NSW NSW State Election: 25th March 2023

[spinynorman]

Newtown is always buzzing. You're sure that wasn't just Newtown being Newtown?

Maybe, I was just hoping to deflect blame to the Greenslide for how rough I felt Sunday.

 

[Caesar]

And minority governments can never work for the Liberals because all the minority parties are well to the left of them.

I wouldn't say that. Maybe in the upper house the minority parties lean left, but in the lower house (where minority government is decided) there is no clear advantage in the crossbench for either major party

It is true that in most crossbench negotiations the ALP start off slightly ahead on numbers, due to being able to bank a couple of Greens votes straight away. But offsetting that is the fact that the remainder of the crossbench are usually mostly from conservative rural/regional electorates (where personal vote goes a long way). i.e. all else being equal the ALP will have the tougher negotiation, but the Coalition will need more votes.

That said the rise of the urban teal movement does have the potential to change those dynamics. But we will have to wait until they hold the balance of power in a hung parliament to see how that plays out.

 

[QuietB]

I wouldn't say that. Maybe in the upper house the minority parties lean left, but in the lower house (where minority government is decided) there is no clear advantage in the crossbench for either major party

It is true that in most crossbench negotiations the ALP start off slightly ahead on numbers, due to being able to bank a couple of Greens votes straight away. But offsetting that is the fact that the remainder of the crossbench are usually mostly from conservative rural/regional electorates (where personal vote goes a long way). i.e. all else being equal the ALP will have the tougher negotiation, but the Coalition will need more votes.

That said the rise of the urban teal movement does have the potential to change those dynamics. But we will have to wait until they hold the balance of power in a hung parliament to see how that plays out.

Gillard formed government with three largely conservative country MP's.

The Liberals simply refuse to negotiate on anything.

 

[Caesar]

Gillard formed government with three largely conservative country MP's.

one swallow does not make a summer

 

[nut]

Greens vote is around 10% now isn’t it?

And if you are a moderate liberal you are now more likely to join the Labor party….if you have any leadership aspersions.

I’m now thinking Skynews is actually a left wing tool .. pushing the liberal party so far right that they are irrelevant.

 

[sataris]

Greens vote is around 10% now isn’t it?

And if you are a moderate liberal you are now more likely to join the Labor party….if you have any leadership aspersions.

I’m now thinking Skynews is actually a left wing tool .. pushing the liberal party so far right that they are irrelevant.

I really can't imagine someone like Peta Credlin being the chessmaster

 

[Caesar]

And if you are a moderate liberal you are now more likely to join the Labor party….if you have any leadership aspersions.

not really

Actual liberals in the ALP end up like Andrew Leigh - i.e. stuck on the backbench due to refusal to factionally align. At least if they join the Liberal Party they stand a chance of getting to the front bench.

It is Sophie's choice though, there is no real home for small-l liberals in the current political landscape

 

[nut]

I really can't imagine someone like Peta Credlin being the chessmaster

Not her … the one who put her there is the chessmaster.

One thing for sure is all that money that is being spent on right wing media is a complete waste.

 

[sataris]

Not her … the one who put her there is the chessmaster.

One thing for sure is all that money that is being spent on right wing media is a complete waste.

Shhhh

Don't tell them that.

 

[QuietB]

Not her … the one who put her there is the chessmaster.

One thing for sure is all that money that is being spent on right wing media is a complete waste.

No it's not. They are still spending the money they fleeced out of the Morrison government and have enough to sustain whatever they want for a while yet.

 

[#23 Hill]

What do you think it means going forward for Australia, now that we have a Ferderal Labor Government and Labor Governments in every state except Tassie? I'm expecting progressives are going to be disappointed with the lack of improvement in housing affordability and the cost of living.

 

[nut]

No it's not. They are still spending the money they fleeced out of the Morrison government and have enough to sustain whatever they want for a while yet.

Good … it’s achieving nothing.

 

[nut]

What do you think it means going forward for Australia, now that we have a Ferderal Labor Government and Labour Governments in every state except Tassie? I'm expecting progressives are going to be disappointed with the lack of improvement in housing affordability and the cost of living.

The greens vote is increasing more and more.
I think we will see Australia start to follow the Nordic model.

 

[sataris]

The greens vote is increasing more and more.
I think we will see Australia start to follow the Nordic model.

Hope we get a sovereign wealth fund from all the s**t we pull out of the ground and sell overseas.

Will never happen though.

 

[nut]

Hope we get a sovereign wealth fund from all the s**t we pull out of the ground and sell overseas.

Will never happen though.

We will see democracy bombs from our US “mates” before we ever see a sovereign wealth fund.

 

[Ghost Patrol]

We will see democracy bombs from our US “mates” before we ever see a sovereign wealth fund.

The Future Fund, which has Peter Costello on it’s board, has a massive investment in Newscorp…..

This was secret, only revealed a few days ago via FOI requests.

 

[schneebly111]

I'm expecting progressives are going to be disappointed with the lack of improvement in housing affordability and the cost of living.

Wages are rising thank’s to ALP IR changes

 

[nut]

The Future Fund, which has Peter Costello on it’s board, has a massive investment in Newscorp…..

This was secret, only revealed a few days ago via FOI requests.

Rotten to the core

 

[Forward Press]

Will be a majority

Antony Green has got very gun-shy in his old age

Just wanted to bump this (yes I did bookmark it) as now it looks unlikely there will be a NSW Labor majority government.

Maybe the ABC and Antony Green know what they're doing.

 

[Forward Press]

He is waiting for a bunch of safe ALP seats (all with margins of 15%+) to reach 10% counted so he can all them and push the ALP past 47.

ALP majority is beyond doubt at this point.

Also this.

 

[Caesar]

Just wanted to bump this (yes I did bookmark it) as now it looks unlikely there will be a NSW Labor majority government.

Maybe the ABC and Antony Green know what they're doing.

That would be a devastating post if Antony Green hadn’t made the same mistake and had Labor on 47 yesterday morning

Maybe pay less attention to me and more to the election

 

[Forward Press]

That would be a devastating post if Antony Green hadn’t made the same mistake and had Labor on 47 yesterday morning

Maybe pay less attention to me and more to the election

Yes, a result which the election computer generated but Antony Green refused to make a call as he was aware of the vagaries of its predictions.

If he went with 'ALP majority a certainty' you'd be mocking him right now, I guarantee it. You've persistently questioned his methodology this election and in previous ones too.

It's okay to admit when you're wrong, mate.

 

[Ross]

I'm not entirely up to speed with NSW politics, if Labor falls short of a majority is it more likely they work with the Greens or the independents to form government?

 

[Caesar]

If he went with 'ALP majority a certainty' you'd be mocking him right now, I guarantee it. You've persistently questioned his methodology this election and in previous ones too.

It's okay to admit when you're wrong, mate.

I am wrong all the time, but as in this case I am usually wrong for the right reasons. And I would never criticise anyone else for being wrong for the right reasons. Certainly better that than sitting on the sidelines throwing rocks.

The silly thing is you are far more defensive about Antony's methodology than he is himself. He acknowledges that he is more interested in being cautious and avoiding things like taking back seats than providing the best possible forecast at any point in time. He accepts those are philosophical decisions he makes as a broadcaster and journalist that are open to debate.

I think another quality election analyst who would provide him with some competition on election night would do his forecasting a world of good, and cause him to fix some of the cautious elements of his model which I think are downright misleading.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

I'm not entirely up to speed with NSW politics, if Labor falls short of a majority is it more likely they work with the Greens or the independents to form government?

There won't be a formal arrangement as such. The crossbench is big enough and amicable enough that Labor shouldn't have much difficulty finding some grouping to back their legislation - they can move between different pairings (or the Greens) dependent on who is most likely to support a given issue.

Greens alone would guarantee confidence if the Libs tried anything.

Their hand might be forced on pokies though, as I think the entire crossbench was closer to the L/NP's stance?