The race for the top 4

[Righteo]

I honestly think we will miss top 4.

Can't see us beating Adelaide, Sydney, Freo or Geelong with our current form & injuries.

If we had the favourable draw of teams like North, Geelong or Sydney I think we would finish top 4.

I for one would be stoked to see you guys miss the 4, Hawthorn have a big mental edge over us which is the biggest hurdle IMHO between us and our first flag and it'd be nice not to have to face that hurdle in the finals. Freo vs Hawthorn in a few weeks will be massive for us, if we can't beat what should still be an injury depleted Hawks at home with a top 4 or potentially top 2 spot on the line it would feel like we might never beat you.

Back us in to the hilt against any of Gee/Port/Syd/Coll/North in September but Hawthorn still worries me more than I'd like to admit.

 

[Indie_]

Mod's please close this thread.

The guru, Chunky has declared everyone else to be pretenders and Sydney are the best by virtue of their draw and being, well Sydney.

Part of being Sydney is being the best team in the competition.

 

[The Swans Blog]

Mod's please close this thread.

The guru, Chunky has declared everyone else to be pretenders and Sydney are the best by virtue of their draw and being, well Sydney.

Not sure where I said Sydney is the best, but yeah the rest may as well be pretenders Just a game clear on top...

 

[MilhouseVsEvil]

6 out of 7 games you have played against the top 8 sides so far have been at home. You have only played Gold Coast away and don't double up against Geelong or Freo.

You may be the best side but don't pretend you haven't had a favourable draw.

We have played teams from last season's top eight, 11 times, the same as Hawthorn. Go have a look at how many times Freo and Port get to face last year;s lower teams compared to us. Please cry more about 6 day breaks...

 

[Angus Young]

peeps are just jealous...sydney are the best atm I just want the Hawks to pull their fingers out

 

[Angus Young]

I for one would be stoked to see you guys miss the 4, Hawthorn have a big mental edge over us which is the biggest hurdle IMHO between us and our first flag and it'd be nice not to have to face that hurdle in the finals. Freo vs Hawthorn in a few weeks will be massive for us, if we can't beat what should still be an injury depleted Hawks at home with a top 4 or potentially top 2 spot on the line it would feel like we might never beat you.

Back us in to the hilt against any of Gee/Port/Syd/Coll/North in September but Hawthorn still worries me more than I'd like to admit.

Don't stress brother i preety sure we arent making it ;(

 

[hk89]

Sydney: AHAHHAAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAH
Hawthorn: HAHAAAHAAHHAHHA AHHHAHA

Apart from sounding like an insane clown, thanks for highlighting the fact that Hawthorn don't have a true home ground advantage for most of its home games compared to Sydney. We play a bunch of games in a row in the same city because we play a bunch of other local sides in the same city. Our home games are often played on either the home ground of the away team, the same city as the away team, or the same state as the away team. Obviously that isn't true of Tassie games, but we have to actually travel ourselves to them!

Sydney on the other hand have a great home town advantage where there is only one other team in their state, so most comers are actually playing away, and they reap the well acknowledged benefits of a single-team focused crowd on those games.

So in short. F' off.

Exactly.

 

[The Swans Blog]

Sydney on the other hand have a great home town advantage where there is only one other team in their state, so most comers are actually playing away, and they reap the well acknowledged benefits of a single-team focused crowd on those games.

Eh? WA, QLD, SA & NSW have 2 teams each... So by that logic, 7 other teams also have a great home town advantage. Not to mention WA has a great advantage against VIC, but VIC against every other interstate team.

The point I was making was that Sydney and most other interstate teams travel every 2nd week, at least twice a month. Whereas a lot of Vic teams travel once a month if they're lucky, and in the case of Hawthorn, played 7 of their first 10 games in Melbourne. Most other interstate teams play between 4 to 6 home games in their first 10 games and play H/A every other round.
Collingwood is just as bad, if not worse, because they travel interstate 4-5 times a year.

 

[hk89]

Eh? WA, QLD, SA & NSW have 2 teams each... So by that logic, 7 other teams also have a great home town advantage.

That is correct, but your laughing clown analysis was talking only about Sydney and Hawthorn, so I didn't mention the others.

The point I was making was that Sydney and most other interstate teams travel every 2nd week, at least twice a month.

Yes, and the other point you were accidentally making was that Sydney get a much greater home ground advantage in return for their travel compared to the Victorian teams which play a large number of their home games on grounds which are mostly neutral venues (but who then have the upside of travelling less). Basically you can have a strong home ground advantage or you can travel less, you don't get to pick both. Vic sides travel less due to the large number of Vic teams still in the competition, but they have less of a home ground advantage in return.

 

[Bobby_]

Back us in to the hilt against any of Gee/Port/Syd/Coll/North in September but Hawthorn still worries me more than I'd like to admit.

You won't beat us in round 20. Can see Cats winning that one by 4-6 goals.
We will probably be the only team you lose too from here on in so top 2 looks rock solid for Fremantle.

 

[bigfarter]

You won't beat us in round 20. Can see Cats winning that one by 4-6 goals.
We will probably be the only team you lose too from here on in so top 2 looks rock solid for Fremantle.

Jesus, Bobby...

 

[The Swans Blog]

That is correct, but your laughing clown analysis was talking only about Sydney and Hawthorn, so I didn't mention the others.



Yes, and the other point you were accidentally making was that Sydney get a much greater home ground advantage in return for their travel compared to the Victorian teams which play a large number of their home games on grounds which are mostly neutral venues (but who then have the upside of travelling less). Basically you can have a strong home ground advantage or you can travel less, you don't get to pick both. Vic sides travel less due to the large number of Vic teams still in the competition, but they have less of a home ground advantage in return.

Noice, I'll agree with that.

 

[Clems Knee]

Yes, and the other point you were accidentally making was that Sydney get a much greater home ground advantage in return for their travel compared to the Victorian teams which play a large number of their home games on grounds which are mostly neutral venues (but who then have the upside of travelling less). Basically you can have a strong home ground advantage or you can travel less, you don't get to pick both. Vic sides travel less due to the large number of Vic teams still in the competition, but they have less of a home ground advantage in return.

Unless you are Geelong.

 

[Syd]

...Obviously that isn't true of Tassie games, but we have to actually travel ourselves to them!...

You can't sell your games interstate and then complain about having to travel to them

...you can have a strong home ground advantage or you can travel less, you don't get to pick both...

Insert taco ad girl saying "why can't we have both?"

These VIC clubs should be thanking us "interstaters" as using this logic they had no home ground advantages at all when it was the VFL as everyone was in Melbourne!!

 

[hk89]

You can't sell your games interstate and then complain about having to travel to them

That is like saying you can't accept extra money from the AFL to poach other team's players and then complain about other fans continually pointing out your unfair advantage. It is also a bit like saying you can't move your team to Sydney and then complain about having to travel to Melbourne to play. Of course you can point out you have to travel, despite having chosen to relocate to Sydney.

Yes its own fault we have to travel to Tassie, but it doesn't alter the fact that it changes the dynamics (just as Swans being in Sydney instead of South Melbourne changes the dynamics). Basically we end up with a true home ground advantage in Tassie, but trade off the fact that we have to travel there. According to swans fans travel is a massive disadvantage, and home ground advantage, not such a big deal.

These VIC clubs should be thanking us "interstaters" as using this logic they had no home ground advantages at all when it was the VFL as everyone was in Melbourne!!

Well back in the day the VFL clubs had more of a home ground advantage because many played at suburban grounds where they trained, and were very familiar with the nuances of the ground they played on compared to the opposition. What they never really had was a massive home crowd advantage (with perhaps Geelong games being the exception).

Interstate (or intertown in Geelong's case) travel does produce home CROWD advantages, which is my point, non-Vic clubs all have travel disadvantages, but get more true home crowd advantages. Geelong have had their advantage diluted by having to play some big home games at the MCG, and only getting the Vic teams they can usually easily beat in Geelong. Hawthorn is similar with Tassie, we'd love to take Geelong/Pies/Bombers down to Tassie I suppose, but like Hawthorn playing down in Geelong, that is unlikely to happen at the moment.

I'd take a home crowd over a home ground advantage every time. 95% of the crowd baying for holding the ball seems to be a sound umpires often find hard to ignore (and this cuts both ways, home crowd umpiring is a fact, and it definitely happens in Melbourne too).

 

[doppleganger]

When VFL clubs actually had home grounds - VicPark, Windy Hill etc - there were distinct home ground advantages.

There are now only two grounds in Melbourne and nine teams that share the grounds (10 if you include Geelong).

How the feck do people seriously think Coll v Haw at the G is some game where Coll get a home ground advantage?

 

[estibador]

Opposition VFL clubs still got one game a year to learn the nuances of the ground - and apparently playing once or twice a year is supposed to be enough so that non-Vic clubs aren't disadvantaged by the GF being played at a Vic club's home ground.

 

[hutchy31]

I know tonight's game is a difficult one for Hawthorn, but I can't believe they're only marginal favourites. My only concern would be the relatively depleted hawks defence vs adelaide's KPFs, but I'll still be punting big on hawks beating the line (about -6.5 or thereabouts).

Win this game and there's a decent argument they're a lock for top 4. They'll beat us and melbourne, then given their percentage they prob only need a couple more from sydney/geelong/freo/collingwood. I'd back them in for that I think.

Winning the flag against a fully-functioning sydney and/or freo, particularly if the hawks have to play QF/PF interstate, is another matter...

 

[WWSD]

I know tonight's game is a difficult one for Hawthorn, but I can't believe they're only marginal favourites. My only concern would be the relatively depleted hawks defence vs adelaide's KPFs, but I'll still be punting big on hawks beating the line (about -6.5 or thereabouts).

Win this game and there's a decent argument they're a lock for top 4. They'll beat us and melbourne, then given their percentage they prob only need a couple more from sydney/geelong/freo/collingwood. I'd back them in for that I think.

Winning the flag against a fully-functioning sydney and/or freo, particularly if the hawks have to play QF/PF interstate, is another matter...

Gibson will be back for the Sydney game after the Bye, as will Bradley Hill and Billy Hartung. Having Hill and Hartung in the side gives us pace in the midfield. The odds for us to beat Adelaide and Sydney are relatively slim. When Gibson was playing our defense was ranked number one in the competition for points conceded. Since his injury our back line has looked completely lost and all over the place. His inclusion will be a massive boost for our defense against the Swans in Round 18.

 

[db swannie]

Gibson will be back for the Sydney game after the Bye, as will Bradley Hill and Billy Hartung. Having Hill and Hartung in the side gives us pace in the midfield. The odds for us to beat Adelaide and Sydney are relatively slim. When Gibson was playing our defense was ranked number one in the competition for points conceded. Since his injury our back line has looked completely lost and all over the place. His inclusion will be a massive boost for our defense against the Swans in Round 18.

You'll need him as the Box Hill Strangler will still be out.

 

[hk89]

You'll need him as the Box Hill Strangler will still be out.

A pity though. Seeing Lake put your $10 million investment to sleep would have been worth the admission price!

 

[The Swans Blog]

When VFL clubs actually had home grounds - VicPark, Windy Hill etc - there were distinct home ground advantages.

There are now only two grounds in Melbourne and nine teams that share the grounds (10 if you include Geelong).

How the feck do people seriously think Coll v Haw at the G is some game where Coll get a home ground advantage?

It's the crowd factor. Collingwood draw the largest crowds each week, then there's home games for the SA & WA clubs that draw the next biggest. It's a lot more intimidating for other clubs to play in front of 60k+ crowds if they're playing in front of 25k @ Etihad.

 

[The Swans Blog]

Gibson will be back for the Sydney game after the Bye, as will Bradley Hill and Billy Hartung. Having Hill and Hartung in the side gives us pace in the midfield. The odds for us to beat Adelaide and Sydney are relatively slim. When Gibson was playing our defense was ranked number one in the competition for points conceded. Since his injury our back line has looked completely lost and all over the place. His inclusion will be a massive boost for our defense against the Swans in Round 18.

The odds will change this weekend depending no results. The Swans/Hawks game is almost 50% either way. I think if Hawks win it's probably 52%-48% in favour of the Hawks, but if they lose, I'd say it's probably 60%-40% in favour of the Swans, based on form, players, team performance statistics etc. Hawks will have some big outs by the time they play the Swans, whereas we'll be looking almost fully fit again.

 

[db swannie]

A pity though. Seeing Lake put your $10 million investment to sleep would have been worth the admission price!

He couldn't Petrie to sleep, so I don't like his chances against Buddy.

 

[Bobby_]

I know tonight's game is a difficult one for Hawthorn, but I can't believe they're only marginal favourites. My only concern would be the relatively depleted hawks defence vs adelaide's KPFs, but I'll still be punting big on hawks beating the line (about -6.5 or thereabouts).

Cheney, Simpkin, Langford, Suckling, Ceglar, Stratton, Spangher, Shoenmakers. . . when they are all in the team together you know you got a great chance.
Even McEvoy is a liability due to his poor tap work and Jacobs should win that duel all night long.

If Adelaide's bigs in Podsiadly (likes playing Hawthorn), Walker, Jenkins/Lynch start contributing early in the match, could go right down to the wire.
You'd take Adelaide's midfield over Hawthorn's as well.