Hine......a very revealing interview

[Slattery_20]

An outstanding thread topic.

I'm not sure what moneyball is, but i'm presuming it relates to value for money and role playing based on key team KPIs. The other element which is interesting and important is the game style and how that relates to list management.

Basically strip away any judgement based on subjectivity.
Forget about normal stats you'd use.
ie, a complete blank sheet.

And then do the whole thing as a data analysis exercise:
Figure out that winning teams do W and X stats well but not Y and Z stats; so we won't bother about Y/Z at all if there's a cheaper player available who's just slightly better in W/X.

With that said; I'm not sure how deeply any AFL team is really going to be basing recruitment off that; or indeed how drafting these guys really differs to plain old drafting guys to fill spots ("need").

For me the whole concept is flawed and has it backwards. You use statistics as a supplement to live scouting, not as the primary method of scouting.

That's the accepted norm, and FWIW I agree, but the whole point of 'Moneyball' was the left-field-ness of it.



I don't think any club would be ballsy enough to do it TBH. Apart from anythign else, too many of the draftees are playing at far too different levels; and a lot of those levels the stats aren't all that detailed.

 

[Snoop Dog]

That's the key isn't it Snoop?

Fact is even if there was a draft, if there were no salary cap, teams like Carlton (and us of course) would just wait and get the best players later whatever the cost. Sure we'd get a few guns via the draft, but we'd also top up with cold hard cash when needed. I can understand why Carlton were successful during the period of 60-80s with this tactic, topping up their zones with interstate champs. McHale's concept of team first unfortunately was outdated, and led to some real bad management decisions by the Pies even from the 1940s. But I digress...

For a team to punch above their weight, sort of like the Premier League in soccer, you can be a side that develops or a side that buys. The As aimed to develop players, and then from the profits (and/or results) of that development get a crack at the big time. They weren't far off.

But yeah, regarding the first point....bring on free agency. Not ideal for us now (due to us being at the very pointy end) but has the potential to be fantastic for us going forward.

good post

 

[HARKER]

Say whatever you want about the Moneyball theory, but it sure is a fascinating read.

You'll be able to watch the movie soon enough also.
Brad Pitt starring.

An interesting concept that does have a few shortfalls, but will be refined as we go along.

 

[Trojan Pies]

I think the official term at Collingwood is Desire Indicators, but yes, my understanding is that they're the 1%ers; tackles, chases, spoils, shepherds, blocks, etc.

Beat me to the punch - yep Desire Indicators. Developed by Senior Football Analyst, Marcus Wagner (also somewhat known for coming up with the idea for Trav to try the iPod with crowd noise).

The theory behind the measurement was to give the forwards a level playing field when assessing defensive influences on a game. Obviously, it is far easier for backs to rack up a score based upon the more traditional measurements like spoils and tackles so giving the forwards weighted credit for their efforts was required (apparently they b!tched a lot about it when doing game reviews).

This measurement is also used as a combined team score when reviewing each game – i.e. they total up all the DIs across the playing group and then reference it against their benchmark to determine whether they performed well as a team. I learned this all this around two years ago and given Hine’s reference to it in the interview, it seems it is still one of the most coveted player and team performance measurements down at the Westpac Centre.

 

[Bloben]

Doesn't look too bad actually. Will try and read the book first though

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1210166/

 

[TradeDraft]

Doesn't look too bad actually. Will try and read the book first though

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1210166/

I am definitely going to Watch it.

Book Here:

http://highway6.com/alexandria/mbart.pdf

 

[TheFreshBanana]

Beat me to the punch - yep Desire Indicators. Developed by Senior Football Analyst, Marcus Wagner (also somewhat known for coming up with the idea for Trav to try the iPod with crowd noise).

The theory behind the measurement was to give the forwards a level playing field when assessing defensive influences on a game. Obviously, it is far easier for backs to rack up a score based upon the more traditional measurements like spoils and tackles so giving the forwards weighted credit for their efforts was required (apparently they b!tched a lot about it when doing game reviews).

This measurement is also used as a combined team score when reviewing each game – i.e. they total up all the DIs across the playing group and then reference it against their benchmark to determine whether they performed well as a team. I learned this all this around two years ago and given Hine’s reference to it in the interview, it seems it is still one of the most coveted player and team performance measurements down at the Westpac Centre.

Wow where did you learn this?

And interesting you guys mentioned Moneyball, I remember reading an article about Brad Pitt right before this thread, and they mentioned Moneyball... didn't think twice about it lol

 

[Al Scorcho]

I am definitely going to Watch it.

Book Here:

http://highway6.com/alexandria/mbart.pdf

cheers mate

 

[Trojan Pies]

Wow where did you learn this?

Have a couple of friends that work down at the club...and now add to that a former coach of mine, Dale Tapping, who coached me at OBGSFC and is one of the new recruits to the Pies coaching panel.

 

[lgarth80]

I also think the DIs were hinted at if not mentioned in "Side by Side"

I'm pretty sure that the forwards were always pretty pissed off at the backs getting the high ratings

 

[well left]

Really intrigued by the comments about Mooney starting forward instead of back like we have done with previous Irish recruits - especially in light of MM's comments about Marty Clarke.

Have we already seen a shift in thinking under Buckley? Marty was always a forward in the gaelic game but MM wanted him to learn from the backline. It may be that Bucks opinion is that the talent is played where it is at its most natural and you work with the flair and talent at your disposal whereas MM may have had differing ideas.

It would not surprise me in the least if Buckley's requests to Hine are more specific in what he wants then what Malthouse may have indicated.

 

[blaze036]

With elliot and mooney recruited to be small forwards.. does this mean Fasolo goes more into the midfield? heard him mentioned he was targetting moving to the midfield once he got his engine up. Could be interesting, dont really see him being a high possesion getter (but averaged 22 possies for WA i think) and would be a very dangerous goal kicking midfielder if he could develop there.

Got bulk speed and great kicking so could work really well in the midfield if his other areas where developed

 

[Ed D]

I think next year could be a little early for Fasolo to spend too much time in the midfield, unless it was as an outside player or drifting in and out. He has the skills, he needs to build on his contested ball use and build up his fitness base like all young players do. Plus is there room for him there? Probably not.

 

[blaze036]

I think next year could be a little early for Fasolo to spend too much time in the midfield, unless it was as an outside player or drifting in and out. He has the skills, he needs to build on his contested ball use and build up his fitness base like all young players do. Plus is there room for him there? Probably not.

Well with Fasolo and Krakour the small forwards is there room for elliot and mooney? amoungst others

 

[TradeDraft]

Well with Fasolo and Krakour the small forwards is there room for elliot and mooney? amoungst others

Beams and Sidebottom will probably go in the Middle

 

[Quicky]

I think next year could be a little early for Fasolo to spend too much time in the midfield, unless it was as an outside player or drifting in and out. He has the skills, he needs to build on his contested ball use and build up his fitness base like all young players do. Plus is there room for him there? Probably not.

Yep his fitness and defensive game* for the half forward line. Too early for midfield. Hell Beams hasn't even cracked that yet.

*Or are we calling forward defensive work DI's these days?

 

[Ed D]

Well with Fasolo and Krakour the small forwards is there room for elliot and mooney? amoungst others

Possibly not, at least next year. It really depends on how they play. Two of them we haven't seen and the other two have only had one year at the club and no training at Arizona. They can't all play the same position which is probably what you're getting at, but that doesn't mean they all play at the same time either.

 

[motr]

I am definitely going to Watch it.

Book Here:

http://highway6.com/alexandria/mbart.pdf

Cheers Dave, started reading the book and couldn't put it down.

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

Our forward defence was better in 2010 than it was this year. Buckley was the forwards' coach in 2010 and I think he had a massive influence over our forward pressure. In 2011, Bucks moved to other duties and the pressure went down a little.

Was saying this literally all year.

I don't think people realise how different we looked on field this year without Bucks as an actual ON FIELD coach. We were only winning games in 5-10 minute bursts. Maybe a quarter at best (there were exceptions here and there).

With Bucks taking over the whole side effectively, and putting such a strong emphasis on actual skills, I expect a much better side next year, hopefully with a re-jigged gameplan.

 

[TheFreshBanana]

Krakeour will spend more time in the midfield. Stated in a video that they plan to use Krakeour more in the midfield.

 

[Quicky]

Krakeour will spend more time in the midfield. Stated in a video that they plan to use Krakeour more in the midfield.

I think that is a good move. As good as Krakouer is a crumber he is limited in his defensive work, largely due to his pace. We lacked some quality in contested situations when we most needed it this year and Krakouer could really help out in this regard.

I think Didak may see more midfield time as well with a bit of a change up of our forward line especially the smalls down there.

 

[TheFreshBanana]

Yeah it's always been planned to use Krakeour in the midfield, I reckon.

The only setback was that Krakeour couldn't make it to Arizona to do his pre-season. He is probably the player that I'm most excited about next year.

 

[samcam]

would didak work in the same role as davis has been used this year?

 

[Ed D]

would didak work in the same role as davis has been used this year?

No chance, his one on one defending is almost non existent. He'll have a full preseason then play more in the midfield like he did in 2010.

 

[Mansons Haircut]

For those of you discovering Moneyball I'd also highly recommend The Wages Of Wins.