NSW NSW State Election: 25th March 2023

[Hoops]

One Nation pulverised.

Now FRO Latham you racist divisive pile of stinkin' horse dung. And take those cowardly women bashing Christian Lives Matter blackshirt thugs from western Sydney with you.

Onward, Christian soldiers! Marching as to war

 

[Stan_Darsh72]

I don’t know why they keep bringing Johnny Howard out again and again.

The other reporter gets it, but to rwnj he is a deity.

They need to move out of the conservative shadow into the new world. But they won’t and are just hoping the world changes back.

Because Johnny reminds people of the good times,

Sadly johnny's good times came at the expense of the young and the young have grown up and hell next round of elections there will be voters born after Johhny got kicked out.

 

[spinynorman]

Did not see Tasmania becoming the Taiwan of Australia coming but so it goes.

Can't help but think the swing away from the Liberals in Willoughby might have been because of the Labor candidate's excellent social media.

 

[Stottzy]

Did not see Tasmania becoming the Taiwan of Australia coming but so it goes.

Can't help but think the swing away from the Liberals in Willoughby might have been because of the Labor candidate's excellent social media.

Being saying this for ages about the Libs. They are so far behind Labour and the Greens with social media, it wouldn't surprise me if some of their MPs carry a Nokia 3310.

Liberal are worrying so much time on if their policy is right, or about "the culture wars", when their biggest issue is really their poor PR and social media marketing.

 

[nut]

Being saying this for ages about the Libs. They are so far behind Labour and the Greens with social media, it wouldn't surprise me if some of their MPs carry a Nokia 3310.

Liberal are worrying so much time on if their policy is right, or about "the culture wars", when their biggest issue is really their poor PR and social media marketing.

Social media is just exposing how bad they are … they’ve relied on News corp to bullshit the population…

You can’t polish a turd.

 

[western royboy]

Being saying this for ages about the Libs. They are so far behind Labour and the Greens with social media, it wouldn't surprise me if some of their MPs carry a Nokia 3310.

Liberal are worrying so much time on if their policy is right, or about "the culture wars", when their biggest issue is really their poor PR and social media marketing.

Nah not true, I got a call from the little Aussie Battler Lil Johnny Howard direct before the last federal election, ****ed if I know how he got me number but he called me urging me to vote Libs, didn’t want to listen to what I had to say so I hung up #r#robocall

 

[sataris]

Being saying this for ages about the Libs. They are so far behind Labour and the Greens with social media, it wouldn't surprise me if some of their MPs carry a Nokia 3310.

Liberal are worrying so much time on if their policy is right, or about "the culture wars", when their biggest issue is really their poor PR and social media marketing.

You better not be trash talking the 3310

Greatest phone of all time.

ALL TIME.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

i hope this really makes the brains trust reassess their alignments with sky news & move away from religious fundamentalism & hardcore US conservative tactics

Doubt it.

By now they’d be well aware that Australia is not America. But rather than leave off, they’ll just start trying to make us more like America, so that their warped ideas fall on more furtive soil.

Watch for a big push to make voting voluntary, undermine the AEC, loosen political donations rules (when society at large wants them tightened up considerably) etc etc.

One thing about the right wing. Every time they get in a slap in the face they just go, “OK; how about we try….. THIS”.

It’s actually puzzling to see such passion and determination applied to a philosophy so odious, but that’s our enemy, and we need to be ever vigilant.

Not to mention that the massive social divide being engineered by their decades-long project to run down public education and privilege private schools has yet to really manifest itself in our society.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Right wing Americans politics don't work in Australia. For these Sky Drongos they'll have to either ban under 30s from voting, get rid of compulsory voting and then aim to disenfranchise mostly left leaning voters, or spark a revival of fundamentalist religion to get their agenda through.

As per my previous post, I have no doubt that is precisely their plan.

Really excellent post, BTW.

 

[Stottzy]

You better not be trash talking the 3310

Greatest phone of all time.

ALL TIME.

Battery life will never be beat.

 

[Caesar]

They are all done. I’m not sure how many elections the conservatives need to lose before they realise they are 100% totally unelectable.

They have one state left - then what?

This stuff is cyclical. After the 2007 federal election Labor had every state and territory. Fast forward five years, most of the country was back under Coalition government.

Despite holding Tasmania I’d argue the Coalition’s situation is slightly worse this time around - there were some pretty weak Labor state governments waiting to be knocked over in 2007 - but the same general principle applies

e.g. due to weak oppositions the Victorian and Queensland governments are probably going to survive for longer than they should, which will inevitably trigger a voter backlash at some point.

The ship is always self-righting

 

[fs88]

This stuff is cyclical. After the 2007 federal election Labor had every state and territory. Fast forward five years, most of the country was back under Coalition government.

Despite holding Tasmania I’d argue the Coalition’s situation is slightly worse this time around - there were some pretty weak Labor state governments waiting to be knocked over in 2007 - but the same general principle applies

e.g. due to weak oppositions the Victorian and Queensland governments are probably going to survive for longer than they should, which will inevitably trigger a voter backlash at some point.

The ship is always self-righting

This time I don’t think it’ll happen because of social media. Any Murdoch lies and scare campaigns will immediately be shot down, and then they’ve got to deal with the fact that they’ll keep losing the new youth votes.

 

[Caesar]

This time I don’t think it’ll happen because of social media. Any Murdoch lies and scare campaigns will immediately be shot down, and then they’ve got to deal with the fact that they’ll keep losing the new youth votes.

so what, Labor will stay in power forever? That is a nice fairy story

Reality is that if an opposition is too weak, with enough time the government will eventually just defeat itself anyway. Stay in power too long and you become so complacent, overreaching or corrupt that the electorate has no choice but to kick you out.

By doing little other than keep his head down Chris Minns has just cruised to power over a stale 12-year Coalition government - who themselves came to power over a corrupt 12-year Labor government

That’s just how it goes. A weak opposition merely delays the inevitable, and makes sure things reach a lower nadir before the inevitable happens

 

[Gough]

This stuff is cyclical. After the 2007 federal election Labor had every state and territory. Fast forward five years, most of the country was back under Coalition government.

Despite holding Tasmania I’d argue the Coalition’s situation is slightly worse this time around - there were some pretty weak Labor state governments waiting to be knocked over in 2007 - but the same general principle applies

e.g. due to weak oppositions the Victorian and Queensland governments are probably going to survive for longer than they should, which will inevitably trigger a voter backlash at some point.

The ship is always self-righting

Federally Labor is not their problem, until they can recapture the teal seats the Libs don't have an easy path back into government and that looks difficult with their current direction.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

This stuff is cyclical. After the 2007 federal election Labor had every state and territory. Fast forward five years, most of the country was back under Coalition government.

Despite holding Tasmania I’d argue the Coalition’s situation is slightly worse this time around - there were some pretty weak Labor state governments waiting to be knocked over in 2007 - but the same general principle applies

e.g. due to weak oppositions the Victorian and Queensland governments are probably going to survive for longer than they should, which will inevitably trigger a voter backlash at some point.

The ship is always self-righting

I’d argue there’s a case that there’s a meta cycle at work now, which overrides the ordinary Oz election cycles.

The gruesome four years of Trump really opened people’s eyes worldwide to how bad things could get if you give free reign to that end of politics, and there is now a slow but steady resistance to it taking form in many nations.

On the next level down, we have the federal government, and I think the true awfulness of a near-decade of federal Coalition government, culminating in the appalling Morrison (closely identified with NSW), is still filtering through into the general consciousness. The Robodebt Royal Commission and Morrison’s bizarre self-appointment to numerous ministries have given people cause to understand just how awful that government was and there’s every chance there are further revelations in the wings.

I think those things are definitely on people’s minds when they vote right now.

I’m not saying you’re wrong - those cycles you identified will continue to be a factor - but I would argue they are not currently playing as dominant a role as they previously did.

 

[Caesar]

I’d argue there’s a case that there’s a meta cycle at work now, which overrides the ordinary Oz election cycles.

The gruesome four years of Trump really opened people’s eyes worldwide to how bad things could get if you give free reign to that end of politics, and there is now a slow but steady resistance to it taking form in many nations.

On the next level down, we have the federal government, and I think the true awfulness of a near-decade of federal Coalition government, culminating in the appalling Morrison (closely identified with NSW), is still filtering through into the general consciousness. The Robodebt Royal Commission and Morrison’s bizarre self-appointment to numerous ministries have given people cause to understand just how awful that government was and there’s every chance there are further revelations in the wings.

I think those things are definitely on people’s minds when they vote right now.

I’m not saying you’re wrong - those cycles you identified will continue to be a factor - but I would argue they are not currently playing as dominant a role as they previously did.

I think it is only people who are super involved in politics who think like this

For the average voter who isn't rusted on Coalition and Labor are two slightly different groups of people who do slightly different things, and although people might feel more aligned to one or the other the overriding attitude is they're all pollies and not to be trusted and you have to give them a whack every 6-12 years to keep them honest

and most political campaigning seems mostly geared around ensuring that's closer to 12 for them, and closer to 6 for their opponents

 

[Baltimore Jack]

This stuff is cyclical. After the 2007 federal election Labor had every state and territory. Fast forward five years, most of the country was back under Coalition government.

Despite holding Tasmania I’d argue the Coalition’s situation is slightly worse this time around - there were some pretty weak Labor state governments waiting to be knocked over in 2007 - but the same general principle applies

e.g. due to weak oppositions the Victorian and Queensland governments are probably going to survive for longer than they should, which will inevitably trigger a voter backlash at some point.

The ship is always self-righting

A lot of the LNP fight back in 2007 and later was due to Murdog

That will not happen this time around, the Millennials don't pay the slightest bit of attention to him

 

[FredLeDeux]

I’d argue there’s a case that there’s a meta cycle at work now, which overrides the ordinary Oz election cycles.

The gruesome four years of Trump really opened people’s eyes worldwide to how bad things could get if you give free reign to that end of politics, and there is now a slow but steady resistance to it taking form in many nations.

On the next level down, we have the federal government, and I think the true awfulness of a near-decade of federal Coalition government, culminating in the appalling Morrison (closely identified with NSW), is still filtering through into the general consciousness. The Robodebt Royal Commission and Morrison’s bizarre self-appointment to numerous ministries have given people cause to understand just how awful that government was and there’s every chance there are further revelations in the wings.

I think those things are definitely on people’s minds when they vote right now.

I’m not saying you’re wrong - those cycles you identified will continue to be a factor - but I would argue they are not currently playing as dominant a role as they previously did.

At least in NSW the so-called cycle will kick in pretty quickly as soon as the NSW ALP starts getting caught out in corrupt behaviour - which is inevitable, because it's in their DNA; jeez, one of them went down for 14 years just last Friday.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

At least in NSW the so-called cycle will kick in pretty quickly as soon as the NSW ALP starts getting caught out in corrupt behaviour - which is inevitable, because it's in their DNA; jeez, one of them went down for 14 years just last Friday.

Possibly, but I suspect they will get two terms as a minimum

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

so what, Labor will stay in power forever? That is a nice fairy story

Reality is that if an opposition is too weak, with enough time the government will eventually just defeat itself anyway. Stay in power too long and you become so complacent, overreaching or corrupt that the electorate has no choice but to kick you out.

By doing little other than keep his head down Chris Minns has just cruised to power over a stale 12-year Coalition government - who themselves came to power over a corrupt 12-year Labor government

That’s just how it goes. A weak opposition merely delays the inevitable, and makes sure things reach a lower nadir before the inevitable happens

Yeah you’re predicating that on the assumption that all governments are corrupt in the end (not unreasonable in the case of NSW politics, I’ll grant.)

Integrity is SUCH a big political issue right now. It’s hard to overstate it. If a new government can put in place some concrete, positive actions to show that they are not like the previous crooks that we are all sick to the back teeth of, they can win the trust of the electorate and govern for a lot longer than the cynicism-based cycle would allow.

Of course, they have to DO that. I remain to be convinced that NSW Labor is not 100% owned by fossil fuel interests and the clubs industry.

 

[FredLeDeux]

Possibly, but I suspect they will get two terms as a minimum

Possibly, maybe even probably, because the population of NSW has become inured to political corruption more or less continuously since approximately 27 January 1788.

 

[Caesar]

Federally Labor is not their problem, until they can recapture the teal seats the Libs don't have an easy path back into government and that looks difficult with their current direction.

Yeah that is a fair call and I do agree

I guess what I'm saying is that there are two paths - actively try and win those seats back, or shoot themselves in the foot repeatedly until the federal ALP government get so bad that the teal seats are so disgruntled that they vote Liberal #1 just to get them out

The third option is that the Liberals neglect that part of the spectrum for so long that there is a fundamental realignment of the political landscape (which I get the impression is what SBD Gonzalez is alluding to)

and I don't necessarily disagree this is on the cards but I don't think the teal movement is going to make that happen on their own (once you look past shared goals on climate they are very much a collection of independents, which makes it hard to see a 'teal party' arising)

 

[Mofra]

Being saying this for ages about the Libs. They are so far behind Labour and the Greens with social media, it wouldn't surprise me if some of their MPs carry a Nokia 3310.

Liberal are worrying so much time on if their policy is right, or about "the culture wars", when their biggest issue is really their poor PR and social media marketing.

Well, if they try and consider anything remotely resembling a 'moving with the times' Sky/Murdoch/party doners start white-anting them.
It's why the Kroger party funding episode in Victoria was so telling.
Turnbull could get away with it and fund his own campaign. Now any wet-Lib thinking of running will probably get bypassed and a more conservative candidate gets parachuted in.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

I think it is only people who are super involved in politics who think like this

For the average voter who isn't rusted on Coalition and Labor are two slightly different groups of people who do slightly different things, and although people might feel more aligned to one or the other the overriding attitude is they're all pollies and not to be trusted and you have to give them a whack every 6-12 years to keep them honest

and most political campaigning seems mostly geared around ensuring that's closer to 12 for them, and closer to 6 for their opponents

We’ll agree to disagree. That is your perception and I have no definitive proof it’s wrong, but my perception is that there is definitely a change underfoot.

 

[Caesar]

Yeah you’re predicating that on the assumption that all governments are corrupt in the end (not unreasonable in the case of NSW politics, I’ll grant.)

It's not just about corruption, I think it is also about ideas and drive and whatnot

e.g. if you are in opposition, to a certain extent getting to the front bench is about showing that you have innovative ideas that can promote the case for change to the general public, and the ability to hold the government accountable - that stuff matters less when your party is already in government, and rising through the ranks is mostly about sucking up to those already in power

Similarly once you've been in power for a while, all your good/common-ground policies are implemented so you start digging up the bad/divisive ones (e.g. Workchoices) - either because you're complacent enough to think you can do whatever you like, or because you're desperately trying to look like you're not out of ideas