Port and North - A Brief Dip or an Extended Slide Into Mediocrity?

[Howard Littlejohn]

With North, last year was a a blip in the other direction. Its true North have been worse than they are capable of, but medicority is already a long term thing. There is nobody on the current list that will play in a North Melbourne premiership - we are the new Richmond, and are racking up the 9th placed finishes to prove it. And North can't afford to drop to the bottom for draft picks, or the media pack will be howling yet again to kill the club off.

I don't think any small club can ever be a premiership threat again (maybe if they unearth an Ablett Sr type). In the 90s it was possible to do things smarter with fewer resources, but now the big cubs do things just as smart and have more resources they get maybe a two year advantage in developing players. By age 22 or 23 they can produce bona fide stars. At smaller clubs that seems to be 24 or 25 coming off roughly the same base when drafted.

edit: GC and GWS may be exceptions, due to the sheer volume of top draft picks they got. For small clubs without such advantages a premiership is nigh on impossible.

 

[Dirty_11]

A lot of Collingwood and Richmond supporters up and about.

 

[DerpWerls]

Port would have had to improve 5 years running which takes a lot of good luck. I expected them to go backwards this year (or stagnate) but think they will be back with a vengeance soon enough.

North aren't good enough to win a flag with their current veterans.

 

[wowlace]

Have never rated North and that's the reason why I get sooo pissed off when we can never beat them.

 

[DaVillaBlues]

Reckon Port can reload and climb up of they have a decent draft and trade period, but North's in trouble, massive concerns about their list in 18 months time.

 

[Marmozet]

Port: Dip. Feel like Hawthorn's 2009

North: Done. They aren't terrible but won't be premiership contenders with this list

When I said on here that our season so far feels a bit like your 2009 season, I was crucified because apparently you can't compare Port 2015 to Hawthorn 2009 because we didn't win the flag last year. Whilst that is true, it still doesn't mean your dip in 2009 can't be used as an example of how teams can fall down so quickly.

 

[MaddAdam]

Sack Scott, Ziebell captain and put in a massive media/PR campaign around the Shinboner Spirit.Membership tagline something like "Summon the Spirit"

Just all out nasty, aggressive football. Let the talent carry them in close games but build a foundation of being ruthless first.

Ziebell captain a must.

 

[Ry009]

Have never rated North and that's the reason why I get sooo pissed off when we can never beat them.

Has the skill level and intensity, along with coaching regimes of your club not frustrated you at any point in the past decade?

 

[shintemaster]

Has the skill level and intensity, along with coaching regimes of your club not frustrated you at any point in the past decade?

I guess North beating Melbourne is just one of those unexplainable things in life.

 

[Kram]

Port just have far too much young talent not to bounce back unfortunately.

North are cooked though, need to rebuild or rejuvenate their team/list or whatever.

 

[wowlace]

Has the skill level and intensity, along with coaching regimes of your club not frustrated you at any point in the past decade?

You're kidding right? At every point.

 

[E Shed]

Nah. Norf are too old.
Thompson, Firrito, Harvey, Petrie, Waite, Dal Santo, Wells, Grima, McMahon all 29+. Thats a huge part of the list.

That was actually the point of the comparison (Freo 2007 - North 2015).
Freo played finals in 2006 and topped up with a couple of older players going into 2007 and promptly fell off a cliff. At the end of 2007 Freo delisted about half the list and went deep in the draft picking up Hill, Suban, Ballantyne, Walters, Clarke, DeBoer and Clancee Pearce, all of whom are playing today.

As a mug punter from the outside it really does look as if Brad Scott is the problem. That and either their drafting hasn't been as good as it could have been or their development isn't working as well as it could.

 

[Shinboner '07]

Port can turn things around next year

North need a rebuild. I hope we don't make finals this year so we get a top pick

 

[Dirty_11]

That was actually the point of the comparison (Freo 2007 - North 2015).
Freo played finals in 2006 and topped up with a couple of older players going into 2007 and promptly fell off a cliff. At the end of 2007 Freo delisted about half the list and went deep in the draft picking up Hill, Suban, Ballantyne, Walters, Clarke, DeBoer and Clancee Pearce, all of whom are playing today.

As a mug punter from the outside it really does look as if Brad Scott is the problem. That and either their drafting hasn't been as good as it could have been or their development isn't working as well as it could.

That's about where it's at.

 

[Tas]

We are on the precipice, knowing the people in charge I am not optimistic that we will make the required changes so I am not optimistic that we will do what is required. We have too much of a boys club atmosphere at our club and we need a major shakeup from the top down.

JB should step down and allow Ben Buckley to replace him as chairman.
Buckley should end Scott's contract and with him clean out all the assistants.

End of 2015:
retire/de-list (irrespective of contract): Petrie, Waite, Firrito, Wells, Grima, Gibson, McMahon, Adams
trade: Swallow, possibly Thompson if there is any interest

End of 2016:
retire Dal Santo, Harvey

We need a major investment in youth that are pure midfielders, especially outside mids, most are not going to be any good but we need to clear out enough space to look at 10 mids this pre-season, cut the chaff and and then look at another bunch of mids at the end of 2016. We have recruited too many inside mids, too many flankers or utilities without the midfield nous.

I still think we have plenty of good talent, our coaching and development is horrid.

Even with all those players cut, we could still field a team as follows:

FF: Thomas Brown Turner
HF: Wood Black Higgins
C: McDonald Ziebell Atley
HB: MacMillan Hansen McKenzie
FB: Mullett Tarrant Wright
R: Goldstein Cunnington Dumont
I: Daw Jacobs (tagger) Bastinac Garner

If we fielded that team, I am not convinced we would play any worse now, but we definitely have a weakness in the middle, even with our current crap coach.

 

[Scotland]

Schulz is Port's only player 30 or older.

North have Wells, Dal Santo, Waite, Firrito, Petrie, Grima and Harvey. Their key forward stocks in a year or two will be Aaron Black, Ben Brown and Majak Daw.

2014 North B&F

1. Ben Cunnington 47 (24 - pretty good player)
2. Todd Goldstein 46* (27 - probably their best player)
3. Levi Greenwood 46* (26 - traded to Collingwood)
4. Brent Harvey 45* (37)
5. Drew Petrie 45* (33)
6. Nick Dal Santo 41 (30 - their best ball user)
7. Sam Gibson 40 (29 - good player but not a star)
8. Scott Thompson 35* (29 - gets found out isolated one on one)
9. Andrew Swallow 35* (28 - see Gibson)
10. Shaun Atley 35* (23 - hasn't really come on)

Compare that to Port

1. Robbie Gray – 398 votes (27, AA last season)
2. Travis Boak – 255 (27, AA last season and 2013)
3. Kane Cornes – 237 (now retired)
4. Justin Westhoff – 232 (29)
5. Matt Lobbe – 227 (26)
6. Jay Schulz, Ollie Wines – 220 (Schulz 30, Wines 21 and one of the highest rated players his age in the country)
8. Hamish Hartlett – 219 (25)
9. Chad Wingard – 208 (22, already AA)
10. Tom Jonas – 185 (24)

On top of that Port have Ebert, Trengove, Broadbent, Polec, Hombsch and a few other prospects in the 25 and under category.

 

[Power Raid]

Port have lost the plot with many theories but nothing you can confidently finger point. Personally I feel the squad was over-cooked in pre season, causing soft tissue injuries, osteo-pubis, shin splints, foot problems and other running related injuries. Not too mention the players are just too skinny after running off too much bulk.

Hopefully a revised training program in the off season will see the club deliver on last years promise.

 

[slimdusty4]

A lot of Collingwood and Richmond supporters up and about.

richmond might still sing the same song, at the same ground, and wear the same colours, but it doesn't take a genius to figure out, that this is a completely different football club.
since 2010 the club has gone from fitzroy to collingwood in terms of off field and financial performances, and on field they have gradually improved every year, in a sustainable manner, and look like they may make finals for 3 years in a row for the first time in 40? 50? years?

so for us, it feels like, if the list falls off, the club won't end up like it would've 10-20 years ago, because things are being looked after in the footy department, and in the board room. but this isn't about us.

north rely on the old guard too often, it seems it's always harvey petrie and co that lift them, and they've run their race, younger guys don't seem to have come on, and the recruitment of the two older guys last year, says they thought they were there, they weren't, and now they don't have levi anymore either.

port have way too many talented players, and a coach that commands their respect, and seems to get the best out of them, to not succeed. he just needs to figure out his plan/structure. if hardwick can do it, i will definitely back kenny in.

north should send wells off for a pick or a kid, and try and draft some youth whilst they have leaders like petrie and harvey to mould them, or risk ending up somewhat like melbourne. having 20 year old captains, no old heads, and 22 year olds being your veteran leaders, is no way to advance.

also sack scotty, i look forward to a world where journos don't cop the wrath of a coach because his team can't perform. first mick, then scott, just have to get rid of his brother.

 

[Lockyer24]

Port have a future but need to re-tool the bottom 5-6 in their best side to get back up again. Freo had a similar mini slide.

North are average and never were that good. I don't think they will turn into a flaming wreck as they have a solid base of early 20 somethings, but won't be Top 4 anytime soon.

 

[MeisterBot]

A lot of people are talking about Port being found out, but a lot of that has to do with them losing their two midfield runners in Polec and White. Like everyone knows Hawthorn will try to pick you apart with hard leads and precision short kicks on transition, but they're just too talented and well drilled to stop most of the time. Just because you know how to stop them, doesn't mean you're capable of doing so. Restricting Port's midfield run is much easier when their most damaging runners aren't playing. This list also seems to feel small in the middle too. I can't quite put my finger on it and it confuses me because on paper they have Wines, Boak and Ebert, but their midfield brigade isn't particularly strong on the inside.

I also feel that their bottom 5-6 are a real liability for any team wanting to challenge and I'm not sure how much longer Schulz can continue being their key forward.

That said, with the age profile of their list, they have plenty of time to correct for errors and balance their list. I'd back them in to be successful in the years to come.

As for North, the problem with North (imv) isn't necessarily with the old age profile of the list (likes of Waite, Petrie and Harvey retiring won't effect them as much as people might think). To me, their biggest issue is that they have a glut of players who are in the prime of their careers and not really delivering on their potential. Not bad enough that you wonder how they get a game (Gibson and Firrito aside), but lack consistency and encompass the notion of vanilla. Tarrant, Hansen, Jacobs, Macmillan, Cunnington, Swallow, Bastinac, Atley, etc. In the end, they've failed to reach their ceiling or at least develop consistency as a group. If North Melbourne are to rebuild (and they should), they need to make Ziebell captain, clear out the dead wood and go gung ho for picks and hope their recruiters nail them. And when I say dead wood, I'm including Brad Scott. Because it's clear that this core group of players failed to develop properly on his watch.

 

[Whiskers]

I'm not sure many people, other than maybe North supporters, really thought that North were on the precipice of proving themselves as legitimate challengers in 2015.

Port yes, North no. They were smashed in the preliminary final and I don't think anyone expected any other result

Just going to quote this to save myself the trouble of typing it.
A free ride to a prelim last year, Essendon and my side was cooked but suddenly 'top 4'
I was raving on about it in the off season, it hurt my head people rating North, but good luck to them, I would support them over the actual flag chances.
I thought Port would have a plan B.

 

[Damon_3388]

I completely agree with your second paragraph though. We have a lot of players in the 20-24 age group that seem to have hit a far lower ceiling than many anticipated.

I think people expected that Cunnington/Ziebell/Bastinac group to be a lot further along now than they are, and really leading the way for the Roos and being in that borderline "elite" bracket by now. They each bizarrely appear to have peaked at 22 years old back in 2013, and have regressed since.

 

[Damon_3388]

I can't quite put my finger on it and it confuses me because on paper they have Wines, Boak and Ebert, but their midfield brigade isn't particularly strong on the inside.

Ebert is a good tackler, but he's not a particularly strong inside clearance player, at least statistically. That could be as much to do with opportunity as ability, though. Gray, Boak and Wines are their main clearance winners, and are fine at that. I really do think they are missing that outside run from Polec and White, because it seems like things are breaking down in transition and their delivery into the forward line, not at stoppages per se. Even guys like Pittard and Broadbent aren't running and driving forward as much this year as in 2014; Both have seen their running bounce numbers drop significantly, as well as being slightly lower in the Rebound 50 count too.

 

[kangaspurs]

I think people expected that Cunnington/Ziebell/Bastinac group to be a lot further along now than they are, and really leading the way for the Roos and being in that borderline "elite" bracket by now. They each bizarrely appear to have peaked at 22 years old back in 2013, and have regressed since.

I agree with you on Ziebell and Bastinac, and would include Black in that list as well. The same doesn't apply to Cunnington; although he hasn't been as good this year as he was last year when he won the BnF, he's still on a generally upward trend and should consistently end up in the top 50 AFL players at the very least.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

List managers from other clubs will be in touch with the management of several North players, if not already.

The window looks to have been slammed shut, and with a number of key players near the end I won't be at all surprised to see a couple of the younger crew with 3-5 years left, jump ship.