The Curse of the First Pick

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chinggis77

Club Legend
May 14, 2008
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Fremantle
Like the Curse of the Great Bambino, or the Curse of Norm Smith, I believe we have our own curse here at Fremantle. It belongs to our No 1 pick in the draft.

Someone stepped on a cat, whilst walking under a ladder on Friday the 13th somewhere in our history.

Just have a look at the sorry history of the first pick.

1994: Pick 1 Jeff White - ran away as soon as he could
1995: Pick 1 Clive Waterhouse - showed promise before ACL/knee imploded ending his career early shortly after breaking out in 1999.
1996: Pick 12 Heath Black - showed promise before being traded. Contracted immobilious fattus syndrome and got depression
1997: Pick 6 James Walker - 151 games but I am sure he has suffered some terrible personal tragedy that we are not aware of.
1998: Pick 2 Justin Longmuir - showed promise before career died due to a chronic knee injury
1999: Pick 2 Paul Haselby - an anomaly. Did we sacrifice someone to the gods this year?
2000: Pick 6 (plus 37 and Sinclair) traded to North for Peter Bell who was cut by Fremantle in 1995. I.e. we paid our first pick for someone who should of been on our list anyway.
2001: Pick 1, 20, 36 for Croad and McPharlin (Luke Hodge/Mitchell taken by Hawks). Mchparlin makes this okay. However this trade makes Freo a laughing stock after Hodge/Mitchell lead the Hawks to premierships. Croad does little at Fremantle. The curse gets to him. Gets homesick. Asks for a trade back. Freo trades him for Pick 10 (Ryley Dunn). With the curse lifted Croad wins All-Australian selection for Hawthorn and wins a premiership.
2002: Pick 3 and 19 for Des Headland. Two first round picks paid for someone who never lived up to being a first round pick.
2003: Pick 10 Ryley Dunn - injury after injury. Played 8 games. 8.
2004: Pick 11, 27, 45 for Josh Carr who left us after a few years for a bag of chips.
2005: Pick 10 Marcus Drum - injuries including a detached retina ended his career. Drum´s career was possibly a side effect of the Haselby anomaly in 1999. Also suffered numerous hamstring, ankle injuries plus an irregular heartbeat (risk of death through playing!) and a smashed nose.
2006: Pick 13, 73 and Polak traded to Richmond for Pick 8 and 42. Pick 8 and Medhurst to Collingwood for Tarrant. Pick 13 ended up being Jack Riewoldt. Pick 8 ended up being Ben Reid (Nathan Brown and James Frawley went between 8 and 13). Polak gets hit by a tram in Melbourne and almost dies. Medhurst becomes AA. Freo saves Tarrant´s career before Tarrant stabs us in the back and demands a trade back to Collingwood, and only Collingwood, in exchange for peanuts. Fremantle end up giving up pick 13, 73, Polak, Medhurst for 4 years of Tarrant.
2007: Pick 7 Rhys Palmer - early hope before he injures his knee. Palmer comes back and runs into a leg on the field. It is Barlow´s leg. It is broken as badly as if Barlow was in a car accident. Palmer loses all form before being traded out. Barlow is never the same player.
2008: Pick 3 Stephen Hill - yay! Touch wood (edit in 2018 - damn, looks like the injury curse has hit him too and his brother for good measure)
2009: Pick 4 Anthony Morabito - knee reconstruction after knee reconstruction, retires prematurely.
2010: Pick 20 Jayden Pitt - retires early due to risk of death if he keeps playing on a dodgy heart. Second No 1 pick from Freo to suffer this (Drum also had an irregular heartbeat).
2011: Pick 16 Tom Sheridan - still alive. consider this a win
2012: Pick 17 Josh Simpson - couldn´t handle being dropped. Refused to travel with the team to Melbourne. Went bush. House burned down. Still making up for the Haselby and Hill anomaly. Gone off the rails.
2013: Pick 17 Michael Apeness - routine not so serious knee injury turns into a season ending injury. Constantly injured.
2014: Pick 13 Lachlan Weller - traded for Pick 2. Gets sent to Gold Coast. Gold Coast become even more of a basket case. See below.
2015: Pick 16 Traded for Harley Bennell - beset by injuries/off field incidents, has to resort to Ballet training to try to get on the field consistently.
2016: Pick 8 Griffin Logue - foot injuries/now an ankle injury. Has a congenital foot problem, which given the history of this curse, will result in his foot morphing into a grotesque claw
2017: Pick 2: Brayshaw - a first round pick that is the result of trading a first round pick (Weller). Brayshaw is looking good for his first ROY nomination before the softest guy in the AFL smashes in his jaw, ruling him out for the year in one of the worst hits seen in the AFL in years.
2018?
This poses some serious questions:

How long until we have another "Haselby/Hill" anomaly with our first pick?

What should our strategy be for our first pick going forward? Should we just trade it for 3 second rounders where we have had a lot of success?

Does anyone know how the curse started and how to get rid of it? It appears that we have tried many things including getting rid of the anchor, colours and numerous other things.

Should we abandon Bond´s strategy of keeping our No 1 pick no matter what? Although our history of trading the No 1 pick limits our options here.

What should we name this curse?
 
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Always get myself very nervous about the Dockers first pick does seem cursed personally think the first option should be the best West Aussie junior god knows there is enough stars amongst them at other teams. Cringed when they took the young Qlder hope it turns out alright cant see Apeness making it as a key forward hope I am wrong.
 
Always get myself very nervous about the Dockers first pick does seem cursed personally think the first option should be the best West Aussie junior god knows there is enough stars amongst them at other teams. Cringed when they took the young Qlder hope it turns out alright cant see Apeness making it as a key forward hope I am wrong.

Aha! The West Coast Eagles recruitment team posts on our board.
 
No chance but saying that they did manage to get Mcgovern somehow our recruitment team was too clever to draft an ex players son after they were told by senior players he was up to it.... dont undervalue the local talent it is there.
 
We have tended to take unnecessary risks with our first picks in recent years. Weller would be the safest selection since Mora.

Got a feeling that if we don't trade it, we'll pick Ryan Burton this year who will also have added risk. And like most high risk choices the upside is high.
 
James Walker was a pretty good pickup in light of that list even though he was a proto Sheridan.

Actually all of those first draft picks were pretty decent up until 2000. Certainly more than enough to work with there.
 
They were unlucky with Morabito as well would have been a star it is mainly the last 5 years where it has got interesting just when we needed a couple of them to be topliners.
 
Always get myself very nervous about the Dockers first pick does seem cursed personally think the first option should be the best West Aussie junior god knows there is enough stars amongst them at other teams. Cringed when they took the young Qlder hope it turns out alright cant see Apeness making it as a key forward hope I am wrong.

I've got a theory that draft picks used on locals give us considerably better results than non-locals. If I get bored in the off season i'm going to do an analysis of our last 10 or so drafts to test it.
 

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I've got a theory that draft picks used on locals give us considerably better results than non-locals. If I get bored in the off season i'm going to do an analysis of our last 10 or so drafts to test it.

A WCE poster did an analysis of the ratio of their home state/non-home state picks last year, and compared it to the interstate clubs and (I think) a normalised comparison to the Vic clubs. Their ratio is out of whack (hypothesized to be Judd go home aversion, because that's where the trend starts) and has lead to a few reaches that look pretty bad in hindsight.

CBF finding it but it was pretty compelling.
 
After the big Ape's injury woes with the knee this year and the on-going saga with Mora, I can forgive Bondy for skipping on Jake Lever and settling on Weller instead. The only worry with Weller is the go-home or i-want-to-play-with-my-brother factor - let's hope we're getting him nice and settled here in WA.
 
We have tended to take unnecessary risks with our first picks in recent years. Weller would be the safest selection since Mora.

Got a feeling that if we don't trade it, we'll pick Ryan Burton this year who will also have added risk. And like most high risk choices the upside is high.

Hope you are correct on Burton.
 
Especially when we could have taken Brad Hill with the Sheridan pick.
Brad hill was never going to go that high, however we could have taken him with the Forster pick (29) even Yeo went at 30 that year.
The weird thing about that draft is we got Sheridan at 16 and Crozier at 20 but throughout pick 16(sherro)-29(Forster) Crozier was probably the best player picked (excluding f/s) and we snagged him too.
I rate pick 30-40 in that draft alot higher then pick 20-30 has turned out so far.
 

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