Gillard's AWU/Wilson past about to haunt her?

[pjcrows]

Some bright spark said "there are no facts, there are just interpretations".

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)​

​

November 10/11 & 17/18, 2012 (Face)​

ALP 36.5​

L-NP 38.5 ​

Greens 11.5​

Others 13.5​

​

November 27-29, 2012 (Phone)​

ALP 36.5​

L-NP 44.5 ​

Greens 8.5​

Others 10.5​

The Greens vote (and Indies) appears to have been smashed and Liberals picked up the votes.

Morgan phone and face to face polls cannot be compared.

 

[romeoh]

The underlying issue here is union corruption and Labor corruption in NSW and by extension Labor movement culture.

If and when Thompson is charged in addition to his Fed Court appearance next year the AWU scandal 17 years ago will be placed in that context.

Doubtful -its just not that big a deal to begin with, and from what I have seen, by and large, the public couldn't give a toss. By all means, keep shifting the goal posts everytime the libs fail to gain ground though.

 

[GuruJane]

Morgan phone and face to face polls cannot be compared.

Crows, it should always be remembered in relation to Morgan F to F, that over the last 4 elections it has OVERestimated the Labor primary by an average of 3.6% and UNDERestimated coalition primary by a similar %.

 

[pjcrows]

Crows, it should always be remembered in relation to Morgan F to F, that over the last 4 elections it has OVERestimated the Labor primary by an average of 3.6% and UNDERestimated coalition primary by a similar %.

Absolutely - I said as much two days ago in Polls Thread.

The latest one is a phone poll, which came at 51-49 Coalition, in trend with Newspoll.

My suggestion was, you can't take a Morgan face to face poll and compare any shift either way to a phone poll.

 

[Upton Sinclair]

Crows, it should always be remembered in relation to Morgan F to F, that over the last 4 elections it has OVERestimated the Labor primary by an average of 3.6% and UNDERestimated coalition primary by a similar %.

Its the movement and how it fits with the broader trend that matters on Morgan polls (hell, with any poll this far out from an election), rather than end number.

 

[Brown Bottle]

Has it happened yet?

 

[Gough]

Has it happened yet?

Yep, we've all had a good chat and decided that Julia Gillard is leading the worst government in the history of the universe, and if you don't agree with that you are a communist.

 

[cancat]

Polls are like climate science: you're doing it wrong!

A. You're comparing apples and oranges (Morgan face-to-face with their telephone polls)

If Morgan's face to face polls are not consistent with their telephone polls how is it me who got this wrong? I can see how you have such faith in climate science research.

 

[ChappyUK]

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/na...axy-poll-reveals/story-fncynkc6-1226528115008

Galaxy poll says 54-46.

Only 1 in 5 say Gillard has been open and honest.

 

[Upton Sinclair]

If Morgan's face to face polls are not consistent with their telephone polls how is it me who got this wrong? I can see how you have such faith in climate science research.

And I mean how could possibly be wrong about something, that's just inconceivable so it must be the fault of statistics or physics, not that you must missed the boat and trying to interpret data you don't understand!

 

[GuruJane]

This is up there with the Tippett thread.

Anyway, Abbott's sole job was to have Gillard gone by Christmas and an early election. Gillard is still there, and will remain, and his own approvals are at rock bottom. Ever since policy became a taking point the polls have gone from a consistent 56-44 trend to a consistent 52-48 trend and closing.

Have a nice Christmas, Tony.

It's been under-reported but on Sky News Nation, last Thurs night, NSW OPP Leader John Robertson, union heavyweight, said that the association was "odd", he'd never experienced or ever heard of anyone else doing that and that re-election campaign slush funds were always done by the officials themselves just setting up a bank account and putting contributions into it.

Now Crows, the SOLE reason why Robbo was saying all that (who knows if he's lying or not) is because the NSW Right is packing the shits about the way this issue is feeding into the HSU scandal plus corruption inquiry into Labor govt putting a large no of NSW federal seats at grave risk. Significantly, it was the NSW Right that rolled the PM on the Palestine vote.
JG's position is far more vulnerable than you realise.

So sadly for you Abbott must be feeling very content going into the break that the entire last week of the parliamentary session was devoted to the issue of union corruption and the PM's involvement in it.
The story just grew more legs last week, and the NSW Right knows it.

btw - the reason the Wilson/Blewitt/Gillard asociation had to be incorporated was so that the construction companies who were going to be hit on could claim their "contributions" as tax deductions.

 

[pjcrows]

I'd be happy with Abbott remaining as leader. It's the only chance Labor has.

 

[Upton Sinclair]

It's been under-reported but on Sky News Nation, last Thurs night, NSW OPP Leader John Robertson, union heavyweight, said that the association was "odd", he'd never experienced or ever heard of anyone else doing that and that re-election campaign slush funds were always done by the officials themselves just setting up a bank account and putting contributions into it.

Now Crows, the SOLE reason why Robbo was saying all that (who knows if he's lying or not) is because the NSW Right is packing the shits about the way this issue is feeding into the HSU scandal plus corruption inquiry into Labor govt putting a large no of NSW federal seats at grave risk. Significantly, it was the NSW Right that rolled the PM on the Palestine vote.
JG's position is far more vulnerable than you realise.

So sadly for you Abbott must be feeling very content going into the break that the entire last week of the parliamentary session was devoted to the issue of union corruption and the PM's involvement in it.
The story just grew more legs last week, and the NSW Right knows it.

btw - the reason the Wilson/Blewitt/Gillard asociation had to be incorporated was so that the construction companies who were going to be hit on could claim their "contributions" as tax deductions.

Poll thread, GuruJane , keep the derp to the threads dedicated to the subject. Kthnxbye!

 

[GuruJane]

I'd be happy with Abbott remaining as leader. It's the only chance Labor has.

The same is said in reverse about Gillard. Personally I think they have both more than earned the right to lead their parties into the next election. They have a similar outlook on many aspects of major polices, most of their differences are in the means. Both of them are tough performers in parliament and in the trenches, but in office their styles are consultative, inclusive and based on high level of negotiation skills. The yin and yan of their generation.
I doubt that Abbott is as mendacious as Gillard seems - but then you have to be to survive Labor's factional system. And mendacity is not disqualification for high political office - only getting caught is .

 

[pjcrows]

The same is said in reverse about Gillard. Personally I think they have both more than earned the right to lead their parties into the next election. They have a similar outlook on many aspects of major polices, most of their differences are in the means. Both of them are tough performers in parliament and in the trenches, but in office their styles are consultative, inclusive and based on high level of negotiation skills. The yin and yan of their generation.
I doubt that Abbott is as mendacious as Gillard seems - but then you have to be to survive Labor's factional system. And mendacity is not disqualification for high political office - only getting caught is .

Both are rubbish. One is just less rubbish.

 

[tazzietiger]

Poll thread, GuruJane , keep the derp to the threads dedicated to the subject. Kthnxbye!

That post has got nothing to do with the poll thread. Its discussing a view on union accounts which has everything to do with this current Gillard AWU union slush fund saga.

 

[Upton Sinclair]

That post has got nothing to do with the poll thread. Its discussing a view on union accounts which has everything to do with this current Gillard AWU union slush fund saga.

So it is... uh, my bad?

 

[GuruJane]

Both are rubbish. One is just less rubbish.

I think you are missing the Australian Democrats.

 

[Caesar]

http://www.skynews.com.au/politics/article.aspx?id=822193

The poll, conducted for News Limited newspapers, says just one in five voters believes the prime minister was completely open and honest over her role in the Australian Workers Union scandal in the early 1990s, but a majority say it will not change their vote at the next election.

Sums it up really. Nobody believes her, but it's still a non-issue.

 

[Upton Sinclair]

http://www.skynews.com.au/politics/article.aspx?id=822193


Sums it up really. Nobody believes her, but it's still a non-issue.

Has anyone actually seen the numbers for this poll? I've looked on the Galaxy website and couldn't find anything and the articles I've seen have been scant on detail, would like to see a breakdown of all the questions. pjcrows ?

 

[pjcrows]

I will follow it up Upton. Short of time tonight.

From what I glanced at, the Galaxy questions basically invoked push-polling.

 

[Pie eyed]

Has anyone actually seen the numbers for this poll? I've looked on the Galaxy website and couldn't find anything and the articles I've seen have been scant on detail, would like to see a breakdown of all the questions. pjcrows ?

1000 were polled via telephone.
All on Alan Jones' regular contributor list no doubt.

 

[Upton Sinclair]

I will follow it up Upton. Short of time tonight.

From what I glanced at, the Galaxy questions basically invoked push-polling.

One cant help but to feel just a twinge of scepticism about polling commissioned by a company that was the torchbearer for the whole sordid affair and who has vowed not to let the issue die.

When you have such an activist and hyper partisan media on a crusade to overthrow a government they've deemed 'illegitimate'... well, let's just say push polling wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.

 

[cancat]

I'll raise you the Boulder dead miner fund mystery.

Who was the S&G lawyer who spoke there with the crim Wilson?

http://michaelsmithnews.typepad.com/files/the-boulder-mystery.pdf

Gillard's angle that she was an unwitting pawn in the whole scandal is not at all credible. It's clear from this story that she was not just sitting in an office at Slater and Gordon's acting on Wilson's instructions.

 

[harmesy 37]

The same is said in reverse about Gillard. Personally I think they have both more than earned the right to lead their parties into the next election. They have a similar outlook on many aspects of major polices, most of their differences are in the means. Both of them are tough performers in parliament and in the trenches, but in office their styles are consultative, inclusive and based on high level of negotiation skills. The yin and yan of their generation.
I doubt that Abbott is as mendacious as Gillard seems - but then you have to be to survive Labor's factional system. And mendacity is not disqualification for high political office - only getting caught is .

All three - Gillard-Craig Thomson and Obeid are up to their necks in corruption, yet somehow Gillard has earned the right to lead their party. Why not give Thomson a go at the top job? It is a merry go round of ex-union officials/mates who lead the Labor Party.

I would disagree with your comment. I don't think Gillard is fit to lead the Labor Party. Her antics in parliament only further demonstrate the bile and muck that she brings to politics. "Smear and mud buckets" etc- I swear on Thursday she mentioned those words 50 times. How many times were Julie Bishop's questions answered? none.

What qualifications has Gillard brought to the job prior to entering politics? She is qualified in setting up fraudulent funds that distributed fraudulent money to her mates (oh, apparently she didn't know it was happening/i believe fish jump to the moon too). She cost her company a major account and yet somehow she is fit to lead this country because she was deceptive and lies well...see a pattern here with her job as "prime minister".

Gillard stands for govt regulation on the media, Abbott stands for a free media, Gillard stands for bureacracy and govt controls on YOUR life, Abbott stands for individual freedoms, Gillard stands for destroying farmers lives along the murray river, Abott doesn't. I would say there are quite a few differences.