Opinion We do NOT need a full rebuild

[geelong_crazy26]

It is clear to us all that Geelong is not going to win the premiership this year but we can still make the finals which given the age of our list is a great achievement. If we do make the finals it will be largely on the back of our under 25 year olds given the fact that the over 30 year olds are constantly getting injured.
,
Just think about who we sit behind in the pecking order ?
The big 4 Hawthorn ,Fremantle, Port and Sydney are the only clubs who are defiantly better than us
North perhaps but they tend to buckle under pressure
Collingwood had been given a super easy draw so far
Bulldogs have come out hard but can they go the distance ?
Bombers do the same thing every year ,come out hard and fall away
Adelaide may just be having another brief honeymoon under a new coach

We are a 5th-8th side and if we can make the finals based on the performance of our under 25 year olds which will have to be the case , we will be within striking distance of another premiership very soon. It is reasonable to think that all those under 25 years will get better ,Clark will be much improved ,Menzel touch wood might be back and than you have Sir Patrick Dangerfield

Back in 2005 Geelong set a goal to win more premierships over the next 15 years , we currently are equal with Hawthorn , If they don't win the premiership this year than I think we will most likely achieve this goal.

 

[Whit3y]

North perhaps

there win last week against us at our home ground (the fortress) would indicate something wouldnt you think?

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

Your name is very fitting for this thread OP. We're so far off it's not funny.

 

[Claude Balls]

In my opinion, not doing a full rebuild is synonymous with contending again in the next 3-5 years, or put differently, while Selwood, Hawkins, Clark, Taylor, Dangerfield if we get him, are still at or near the peak of their powers.

The problem as I see it is that the players who are capable of reaching their peak within this time-frame are simply not good enough as a group to warrant much optimism.

Duncan, Motlop, Guthrie, Caddy, Blicavs, Smedts, Horlin-Smith, Walker, Murdoch, Stanley... 22-24 years of age. Several of them are doing very well individually, however on the whole, there's just not enough there. Plus this group of players does not address the team's current or forecast structural deficiencies (inside midfielders and key defenders)

Basically, as things stand at the moment we are going to need many of the players who are still very young or inexperienced (Thurlow, Bews, Lang, JK, the 2014 draft), to step up in a big way. And that's 4+ years away.

So to comment on the OP, to avoid having to do a full rebuild, we need one of two things to happen:

1. either the mid tier needs to surprise us all and go gangbusters, or

2. we need to hit the jackpot with free-agency (3+ canny acquisitions).

...or a combination of both

pretty long odds from my point of view.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

We need to find a few more young key defenders... that would be a good start.

 

[The Great5s]

Not sure I've been watching the same AFL as you but our position on the ladder is well deserved imo. It's early days but we're currently a LONG way off being the 5th or 6th best side, and from what I've seen of the developing sides we're more likely to slip further behind than advance in the next couple of years without Kelly, Mackie, Enright, Lonergan, Johnson, Rivers, Stokes, Bartel. The speed, run, rapid skill development and endeavour of some of the other sides has been a real eye opener so far. After looking like future elite players at times Guthrie, Motlop and even Murdoch seem to have found their level and don't look likely to break games open so I'm left wondering where our next Jimmy, Johnno or Boris is coming from. Hopefully they'll make me eat my words. On paper we look okay and ought to be doing better but our lack of pace, skilled crumbers and to be frank, desire, are holding us back.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

there win last week against us at our home ground (the fortress) would indicate something wouldnt you think?

I think its fair to say North are better than us , however we did beat them twice last year and yet still lost to them in the finals , perhaps it will reverse this year.

In all honesty I think we have the 6th best list in the comp and we can defiantly get better.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Not sure I've been watching the same AFL as you but our position on the ladder is well deserved imo. It's early days but we're currently a LONG way off being the 5th or 6th best side, and from what I've seen of the developing sides we're more likely to slip further behind than advance in the next couple of years without Kelly, Mackie, Enright, Lonergan, Johnson, Rivers, Stokes, Bartel. The speed, run, rapid skill development and endeavour of some of the other sides has been a real eye opener so far. After looking like future elite players at times Guthrie, Motlop and even Murdoch seem to have found their level and don't look likely to break games open so I'm left wondering where our next Jimmy, Johnno or Boris is coming from. Hopefully they'll make me eat my words. On paper we look okay and ought to be doing better but our lack of pace, skilled crumbers and to be frank, desire, are holding us back.

Other than the top 4 sides non of the others have done anything to be rated at all.

Kelly,Mackie,Stokes,Bartel are all injured and Johnson is having minimal impact. If we do make the finals it will be largely due to those under 25 year olds.

Perhaps you should look at who we have lost to ? Fremantle and Hawthorn who are perhaps the best 2 sides in the competition and North who are probably the 5th best side in the comp.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Your name is very fitting for this thread OP. We're so far off it's not funny.

So tell me who is a better side than us ? I can only come up with 5 Hawks,Freo,Swans,Port and North

 

[Pavlovs Cat]

So tell me who is a better side than us ? I can only come up with 5 Hawks,Freo,Swans,Port and North

Adelaide, Collingwood, bulldogs, GWS. DOnt know about "better" but on current form we'd struggle to beat them. At the moment as soon as the oppo kick two on the trot we are in trouble. Full rebuild required.

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

So tell me who is a better side than us ? I can only come up with 5 Hawks,Freo,Swans,Port and North

Bulldogs, Pies, GWS, Gold Coast (with Ablett, O'Meara. Dixon) Adelaide, Possibly Essendon.

The fact we have 8+ 30 year olds in our BEST 18 and still rely on them + Selwood and Hawkins for most games should give you an indication of what our future holds.

The fact that our midfield talent/depth is poor and that we have yet to score 100 points this year indicates our forward-line and % will once again be a source of frustration, hell we aren't even playing at the same level as last year, we've gone back from the start of finals very quickly.

Also we usually win all of our home games, which goes half way to getting us enough wins for finals and we're 1 and 2 there already.

This year specifically we've beaten 2 shitty teams by 3 goals and could have easily lost both those games. AND we still haven't traveled interstate, which wouldn't surprise me if we lose all of them, That is not a top 8 team on the rise, that is one on the slide.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Adelaide, Collingwood, bulldogs, GWS. DOnt know about "better" but on current form we'd struggle to beat them. At the moment as soon as the oppo kick two on the trot we are in trouble. Full rebuild required.

Those 4 sides are most likely to crash and burn by then end of the year, lets see them perform over the distance before we put them ahead of us on the back of losses to 3 of the best 5 sides in the competition.

 

[Snow]

This year specifically we've beaten 2 shitty teams by 3 goals and could have easily lost both those games. AND we still haven't traveled interstate, which wouldn't surprise me if we lose all of them, That is not a top 8 team on the rise, that is one on the slide.

I am certain Richmond would have beaten us if Deledio was available so I wouldn't go as far as calling them s**t.

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

I am certain Richmond would have beaten us if Deledio was available so I wouldn't go as far as calling them s**t.

Yes they are, 1 out compared to what we had out and still losing makes them shithouse

 

[Snow]

Yes they are, 1 out compared to what we had out and still losing makes them shithouse

If we had all of ours and they had all of there's we would of won by 2 goals. If we were the same and they had Deledio they would have won

 

[Claude Balls]

I am certain Richmond would have beaten us if Deledio was available so I wouldn't go as far as calling them s**t.

Richmond is an awful side at the moment.

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

If we had all of ours and they had all of there's we would of won by 2 goals. If we were the same and they had Deledio they would have won

So? Still doesn't stop them from being s**t. Which adds to how poor we're are this year as well.

 

[Turbocat]

When a comp is even , all tactical advantage must be used to win Flags. One is having a critical mass of quality players in the "green zone" ( 23<>29 with 70 games<>200 games). If you are lucky it can stretch. You may have some older , maybe some younger but history shows you need that core in that Green Zone

Look at us last time. As we know we have a good group from the 99 draft along with 01. Lets take Jimmy Bartel as an example , 23 & 85 games played by the end of 2007 (His Brownlow year)<> 27 & 181 games 2011. .... so that group of 99 and 01 were probably variations on his numbers.
Yes there were those older and younger but having as many in that green zone at the same time is an advantage.

So as Claude Balls point made , can we get enough players "Green" before Selwood and his group go "Red"?

Selwood is about to turn 27. He has played a 189 games. One could make an argument that its down hill from here , after all he has been huge , brave and has an amazing run...so did not draft him cause they doubted his longevity. Of course , we might look at Enright and say he could play another 4 years at a very good level. So if its to happen with him , it seems we have to bring in multiple players to support Selwood because its obvious we do not have enough in his age group. We have added Clark, Stanley , add another 2 to 3 FA's and if they all become good players , yes we are back in it.

We also must realise , to build a that sustainable critical mass in the green zone we need at least 10 to 15 players from our youth to add to them. I guess thats why we are now playing up to ten players each week with less than 50 games ( and Freo is playing a side with only 1)

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Bulldogs, Pies, GWS, Gold Coast (with Ablett, O'Meara. Dixon) Adelaide, Possibly Essendon.

The fact we have 8+ 30 year olds in our BEST 18 and still rely on them + Selwood and Hawkins for most games should give you an indication of what our future holds. The fact that our midfield talent/depth is poor and that we have yet to score 100 points this year indicates our forward-line and % will once again be a source of frustration, hell we aren't even playing at the same level as last year, we've gone back from the start of finals very quickly.

Also we usually win all of our home games, which goes half way to getting us enough wins for finals and we're 1 and 2 there already.

This year specifically we've beaten 2 shitty teams by 3 goals and could have easily lost both those games. AND we still haven't traveled interstate, which wouldn't surprise me if we lose all of them, That is not a top 8 team on the rise, that is one on the slide.

This is just nonsense we lose to 3 of the best 5 side and that means we are behind sides that have done nothing at all , those sides you have listed either have a history or fading away during the home and away season or are currently enjoying a honeymoon under a new coach.

Kelly,Bartel,Stokes and Mackie are all injured and Johnson is having minimal impact. If we do make the finals it will be largely due to those under 25 year olds.

We are in transition , our best 22 is changing as we speak .

Its reasonable to assume that the following players will only get better


Its reasonable to assume that the following players will only get better -Blicavs,Caddy,Duncan,Motlop,Guthrie,Bews,Thurlow,Murdoch,GHS,Lang,Cockatoo,Smedts,Gregson,Stanley and Clark. I understand a few will not be up to standard but they will all get better. Plenty of talent to work with there , they just haven't hit that sweet spot yet.

Don't forget free agency

 

[geelong_crazy26]

When a comp is even , all tactical advantage must be used to win Flags. One is having a critical mass of quality players in the "green zone" ( 23<>29 with 70 games<>200 games). If you are lucky it can stretch. You may have some older , maybe some younger but history shows you need that core in that Green Zone

Look at us last time. As we know we have a good group from the 99 draft along with 01. Lets take Jimmy Bartel as an example , 23 & 85 games played by the end of 2007 (His Brownlow year)<> 27 & 181 games 2011. .... so that group of 99 and 01 were probably variations on his numbers.
Yes there were those older and younger but having as many in that green zone at the same time is an advantage.

So as Claude Balls point made , can we get enough players "Green" before Selwood and his group go "Red"?

Selwood is about to turn 27. He has played a 189 games. One could make an argument that its down hill from here , after all he has been huge , brave and has an amazing run...so did not draft him cause they doubted his longevity. Of course , we might look at Enright and say he could play another 4 years at a very good level. So if its to happen with him , it seems we have to bring in multiple players to support Selwood because its obvious we do not have enough in his age group. We have added Clark, Stanley , add another 2 to 3 FA's and if they all become good players , yes we are back in it.

We also must realise , to build a that sustainable critical mass in the green zone we need at least 10 to 15 players from our youth to add to them. I guess thats why we are now playing up to ten players each week with less than 50 games ( and Freo is playing a side with only 1)

If we do make a semi final this year , than with the addition of Dangerfield we can compete for the premiership next year .I don't agree that we are a bottom 6 side like some are making out. But on the players over 29 , Hawthorn have a few and so did we in 2011.Hodge,Mitchell,Burogyne,Lake,Gibson and Hale are still very good players.

 

[Claude Balls]

Its reasonable to assume that the following players will only get better -Blicavs,Caddy,Duncan,Motlop,Guthrie,Bews,Thurlow,Murdoch,GHS,Lang,Cockatoo,Smedts,Gregson,Stanley and Clark. I understand a few will not be up to standard but they will all get better. Plenty of talent to work with there , they just haven't hit that sweet spot yet.

Don't forget free agency

But

1. Many of them might not have a sweet spot to hit.

2. By the time those of them who do, do, other players will have moved out of their own sweet spot.

 

[Lana]

Bulldogs, Pies, GWS, Gold Coast (with Ablett, O'Meara. Dixon) Adelaide, Possibly Essendon.

The fact we have 8+ 30 year olds in our BEST 18 and still rely on them + Selwood and Hawkins for most games should give you an indication of what our future holds.

The fact that our midfield talent/depth is poor and that we have yet to score 100 points this year indicates our forward-line and % will once again be a source of frustration, hell we aren't even playing at the same level as last year, we've gone back from the start of finals very quickly.

Also we usually win all of our home games, which goes half way to getting us enough wins for finals and we're 1 and 2 there already.

This year specifically we've beaten 2 shitty teams by 3 goals and could have easily lost both those games. AND we still haven't traveled interstate, which wouldn't surprise me if we lose all of them, That is not a top 8 team on the rise, that is one on the slide.

Can't say we rely on them, we're down to four at the moment. The question isn't are we s**t at the moment, cause the answer is probably. But do we need a full rebuild. We are playing more people younger than 25 then we are older than 25. We have a large core of players between the age of 22-24 (9 players on the weekend) most of whom have been regulars for the last two years, with all of our vets out we are putting games in even younger players (which for a variety of different reasons we didn't do a lot of last year). The only concentration of vets that are fit atm is in the KPDs spots(with lonergan and Taylor contracted for next year) otherwise we have kids taking significant responsibility on all lines. This year is a temporary low and we'll be better for it.

 

[goodoldcats]

good forwards, good backs... and probably the worst midfield in the league. We are short 2 A-grade midfielders to be up their with the best. Oursa dont get enough of the ball (excluding selwood)

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

This is just nonsense we lose to 3 of the best 5 side and that means we are behind sides that have done nothing at all , those sides you have listed either have a history or fading away during the home and away season or are currently enjoying a honeymoon under a new coach.

Kelly,Bartel,Stokes and Mackie are all injured and Johnson is having minimal impact. If we do make the finals it will be largely due to those under 25 year olds.

We are in transition , our best 22 is changing as we speak .

Its reasonable to assume that the following players will only get better


Its reasonable to assume that the following players will only get better -Blicavs,Caddy,Duncan,Motlop,Guthrie,Bews,Thurlow,Murdoch,GHS,Lang,Cockatoo,Smedts,Gregson,Stanley and Clark. I understand a few will not be up to standard but they will all get better. Plenty of talent to work with there , they just haven't hit that sweet spot yet.

Don't forget free agency

So what have we done then? You're basing all of this off what exactly, last year? Beating Richmond and Gold Coast?

How are you going to replace, Lonnergan, Enright, Rivers and not expect us to slide further?

 

[Snow]

Richmond is an awful side at the moment.

And we are not?