- Jan 13, 2001
- 15,892
- 6,917
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
- Other Teams
- Man City
People inside the Liberal Party have wet dreams about preferences going 50/50 60/40 and they be away with the fairies for months.These polling group all base the preference flows according to the last election . Which basically mean't that the ALP got 60% of the other votes. (Greens and Ind). given that 3 independants sided with the government. This time around this won't happen, the 3 Wilkie, Windsor and Oakeshott will probably loss their seats, (if insider ALP polling is right) that will mean that for the ALP that they will only get most of the Green prefs there in 2013 I'm tipping the ALP to only get 40% of the second preferences.
therefore
now: ALP 32% L+NP 48% Others 20% = TPP ALP 32+12=44% L+NP 48+8 56%
Sept: ALP 32% L+NP 48% Others 20% = TPP ALP 32+8 =40% L+NP 48+12=60%
And 60% is repeated in the Senate then Abbott will win enough seats not to worry about the Greens.
To win a state senate seat you need 14.29% 4 seats = 57.1%
A reduced ALP vote won't leave enough to carry over to get a Green across the line.
History shows it is pretty much 40/60 and that won't change. People talk a lot but come election time you find that the final result TPP wil be around 53/47