Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[Hawkk]

Round 10, 2014

Pretty happy with our position (which has only fallen away slightly) despite losing games away to Sydney and Port Adelaide.

Should move shapely back to the top right with a game against GWS this week

 

[Final Siren]

Final Siren, at the end of which home and away season was the gap between the best and worst teams (on your chart) the smallest?

Since 1980...

1998 and 1999 are really close years. The smallest gap between best and worst is Round 16, 1999, with the Western Bulldogs the best and Melbourne the worst. There's just a huge pack of teams around the middle.

Things really blow out in 2011 with the entry of Gold Coast; 1996 (Fitzroy) is the only comparable season.

Although the Suns managed to avoid being involved in the biggest gap between best and worst that year (and since 1980), which occurred after Round 21, 2011. In Round 20, the Pies beat the Power 21-159, and Port followed it up the next week with a 197-32 loss to Hawthorn.

 

[hazard]

2007 shows just how unlucky Port were to be the poor saps who had to face Geelong in the granny. They were so far away from everyone in the competition, they would have slaughtered anyone on the day.

 

[Andre]

Port slowly improving again after the squiggle was less than impressed with only winning by 35 against GWS (damn being the unlucky side to cop them in frigid Canberra instead of a sunny Sydney or Melbourne day ). Squiggle must really think absolutely nothing of GWS since we slid about ten times the (combined offense/defense) for the win, then we did for the loss against North! Melbourne is much improved so I doubt we'll flog them away this round, but hopefully it's a nice sunny day in two weeks against the Saints to shift up and right.

The squiggle runs the 2013 season as part of where clubs are. Final Siren , now we're nearing the half-way part of the season I tend to take that as the point of no longer worrying about last years form for evaluating teams. Is there a squiggle for only 2014 games? So you can see how teams are going this year, based on how good / bad their opposition is this year only (E.g. games against Brisbane would rate lower than taking 2013 into account, where as against GC would rate higher). So basically every team would start at 50/50 offense / defense and go from there on 2014 results.

 

[Final Siren]

Is there a squiggle for only 2014 games? So you can see how teams are going this year, based on how good / bad their opposition is this year only (E.g. games against Brisbane would rate lower than taking 2013 into account, where as against GC would rate higher). So basically every team would start at 50/50 offense / defense and go from there on 2014 results.

What a great idea! It looks like this:

2014 Squiggle Where Every Team Starts at 50/50

 

[Andre]

Final Siren you deliver once again! In a board polluted with dick measuring contests this thread delivers the results once more. The squiggle largely matches what I'd expect, Hawks a clear favourite on 2014 form, Port second, Geelong, Fremantle and Sydney rounding out the (current) real chances. The Eagles a surprise, I thought they'd have slid further down and left.

Are you able to update this each round as well? Thanks again

 

[Mcveigh]

wow, really shows how important our forward line is when all are playing together!

 

[cryptor]

What a great idea! It looks like this:

2014 Squiggle Where Every Team Starts at 50/50

Would I be correct in saying that better early season performances against the better teams wouldn't carry as much weighting as opposed to the regular model you post here? ie. Essendon getting within 4 points of Hawthorn earlier this season wouldn't be worth as much as in the regular model as Hawthorn still hadn't moved out to their "true" position yet (something their 2013 data helped offset).

Similarly poor performances against bad teams also wouldn't hurt as much early on in the season as opposed to the regular model.

That said, this still looks pretty much what you'd expect it to based on the season so far so if what I've said is accurate there's obviously a lot to be said about this systems way of self correcting.

 

[strobe00]

ROUND 10 TIPS

Geelong 89 - 68 North Melbourne

Greater Western Sydney 79 - 112 Richmond

Collingwood 88 - 64 West Coast

Port Adelaide 90 - 102 Hawthorn

Gold Coast 109 - 82 Western Bulldogs

Carlton 88 - 93 Adelaide

Do you think the Hawks will still win this one? Port are very short priced favourites to win this one, $1.42 on sportsbet.

What are the chances of getting a set of squiggle predictions for round 11?

 

[cat in sydney]

I'd say the squiggle would be predicting the Hawks to score around 200 points against GWS this week, yes? With how contrasting the two strengths are of each team, Hawks will have to win massively to make the squiggle move anything other than down and to the left.

 

[Final Siren]

What are the chances of getting a set of squiggle predictions for round 11?

They're up now.

And yep, par for the Hawks is a 20-goal win!

Sydney 84 - 75 Geelong

St Kilda 60 - 100 Collingwood

Melbourne 62 - 104 Port Adelaide

Brisbane Lions 87 - 94 Carlton

Essendon 69 - 81 Richmond

Adelaide 97 - 77 Gold Coast

Western Bulldogs 69 - 100 Fremantle

Hawthorn 177 - 54 Greater Western Sydney

West Coast 80 - 83 North Melbourne

 

[Hawkk]

The football gods it would appear are conspiring against the squiggle...

 

[Final Siren]

Would I be correct in saying that better early season performances against the better teams wouldn't carry as much weighting as opposed to the regular model you post here? ie. Essendon getting within 4 points of Hawthorn earlier this season wouldn't be worth as much as in the regular model as Hawthorn still hadn't moved out to their "true" position yet (something their 2013 data helped offset).

Similarly poor performances against bad teams also wouldn't hurt as much early on in the season as opposed to the regular model.

That said, this still looks pretty much what you'd expect it to based on the season so far so if what I've said is accurate there's obviously a lot to be said about this systems way of self correcting.

All true. West Coast are probably in the weirdest position on that chart, largely thanks to thrashing Melbourne in Round 2.

Although the Eagles are hard to depict accurately at all this year, because they've been a bit of a flat-track bully, beating up on weak teams and crashing to good ones.

 

[Seppo]

All true. West Coast are probably in the weirdest position on that chart, largely thanks to thrashing Melbourne in Round 2.

Although the Eagles are hard to depict accurately at all this year, because they've been a bit of a flat-track bully, beating up on weak teams and crashing to good ones.

The sguiggle does not lie!!! It speaks the truth...

 

[Final Siren]

Are you able to update this each round as well? Thanks again

Steady on, I'm not made of squiggles.

 

[Andre]

Steady on, I'm not made of squiggles.

Gee, I though you were made of squiggles and spice and all things nice.

 

[hazard]

Steady on, I'm not made of squiggles.

Welllll is there a way we can edit the interactive squiggle to make it do it for us?

 

[Eastern Rangers]

Small losing margins to good sides would have something to do with West Coasts position on that chart.

 

[Eastern Rangers]

The sguiggle does not lie!!! It speaks the truth...

True. Fremantle don't have the scoring power to challenge.

 

[Seppo]

True. Fremantle don't have the scoring power to challenge.

Shouldn't matter too much yet, as long as we get wins. We made the GF last year around the same position on the squiggle chart.

We haven't played any of the bottom 6 sides yet.

 

[d33my]

Steady on, I'm not made of squiggles.

 

[The Swans Blog]

Depressing weekend of squiggles, hawthorn will destroy gws and be so far ahead of everyone else when they really aren't

 

[SJ]

Depressing weekend of squiggles, hawthorn will destroy gws and be so far ahead of everyone else when they really aren't

Actually the Hawks will probably retreat.

 

[Catfish Alley]

First world problem - depressed by squiggle

 

[cryptor]

Depressing weekend of squiggles, hawthorn will destroy gws and be so far ahead of everyone else when they really aren't

You dare question the squiggles?!