Polls Thread MkII

[tazzietiger]

More voters trust Abbott then Gillard on delivering the NDIS.

VOTERS have backed the Coalition over the national disability insurance scheme, despite supporting Labor's decision to impose a levy to pay for the policy.
A Seven News/ReachTEL poll found Opposition Leader Tony Abbott was viewed by a considerable margin as the most trusted person to deliver the scheme - the preferred choice of 57 per cent of those polled. Only 42 per cent opted for Prime Minister Julia Gillard.
The policy was also found not to be a vote winner for Labor, with 41 per cent saying they were now less likely to vote ALP compared to 26 per cent who said it made them more likely to vote for the government.
But the notion of a levy to help fund the scheme was supported - 52.5 to 33.5 per cent, according to the poll of almost 3000 people across the country after the government's announcement last week.


http://www.news.com.au/national-new...dis-poll-reveals/story-fncynjr2-1226635592172

 

[Bradesmaen]

More voters trust Abbott then Gillard on delivering the NDIS.

Of course you would trust someone who is mentally disabled to deliver a disability insurance scheme, he wants the cover as well!

 

[Dry Rot]

Of course you would trust someone who is mentally disabled to deliver a disability insurance scheme, he wants the cover as well!

Gee, you're going to be pretty disturbed yourself mid September.

 

[Stumpy Pete]

Of course you would trust someone who is mentally disabled to deliver a disability insurance scheme, he wants the cover as well!

Classy comment.

Disagree with his politics, economics and stance on social matters all you want. Calling him mentally disabled is very poor.

Regards.

S. Pete

 

[Bradesmaen]

Classy comment.

Disagree with his politics, economics and stance on social matters all you want. Calling him mentally disabled is very poor.

Regards.

S. Pete

It was a joke, based on his "nodding" when asked a hard question he can't answer

Gee, you're going to be pretty disturbed yourself mid September.

Won't be here in september, so I won't even know what has happened til October. Safe to say I'll be scouring the want ads in overseas countries as I will no longer want to live in this Country should he become PM.

 

[Caj]

It was a joke, based on his "nodding" when asked a hard question he can't answer


Won't be here in september, so I won't even know what has happened til October. Safe to say I'll be scouring the want ads in overseas countries as I will no longer want to live in this Country should he become PM.

Hope you're planning a long trip, given the potential size of the defeat Labour won't be back for at least 2 - 3 terms

 

[Gough]

http://essentialvision.com.au/category/essentialreport
Aside from showing, that if correct Labor is in for quite a pounding in September, this poll caught my eye.

Q. Compared to other developed countries, do you think Australia’s national debt is higher, lower or about the same?

Total
Vote Labor
Vote Lib/Nat
Vote Greens
Total higher
25%
17%
33%
19%
Total lower
48%
58%
39%
57%
A lot higher
9%
4%
13%
3%
A little higher
16%
13%
20%
16%
About the same
18%
16%
19%
18%
A little lower
29%
27%
28%
27%
A lot lower
19%
31%
11%
30%
Don’t know
10%
9%
8%
6%

25% of Australians and 33% Lib/Nat voters, believe that Australia's national debt was higher than other developed nations; a quite astounding level of ignorance. How detached from reality must they be to believe this? The 13% who believe it's a lot higher I'm particularly keen on meeting, they must have some new and better drugs I haven't tried yet..
Edit, that table hasn't turned out quite as I hoped, but the link is there.

 

[Refried Noodle]

http://essentialvision.com.au/category/essentialreport
Aside from showing, that if correct Labor is in for quite a pounding in September, this poll caught my eye.

25% of Australians and 33% Lib/Nat voters, believe that Australia's national debt was higher than other developed nations; a quite astounding level of ignorance. How detached from reality must they be to believe this? The 13% who believe it's a lot higher I'm particularly keen on meeting, they must have some new and better drugs I haven't tried yet..
Edit, that table hasn't turned out quite as I hoped, but the link is there.

They must the good folk who write to the Daily Telegraph editorial complaining "This country is swamped by/swimming in/drowning in/being crippled by debt".

Channel 7 had their own poll from the weekend (A 'ReachTel' poll I think it was called).

Labor was 29% (down 2%)
Coalition 48% (down 1% I think)
Green 10%
TPP was 58% (up 1%) to 42% (down 1%)

Could be wrong on some of those "% up/down" since last poll, but they weren't good for the Government considering the positive week they had.

 

[Dry Rot]

Could be wrong on some of those "% up/down" since last poll, but they weren't good for the Government considering the positive week they had.

No-one is listening to them anymore.

 

[pjcrows]

Newspoll is 56-44 and PPM unchanged. More to come.

Thanks to those posting in my sporadic absence

 

[MisterMarcus]

Poll Frenzy Day:

Essential: 56-44 up from 55-45
Newspoll: 56-44 up from 55-45
ReachTel/Ch7: 58-42 up from 57-43
Morgan: 56-44 down from 58-42.

Leaving out the correction from a very generous Morgan last time, there does appear to have been a slight movement back toward the Coalition in the past couple of weeks. It seems to be settling around 55/56 Coalition without getting much narrower.

 

[Dry Rot]

No B'OF NSW Gonski or NDIS bounce. ALP vote will collapse during the coming budget shambles.

 

[tazzietiger]

People have and have been for a while not listening to anything that Gillard or this government says.
What we normally see is polling numbers getting close in the lead up to the election. I still thought Gillard had one opportunity left to give a grand speech and to some how revive some energy for her re-election campaign and that was when calling the election but she lost that opportunity by announcing the election date 9 months in advance.

 

[DeanoT]

No B'OF NSW Gonski or NDIS bounce. ALP vote will collapse during the coming budget shambles.

I doubt the Budget will make much difference. It's not like people will see a big deficit and suddenly conclude that Swanny is a muppet after all. I reckon 55-45 is about where its at.

 

[Dry Rot]

I doubt the Budget will make much difference. It's not like people will see a big deficit and suddenly conclude that Swanny is a muppet after all. I reckon 55-45 is about where its at.

When they announce various cuts, various interest groups will come out of the woodwork ditto the indies will play up and it will end up a shambles IMO.

And the ALP will have a 2 in front of its primary vote.

 

[Windhover]

No-one is listening to them anymore.

Unless I am no one, then I refute your generalisation but I take your point. More importantly, having the advantage over you of listening to "them" I can see potential advantage in this apparent weakness.

Those simple folk who have stopped listening are actually missing out on hearing Gillard deliver a very powerful, positive message (cue Insiders interview last Sunday for example). And, since they have stopped listening, well, you never know, at 'lection time when they have to vote they might just switch off Celebrity Chef for 5 minutes and inform themselves sufficient to know, hey, that debt here is way lower than comparables overseas an other sh*t like that.

 

[Andre]

People have and have been for a while not listening to anything that Gillard or this government says.
What we normally see is polling numbers getting close in the lead up to the election. I still thought Gillard had one opportunity left to give a grand speech and to some how revive some energy for her re-election campaign and that was when calling the election but she lost that opportunity by announcing the election date 9 months in advance.

That was very much a crash or crash through strategy. If it'd built momentum back to the ALP it'd have been hailed a success. It obviously hasn't. And now when it comes time for the 'official' campaign the average voter will be long sick and tired of the months of 'governing, not campaigning' campaign it will be harder than usual to get them engaged for that last chance to avert disaster. And they'll resent the government for the long campaign to boot.

Or worse for the ALP, the early start to the campaign has had some of the voters making up their mind about who to vote for now, rather than waiting for the 'official' campaign (such distinctions meaningless to lots of people).

Whilst I expect the polls to narrow before voting day, both the effects above from the early election decision point to there being less of a tightening of votes then you'd otherwise expect. Another Gillard own goal.

 

[Dry Rot]

That was very much a crash or crash through strategy. If it'd built momentum back to the ALP it'd have been hailed a success. It obviously hasn't. And now when it comes time for the 'official' campaign the average voter will be long sick and tired of the months of 'governing, not campaigning' campaign it will be harder than usual to get them engaged for that last chance to avert disaster. And they'll resent the government for the long campaign to boot.

Or worse for the ALP, the early start to the campaign has had some of the voters making up their mind about who to vote for now, rather than waiting for the 'official' campaign (such distinctions meaningless to lots of people).

Whilst I expect the polls to narrow before voting day, both the effects above from the early election decision point to there being less of a tightening of votes then you'd otherwise expect. Another Gillard own goal.

Good analysis. I have thought the bold bit for some time. The early announcement has probably "crystallised" a lot of people's votes, and all the stuff ups since just reinforced that.

 

[GuruJane]

Aside from showing, that if correct Labor is in for quite a pounding in September, this poll caught my eye.

25% of Australians and 33% Lib/Nat voters, believe that Australia's national debt was higher than other developed nations; a quite astounding level of ignorance. How detached from reality must they be to believe this? The 13% who believe it's a lot higher I'm particularly keen on meeting, they must have some new and better drugs I haven't tried yet..
Edit, that table hasn't turned out quite as I hoped, but the link is there.

Woulda thought that only 25% erroneously thinking it was higher was a good result for electorate sanity given the TPP poll numbers, and that 48% agreeing it was lower just shows that Labor is deeply on the nose for reasons other than the gfc?

 

[GuruJane]

That was very much a crash or crash through strategy. If it'd built momentum back to the ALP it'd have been hailed a success. It obviously hasn't. And now when it comes time for the 'official' campaign the average voter will be long sick and tired of the months of 'governing, not campaigning' campaign it will be harder than usual to get them engaged for that last chance to avert disaster. And they'll resent the government for the long campaign to boot.

Or worse for the ALP, the early start to the campaign has had some of the voters making up their mind about who to vote for now, rather than waiting for the 'official' campaign (such distinctions meaningless to lots of people).

Whilst I expect the polls to narrow before voting day, both the effects above from the early election decision point to there being less of a tightening of votes then you'd otherwise expect. Another Gillard own goal.

Agree with this analysis. Could have gone other way though if the Thommo charges hadn't cruelly robbed Labor of its momentum the very day after Jules announced election date when Jukes and meeja were planning to run on Abbott ripping away "schoolkids bonus" and super contribs for low incomers.

 

[Todman]

It was a joke, based on his "nodding" when asked a hard question he can't answer
Won't be here in September, so I won't even know what has happened til October. Safe to say I'll be scouring the want ads in overseas countries as I will no longer want to live in this Country should he become PM.

Well that is good news.

 

[Todman]

Poll Frenzy Day:

Essential: 56-44 up from 55-45
Newspoll: 56-44 up from 55-45
ReachTel/Ch7: 58-42 up from 57-43
Morgan: 56-44 down from 58-42.

These polling group all base the preference flows according to the last election . Which basically mean't that the ALP got 60% of the other votes. (Greens and Ind). given that 3 independants sided with the government. This time around this won't happen, the 3 Wilkie, Windsor and Oakeshott will probably loss their seats, (if insider ALP polling is right) that will mean that for the ALP that they will only get most of the Green prefs there in 2013 I'm tipping the ALP to only get 40% of the second preferences.

therefore
now: ALP 32% L+NP 48% Others 20% = TPP ALP 32+12=44% L+NP 48+8 56%
Sept: ALP 32% L+NP 48% Others 20% = TPP ALP 32+8 =40% L+NP 48+12=60%

And 60% is repeated in the Senate then Abbott will win enough seats not to worry about the Greens.

To win a state senate seat you need 14.29% 4 seats = 57.1%
A reduced ALP vote won't leave enough to carry over to get a Green across the line.

 

[Todman]

Gillard deliver a very powerful, positive message (cue Insiders interview last Sunday for example).

What was her powerful positive message?

 

[Relativity]

And, since they have stopped listening, well, you never know, at 'lection time when they have to vote they might just switch off Celebrity Chef for 5 minutes and inform themselves sufficient to know, hey, that debt here is way lower than comparables overseas an other sh*t like that.

I think you overestimate how many of the electorate care about our debt relative to overseas. When it comes to ticking the box, for good or bad, people will be swayed by their personal circumstances and fears. Not that we're better off than Greece.

 

[Inferno]

These polling group all base the preference flows according to the last election . Which basically mean't that the ALP got 60% of the other votes. (Greens and Ind). given that 3 independants sided with the government. This time around this won't happen, the 3 Wilkie, Windsor and Oakeshott will probably loss their seats, (if insider ALP polling is right) that will mean that for the ALP that they will only get most of the Green prefs there in 2013 I'm tipping the ALP to only get 40% of the second preferences.

therefore
now: ALP 32% L+NP 48% Others 20% = TPP ALP 32+12=44% L+NP 48+8 56%
Sept: ALP 32% L+NP 48% Others 20% = TPP ALP 32+8 =40% L+NP 48+12=60%

And 60% is repeated in the Senate then Abbott will win enough seats not to worry about the Greens.

To win a state senate seat you need 14.29% 4 seats = 57.1%
A reduced ALP vote won't leave enough to carry over to get a Green across the line.

So... we should go against a tried and more accurate measurement and go with your guesstimate then?

Are you suggesting that the ALP preferences from the Greens drop by 20%? because that would mean the Coalition would be getting a pretty unbelievable proportion of Greens preferences. Or maybe that they drop 20% from the Others/Ind vote from which IIRC they only normally get around 40% of anyway? Plenty of the Others vote is minor right wing parties, and I doubt a significant amount of people who voted Ind and preferenced Labor in 2010 would vote Ind and preference the Coalition when they could just vote for the Coalition if they want the ALP out.