Mega Thread Trade and List Management discussion

[Pannalstaroz]

Good point, but it applies to Carlisle too. I'm all for tabling an offer to keep the option, but that doesn't necessarily mean we have to follow through at the end of the season, just like how he could change his mind in October should Richmond jump in with an 800k offer.

Our offer to Carlisle is nothing like $800 and you have to know your price. If others wish to up the ante to secure him, so be it. That's their prerogative. I think JMac and the team have done a good job getting in players who offer value and also managing spend. How they handle the next 5 years will be fascinating but there's no evidence to suggest we won't be able to keep all the players we have drafted and traded for.

 

[SeaWind]

Please cite relevant examples

Examples of what?

My point is there aren't any examples. The onus is on you to provide them. Comprehension troubles?

 

[Pannalstaroz]

Um, what? are you serious?

How do you objectively measure the perceptions of every single AFL Club? Do you have close links to the recruiting staff of every club in the competition? If so, do you know exactly what they're thinking?


Midfield is the most important area on the ground. If we took Shiel away from GWS, we'd have the best midfield in the competition for the next 10 years, and we'd be driving a stake right through the hearts of our strongest competition.

I'm not even convinced we have 750k yet, but if we do and insist on making a big signing, give me Shiel or Treloar over Carlisle every day of the week, twice on sundays.

This is the stupid comment. You don't need to go completely over the top in your argument to make a point.

 

[Pannalstaroz]

That's a shame.bi thought it was to be completed by then. Puts Carlisle in a tough spot if he wants out

On Carlisle. Ess CEO on SEN said Wada matter will go on to Oct/Nov. I don't think we can afford to give up a 1st rd pick with a 2yr suspension hanging over him. Especially with Crameri on our list.

I'm thinking we get Carlisle as a delisted free agent, which is quite possible with Ess' OHS contractual breaches. If not Hunter and our 2nd rd would be absolute maximum and still overpaying. We need to start making this wada shit work for us. heck Ess.

 

[doggies ftw]

Don't like this Hunter talk at all, hope he figures it out and stays at the club and finds form. For everyone willing to write him off as a shit player, he has outperformed every single kid on our list at VFL level. He is extremely ****ing talented, yes he may not have the right attitude to make the most of it but I'd much rather keep him because there's more chance of him turning it around than the late second rounder or whatever we can get for him, coming good.

 

[Pannalstaroz]

We've all got our skeletons - S Koops, Jade Rawlins and L Veale say hi

Jade kicked 6 in his first . Haha but you're right, Natahn Djekurra says yo too

 

[BRWB]

Please cite relevant examples

I compliment you on your use of 'cite' even if it doesn't complement the overall tone of this site.

Of course, people will have their own opinions and they're welcome to them, as long as there is a bit of give and take.

 

[Pannalstaroz]

I can't tell whether you're a troll deliberately twisting my arguments in an effort to provoke, or your comprehension is that bad.

I'm not claiming anything any of my opinions to be facts, I'm simply making an argument, and using historical evidence to back it up. Rather than whinge about my posts, why don't you try to prove me wrong by highlighting an example that conflicts with my argument? What's your problem with having an actual debate?

Why are my posts are "claims pretending to be facts", whereas this post is a simple expression of opinion?



That's nice. I suppose you find nothing wrong with this, Mutt?

You did it again, give me some historical evidence that he's not worth 27-40.

 

[Pannalstaroz]

I compliment you on your use of 'cite' even if it doesn't complement the overall tone of this site.

Of course, people will have their own opinions and they're welcome to them, as long as there is a bit of give and take.

Agree. I'm trying to discuss it, but it's proving difficult.

 

[SeaWind]

You did it again, give me some historical evidence that he's not worth 27-40.

There are no examples, this reinforces the point I'm making. This is about the 5th time I've said this.

 

[Gmod23]

You mean like trying to claim you know exactly how the market perceives Hunter's worth? My questions were entirely valid, because it's impossible for anyone to know without that knowledge.

Quick question of a list manager (not ours), is that he is a classic second round trade. Could be a steal or a bust, has all the talent but the application hasn't shown yet. Fix application and work rate, can be an A grader. Don't fix, becomes a limited offensive unaccountable C grade player.

 

[Pannalstaroz]

There are no examples, this reinforces the point I'm making. This is about the 5th time I've said this.

So you're now not using historical evidence? I'm a little confused.

What was your opinion of Jono O'Rourke for pick 19?

 

[SeaWind]

Quick question of a list manager (not ours), is that he is a classic second round trade. Could be a steal or a bust, has all the talent but the application hasn't shown yet. Fix application and work rate, can be an A grader. Don't fix, becomes a limited offensive unaccountable C grade player.

If that's what said list manager thinks, that's perfectly fine. I'm just yet to be persuaded personally.

 

[AjsGuns]

Don't want to lose Hunter, his only 20 and the kid has a December birthday as well (6 months younger than Macrae/Stringer/Hrovrat).
In 2013 he was easily amongst the top 15 or so from the 2012 draft, he was killing it. Yeah we only paid #49 for him but I can't see us drafting anyone better with a #20-30 pick this year (draft has amazing top end talent but isn't that deep). We have also put in developmental years etc, Talk of getting #40+ for him is silly, would have to be a early/mid second rounder (#20-#30) and even then I'd prefer to keep him. Unpopular opinion but I reckon long term he will be better than Hrovrat and possibly Honey.

 

[Gmod23]

If that's what said list manager thinks, that's perfectly fine. I'm just yet to be persuaded personally.

I think that he values skill at the expense of work rate (which I probably over value)....

 

[SeaWind]

So you're now not using historical evidence? I'm a little confused.

What was your opinion of Jono O'Rourke for pick 19?

I am. I'm saying that in the last 10 years, there has never been a trade involving a player with similar credentials and question marks to Hunter that's yielded a first or second round pick.

Jonothan O'Rourke went at Pick 2, Hunter went in the 40s. There's a huge difference there.

 

[nickacacia]

Sorry for the reminder guys but Toyd (unproven) cost us our captain and first rounder. Those suggesting we'll bag Carlisle (proven top quality KPP) for Hunter (unproven) and our first rounder are dreaming. Even if they swap 2nd round picks it'd still be unders from us because we know even early draft picks are still unproven at AFL level (Christian Howard rabble rabble). Don't forget who we're dealing with in Dodoorknob. And.. before you say it, yes I know we paid overs for Tom Boyd but if you think Essendon won't use that trade as an example to increase JC's worth well, again you're dreaming. Dons will want our first rounder and one of our young guns at the least. Lachie will become a very good player but probably not in time for this trade. If he is included then expect to lose another solid young gun. As awesome as having Carlisle would be I don't think we need him as much as the players he'd cost us

 

[SeaWind]

Don't want to lose Hunter, his only 20 and the kid has a December birthday as well (6 months younger than Macrae/Stringer/Hrovrat).
In 2013 he was easily amongst the top 15 or so from the 2012 draft, he was killing it. Yeah we only paid #49 for him but I can't see us drafting anyone better with a #20-30 pick this year (draft has amazing top end talent but isn't that deep). We have also put in developmental years etc,

Agree with this.

Talk of getting #40+ for him is silly, would have to be a early/mid second rounder (#20-#30) and even then I'd prefer to keep him. Unpopular opinion but I reckon long term he will be better than Hrovrat and possibly Honey.

Disagree with this.

It's easy for us to say he's worth picks 20-30, but the opposition clubs aren't necessarily going to share that opinion. They're going to see pick 49, that he's a 3rd year player, that he's yet to establish himself, that he has big question marks over his defensive work rate and decision making.

 

[Pannalstaroz]

I am. I'm saying that in the last 10 years, there has never been a trade involving a player with similar credentials and question marks to Hunter that's yielded a first or second round pick.

Jonothan O'Rourke went at Pick 2, Hunter went in the 40s. There's a huge difference there.

Ok, so perception does count? O'Rourke on output was very similar to Hunter. I agree that a high draft pick gets more opportunities than a lower pick, but if Hunter went on the market officially, I think you'd find there would be a lot of interest.

 

[SeaWind]

Sorry for the reminder guys but Toyd (unproven) cost us our captain and first rounder. Those suggesting we'll bag Carlisle (proven top quality KPP) for Hunter (unproven) and our first rounder are dreaming. Even if they swap 2nd round picks it'd still be unders from us because we know even early draft picks are still unproven at AFL level (Christian Howard rabble rabble). Don't forget who we're dealing with in Dodoorknob. And.. before you say it, yes I know we paid overs for Tom Boyd but if you think Essendon won't use that trade as an example to increase JC's worth well, again you're dreaming. Dons will want our first rounder and one of our young guns at the least. Lachie will become a very good player but probably not in time for this trade. If he is included then expect to lose another solid young gun. As awesome as having Carlisle would be I don't think we need him as much as the players he'd cost us

The circumstances are quite different to what you might think.

Tom Boyd was contracted, and was one of the most overhyped players in the competition, and our list management bought into the hype.

Carlisle is out of contract, and Essendon are in a bit of a crisis right now. They had to let Ryder go for unders last year, and the general assumption is that it might take something similar to prize Carlisle away from the Bombers.

 

[Pannalstaroz]

Sorry for the reminder guys but Toyd (unproven) cost us our captain and first rounder. Those suggesting we'll bag Carlisle (proven top quality KPP) for Hunter (unproven) and our first rounder are dreaming. Even if they swap 2nd round picks it'd still be unders from us because we know even early draft picks are still unproven at AFL level (Christian Howard rabble rabble). Don't forget who we're dealing with in Dodoorknob. And.. before you say it, yes I know we paid overs for Tom Boyd but if you think Essendon won't use that trade as an example to increase JC's worth well, again you're dreaming. Dons will want our first rounder and one of our young guns at the least. Lachie will become a very good player but probably not in time for this trade. If he is included then expect to lose another solid young gun. As awesome as having Carlisle would be I don't think we need him as much as the players he'd cost us

IMO Carlisle and Boyd are two very different beasts. Carlisle is 23, Boyd 19. Big, big difference there because you get 4 more years out of him. Ess may want a 1st rounder and a kid, but at the moment he's not worth anywhere near that. Clubs would offer a first rounder simply on the hope they can get him back to AA form as a backman.

 

[Mutt]

I can't tell whether you're a troll deliberately twisting my arguments in an effort to provoke, or your comprehension is that bad.

I'm not claiming anything any of my opinions to be facts, I'm simply making an argument, and using historical evidence to back it up. Rather than whinge about my posts, why don't you try to prove me wrong by highlighting an example that conflicts with my argument? What's your problem with having an actual debate?

Why are my posts are "claims pretending to be facts", whereas this post is a simple expression of opinion?



That's nice. I suppose you find nothing wrong with this, Mutt?

What historical evidence are you talking about here???? Do you mean your opinion that players like Hunter get traded for picks around 40+? That's so subjective and simply an assertion of your opinion masquerading as "historical evidence". You've provided no "evidence" whatsoever.

 

[BRWB]

Sorry for the reminder guys but Toyd (unproven) cost us our captain and first rounder. Those suggesting we'll bag Carlisle (proven top quality KPP) for Hunter (unproven) and our first rounder are dreaming. Even if they swap 2nd round picks it'd still be unders from us because we know even early draft picks are still unproven at AFL level (Christian Howard rabble rabble). Don't forget who we're dealing with in Dodoorknob. And.. before you say it, yes I know we paid overs for Tom Boyd but if you think Essendon won't use that trade as an example to increase JC's worth well, again you're dreaming. Dons will want our first rounder and one of our young guns at the least. Lachie will become a very good player but probably not in time for this trade. If he is included then expect to lose another solid young gun. As awesome as having Carlisle would be I don't think we need him as much as the players he'd cost us

Disagree a better trade comparison is Ryder. Purely because of the threat of legal action by Ess players to get DFA status due to wada. Port's first two late picks got it done, our first and third or hunter should get it done. Not that I think we should though.

 

[Dogsman16]

Sorry for the reminder guys but Toyd (unproven) cost us our captain and first rounder. Those suggesting we'll bag Carlisle (proven top quality KPP) for Hunter (unproven) and our first rounder are dreaming. Even if they swap 2nd round picks it'd still be unders from us because we know even early draft picks are still unproven at AFL level (Christian Howard rabble rabble). Don't forget who we're dealing with in Dodoorknob. And.. before you say it, yes I know we paid overs for Tom Boyd but if you think Essendon won't use that trade as an example to increase JC's worth well, again you're dreaming. Dons will want our first rounder and one of our young guns at the least. Lachie will become a very good player but probably not in time for this trade. If he is included then expect to lose another solid young gun. As awesome as having Carlisle would be I don't think we need him as much as the players he'd cost us

Yes we are dealing with DoDo but still we won't be giving up that much for Carlisle. As...

• WADA will still be hanging over his head
• Out of Contract - So Essendon have little wriggle room
• Club is somewhat confident that he could nominate us
• Tom Boyd was a number 1 pick and rated one of the best number 1 picks to ever come through (I posted an article on the main board that rated him one of the best number 1 picks in the past decade (Most Dominant))

Essendon have destroyed his value by playing him as a forward, we have only seen ten really good games he has played in defence in 2013, but his value would have gone down having played forward for the past 1 and a half years.

At worst 1st round + steak knives (that being nowhere near a best 22 player) should get it done. We can use the Ryder deal as a template if they want to mention the Boyd deal. Plus if he has a ban/still facing a ban then I'd offer them a second or third rounder. No way we wast a first round pick for a player who could potentially miss two seasons.

 

[Pannalstaroz]

The circumstances are quite different to what you might think.

Tom Boyd was contracted, and was one of the most overhyped players in the competition, and our list management bought into the hype.

Carlisle is out of contract, and Essendon are in a bit of a crisis right now. They had to let Ryder go for unders last year, and the general assumption is that it might take something similar to prize Carlisle away from the Bombers.

A player who averages 169 champion data points in their under 18 year as a key forward, not a mid, and is a consensus number one pick in every recruiter's eyes, I'm not sure is "over"hyped. Highly regarded, sure, but over hyped makes him out as incorrectly judged, don't you agree?