Skippos's Final 2014 Phantom Draft

[Skippos]

Another update done Order has been updated to reflect the goings on of trade week and as such there have been a few bolters and sliders.

Power Rankings
Phantom Draft

As always happy to answer questions or discuss anything

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Will give it a good read later on tonight, but you've cooled on Wright quite a bit. Any particular reason?

 

[Skippos]

Will give it a good read later on tonight, but you've cooled on Wright quite a bit. Any particular reason?

Mixture of a few things. I got really excited by Wright early in the season and really jumped on the bandwagon. As such I feel I gave him too much opportunity and chances and looked at him with a little bit rose coloured glasses. In short I was a little biased. This stuff is about identifying your own biases and cutting them out, and eventually I clicked on to that when I was going through footage and re-evaluating things.

He just hasn't dominated to the extent that I'd want a top tier KPF to dominate at this level. When KM mentioned him being a 1/10 chance at taking a grab the moment he got contact I started looking for it too and he was right - it's not a good sign at this level.

I still think he's a top prospect and rate him - I just don't think he's as elite as I once did.

 

[rumoursofwinter]

This really is a brilliant read. It's a shame that Port doesn't have a pick till late in the draft, because most of the profiles will be redundant from our point of view. I think that McLaren and Miles sound like good fits for Port. It is incredibly likely that Port will be picking a ruck late in the draft. Do you have a preference to Baulderstone, Read or Darcy Cameron? (or Pittonet) I am also interested in Cory Gregson. He sounds like a natural footballer. Cheers and thanks for your efforts.

 

[Clems Knee]

I just wanted to say I liked reading your phantom draft. The profiles read as very balanced and realistic as to the prospects of the potential draftees. Thanks very much.

 

[PowerDrafter]

This is a ripping effort, one of the better reads I've had, just a few quiries over Pickett and Durdin moving interstate, think West Coast and Adelaide will have them in the bag as has been the case in past drafts that top kids tend to stay in their states other than that, spot on!

 

[MightyDons4]

Duggan a big slider compared to other phantoms, any reason?

 

[Silvagnis]

Why did you pick Ellis over Duggan?

Your rankings are a tad contradictory if Ellis is "real bust potential" and Duggan a potential mid-level player who could be a vital cog in a team. Like the sound of both, but Duggan could be a safer bet.

VW might have more size, leadership and string to his bow than the half backs who could be around at 28. We don't want another Temay or McInnes who were arguably vanilla. Or a Bootsma who wasn't a leader like VW. Inexact science with Dumont and Temay rated for their character and/or work ethic.

 

[Skippos]

This really is a brilliant read. It's a shame that Port doesn't have a pick till late in the draft, because most of the profiles will be redundant from our point of view. I think that McLaren and Miles sound like good fits for Port. It is incredibly likely that Port will be picking a ruck late in the draft. Do you have a preference to Baulderstone, Read or Darcy Cameron? (or Pittonet) I am also interested in Cory Gregson. He sounds like a natural footballer. Cheers and thanks for your efforts.

Appreciate the kind words. I agree that you'll be looking at a ruck. Sam Baulderstone is probably more likely upon thinking about it and Pittonet is someone I think might just be a rookie draft prospect. My next update should reflect that. With Baulderstone he's already got a few runs on the board excelling at state league level and showing some real year to year improvement. The development of rucks is a bit hard to pick at times so I'd probably be looking towards the mature aged player who's shown a bit more ability thus far. With Gregson he's definitely someone I like and probably should go in the ND I just couldn't find a slot for him in this run through.

Duggan a big slider compared to other phantoms, any reason?

No real reason - I like him (though I do feel like something just might be missing a bit) but I just couldn't find a pick for him until later. He was at 26 in my last update so he's moved up. Duggan started the year as a top 10 prospect but by mid season plenty had him in the 20s. His rise of late I think has been more to do with people valuing the midfielders a bit more and less about him banging the door down.

Don't get me wrong, I think he'll probably go top 15-20, just when running through it I couldn't find a pick where I thought he'd have been the best list fit.

Why did you pick Ellis over Duggan?

Your rankings are a tad contradictory if Ellis is "real bust potential" and Duggan a potential mid-level player who could be a vital cog in a team. Like the sound of both, but Duggan could be a safer bet.

VW might have more size, leadership and string to his bow than the half backs who could be around at 28. We don't want another Temay or McInnes who were vanilla. Or a Bootsma who wasn't a leader like VW.

Yeah if I were picking for Carlton I'd be picking Duggan but this isn't as much about who I think they *should* pick but more who I think is likely to be picked at that selection. I could see Carlton going the way of Ellis if he was there - not that I'd advise it.

Yeah I think VW would be a solid bet for you guys. With the failing of Temay/McInnes/Bootsma I reckon there's a spot for a disciplined type defender so he's a logical fit. Looks a solid bet for mine.

 

[Bulldogsnm1]

Appreciate the kind words. I agree that you'll be looking at a ruck. Sam Baulderstone is probably more likely upon thinking about it and Pittonet is someone I think might just be a rookie draft prospect. My next update should reflect that. With Baulderstone he's already got a few runs on the board excelling at state league level and showing some real year to year improvement. The development of rucks is a bit hard to pick at times so I'd probably be looking towards the mature aged player who's shown a bit more ability thus far. With Gregson he's definitely someone I like and probably should go in the ND I just couldn't find a slot for him in this run through.



No real reason - I like him (though I do feel like something just might be missing a bit) but I just couldn't find a pick for him until later. He was at 26 in my last update so he's moved up. Duggan started the year as a top 10 prospect but by mid season plenty had him in the 20s. His rise of late I think has been more to do with people valuing the midfielders a bit more and less about him banging the door down.

Don't get me wrong, I think he'll probably go top 15-20, just when running through it I couldn't find a pick where I thought he'd have been the best list fit.



Yeah if I were picking for Carlton I'd be picking Duggan but this isn't as much about who I think they *should* pick but more who I think is likely to be picked at that selection. I could see Carlton going the way of Ellis if he was there - not that I'd advise it.

Yeah I think VW would be a solid bet for you guys. With the failing of Temay/McInnes/Bootsma I reckon there's a spot for a disciplined type defender so he's a logical fit. Looks a solid bet for mine.

On the 3 Jets boys, Ellis, Duggan & Menadue, all 3 are comfortable playing a HBF or BP roles, watching them last year as under age players each of them played back a good deal. Menadue in particular played very defensively often as the deepest back. Even this year he has played back on players such as De Goey, Lamb & Cavka at different stages. Thats why looking at disposals doesn't tell the full story. Ellis & Duggan were often played as the high rebounding backs where their left foot kicking was used to full advantage. However their primary role was still to stop their opponents.

You can actually add Viojo-Rainbow & Payne to the list as Jets players who have played roles down back.
Laverde is the only one who really hasn't shown any signs of playing a defensive role, he just has too much attacking flair, not that it is a bad thing.

So my point is, they are not one trick ponies, in fact I would assume a player like Ellis would be given mid field run with roles in his development years and Duggan & Menadue would both play back on small & medium forwards.

I don't think any of them are all or bust type selections. Each have a deal of versatility.

 

[Skippos]

On the 3 Jets boys, Ellis, Duggan & Menadue, all 3 are comfortable playing a HBF or BP roles, watching them last year as under age players each of them played back a good deal. Menadue in particular played very defensively often as the deepest back. Even this year he has played back on players such as De Goey, Lamb & Cavka at different stages. Thats why looking at disposals doesn't tell the full story. Ellis & Duggan were often played as the high rebounding backs where their left foot kicking was used to full advantage. However their primary role was still to stop their opponents.

You can actually add Viojo-Rainbow & Payne to the list as Jets players who have played roles down back.
Laverde is the only one who really hasn't shown any signs of playing a defensive role, he just has too much attacking flair, not that it is a bad thing.

So my point is, they are not one trick ponies, in fact I would assume a player like Ellis would be given mid field run with roles in his development years and Duggan & Menadue would both play back on small & medium forwards.

I don't think any of them are all or bust type selections. Each have a deal of versatility.

I'm not denying anything you've said, but I don't think the implication that having versatility means you're a safe bet.

At the end of the day there are plenty of busts every draft. If I projected every player to be fantastic and only covered the best case scenario it'd be a pretty shitty phantom. I'm trying to identify which draftees have the most risk and by virtue of being outsiders most of those blokes do.

 

[Tex200]

This is a ripping effort, one of the better reads I've had, just a few quiries over Pickett and Durdin moving interstate, think West Coast and Adelaide will have them in the bag as has been the case in past drafts that top kids tend to stay in their states other than that, spot on!

Skippos

Just further to this post, could it be we were ok with the 10-14 slide because We know Durdin will slide - maybe interviewed badly re not wanting to move?

Been racking my brain to come up with a plausible explanation as to why we were so blasé

 

[Skippos]

Skippos

Just further to this post, could it be we were ok with the 10-14 slide because We know Durdin will slide - maybe interviewed badly re not wanting to move?

Been racking my brain to come up with a plausible explanation as to why we were so blasé

Yeah I too have no idea. Perhaps it's that simple. Or perhaps it's a case of our recruiters rating a bloke most rate in the 20s in the top 10. Whatever the reason is, I'll be eager to see it on draft night. Hopefully it's a masterstroke.

 

[Tex200]

Yeah I too have no idea. Perhaps it's that simple. Or perhaps it's a case of our recruiters rating a bloke most rate in the 20s in the top 10. Whatever the reason is, I'll be eager to see it on draft night. Hopefully it's a masterstroke.

Well yeah that's the only other theory - someone like a Menadue, Garlett or Cockatoo that they were certain would be available

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Yeah if I were picking for Carlton I'd be picking Duggan but this isn't as much about who I think they *should* pick but more who I think is likely to be picked at that selection.

Wouldn't mind a run-through of the first round with who you think each team should pick if you get the chance.

 

[TerryWallet]

Really good read Skipposs. Thanks.

I love how you summarise the draftees harshly but realistically. That is not to say i don't like the other phantoms which tend to be more positive. Because they are done earlier, they are getting names out there for people to peruse and evaluate for themselves.

All phantoms are a good read, but i really enjoyed this effort and harsh approach at this particular stage.

 

[SugarCoat]

Interesting that according to the power rankings, Moore is the most highly rated KPF.

 

[redandblack]

Thanks, Skippos, really good read.

What are your thoughts on Brett Turner?

Draft or rookie chance?

 

[Skippos]

Wouldn't mind a run-through of the first round with who you think each team should pick if you get the chance.

StK: Petracca. Can't deny class and he's the best available. Despite the need for a KPF I'd still be going Petracca as he's that much better than McCartin and all.
Melbourne: Brayshaw - best available and fits a need, McCartin: While similar in dimensions to Hogan he's a very traditional FF while Hogan roams up field. They should be able to work well together.
GWS: I'd be looking towards filling needs and raw upside with their picks. Safe bets meh, they've got enough list depth now just need to add the elites. I'd look at one or two of Goddard/Durdin/Lever with 4/6/7 and then also the Laverde/Cockatoo/Pickett/Menadue types who have that really nice ceiling. Wright if available might be worth it too.
Collingwood: Need size through the middle and effective disposal by foot. Weller offers one, Laverde another. I'd be looking to Laverde.
Gold Coast: Like GWS, needs and upside. Cockatoo, Weller, Pickett, Menadue types. If a KPF slips, pounce. Lever or Goddard mightn't be a bad bet either.
Geelong: Pace to replace what they've lost. Pickett/Cockatoo/Laverde if they're there. Perhaps a KPD but I'd be looking at speed.
West Coast: Midfielders. Inside or outside it doesn't really matter (though I'd prefer outside). Blakely/Pickett/Weller/Cockatoo is who I'd look at. De Goey a smokey
Richmond: Midfielders. I think they could use some outside pace but also think they could use some inside grunt. Blakely a smokey but DeGoey/Pickett/Cockatoo/Ahern the main ones. Perhaps a Goddard/Durdin KPD
Fremantle: Tough, I think they've got enough developing KPPs on their list and rate Pearce/Smith as KPDs so I'd be looking midfielders. De Goey seems a very fremantle player. Lamb a smoky
Adelaide: KPDs (Goddard/Durdin) or outside run (Pickett/Menadue/Cockatoo)
GC: Upside again/best available. Lamb perhaps?
North: Best available. I'd be going Blakely
Essendon: Inside mids and a second KPF are pressing needs. Might have to bolt to get the IM if Blakely's gone.
Hawthorn: Inside mids too IMO.

Thanks, Skippos, really good read.

What are your thoughts on Brett Turner?

Draft or rookie chance?

I like Turner but he's a bit of a strange one. Has the abilities and talent and he's not a midget either but he's just not sold me. I guess when you only scrape in to the crop by a few days it's expected that you're gonna be a bit bigger and better and more developed and he hasn't set the world alight. I'd have liked to see him reach a higher level at Wests or get more involved in the State team. I think he might be able to get to the level required but at this stage I wouldn't be using even a rookie pick on him unfortunately.

 

[Scham]

If Freo want a midfielder and you're saying Blakely could be best available at 16, wouldn't it stand to reason that we'd take him at 13? Are De Goey and Lamb that much better than Blakely? The "go home factor" would be taken into consideration also I would've thought, so they'd need to be MUCH better?

 

[Zyzzz]

I would have to say there is little to no chance the Saints will take R.McKenzie and M.Hammelmann in this draft.. We have no CHB atm and got rid of R.Stanley to give Spencer White a crack at FF, we will surely take a KPB but I love Duggan at 22 it would be amazing if he slides that far!!

 

[MightyDons4]

StK: Petracca. Can't deny class and he's the best available. Despite the need for a KPF I'd still be going Petracca as he's that much better than McCartin and all.
Melbourne: Brayshaw - best available and fits a need, McCartin: While similar in dimensions to Hogan he's a very traditional FF while Hogan roams up field. They should be able to work well together.
GWS: I'd be looking towards filling needs and raw upside with their picks. Safe bets meh, they've got enough list depth now just need to add the elites. I'd look at one or two of Goddard/Durdin/Lever with 4/6/7 and then also the Laverde/Cockatoo/Pickett/Menadue types who have that really nice ceiling. Wright if available might be worth it too.
Collingwood: Need size through the middle and effective disposal by foot. Weller offers one, Laverde another. I'd be looking to Laverde.
Gold Coast: Like GWS, needs and upside. Cockatoo, Weller, Pickett, Menadue types. If a KPF slips, pounce. Lever or Goddard mightn't be a bad bet either.
Geelong: Pace to replace what they've lost. Pickett/Cockatoo/Laverde if they're there. Perhaps a KPD but I'd be looking at speed.
West Coast: Midfielders. Inside or outside it doesn't really matter (though I'd prefer outside). Blakely/Pickett/Weller/Cockatoo is who I'd look at. De Goey a smokey
Richmond: Midfielders. I think they could use some outside pace but also think they could use some inside grunt. Blakely a smokey but DeGoey/Pickett/Cockatoo/Ahern the main ones. Perhaps a Goddard/Durdin KPD
Fremantle: Tough, I think they've got enough developing KPPs on their list and rate Pearce/Smith as KPDs so I'd be looking midfielders. De Goey seems a very fremantle player. Lamb a smoky
Adelaide: KPDs (Goddard/Durdin) or outside run (Pickett/Menadue/Cockatoo)
GC: Upside again/best available. Lamb perhaps?
North: Best available. I'd be going Blakely
Essendon: Inside mids and a second KPF are pressing needs. Might have to bolt to get the IM if Blakely's gone.
Hawthorn: Inside mids too IMO.

Watson, Aylett, O'Brien, Howlett, Hocking, Melksham, Kavanagh, Heppell, Hams and Myers are all inside mids on our list so I think we're good for that position. Another KPF is a need, but I don't really like the look of Reece Mckenzie and there's no other KPF worth considering at 17 or 20. 17 should definitely be spent on someone with an versatility and an outside game (inside as well is a bonus) such as Garlett, Cockatoo, Ellis, Lamb, Duggan, De Goey or Menadue whilst 20 could be used for best available, Mckenzie or another outside mid.

 

[LemmingMaster]

That is an amazing list of inside mids...

 

[MightyDons4]

That is an amazing list of inside mids...

You're right they've got nothing on Tom Bell or Nick Graham

 

[Yoda_]

Peter Bampton a slight upgrade as Matt DeBoer?