Rumour The Thread formerly known as the rumour file, now with zero rumours

[Sublime]

I've thought about this at times & reckon it'd be really interesting to see statistics for how draft picks work out in these ranges.

Just get the feeling you wouldn't actually be much worse off at all with the 2 later picks, given you get 2 shots at it. Especially if it's such an even draft as is being suggested.

It's an interesting one. You get 1 shot at a probable A level player or you get 2 shots at fairly long shot A level players. Both have their positives and negatives and wouldn't blame anyone for preferring either option.

 

[TGR]

I know that as well, hence the comment....................bloody Menzel

I only saw the finals of the TAC and that's far from enough to make any real assessment but I did the look of some of the kids getting around who had genuine AFL traits.
I did like the look of Ahern, Maynard, McDonald, Lonie and De Goey but not so much Vicker-Willis and Cordy.
Didn't see the Jets though but a few of the boys there look pretty good also.

Ahern on what I have seen, I would rate top 10 or near enough already.

McDonald I have known personally since he was 10 and would be ecstatic on that level to see him picked up.

 

[Red Bull]

Yep, knocked back a long-ish deal with Gold Coast because he wanted to prove he could make it at Hawthorn. Aint going anywhere.

Bingo !!

 

[Beer n Skittles]

It's an interesting one. You get 1 shot at a probable A level player or you get 2 shots at fairly long shot A level players. Both have their positives and negatives and wouldn't blame anyone for preferring either option.

Just flicking through the 07-09 drafts, there's about a dozen guns in the 1st round, half dozen in the 2nd, and a couple in 3rd+.

Really warming to 7 for Jaksch 19 & 21, would prefer not to have to throw in pick 28 though.

 

[TGR]

Just flicking through the 07-09 drafts, there's about a dozen guns in the 1st round, half dozen in the 2nd, and a couple in 3rd+.

Really warming to 7 for Jaksch 19 & 21, would prefer not to have to throw in pick 28 though.

Pick 28 would have to be off the table in that scenario, surely. No deal if that not the case.

 

[etsal1]

Pick 28 would have to be off the table in that scenario, surely. No deal if that not the case.

As I said IF GWS have already added in pick 21 on top of 19 in one day, the chances of keeping 28 are pretty good IMO.

 

[Blue since 72]

Jaksch can't even refuse given the Saints can nab him in PSD. It's all over if Saints say yes.

Yes, think we're done on Jaksch.

While in isolation he's not worth seven I'm quite interested in who we're going to use it on in the draft.

 

[TheRedPill]

I tend to think 7 for Jaksch, 19 & 21 is actually quite advantageous for our list composition. We have some quality players sprinkled throughout, but generally there's a large drop off from our A/B/even C graders and then we have a lot of list cloggers - depth is not our strong point. Mick has made that clear, and it's been widely acknowledged that our recruiting & development struggles of the previous regime have left us in a bind.

So whilst a gun at 7 is never something to sneeze at, the potential to bring in 3 A/B graders over 1 A+ grader is highly attractive. And if our R&D truly is better than previous years (I'm cautiously optimistic), and you look at the success of the good clubs at getting quality players outside of the top few picks, we should be able to pluck some genuine quality at picks 19, 21, 23 etc. Pretty exciting if you ask me. What do people reckon?

 

[No1Suspect]

Ahern on what I have seen, I would rate top 10 or near enough already.

McDonald I have known personally since he was 10 and would be ecstatic on that level to see him picked up.

Thoughts on Laverde TGR if you havent given it already.

 

[F_therest]

I REALLY don't want to be going #7 and #28 for Jaksch, #19 and #21. Without #28 I MIGHT consider it (but the GWS wouldn't) so I would at least want #42 back from the GWS too. They most likely won't use it and we need more picks to fill our list esp after getting nothing for Waite.


As for Jaksch I really am not sold on him. Lets face it he was #12 in a year when O'meara and couch was taken out of the draft and Viney went f/s in 2nd rd pushing him out to #15 at best. I don't want to structure our whole draft after a speculative KPF player who would be, at best, a mid-late 1st rd selection from his (compromised) draft when we have an early 1st rd selection this year

I keep seeing people say Jaksch was in a compromised draft so he is more like pick 15...but then ignore the fact that our pick 7 is in a draft where Moore and Heeney were taken out...

Also, im pretty sure the word is that the top end talent doesnt run as deep in this draft than in 2012

 

[No1Suspect]

I tend to think 7 for Jaksch, 19 & 21 is actually quite advantageous for our list composition. We have some quality players sprinkled throughout, but generally there's a large drop off from our A/B/even C graders and then we have a lot of list cloggers - depth is not our strong point. Mick has made that clear, and it's been widely acknowledged that our recruiting & development struggles of the previous regime have left us in a bind.

So whilst a gun at 7 is never something to sneeze at, the potential to bring in 3 A/B graders over 1 A+ grader is highly attractive. And if our R&D truly is better than previous years (I'm cautiously optimistic), and you look at the success of the good clubs at getting quality players outside of the top few picks, we should be able to pluck some genuine quality at picks 19, 21, 23 etc. Pretty exciting if you ask me. What do people reckon?

Itd be good if 19 was 14-15 then it would be a little easier to swallow.... jaksch 14 & 21 for 7 n 28

 

[F_therest]

'Carlton unlikely to land Jaksch'....'Carlton and GWS miles apart on Jaksch'....'Carlton will get Jaksch in 24 hours'...which is true?

Or did a deal that both parties like just come up this morning?

 

[Sublime]

 

[jimsta10]

The anticipation is killing. Productivity at work is non existent, I'm blaming BF for bring my work in disrepute.

 

[checkpoints]

I'm in the same boat. Can barely stay focused. My essay deadline is coming up and I've got exams next week.

For the love of Aphrodite just get these trades done!

 

[JamisonRun40]

Patience dear folks, all good things will come to those who wait.

 

[Deep Blue]

The anticipation is killing. Productivity at work is non existent, I'm blaming BF for bring my work in disrepute.

Trade period is a bummer - a frustrating tease!

 

[BluStreak]

yep the full Emotional Rollercoaster ride.

 

[Canyouhearthedrums]

I'd like to think that Ahmed wouldn't be eliberately taking the piss out of his own club, so I think KJ is on his way.

 

[TGR]

Thoughts on Laverde TGR if you havent given it already.

I like him. Haven't seen the volume other more learned gents around here have. But he's got some special qualities. Pace to burn, agility and when he puts on some size, I think he'll be quite powerful too. His kicking looks quite sound to me and his hands look good, but I'm not 100% sold on his decision making, but as I said I've only seen him a few times.

 

[gbatman]

The ball is firmly in KJ's court, he wants to come back to Melbourne and Melbourne clubs have the first two picks in the Pre-season Draft I believe. He can walk for nothing and go to the PSD and that will mean he ends up in Melbourne which seems priority number one. You sort of hope he doesn't care too much about ending up at St Kilda so he will be willing to go to the PSD but you hope that he cares enough about coming to Carlton so that he refuses to be traded to St Kilda. It could force GWS to take whatever we offer them and you would think, providing that it's reasonable (2nd round pick), that they would take it rather than lose him for nothing.

Wouldn't budge on pick one. Carlton have plenty of good ok players, the sort you find around the pick 25-30 range. We need guns, front stage players, key players who are good enough to make the AA side, it'll be pick 7 that can get us one of those.

 

[Keyza]

The ball is firmly in KJ's court, he wants to come back to Melbourne and Melbourne clubs have the first two picks in the Pre-season Draft I believe. He can walk for nothing and go to the PSD and that will mean he ends up in Melbourne which seems priority number one. You sort of hope he doesn't care too much about ending up at St Kilda so he will be willing to go to the PSD but you hope that he cares enough about coming to Carlton so that he refuses to be traded to St Kilda. It could force GWS to take whatever we offer them and you would think, providing that it's reasonable (2nd round pick), that they would take it rather than lose him for nothing.

Wouldn't budge on pick one. Carlton have plenty of good ok players, the sort you find around the pick 25-30 range. We need guns, front stage players, key players who are good enough to make the AA side, it'll be pick 7 that can get us one of those.

I think this will be the case too. If Jaksch tells GWS he is happy to go to the Saints then there is nothing stopping St Kilda telling GWS to take a 3rd round pick or they will take him in the PSD. We will see how it plays out. If we can get a 2nd round upgrade for Garlett and use this for Jaksch then it looks better for GWS and we all win.

 

[The Facepainter]

I'd like to think that Ahmed wouldn't be eliberately taking the piss out of his own club, so I think KJ is on his way.

I wonder if Ahmed would be impressed as I work for him running a facility and have had trade radio online in my office today

 

[Sheephead]

I think this will be the case too. If Jaksch tells GWS he is happy to go to the Saints then there is nothing stopping St Kilda telling GWS to take a 3rd round pick or they will take him in the PSD. We will see how it plays out. If we can get a 2nd round upgrade for Garlett and use this for Jaksch then it looks better for GWS and we all win.

Would be good if KJ said he was happy to go to Saints or Us. Saints wont pony up anything before a 3rd and we can trump that with 28.

 

[Blues_1864]

I've thought about this at times & reckon it'd be really interesting to see statistics for how draft picks work out in these ranges.

Just get the feeling you wouldn't actually be much worse off at all with the 2 later picks, given you get 2 shots at it. Especially if it's such an even draft as is being suggested.

Quality post in the Trade Targets thread last night, looking at #7 over the last 10 years, vs #19 and #21 over the last 10 years, not sure of the permalinking thing so I've reproduced the whole thing below.

The results scare the bejeezus out of me, to be honest - I had been open to the idea of #19 and #21 being two bites at the cherry, but those lists suggests that not only do you dramatically increase the possibility of striking out altogether, even the 'good' players are nowhere near as good. I say keep #7 and make damn sure of one very good player.

Pick 7
2004- Jordan Lewis
05- Paddy Ryder
06- Joel Selwood
07- Rhys Palmer
08- Daniel Rich
09- Brad Sheppard
10- Josh Caddy... Heppell went at 8
11- Nick Haynes, GWS compromised draft
12- Ollie Wines
13- James Aish

Caddy the only real flop, and Haynes still yet to prove his worth but the rest are either very good or top shelf A grade quality... Anyone seriously considering Jaksch for pick 7, even if it includes a 2nd round upgrade are kidding themselves, we have a real opportunity to draft in a genuine gun.

Pick 19 & 21
2004 - Ryan Wilits, Tom Murphy
2005 - Courtney Dempsey, Danny Stanley
2006 - Shaun Grigg, Gavin Urqhart
2007- Callan Ward, Adam Maaric
2008 - James Strauss, Hayden Ballantyne
2009 - Ben Griffiths, Ryan Bastinac
2010 - Isaac Smith, Jed Lamb
2011- Elliot Kavanagh, Tom Mitchell f/s... Bootsma taken at 22
2012- Ben Kennedy, Nathan Hrovat
2013- Blake Acres, Jarman Impey

Half are these blokes now play local footy, Jaksch might have ability but not enough to want me to risk picking up the next Joel Selwood or Ollie Wines.