Redo the First Round of the 2008 Draft

[Monkey King]

Nothing Yarran has done comes close to Zaha's 2011 season. Kicking 30 goals and averaging 20 touches are bordering elite.

I don't agree with this. Yarran's 2011 was more impressive than Zaha's. No point playing the disposals game, as Yarran had pretty much the same amount of effective disposals and even kicked 8 goals to boot from defense, where he was elite for ball retention among the leagues best for metres gained; all while being tagged every other week. Hell, even the year before Yaz kicked 19 goals from 16 games at just 0.2 less p/game than Zaha's 2011 and Yaz was deemed to have had a s**t season. Talk about results! I'd take Yaz for both results & potential thanks very much.

 

[Dwight Schrute]

I don't agree with this. Yarran's 2011 was more impressive than Zaha's. No point playing the disposals game, as Yarran had pretty much the same amount of effective disposals and even kicked 8 goals to boot from defense, where he was elite for ball retention among the leagues best for metres gained; all while being tagged every other week. Hell, even the year before Yaz kicked 19 goals from 16 games at just 0.2 less p/game than Zaha's 2011 and Yaz was deemed to have had a s**t season. Talk about results! I'd take Yaz for both results & potential thanks very much.

No way Yarrans 2011 was as good as Zaharakis'. Zaharakis kicked 31 goals playing in the midfield and spending some time in the forward line, he also averaged 20 possessions, even when taking into account the fact the he only avered 0.6 more effective possessions he still had a better year.

As for the year Yarran played in the forward line, that is different as he was playing primarily as a small forward, and even then he still didn't average more goals.

 

[Monkey King]

No way Yarrans 2011 was as good as Zaharakis'. Zaharakis kicked 31 goals playing in the midfield and spending some time in the forward line, he also averaged 20 possessions, even when taking into account the fact the he only avered 0.6 more effective possessions he still had a better year.

Nope. I don't agree. Not saying Zaha is s**t or anything, but Yaz's 2011 was one out of the box and key indicators like metres and gained and ball retention over metres gained had him right up there with the best in the league. Of course Zaha kicked more goals, he had forward game-time whereas Yaz had none; just like Yaz rebounded from defense more and had more 1%'ers tackles etc. He only averaged one more goal p/game than Yaz anyway.

As for the year Yarran played in the forward line, that is different as he was playing primarily as a small forward, and even then he still didn't average more goals.

He averaged just 0.2 less and it was considered a s**t year for Yarran.

 

[Dwight Schrute]

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree then.

 

[erbenz]

Shiels 64 Games
Schoenmakers 60 games
Breust 41 games
Savage 41 games

All four players played in the GF. We didn't do the best out of all the teams in that draft obviously, but I'm really happy with those four players and how they have developed as players so far. The Brisbane Lions did an outstanding job in that Draft they did the best, the Eagles did well too.

Looking at that, the Hawks did really bloody well; Breust, Savage and Shiels have all shown they can play a variety of roles too.

Schoenmakers is developing well for a KPD. Still needs more time, but he's gaining in confidence every year.

 

[Hollow Knight]

In some respects Rich did have a better season, he improved upon his 2011 impact by 20% while Rockliff fell by nearly 25% from 2011. So by all accounts, Rich had a better year than Rockliff in the context of their individual performance. But in the collective context of impact on games, Rockliff still influenced more results than Rich in 2012.

This is a well known cognitive bias, whereby people's expectations influence the way they view the outcome. However, when you look at the data, something completely different is going on.

Interesting theory... but no, Rich simply had a better season. Rockliff was stranded in the forward line with busted groins for the second half of the year.

Only a suspension cost Rich the b&f.

May I advance my own theory... You put way too much faith in "data".

 

[WWSD]

Looking at that, the Hawks did really bloody well; Breust, Savage and Shiels have all shown they can play a variety of roles too.

Schoenmakers is developing well for a KPD. Still needs more time, but he's gaining in confidence every year.

We did and all those players like you said can play in different positions which is good. You guys should be rapt with Shuey, Natanui, Smith from that draft. Two gems all ready. I reckon Ash Smith will also be a good back pocket run with player.

 

[WWSD]

Interesting theory... but no, Rich simply had a better season. Rockliff was stranded in the forward line with busted groins for the second half of the year.

Only a suspension cost Rich the b&f.

May I advance my own theory... You put way too much faith in "data".

Give us Rich, Rockliff and Redden, that way our on ball brigade all start with the letter R, with Big Rough in the ruck.

 

[butters86]

i cant believe no one rates vickery on this thread! he buggered hes shoulder in the nab cup but we kept playing him! in 2011 he kicked 36 goals including a couple of hauls of 5! not bad for 21yr old ruckman/fwd! i'll have him pick 8 again anyday of the week! for the record if he get hes body right i think hamish harlett will be the best player out of the draft in 5 yrs time!

 

[butters86]

Oh, I would call Zaharakis a midfielder than just a half forward, I think assuming Zaharakis plays half forward ignores the fact that he often plays in the middle.

he reminds me of nathan brown for some reason

 

[Daz]

In some respects Rich did have a better season, he improved upon his 2011 impact by 20% while Rockliff fell by nearly 25% from 2011. So by all accounts, Rich had a better year than Rockliff in the context of their individual performance. But in the collective context of impact on games, Rockliff still influenced more results than Rich in 2012.

This is a well known cognitive bias, whereby people's expectations influence the way they view the outcome. However, when you look at the data, something completely different is going on.

Ah no. Rich had a far better year and is a slightly better player. I'd prefer 20 Rich disposals to 25 Rockliff disposals (or even 30).

Rich's last game of the season was something special. There aren't many players in the league capable of what he did.

 

[Ambrosia]

i cant believe no one rates vickery on this thread! he buggered hes shoulder in the nab cup but we kept playing him! in 2011 he kicked 36 goals including a couple of hauls of 5! not bad for 21yr old ruckman/fwd! i'll have him pick 8 again anyday of the week! for the record if he get hes body right i think hamish harlett will be the best player out of the draft in 5 yrs time!

Vickery would have had to be confined to a wheel chair to excuse his woeful performances early in the season.

 

[Richo83]

i cant believe no one rates vickery on this thread! he buggered hes shoulder in the nab cup but we kept playing him! in 2011 he kicked 36 goals including a couple of hauls of 5! not bad for 21yr old ruckman/fwd! i'll have him pick 8 again anyday of the week! for the record if he get hes body right i think hamish harlett will be the best player out of the draft in 5 yrs time!

I'm happy to let Vickery be ignored, given he only had one good year and he is down on albi's rankings for a very good reason. That said, you're right, I think Richmond would still draft Vickery as he can play second tall/ruck pretty well, which is impressive for a big guy. He's the closest Richmond has had to Ottens for a while and that's a handy thing. It's Post which was the disappointment, instead of one of the many midfielders who went late Richmond picked Post.

 

[Richo83]

Vickery would have had to be confined to a wheel chair to excuse his woeful performances early in the season.

He's a KPP coming off a soldier surgery and and the fact that I'm pretty sure he did actually re-injure something early in the season. I think there's enough there to suggest that he's a legitimate top ten pick.

 

[Ambrosia]

He's a KPP coming off a soldier surgery and and the fact that I'm pretty sure he did actually re-injure something early in the season. I think there's enough there to suggest that he's a legitimate top ten pick.

He was getting Izzy Falou type numbers.

 

[Slattery_20]

Possession counts are lame. For example last year Yarran was elite in measurements like ball retention over metres-gained, which outstrips simply getting a possession; to couple that stat, last year Yaz also had just 0.6 less effective disposals than Zaharakis overall. Which shows Yaz was far better with the ball in hand. Yarran also gets tagged every other week as a running defender, which speaks volumes in itself for the esteem his damaging game is held in by coaches. Not going to bother with this years stats, as Yaz played half his games injured and was subbed in and out in a few of them, making the averages almost meaningless.

With a more in-depth analysis, I struggle to see how Zaharakis is easily ahead of Yarran at this stage and with Yaz nearly one whole year younger, it's no wonder so many are still rating him the better of the two.

Ignore the first two years, and the last one, and call it 'more in-depth, and yes, Yarran is as good as virtually any of these kids - no doubt.

Zaharakis certainly doesn't have the dual-sided ness of Yarran, not quite as slick, but a far better contested footballer (yes, that matters) which makes him far more consistent, he not only mixes it in the middle but really adds something, and he's strong overhead, and always a threat for goals. Plenty to like.

 

[Slattery_20]

He's a KPP coming off a soldier surgery and and the fact that I'm pretty sure he did actually re-injure something early in the season.

He did not look like right, did he?
Shows how well Hurley's done to actually play at least some sort of useful role, while battling a broken foot and a bung wrist for more than 2 years (and the odd hammie thrown in for good measure)

I think there's enough there to suggest that he's a legitimate top ten pick.

Again, like Yarran, there's enough there to comfortably say the guy can play, but being 'legitimate' top ten means you're beating out a whole host of guys who've had 2-3 strong seasons, on the back of just 1 season.

I'm not sure Yarran does, nor Vickery.
Both can get there, with more form behind them.

 

[Monkey King]

Ignore the first two years, and the last one, and call it 'more in-depth, and yes, Yarran is as good as virtually any of these kids - no doubt.

Ridiculous to suggest I'm ignoring those seasons. I just advocate that they're taken for what they were. Yaz is a year younger and basically didn't even play in his first year. To assess that in-depth, you take that for the value it represents, which is not face-value. In his second season, he wasn't outperformed by Zaha either, kicking 19 goals from 16 games at a better average than Zaha and was deemed to have had a s**t season; basically his first at AFL level. This year, he played half his games injured and was subbed on-off in at least 3 of them. An in-depth assessment of that means you don't just look at end-of-year stats averages and say "hey one was better than the other by virtue of this" while not accounting for what actually transpired. In Zaha's best season, I'd claim Yarran outperformed him for the reasons I've already stated as was the point being contended in that post you quoted.

Zaharakis certainly doesn't have the dual-sided ness of Yarran, not quite as slick, but a far better contested footballer (yes, that matters) which makes him far more consistent, he not only mixes it in the middle but really adds something, and he's strong overhead, and always a threat for goals. Plenty to like.

I like Zaha and think he represents great value of the pick you got him at. Should be very happy. As I've said, please don't think I'm saying anything other I'd rate Yarran higher. Zaha's a better contested footballer, but Yarran blows him away in the "Andrew Mcleod" stakes, while not being inept in contested situations either and having a better defensive side to his game overall (yes all this matters too).

 

[Slattery_20]

Ridiculous to suggest I'm ignoring those seasons. I just advocate that they're taken for what they were. Yaz is a year younger and basically didn't even play in his first year. To assess that in-depth, you take that for the value it represents, which is not face-value. In his second season, he wasn't outperformed by Zaha either, kicking 19 goals from 16 games at a better average than Zaha and was deemed to have had a s**t season; basically his first at AFL level. This year, he played half his games injured and was subbed on-off in at least 3 of them. An in-depth assessment of that means you don't just look at end-of-year stats averages and say "hey one was better than the other by virtue of this" while not accounting for what actually transpired.

Only playing 3-4 games represents that he wasn't regarded as good enough to get a gig over Houlihan, Fisher, et al, let alone be discussed vs the kids who had 10+ games & big impacts.

I like Zaha and think he represents great value of the pick you got him at. Should be very happy. As I've said, please don't think I'm saying anything other I'd rate Yarran higher.

You're allowed to rate him higher, I'm just pointing out that your argument doesn't rest on a particularly strong footing, in terms of consistent form.

Zaha's a better contested footballer, but Yarran blows him away in the "Andrew Mcleod" stakes, while not being inept in contested situations either and having a better defensive side to his game overall (yes all this matters too).

FWIW, McLeod had 1 or 2 norm smiths by end of his 4th year. And playing midfield. He only went to the flank after he was past his best.
Yarran took 3 years to find a spot and still hasn't been seen near the midfield very often.
Hardly comparable, other than in the most (IMHO quite pathetically) shallow way possible.

 

[Monkey King]

Only playing 3-4 games represents that he wasn't regarded as good enough to get a gig over Houlihan, Fisher, et al, let alone be discussed vs the kids who had 10+ games & big impacts.

As I said, a year younger than Zaha, who was playing TAC at that age. Still, in the handful of games Yaz did play, he actually averaged similar goal returns than Zaha. Big impacts? Hands on snakey if you ask me. As for Fisher and Houlihan, you're comparing a seasoned player, one of the best pound-for-pound marks the club's had for a decade, with a skinny 18yo indigenous goal sneak? And you accuse inconsistency? FMD LOL!!!

I'm not sure how much more consistent it can get. Yarran tracks a year younger than Zaha and comes statistically close in every single season they've played. In Zaha's best season to date, Yarran was better. Not sure how this precludes him from being rated better. And that's probably why you find many do rate Yarran better; nothing strange or inconsistent about it.

Yarran took 3 years to find a spot and still hasn't been seen near the midfield very often.
Hardly comparable, other than in the most (IMHO quite pathetically) shallow way possible.

Actually, McLeod came off a HBF in one of his heroic GF's if you'd paid attention mate. Wasn't an end of career move for him. Terrific effort in missing the point though. You said Zaha was better inside which I agree with. My McLeod comparison was not the tracking of careers (Yaz is about the age now that Macca was when he won his first NS btw), but the style of outside running play. Not sure why you have trouble conceding the obvious.

Meanwhile it only took two years for Yaz to find a consistent spot in the team, not three years. It was in his third year he was tearing it up. And so what? A year younger than Zaha, an indigenous boy moving over to the other side of the country, a lad who has still tracked as well as Zaha despite what you claim against him; kicking 19 goals in his second year ... what is wrong with that? You're trying to down-talk Yarran but you've got to leave out a lot of stuff before it even makes sense.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Jesus, the Yarran/Zaharakis merry go round argument is still going. Any chance of an "agree to disagree" accord being reached? It's kinda ruining the thread.

 

[Hard_to_Beat]

Jesus, the Yarran/Zaharakis merry go round argument is still going. Any chance of an "agree to disagree" accord being reached? It's kinda ruining the thread.

It's still a bit early to be rating the natural footballer/KPP types from this draft.

The more athletic types tend to get overrated early.

 

[The Prosecutor]

I'm not sure how much more consistent it can get. Yarran tracks a year younger than Zaha and comes statistically close in every single season they've played. In Zaha's best season to date, Yarran was better. Not sure how this precludes him from being rated better. And that's probably why you find many do rate Yarran better; nothing strange or inconsistent about it.

Wait, you're saying Yarran was better than Zaharakis in 2011?

 

[Browne Eye]

Get this thread back on track.

Pick 1-Melbourne- Nic Naitanui
Pick 2-West Coast- Dayne Beams
Pick 3- Fremantle- Stephen Hill
Pick 4- Port Adelaide- Michael Hurley
Pick 5- Essendon- Luke Shuey
Pick 6- Carlton- Chris Yarran
Pick 7- Brisbane- Daniel Rich
Pick 8- Richmond- Hamish Hartlett
Pick 9- North Melbourne- Rory Sloane
Pick 10- Adelaide- Jack Ziebell
Pick 11- Collingwood- Daniel Hanneberry
Pick 12- Sydney- Steele Sidebottom
Pick 13- St. Kilda- David Zaharakis
Pick 14- Western Bulldogs- Matt Suckling
Pick 15- Geelong- Jack Redden
Pick 16- Hawthorn- Ryan Shoenmakers

 

[Slattery_20]

Wait, you're saying Yarran was better than Zaharakis in 2011?

He was pretty darn good in 2011.

Jesus, the Yarran/Zaharakis merry go round argument is still going. Any chance of an "agree to disagree" accord being reached? It's kinda ruining the thread.

Yeah seems the smart move.