also wouldn't be surprised if some of the leaking is coming from people in the former PMO. As for the article in the Aus, take its accuracy with a grain of salt as it has clearly been sourced from a pissed off Abbott supporter.

As for how long Turnbull will last, well he will win the next election and unless the ALP gets its act together probably the one after that as well.

Also faceless men are more than within their rights to dismiss an under performing PM. In our system the party room elect the leader, not the average punter.

 

[imadodgyumpire]

Is this a closest to the pin contest? I'm saying Aug 2021.

 

[Maggie5]

lol of course there are going to be cabinet leaks given that cabinet is currently stacked with hardcore Abbott loyalists who are very pissed. How many of them will be left in the cabinet reshuffle next week? I also wouldn't be surprised if some of the leaking is coming from people in the former PMO. As for the article in the Aus, take its accuracy with a grain of salt as it has clearly been sourced from a pissed off Abbott supporter.

As for how long Turnbull will last, well he will win the next election and unless the ALP gets its act together probably the one after that as well.

Also faceless men are more than within their rights to dismiss an under performing PM. In our system the party room elect the leader, not the average punter.

I still believe that despite the bump in polls with Malcolm, polices will dictate the winner next election.

If Malcolm gets it right he wins, if he follows current policies and especially climate change given his beliefs, will be very close and am not so sure.

 

[Juddism]

Also faceless men are more than within their rights to dismiss an under performing PM. In our system the party room elect the leader, not the average punter.

until 5 years ago we never had this revolving door of PM's. Why should Newspoll decide who should[not]run our country? what does it say to the electorate? I like Turnbull, and I might even vote for the Liberal Party for the firs time, but if this s**t carries into his Prime Ministership then what's next? Morrison before next election?

leaks within a day of being in office only show signs of bitter division. The far right already have him in their cross-hairs.

 

[Juddism]

I still believe that despite the bump in polls with Malcolm, polices will dictate the winner next election.

If Malcolm gets it right he wins, if he follows current policies and especially climate change given his beliefs, will be very close and am not so sure.

will the right of the party allow him to get it right? no same sex marriage, no climate policy, where will it end? no wonder Morrison played a straight bat during the affair, dethrone Abbott, install Turbull, then dethrone him and replaced by Morrison. I'd dare say he'd be unelectable as PM.

 

[Maggie5]

will the right of the party allow him to get it right? no same sex marriage, no climate policy, where will it end? no wonder Morrison played a straight bat during the affair, dethrone Abbott, install Turbull, then dethrone him and replaced by Morrison. I'd dare say he'd be unelectable as PM.

The right might go for Morrison but do you think the public will if taking similar policies as Abbott to the polls?

 

[Schraderbrau]

I still believe that despite the bump in polls with Malcolm, polices will dictate the winner next election.

If Malcolm gets it right he wins, if he follows current policies and especially climate change given his beliefs, will be very close and am not so sure.

The thing is unlike Abbott v Gillard and Rudd; Shorten had nothing to do with Abbott's fall, it was all self-inflicted. What it did do was allow Shorten to sit back and do nothing for 2 years while the government imploded - there is not much to distinguish to two parties at all and climate change as an issue is not the game changer it was last time MT was opposition. This election will turn on the economy, issues like gay marriage (which is effectively nullified anyway) and environment will be secondary considerations imo

Given their shambolic last two terms, the onus is firmly on the ALP to prove to the electorate that they can be a party of government. I'm not sure they can with Shorten in charge. Providing MT doesn't commit an act of monumental stupidity the libs should sail it in at the next election. Being the incumbent is still a big deal imo, remember even Gillard was heading to a win until Rudd starting leaking against her in the campaign, and as bad as team Abbott is I doubt they are nasty enough to do what Rudd did.

 

[Schraderbrau]

will the right of the party allow him to get it right? no same sex marriage, no climate policy, where will it end? no wonder Morrison played a straight bat during the affair, dethrone Abbott, install Turbull, then dethrone him and replaced by Morrison. I'd dare say he'd be unelectable as PM.

Turnbull is in a formidable position because dethroning him guarantees an ALP reelection. This will only happen if the libs are getting pumped and it becomes a save the furniture situation like with Rudd.

Also the crazy right wingers in the party are nowhere near as powerful as they are getting credit for. Abbott is the most conservative leader in years and he barely had the numbers to be opposition leader and it was only because it was a three way race b/w him and Turnbull/Hockey who stole votes off each other. Additionally Abbott was such a stunning failure as PM that it is difficult seeing any conservative become leader for a long term. The best they are going to do is someone like Morrison who is referred to a the darling of the right but is really just an ambitious moderate - or will try to be that if he ever becomes leader to give him the best chance of election.

 

[Schraderbrau]

until 5 years ago we never had this revolving door of PM's. Why should Newspoll decide who should[not]run our country? what does it say to the electorate? I like Turnbull, and I might even vote for the Liberal Party for the firs time, but if this s**t carries into his Prime Ministership then what's next? Morrison before next election?

leaks within a day of being in office only show signs of bitter division. The far right already have him in their cross-hairs.

Newspoll doesn't decide who runs the country. The fact that Abbott trailed for so long in newspoll was justifiably used by people in the libs to mount the case that his leadership was terminal. This whole newspoll thing is being driven by the shock jocks in denial that Abbott wasn't up to the job.

Bitter division is inevitable but not permanent or fatal for Turnbull's leadership. He would never of got the numbers in the first place if the majority in the LNP weren't very confident that the next election is in the bag under his leadership. What MT was clever about was minimizing that inevitable fall out. Abbotts leadership has been in question for over 12 months yet there is no evidence of MT actionable undermining or sabotaging and he took the leadership with a strong majority. Finally, he'll almost certainly have a few conservatives in cabinet to mend fences.