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Politics War with Iran

Discussion in 'Society, Religion and Politics' started by Yellow Feathers, Nov 3, 2011.

Put it out there
  1. Yellow Feathers

    Yellow Feathers Team Captain

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    Looks like things are really heating up with Iran.

    In today's news:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/nov/02/irannuclearweaponsprogramme

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/nov/02/uk-military-iran-attack-nuclear

    http://news.sky.com/home/world-news/article/16101552

    Pretty crazy. Looks as though Israel may strike Iran, and the US and the UK might be gearing up to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities.

    I sincerely hope this does not happen, war with Iran could be the start of a conflict that involves the entire Middle East and may have global repercussions.

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  2. Tex_21

    Tex_21 All Australian

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    I've got nothing better on this weekend, why not start a war.
  3. rayven

    rayven Club Legend

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    Isreal needs a war.
  4. tazzietiger

    tazzietiger Team Captain

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    If they are going to do anything it probably makes sense to do it while they(US) still got troops in Iraq. Don't America pull out by end of this year?
    But then again they have bases in Kuwait so it wouldn't make much of a difference if they have troops in Iraq or not.
  5. Copernicus

    Copernicus Club Legend

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    Iran is a whole different beast compared to Iraq or Afghanistan. They actually have a military. It would probably not end well for anyone.
  6. Andre

    Andre Club Legend

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    The flipside of that is they wouldn't be looking to directly overthrow a regime. They'd be content to use the Airforce and Navy to bomb the crap out of Iran's facilities and/or military and only use ground troops to protect allies if required, they wouldn't commit to an invasion as such.

    If it happened the other middle east countries would publicly condemn it, whilst behind closed doors be supportive.
  7. blackcat

    blackcat Club Legend

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    this was heating up in Bush's last term. Cheney was telling Olmert and the Israelis to bomb the Persians.

    Chairman of the JCOS Mullen had to fly to Tel Aviv with William Gates and tell Netanyahu and other Likud coalition hawks to not create a conflict with a USS Liberty false flag and assume the US would finish off Tehran and in HRC's words, "obliterate" the Persians.

    best coupl'a' sources to go to, are not MSM media who get their talking point from acronymed DC think wanks.

    Nima Shirazi @ http://www.wideasleepinamerica.com/

    Flynt Leverett
    Hilary Mann Leverett
    ex St Dep't officials
    @ http://www.raceforiran.com/

    Trita Parsi
    Swedish Persian ex-pat @ http://www.tritaparsi.com/

    Juan Cole
    academic blog, Informed Comment
    @ www.juancole.com


    I was at an academic conference on drugs in sport, and at dinner after one of the presenters who was a psych lecturer at ADFA@ANU said he could have no communications with any Iranian. Crazy, simple crazy when you know the reality and facts of this geopolitic stoush.

    and @ blackat
    http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=689921&highlight=Iran
    http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=658988&highlight=Iran
    http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=663689&highlight=Iran
  8. blackcat

    blackcat Club Legend

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    only the tyrants would be for. Dont delude yourself the peoples of the ME are gonna be in assent.
  9. blackcat

    blackcat Club Legend

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    close the straits of Hormuz. About 40% of all sea bound oil comes thru there. That is something like 30% of the world's supply. You will be paying an extra 50% for petrol. Minimum. Crude might go up double, or more. Be a disaster for the Israelis.
  10. blackcat

    blackcat Club Legend

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    personally, I dont think it makes sense with them there, makes more sense with them not there. As it is, they are a Shia state, Iraq this is, and they will come under intensive attack in Iraq, without even having to go into Iran.
  11. Tasmaniac

    Tasmaniac Team Captain

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    This is Iran's big card to play, their armed forces can't possibly match the US, but they don't need to.

    Fat slow oil tankers in the Persian Gulf and a lovely narrow choke point at the Straits of Hormuz. Don't need high tech military gear, a favourable geographic position and low tech weaponary can screw over the world's economy massively. Instant global recession.

    Lots of chest beating from Israel, US & Co. I doubt they will launch a pre-emptive strike simply because of the oil card Iran would play.

    Far more likely is to let them develop nuke weapons (but slowing them via Stuxnet et al, and maybe the odd assasination or defection), and then clamp down even harder on them Cold War style once they reveal they have nukes (hard for neutrals to sit on the fence too), combined with some internal meddling in Iran (the young democratic movement) and be patient, and wait for the Iranian govt to fall over.

    Or the Iran leadership get visions of Allah and launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike on Israel/US.

    Or they use their nuke weapon as protection so they can 'act up' (terrorist/freedom fighter attacks in Israel/US/Europe/Saundi Arabia), miscalculate how far they can push, and trigger someone in the West to retaliate, and hey presto back to war.

    Alternatively, some smart cookie develops a genuine, cheap, close substitue for oil. The value/importance of oil plummets, and Iran gets the crap bashed out of it unless they change their ways.

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  12. blackcat

    blackcat Club Legend

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    oh, but they still do have Russian missiles that are more than technologically capable. I think the US sent Baker or Rice or HRC to discourage Putin on the last shipment of weaponry that the Persians had ordered. It never arrived.

    Tassie, they aren't developing Nukes. See the last National Intelligence Estimate. See Hersh. Even ask the Israelis, they know that they are not trying to get a nuke.
  13. rayven

    rayven Club Legend

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    The only reason Iran would want a nuke if it was in an arms race. otherwise they have no need for one.

    As I understand Iranian society would be much improved with nuclear power and medicine. As I understand it with the instabilty of that region/country one couldn't say a nuclear reactor would be safe. Nuclear reactors require maintenace (in some form) for centuries. What happens if there's a coup?

    Still think Isreal is itchin for a fight somewhere to take the pressure off. It's a proven policy is war. They got revelotion/protesting issues like most as well as the palestinians have smartened up their act and countries like Turkey heavily involved in what is a humanatarian issue.
  14. Tasmaniac

    Tasmaniac Team Captain

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    I know there was a lot of too-ing & fro-ing on supplying those very sexy Surface to Air missiles from Russia/Ukraine(forgot their designation) which would have put a real dampener on any airborne pre-emptive strike.

    Personally I think they are researching/building all the knowledge/tools/materials needed to make nukes, but won't actually make them.

    Putting themselves in a plausible/deniable position to deny they have nukes or are making them.

    My POV is based on the fact they seem willing to cop way too much grief/sanctions from the West/international community to be simply making civilian reactors, if that's all they are doing, then it has to be costing them an extra, unecessary packet of cash to do something on the sly, which they are entitled to do out in the open. I can't believe they honestly think the US/West will steal some technological secret of how to make reactors from them if they did it in the open.

    I know the Iranians fancy themselves to be clever buggers, but I don't see the benefit in paying significant extra unnecessary cash, simply so they can look like hard bastards who stick it up the West.

    In short, Occams Razor (although i should stop there, never did philosophy at Uni).

    Of course there could be another beneficial angle which they can see, which I can't.

    Any suggestions on a REAL benefit to match the extra cost they are undertaking to manufacture civilian nuclear reactors?
  15. 42DM

    42DM Suspended

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    Maybe so and their society would also be much improved if the country wasn't run by a religious idiot.
  16. MaddAdam

    MaddAdam Premiership Player

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    Won't happen. Israelis diverting from the massive protests on their streets.
  17. blackcat

    blackcat Club Legend

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    Well, read Hersh, read Nimar Shirazi, read the Leveretts, read Trita Parsi.

    They are not, but they were in the 70's, they were open about it then, they had the support of Israel and the US then, with the Shah in power, they had the endorsement of the hawks then, to pursue arms.

    Atm, the mullahs and the Ayatollah are against nukes.

    beneficial angle was strategic gambit by Ahmadinejad, which backfired. He wanted something to negotiate with. LAter they offered to handover Al Qaeda operatives, and Bush refused, and they went to Yemen freed.

    And there was two. The medical isotopes, need enrichment to high level, 20% I believe, and there is not a market that I know of, that caters to this. Now the IAEA considers this "high level" enrichment, and most thinktank commentators use the talking point "breakoiut capacity". But it is not linear, from 2% civil to 20% medical isotope to 98% weapons grade enrichment. You dont jump from one to the other. Hersh reckons it is 6% in research and development.

    And now with geographic measurement, ie seismometer, you just cant test your ability to reach technological proficiency. It is simply not doable.

    They are not paper tigers, and wont let the US and Israel dicate domestic and regional policy, they refuse to allow them exclusive hegemon status.

    What did they have to lose, the US and the international union were already instituting debilitating sanctions, the CIA and Israel are sponsoring domestic Iranian terror groups, Jundallah, and MEK.

    Do you really think those "hikers" were just hiking on the border of Iraq and Iran?

    The US have undertook a policy of regime change, and there are numerous acts, which would justify casus belli, from drones being flown over their airspace (and shot down), to those spies caught "hiking".
  18. MaddAdam

    MaddAdam Premiership Player

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  19. cash

    cash Team Captain

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    Would be on if they bomb iran. Would Turn Israel into a war zone once again but this time rockets would be hitting TelAviv. Egypt is not such a great allie any more. Hesbollah has dug back into the Golan Heights.

    As someone mentioned they can shutdown the worlds oil supply overnight.
    Most likely Israel acting up to get the world to put on tougher sanctions.
  20. TheHeatleyStand

    TheHeatleyStand Team Captain

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    israel doesnt like fighting armies.
    Iran is armed to defend.
    And the Russians wont allow it to happen..

    Israel and the USA will just have to grin and bear it ultimately.

    Neither is in a great position .
  21. Geelong_Sicko

    Geelong_Sicko Club Legend

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    Israel LOVES fighting armies. Any time they've faced a conventional Arab army using the old Soviet 'tank-rushing' doctrine they've won, or at least salvaged a draw. It's the guerrilla armies like Hezbollah that Israel would rather not face.
  22. blackcat

    blackcat Club Legend

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    this premises that there IS nuclear weaponry ambition. This still has yet to be proven.

    Hersh is doubtful. The Israelis whose remit is their national defense are highly skeptical. Only the hawks are begging the question like Bush, Cheney, Bolton etc, plus the Likud coalition Netanyahu and Avi Lieberman stick their head in their sands and refrain "Dybbuk, Dybbuk, Dybbuk, nuke nuke nuke".

    Is not the real concern, that Israel wont sign the IAEA non-proliferation treaty, and they have the Samson policy?


    Up is down, down is Up, Black is white, white is Black, Jackson is dead.
  23. blackcat

    blackcat Club Legend

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    Israel loves fighting, its their raison d'etre, that and myth making.
  24. Empire_Persian

    Empire_Persian Team Captain

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    Ahmadinejad is ideologically geared for war. His allegiance to the Hojjatieh is well known, his father's family in Ghamsar were fervently against the Baha'is so Mahmoud naturally became an active supporter. (Bear in mind his public devotion to the Basij is only for popularity among the devout lower class supporters of the regime). The Hojjatieh's most damning doctrine, is it's undying hope to see the return of Christ, the 12th Imam, the "Ghaim". As per Biblical and Quranic tradition his return will be triggered by global war, and the Hojjatieh see themselves as the finger on the trigger of that holy gun of war. Obtaining nuclear weapons is on the agenda; it makes for good strategy if you look at the balance of firepower, which weighs in favour of Iran's enemies. Yet the trick for Iran is surprise - whilst the balance is not in their favour they would take sanctions on the chin, and use "civilian nuclear purposes" to thwart legitimate and open attack against them. Once they have a few bombs in their palms, they would flaunt it, I have no doubt. Iran is adamant to become a regional and world powerhouse. The historical connotations traverse back a few millennia when the Persian Empire, under the Achaemenid dynasty, ruled the known world. Iranians are very proud of their rich history. Yet the Islamic Authority has not traditionally promoted Iran's pre-Islamic glory, arts or culture (in many instance deciding to decimate it instead), yet, in the past few years there has been instances which suggest they are changing tack - the most glaring example would be the row over the 'Persian Gulf' name, Ahmadinejad's aggressive public stance was unusual. Regional domination cannot be achieved simply through history lessons, and funnelling arms and funds to like-minded Shia groups - nuclear capabilities will seriously up the ante'.
  25. Toriola

    Toriola Senior List

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    Not dissimilar to Hagee's church then. I thought all Jews have to return to Israel, and the third temple has to be rebuilt first though. :confused: