Famous DT Coaches Thread 2011 (Part 2)

[normski]

whats the story with the warne dawg teams: one coached by warnie, the other by lachie. one and the same person?

 

[Buddyman]

Tarquin went bang this weekend cracking out a 2300+ and moving to ~500th...
He is moving in on a top 100 onslaught once again
Sure payed to not have GAJ in round 16

 

[Jobe3votes]

don't know if it should be posted in here but here goes

LIONS PLAYER DREAM TEAM RANKINGS
131. Patfull’s Posse (Joel Patfull) - 31,656 (↑15)
148. Richy’s Rockets (Daniel Rich) - 31,562 (↓9)
332. Todd’s Titans (Todd Banfield) - 29,539 (-)
358. Bewick’s Bandits (Rohan Bewick) - 29,198 (↑2)
420. Boonj’s Bandits (Ash McGrath) - 28,017 (↑16)
461. Get Around Golbs (Mitch Golby) - 27,197 (↓6)
486. Rocky’s Rebels (Tom Rockliff) - 26,640 (↑3)
514. Clarky’s Kings (Mitch Clark) - 25,787 (↑8)
545. The Incredibles (Josh Green) - 24,480 (↑3)
549. The Wolf Pack (Claye Beams) - 24,351 (-)

I never knew they had this many in the dreamteam competition. Seems to me that all are average, but must also say that all are better than me at this stage, only cos I had 5 zero's and ablett as captain, lost 13k spots he he

 

[LemmingMaster]

Tarquin went bang this weekend cracking out a 2300+ and moving to ~500th...
He is moving in on a top 100 onslaught once again
Sure payed to not have GAJ in round 16

This was one of those rounds when the big names that have been lifting people up the rankings had a bad week and I did not own them.

The 3 levels of scoring seemed to be this.

1. Those with Ablett (C)
2. Those with Ablett
3. Those without Ablett

I only really got smashed with Petrie this week and did not have the likes of Broughton smashing out huge scores for the pack. I will go backwards again this week when Suckling, Puopolo, Mitchell, Franklin get rested and those people get back Broughton, Fyfe, Pavlich.....

I'm strongly considering spending some of my $114k and 5 trades this weekend and increase my cover for the run home. Maybe something like 1 spare trade per 2 remaining rounds is a good concept? Who really knows what late season chaos will happen with Collingwood, Geelong, WCE and Co start to rest their stars for the finals.

 

[BiTeGumsux]

Who really knows what late season chaos will happen with Collingwood, Geelong, WCE and Co start to rest their stars for the finals.

Im not sure how much resting will take place this year, its quite hard to gauge. I say this because there is strong competition for the number 1 mantle between Geelong and Collingwood. I fight to make the top 4 between Hawks, Eagles and Carlton.

While we all know how competitive and close the 6-11 teams are on the ladder.

The team im most worried about is Geelong, they may find themselves as only able to finish 2nd which could mean resting a few players especially older players. Also hawks in R24 vs Gold coast looms as a dangerous week for resting players depending on where they sit in the final week. Lets hope they need to win to keep a top 4 spot in that coming round.

 

[mollyfud]

Im not sure how much resting will take place this year, its quite hard to gauge. I say this because there is strong competition for the number 1 mantle between Geelong and Collingwood. I fight to make the top 4 between Hawks, Eagles and Carlton.

While we all know how competitive and close the 6-11 teams are on the ladder.

The team im most worried about is Geelong, they may find themselves as only able to finish 2nd which could mean resting a few players especially older players. Also hawks in R24 vs Gold coast looms as a dangerous week for resting players depending on where they sit in the final week. Lets hope they need to win to keep a top 4 spot in that coming round.

Agreed on the Hawks R24! Best case for DT is that we need a percentage hit as well as win!

 

[LemmingMaster]

Not sure that Collingwood will really care if they finish 1st or 2nd on the ladder, both results mean that get home finals throughout the finals. I think I read an article saying they plan to rest their stars, Swan stated something along those lines.

Geelong have been rotating players constantly anyway, not sure they would not give a Chapman, Bartel, SJ, Enright..... a rest before the finals.

 

[pauldrc]

Geelong have been rotating players constantly anyway, not sure they would not give a Chapman, Bartel, SJ, Enright..... a rest before the finals.

With the round 22 bye they might not need too, but still, you never know....

 

[LemmingMaster]

With the round 22 bye they might not need too, but still, you never know....

That is true, but they've still been giving some 50/50 players a rest here and there. I guess the crystal ball will have to tell all, mine is on the blink at the moment.

As for my team, I have not really been posting in here because I've not traded for a few weeks. It has been tough sitting on 5 trades and $114,000 but I hope that it has been worth it in the long run.

Not sure I will be able to last another week without trading. I have just come up with a new concept, maybe the concept is designed based on what I want to do.

I almost plan to have 1 trade left for every two rounds, there are 8 rounds to go and I have 5 trades, this means that I can allow myself one trade this week. I still hope to maintain some cash reserves for future LTI trades.

Assuming I have no LTI's this week, this upgrade will potentially be a cover trade, just giving myself some further depth.

 

[dylan123]

Assuming I have no LTI's this week, this upgrade will potentially be a cover trade, just giving myself some further depth.

It will be an interesting one to look back on at the end of the year with those that did cover trades and whether it was early (when they saw value in certain players) or later (after they had finished their best 22) and how their rankings finish off compared to those that didn't bother.

I focused a fair bit on my cover and so far, whilst its worked, I don't think it's worked as well as I had planned...

 

[BiTeGumsux]

Not sure that Collingwood will really care if they finish 1st or 2nd on the ladder, both results mean that get home finals throughout the finals. I think I read an article saying they plan to rest their stars, Swan stated something along those lines.

Geelong have been rotating players constantly anyway, not sure they would not give a Chapman, Bartel, SJ, Enright..... a rest before the finals.

I think clubs such as Collingwood will care if they finish 1st or 2nd. Its a bit of bragging rights and gives a mental edge leading into finals time. I can tell you now, Collingwood wont be happy to finish 2nd.

No doubt the pies will be looking to rest some stars and it could well be the week they play Gold coast. With byes situated in rounds 7 and 13 they now find that they play GC at the perfect time for another rest in round 18 after the round against Carlton which no doubt will take a bit out of the players.

Rest to star players in rounds 7,13,18 than a lead up of 6 weeks into finals a win in the qualifying final to give them another rest just seems like they couldnt get it any better and is no doubt there plan.

I wonder how much players like Daisy, Pendles, Swan care about missing games when they are all decent chances of a brownlow (daisy suspended). I know they would prefer a premiership, but i cant see them taking a likening to it, if they are right to play.

@LemminMaster
From what i remember you have 5 trades left and no doubt already have strong backup depth. But surely you must have thought about using these trades earlier or now to get some guns into that D8,M7 and F8 spots. These players basically play every week due to byes and end up being the cover when you get injuries aswell. So even if you are to get an LTI you already have that backup player on the bench ready to replace them.

 

[LemmingMaster]

It will be an interesting one to look back on at the end of the year with those that did cover trades and whether it was early (when they saw value in certain players) or later (after they had finished their best 22) and how their rankings finish off compared to those that didn't bother.

I focused a fair bit on my cover and so far, whilst its worked, I don't think it's worked as well as I had planned...

I actually think this year I made a mistake in my upgrade process, I looked to obtain depth early and should have gone for scoring power and then traded into depth when required. Once again it is my risk avoidance that has cost me some positions. Some average initial team selections (Didak, Ryder, Stanton, Montagna) and poor rookie and captaincy choices have also played their part.

Still next year, I think I will go for scoring power before attempting to fix depth issues. If required I will trade into depth at the middle to end of the season.

@LemminMaster
From what i remember you have 5 trades left and no doubt already have strong backup depth. But surely you must have thought about using these trades earlier or now to get some guns into that D8,M7 and F8 spots. These players basically play every week due to byes and end up being the cover when you get injuries aswell. So even if you are to get an LTI you already have that backup player on the bench ready to replace them.

5 Trades and $114,000 in the bank.

I have what I thought was strong depth in two positions, but things change.

F8/M7 - This was Sylvia, but it has now become Didak. Both options are playing like dog ****! So the depth is a little average.

I've skimped on the defensive end, basically having to play a minimum of two of the following players every week.

Heppell, Hibberd, Otten, Puopolo, Jacobs

Now I've been meaning to upgrade these positions, but I thought the production of Heppell and one of the other players has been close enough to premium scoring.

I guess I was conservative with my upgrades and would prefer to maintain trades and spare cash over upgrading my backline.

I can almost do my cover trade and potentially turn a Puopolo to a Shaw? Just some more fun to consider.

I've been a little time poor this year and my DT desire has decreased due to work life and real life.

 

[mollyfud]

I think those not having upgraded 6/7th Backs have been the winners! I hoped that going strong in my backline may have been a difference over other teams and given me points but the emergence of the back rookies (Poppy,Hibberd,Lower,Stanley,etc) has mean I have gain nothing for these trades!

I am interested in the idea of 1 trade per 2 rounds. I am looking at my 4 trades left thinking that baring LTIs, I may use 1 trade in the round the Cats have a bye to do a sideways trade and possibly do another sideways trade in round 23 (Carlton) and hope to have 2 trades for round 24 issues!

I would have loved to have had the cash to go from Didak to Jack Stevens last week, but couldn't do it, and didn't want to use two trades to do it this early/late in the season!

 

[dylan123]

I actually think this year I made a mistake in my upgrade process, I looked to obtain depth early and should have gone for scoring power and then traded into depth when required. Once again it is my risk avoidance that has cost me some positions. Some average initial team selections (Didak, Ryder, Stanton, Montagna) and poor rookie and captaincy choices have also played their part.

Still next year, I think I will go for scoring power before attempting to fix depth issues. If required I will trade into depth at the middle to end of the season.

Agreed, this year I brought in Dawes and Hodge with the plan that I would move them onto my bench once the rest of my side was complete and have them coming on for premiums when they were injured/had a bye when I probably should have focused more on bringing in the best of the best (something that I thought might not be necessary with good cover this year...). I still feel my bench is far stronger then most inside the top 100 that I've seen but it's not helping me catch up to them at all...

Whilst Hodge has done better then expected, I still don't think I went about this the right way considering right now you could pick up players like Adcock (not that I would go for him at the moment), Cooney, Montagna, Brown, Didak, Sylvia etc extremely cheap and be great cover.

 

[mollyfud]

Is it just me or are others that aren't were they want to be in the position they are in now because of:
1) Forwards: I think this is the biggest issue for me. Wrong ones have been costly. Probably could narrow it down to Fyfe in many regards.
2) Not having Sandilands early. Cost me big points
3) Not having 4 Premium mids to start. This year there was value else where


Having said this, not sure how much we will be able to learn this year as no byes , 30 in the team and 20 trades next year will be totally different.

JMTC

 

[dylan123]

In a way I agree, but trading/luck plays a big part.


I know I started with Fyfe, had 4 midfield premiums and started with Sandilands (which is probably why I was in the top couple of hundred early on) but I dropped so quickly in the space of just one month and since then I haven't really got anywhere since everyone seems to have upgraded very similarly meaning it's very hard to gain points that are lost early imo.

 

[BiTeGumsux]

Luck certainly plays a massive role in how well you do. There is only so much research you can do.

I think now that the top 2-5k know how to trade to maximise scoring potential and are just waiting for that lucky year, where they hit the Knights, Adcock, Fyfe, Curnow, Libba, Shiels, Suckling ect type players and get luck with trading. eg: bringing in Didak seemed fine he became cheap due to a poor start which was affected by an interrupted preseason, but than you bring him in and he gets injured and continues to score badly. I guess people could have waited to see if he put up good scores consistently for 2-3 weeks before buying him in.

Trading really at the end of the day is mathmatics with a bit of footy knowledge whilst it also involves a lot of luck.

 

[LemmingMaster]

Luck certainly plays a massive role in how well you do.

Trading really at the end of the day is mathmatics with a bit of footy knowledge whilst it also involves a lot of luck.

I will always hate this thought process, that luck has a huge role. I can say that I've had my fair share of crap luck in some ways. I know we all have our sob story, but I will show you some average luck/bad concepts.

Starting team luck/bad choices.

Toy, Coad (Not sure you would consider Goddard a bad choice)
Foley, Stanton, Montagna
Ryder
Didak, Richardson

Bad luck/bad choice

2 zero's due to byes and late outs.
Chapman * 2 and Boyd captaincy selections when scoring 90's and 70.
Didak scoring luck a tool
Upgrading to Colin and watching him score 60's
Trading into Selwood and then 4 weeks later or so, him getting rubbed out.
Starting B Smith one week and he gets subbed for 11 points.
Starting Jacobs one week and he decides to score ~45 when either side he scores 96 and 80ish.
Foley having the runs in the first week!

Now after saying all this, I feel that I'm in a good enough position with 5 trades and $114,000 left and ranked roughly 550th. I hope to finish in the top 200 for the third year in a row. Not sure I've been kissed on the private parts anymore than someone else.

 

[dylan123]

I think luck is a massive factor this season, much more then any other season of DT I've ever played. We all get hit with good and bad luck during the season, but it's just how much/how little you get of each which can really determine your rankings.

The sub rule has meant people are even luckier/unlucky when their players get subbed or the ones they don't get subbed off. I guess you could say that it all evens out at the end of the day but I don't believe it gets to the stage where it is evened out.

There are plenty of situations where just a little bit of luck can gain you 100 points + where it all adds up come the end of the season. Last week for example, I looked at my captain options and I planned to give Ablett the big C considering his history against the Swans but luckily for me, I forgot to actually put the C on him and Swan remained as my captain, I gained 125 points more then a lot of other people. And you can look at this the other way, Ablett's form was amazing coming off a 175DT game (lowest score in his past 5 games was 118DT) and his last 5 game average against Sydney was 142.2DT. Now for people to get his 23 as captain is a massive kick to the guts and all you can do is put that down as bad luck.

We now have plenty of 50/50 decisions with our rookies when our premiums have a bye/injured and a little bit of bad luck and your rookie is the sub for the team.


This has been apart of fantasy sports since the beginning (although I believe it has increased a lot this season due to the sub rule) and with a bit more luck then the majority can mean plenty of positions in your overall ranking.

 

[LemmingMaster]

@dylan, it is always easy to pin point the bad luck calls.

What about those times when you had a 50/50 call and picked the correct option? Do you add that to your points gained section?

Those people that had I Smith when he banged out 118 or so points, that is luck, I bet they don't talk heaps about that moment, but they certainly remember the 29 point Ablett bad luck moment.

 

[NT.Thunder]

I'm no DT expert or Super Coach and I've been a strong advocate of luck having nothing or very little to do with Fantasy Footy over the years; however this year has changed my thought process and has had opposite effects in my SC & DT teams.

Early on my SC team was killing it.....Top 100 since round 3 and cruising along very nicely......then Mundy, Selwood, Sandi, Grimes, Bartel, Ablett and Boomer all pull up lame...Oh well, tough t***ies and deal with it...But the issue here is that guys like Selwood, Mundy, Grimes, Bartel and Ablett all injured themselves in teh 1st qtr or 5 minutes of the match meaning not only have we lost a player but a collective 600 odd SC points due to injury....To put that in perspective my SC team would now be ranked 22nd overall and not 285th....(granted other teams would be in sim position)

On the flip side my DT has only had to endure Grimes, Bartel, Ablett & Sandi and has managed to claw it's way up to 22nd on the fortune of others bad luck.......

The 50/50 calls are really important this year, early on the ROK/Sylvia, the Ablett/Boyd, the Rioli/Fyfe are all season breakers to some extant.

I've learnt more this year through bad luck and injuries then I have over the previous years and it still comes back to trusting your gut which is something i've always struggled with.

This is why guys like Improptu do well because they can put the blinkers on and say 'you know what, F U! Goddard is not a must have in your starting team, i'm going to be different' and back himself.

My gut pre-season told me that Fyfe was going to be right up there but I still followed others and now come round 17 i'm looking like bringing him in.

If you're not scared to fail in DT/SC then you're more chance to win the thing overall where as i'll punish myself week in week out because i didnt pick up Gaz in round 11

 

[dylan123]

@dylan, it is always easy to pin point the bad luck calls.

What about those times when you had a 50/50 call and picked the correct option? Do you add that to your points gained section?

Those people that had I Smith when he banged out 118 or so points, that is luck, I bet they don't talk heaps about that moment, but they certainly remember the 29 point Ablett bad luck moment.

Yeah I agree, it goes both ways and we normally remember the bad moments more.

I guess it's how one defines good/bad luck to another.

Last season I did a double downgrade of Rockliff and Pods before their price rises, do I put that down to good luck or backing my own judgement? Rockliff's last 12 games he averaged 105.58 which would have been a big reason for me finishing as high as I did. I thought that he could get an alright average if given the right opportunities in the side although his job security was shaky, but in no way did I expect him to come out and average figures like that. Do I put that down to good luck or what? I consider myself lucky that I jumped on him whilst many missed out but is that viewed differently with you/others?

I'm no DT expert or Super Coach and I've been a strong advocate of luck having nothing or very little to do with Fantasy Footy over the years; however this year has changed my thought process and has had opposite effects in my SC & DT teams.

Early on my SC team was killing it.....Top 100 since round 3 and cruising along very nicely......then Mundy, Selwood, Sandi, Grimes, Bartel, Ablett and Boomer all pull up lame...Oh well, tough t***ies and deal with it...But the issue here is that guys like Selwood, Mundy, Grimes, Bartel and Ablett all injured themselves in teh 1st qtr or 5 minutes of the match meaning not only have we lost a player but a collective 600 odd SC points due to injury....To put that in perspective my SC team would now be ranked 22nd overall and not 285th....(granted other teams would be in sim position)

And surely you would put those scores down to a bit of bad luck because had of they played to the 3rd-4th quarter you probably would have got about 75+ points more for each player.

Fwiw, I started with Grimes and I don't view it as bad luck that I had to use a trade on him getting injured as his durability has been terrible and that is the risk I run with, but his final score I believe I can put down as a bit of bad luck personally.

The 50/50 calls are really important this year, early on the ROK/Sylvia, the Ablett/Boyd, the Rioli/Fyfe are all season breakers to some extant.

Agreed, Boyd v Montagna is a huge one for me personally as I believed they would average a very similar number yet Montagna has had injury problems all season and struggled to score the numbers he had in the previous two seasons.

This is why guys like Improptu do well because they can put the blinkers on and say 'you know what, F U! Goddard is not a must have in your starting team, i'm going to be different' and back himself.

My gut pre-season told me that Fyfe was going to be right up there but I still followed others and now come round 17 i'm looking like bringing him in.

If you're not scared to fail in DT/SC then you're more chance to win the thing overall where as i'll punish myself week in week out because i didnt pick up Gaz in round 11

I agree, The Baxter is another that comes to mind with not starting with Goddard at the start of the season which I thought was madness personally yet he would have been able to upgrade to him for around 150k cheaper then how much I payed for him which is a massive win.

I do believe you have to follow your gut but at the same time, I don't think you should be avoiding these players on the reason that everyone else has them as I think that is a common mistake many make when trying to be unqiue.

 

[Robbo88]

If you're not scared to fail in DT/SC then you're more chance to win the thing overall

This is what i believe to be the most important line. This is mainly down to taking a punt on starting selection, but also comes into play in the season, like bringing in fyfe after 4-5 games would have been a pretty bold move as he had increased quite alot of cash and it was skeptical whether he could keep it up or not, if you picked him up then fyfe went back to scoring 60-70 every match you would of severely hindered your side, but as we know he's gone onto ave ~100 putting you way in front of those who avoided him, its these choices that put you at the head of the pack or not in the long run. I think luck does play a factor week in week out, but generally over a full season everyone would of 'lost' out just as much as the next guy (or felt like they have atleast).

Getting back to the original point, if your scared to take a risk for fear of it failing and you losing ground on the pack then your never going to actually make any significant ground up on the pack. I myself am a prime example of this, i am not a risk taker and inherently have missed out on some high scoring players for fear they would either get injured or not be able to keep it up, we all make these judgement calls on every trade we make, so while a trade with all things being equal would of been excellent turns to crap because the person suffers a freak injury or suspension IS bad luck, it doesn't completely control your season.

Planning > Luck in the long run

 

[Walesy]

Luck plays a fairly large part in it, so long as we are all talking about the same thing.

Selwood for example, he was an unlucky case- rarely misses a game, let alone through suspension and in this year alone, he's been concussed in the 1st quarter, missed a game through it and got suspended for 4. Unlucky for his owners.

Grimes on the other hand, I don't see someone who is so injury prone going down as anything but commuppence. I know I jumped on him early on the belief that while he will require a trade-out at sometime, his form leading to that point will put me behind the ball if I didn't have him. Wasn't to be- Not bad luck, just a bad pick.

Any time your Captain goes down in the 1st, don't care how prone the guy is, that's bad luck, but then trading into Chapman after his first bye only for him to miss games and generally suck- is that bad luck or just a bad trade? Not sure on him.

In reality, the eventual winner will likely get hit by one or two less bullets than the rest of us- but will still cop their fair shake of the bad-luck stick- in the meantime though, they would have started with an excellent squad and have traded excellently throughout the season.

In short, I reckon that bad luck can sink your season, but good luck is not nearly enough to win it.

 

[LemmingMaster]

If we're talking about the difference between winning and 100th, there are elements of luck.

If we're talking about the difference between finishing in the top 2000 and not, then I think it has very little to do with luck.