Why your club isn't going to be getting Patrick Dangerfield

[cryptor]

Even Saints and Dogs dream of coming good, and their time will come. They would be doing their fans a disservice if they didn't pursue someone like Dangerfield if he dropped in their laps.

Danger could start phoning it in, but then his legacy becomes in doubt. Would he want to be remembered as a spoilt hack who sooked or would he give it a go with a team with a few top draft picks and the balls to sign him in the first place?

And clubs need to spend their cap. It's not really money wasted if there is room.

That is the uncertainty that could very well turn off those clubs. Again, it's easy to say you'd take that risk when you yourself have nothing to lose.

As for the having to spend the cap space argument. That's not necessarily correct. The new cap rules allow clubs to underspend the cap by a certain percentage (forget what) and then over spend up to the difference the following year. So rather than risk it on a player who doesn't want to be there they might pursue that. They might front load some younger player contracts to make room for poaching a free agent who does want to be there when the time is right. They might want to spend that money on cheaper opposition players that fill a niché role like Suckling from the Hawks. All would be far more sensible options and still move the club forward.

 

[hutchy31]

Dangerfield would make every team in the comp better - some of us will rate him lower than others, but no serious poster here would deny that he would walk into their 22. If he does end up going down the f.a. route then there should be a number of offers on the table for him - interesting to think what they might look like and how successful they're likely to be:

- If your club is entering/in a premiership window (or you believe you're only a small rebuild away) you would take a look. How much cap do you have, how can you structure an attractive deal etc. Chance of success may depend on how Adelaide do this year - they'd probably be able to match an offer of this type, and if they make finals maybe he stays if he sees a chance at a flag.
- If your club is rebuilding and likely has cap space, you could throw an offer at him that Adelaide would find it difficult to justify matching. But how do you sell it to him? The youth is good enough, and a few more experienced players able to play on for a while, to challenge for a flag in 3-5 years? How high does the offer have to be? He's a star of the comp that will bring memberships, sponsors etc and how much is that worth?

Without knowing who can or can't structure an attractive offer within their salary cap, I'd personally only be surprised if he ended up at Hawthorn, Sydney, Port, Gold Coast, GWS, Brisbane or Bulldogs. I still think the most likely outcome is that Adelaide have a good year (I think their best is up there if they find some consistency), he stays and signs a lucrative, long-term contract there. If they don't and he goes f.a, I think there will be a feeding frenzy with at least half of the teams in the comp taking a look.

 

[CrowsB4hoes]

That is the uncertainty that could very well turn off those clubs. Again, it's easy to say you'd take that risk when you yourself have nothing to lose.

Okay, let's say Saints and Dogs don't want to risk a player that might not want to be part of their club.

Collingwood? Carlton? Can you see either of them passing on him?

And remember we are talking about Geelong and why they would trade for him. I think Collingwood might be the reason why they'd be keen to snap him up with a trade rather than risk the pre season draft.

 

[Chad WinGOAT]

Make no mistake, Dangerfield is a star. He almost dragged the Crows into a GF in 2012. In 2013 he lacked support and 2014 he was battered and bruised all season. I also get the impression he's been mis-used by the Crows.
His clearance work is exceptional, but he should spend more time in the forward 50 (think in a Dustin Martin type role). His leads are impossible to stop and his set shots are pretty good. Plus that would give him time to rest and be more effective in the middle.

Most teams in the AFL would jump at the chance to snag him (at the right price). You'd think if he does decide to leave, he's going to a Victorian team that has a chance of winning a flag in the near future. For me; Hawthorn, Geelong and Collingwood are the most likely to snag him. Collingwood especially since they lost Beams and have freed up a lot of cap space. Just like the Hawks lost Buddy and picked up Frawley the following year. That being said I think Geelong is the most likely destination. Great club culture. Have repeatedly played finals for so long. You just expect them to be up there every year.

 

[theflea]

I remember Hawthorn matched Collingwoods offer for C Young but Collingwood topped that.

Young was a UFA.

 

[hawkman]

Young was a UFA.

Yep, from memory Young went back to Hawthorn with his offer from Collingwood to see if we could offer him enough to stay, we raised our offer a little bit but still not near Collingwood's, so he walked

 

[Asgardian]

So you think Port should have done this with Boak? Richmond with Martin??

Boak re-signed with us prior to the trade period in 2012, when Geelong were all over him, therefore before it became an issue, we had no issue.

Since then he did a contract extension until the end of 2018.

However if you are referring to the 2011 trade period, then it was also not an issue compared to what the crows have with Dangerfield because we were not fielding offers of picks 2 & 3, and the like, for Boak at that time.

 

[dazbroncos]

Doubt money will come into it in the form of 'salary'. It will be success, plus earnings from 'business' interests that will most likely get him over the line.

Thank you Frank Costa.

Go Catters

 

[cryptor]

Okay, let's say Saints and Dogs don't want to risk a player that might not want to be part of their club.

Collingwood? Carlton? Can you see either of them passing on him?

And remember we are talking about Geelong and why they would trade for him. I think Collingwood might be the reason why they'd be keen to snap him up with a trade rather than risk the pre season draft.

Danger is the one who makes the call of whether or not he wants to walk into the PSD if a trade can't be agreed on. He'll only be in such a position if Adelaide is a mid tier team or worse at the end of 2015. If he ends up at another mid tier team but closer to home and on a huge pay packet then it will still be an improvement for him.

As for Geelong, sure they could miss out on Danger but they stand to lose nothing if they do. Where as Adelaide stand to lose their best player for absolutely nothing. Geelong aren't going to want to trade market value for a player who possibly wants to go to them alone AND also pay him over a million a season. Not when they know the team they're trading with stands to lose a lot more than they do if they hold out. There will be other free agents that will come along for Geelong, there won't be another Patrick Dangerfield for Adelaide - there might be others like him, but not him. There's no bluffing because everyones cards are out on the table.

Geelong (should it end up being them) will offer marginally more than what Adelaide would get if they accepted the compo pick. They won't need to offer any more because they know Adelaide will blink first, they will accept that or lose him for nothing. Though rather than risk a guaranteed compo pick for a possible (though likely) slightly higher value trade offer they will, just like every other club who've been in this situation, begrudgingly accept the compo pick and move on.

 

[chiwigi]

Brownlow chance: Fyfe, Dangerfield, Boak
Team importantance: Boak, Fyfe, Dangerfield
Damaging Footballer: Fyfe, Dangerfield, Boak

Wow, you don't watch much Boak, his goals turn many a tight game into a win. Dangerfield not so much.
Boak is our second most damaging player (after an on form Gray).

Change Dangerfields role and he could be m ore damaging, but the way he played last season...nah.

 

[dazbroncos]

Danger is the one who makes the call of whether or not he wants to walk into the PSD if a trade can't be agreed on. He'll only be in such a position if Adelaide is a mid tier team or worse at the end of 2015. If he ends up at another mid tier team but closer to home and on a huge pay packet then it will still be an improvement for him.

As for Geelong, sure they could miss out on Danger but they stand to lose nothing if they do. Where as Adelaide stand to lose their best player for absolutely nothing. Geelong aren't going to want to trade market value for a player who possibly wants to go to them alone AND also pay him over a million a season. Not when they know the team they're trading with stands to lose a lot more than they do if they hold out. There will be other free agents that will come along for Geelong, there won't be another Patrick Dangerfield for Adelaide - there might be others like him, but not him. There's no bluffing because everyones cards are out on the table.

Geelong (should it end up being them) will offer marginally more than what Adelaide would get if they accepted the compo pick. They won't need to offer any more because they know Adelaide will blink first, they will accept that or lose him for nothing. Though rather than risk a guaranteed compo pick for a possible (though likely) slightly higher value trade offer they will, just like every other club who've been in this situation, begrudgingly accept the compo pick and move on.

GFC have historically been reasonable when trading too. Not that that means anything in this case, but if GFC have the chance to be on the winning side of a trade then they will take any advantage that comes their way. Agree that interest in PD is clearly there and will be pursued should PD want to come to us.

But as you say, it wont be a trade to AFC if they can get him RFA without losing anything for it.

And if it is a trade, AFC will be swinging for the stands in terms of comp and we wont give a Mitch Duncan esq and our first rd for him. That would be their trade price no doubt.

GO Catters

 

[cryptor]

GFC have historically been reasonable when trading too. Not that that means anything in this case, but if GFC have the chance to be on the winning side of a trade then they will take any advantage that comes their way. Agree that interest in PD is clearly there and will be pursued should PD want to come to us.

But as you say, it wont be a trade to AFC if they can get him RFA without losing anything for it.

And if it is a trade, AFC will be swinging for the stands in terms of comp and we wont give a Mitch Duncan esq and our first rd for him. That would be their trade price no doubt.

GO Catters

I daresay they would be asking for even more than that. The fact that as a fan you're not even entertaining trading them that much illustrates just what will happen. Geelong would already be giving up around $1M/season from their cap just to get him there, so there's no chance they'll want to give up even half his market value going the other way.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

GFC have historically been reasonable when trading too. Not that that means anything in this case, but if GFC have the chance to be on the winning side of a trade then they will take any advantage that comes their way. Agree that interest in PD is clearly there and will be pursued should PD want to come to us.

But as you say, it wont be a trade to AFC if they can get him RFA without losing anything for it.

And if it is a trade, AFC will be swinging for the stands in terms of comp and we wont give a Mitch Duncan esq and our first rd for him. That would be their trade price no doubt.

GO Catters

Agreed you guys could of really played hardball with Christensen and demanded much better compensation for a best 22 player leaving in bizarre circumstances.

 

[cmndstab]

They offered it, They were the ones to wave picks 2 & 3 in front of Adelaide.

This has never actually been reported anywhere.

 

[dazbroncos]

Agreed you guys could of really played hardball with Christensen and demanded much better compensation for a best 22 player leaving in bizarre circumstances.

Not just him but Chappy, Pods, and a few others that, granted, we delisted, but we also did that rather than force a trade for them. We cleared the way for them to get to where they wanted.

Bundy was actually OOC so we could have gotten less……..

GO Catters

 

[Roughies Boys]

As if Adelaide would play hard ball past 1m over Dangerfield not wanting to be there...

 

[Tex200]

I daresay they would be asking for even more than that. The fact that as a fan you're not even entertaining trading them that much illustrates just what will happen. Geelong would already be giving up around $1M/season from their cap just to get him there, so there's no chance they'll want to give up even half his market value going the other way.

I think your posting in this issue is around the mark.

I think J Aish has a role to play in this. If he is heading back to us I can't see our staff wanting to leave him with d... in hand while we flog a dead horse with Geelong.

It will be a case of get what we can and get on with doing a deal for Aish. If, for example, we know compo pick is say #12 and we know Bris will take that, then I reckon things will move quickly.

Before a rush of Lions fans come on to argue value - it's just an example.

 

[cryptor]

I think your posting in this issue is around the mark.

I think J Aish has a role to play in this. If he is heading back to us I can't see our staff wanting to leave him with d... in hand while we flog a dead horse with Geelong.

It will be a case of get what we can and get on with doing a deal for Aish. If, for example, we know compo pick is say #12 and we know Bris will take that, then I reckon things will move quickly.

Before a rush of Lions fans come on to argue value - it's just an example.

Well likewise if Aish wants to go to Adelaide then chances are he'll get there as well. Even if it's for unders.

 

[Footy 1st]

Wow, you don't watch much Boak, his goals turn many a tight game into a win. Dangerfield not so much.
Boak is our second most damaging player (after an on form Gray).

Change Dangerfields role and he could be m ore damaging, but the way he played last season...nah.

I watch plenty of Boak and deadset rate him, just harder to stop guys that regularly break the lines at pace...

 

[chiwigi]

I watch plenty of Boak and deadset rate him, just harder to stop guys that regularly break the lines at pace...

I see where you are coming from then, I'll concede from that point of view.

 

[Footy 1st]

I see where you are coming from then, I'll concede from that point of view.

Yep love Boak, Fyfe is a freak, Boak is a tough 'lead by example' type and Danger explosive... all guns.

 

[Dez!]

Apparently that's what Melbourne offered in the last trade period

We actually didn't though, that was nothing but journos trying to make up a story.

Roos said on numerous occasions that trading 2 high picks for one player was something he wouldn't do.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Not just him but Chappy, Pods, and a few others that, granted, we delisted, but we also did that rather than force a trade for them. We cleared the way for them to get to where they wanted.

Bundy was actually OOC so we could have gotten less……..

GO Catters

Bundy was only one wanted to keep

 

[Gunstall555]

It's not because he won't want to leave adelaide, it's not because we're going to win a premiership.
It's so simple yet everyone seems so fanaticised with the thought of happy paddy at their club that they don't realise it.

Paddy is a RESTRICTED free agent, meaning the crows can match any offer placed. In the past years we have lost a considerable amount of talent gunston, davis, and most recently tippet. Tippet was on a 900K contract, I don't know the exact amounts of davis and gunston but i would imagine they weren't "cheap". Not only that but we have a considerable amount of retirees next year, thomson, reiley, pods. And If I'm not mistaken we havnt exactly Brocken the back on anyone. You can argue eddie but he is being touted the one of if not the best deal of last trade period. Back on topic adelaide could potetially have 1M+ spare cap space to tip off paddys 650K contract and still have resign sloane and possibly sign another good player,

So unless your club is willing to absouluetly bust the bank on what would have to be the best deal on afl football history you may as well stop with these "operation get paddy" type threads

The only way I could see Paddy as a Hawk next year is if 2 of Burgoyne, Mitchell & Hodge called it quits along with maybe Lake and Hale, otherwise it isn't going to happen (and I don't even think it would happen even then).

Just to help you out with something though, citing Gunston as an example of a 'not cheap' player, all players recruited through the national draft are put on fixed 2 year contracts - as Gunston was a 2nd rounder I doubt he would have been on much more than 100k. Losing Bock on the other hand would have helped regarding the teams salary cap.

One thing to keep in mind is that it isn't that easy to say player X is on $1m or close to it so when he retires we can buy another player worth the same. First thing veterans are entitled to an additional 118k that sits outside the salary cap. Second, smart clubs in contention are quite good at convincing players to stay for unders, but smart players and player managers agree to the terms on the conditions that only if other star players are retained. One example that comes to mind is Joel Selwood/Gary Ablett, I believe Joel signed a contract for unders, but on the proviso that if Gary left he'd get a significant pay increase.

It will be hard for a club to get their hands on Paddy, no doubt - the only scenario I see this happening is if a club offers a Franklin type deal (backended waiting for stars to retire), or if a club is of the belief two pretty expensive players won't be around for the next season. At a guess I'd say Paddy is still evaluating his options. If Adelaide are 7-4 or 8-3 half way through the season I wouldn't be surprised if he stayed. If Adelaide are 4-7 or even 5-6 I think he might be gone.

 

[WWSD]

It's either Adelaide or Geelong in 2016 for Dangerfield.