Mega Thread Possible trades in 2015 for the Crows

[dogs105]

Really like us to have a full crack at Anderson now.

Do the pick swap with Sydney and use 14 on Anderson - leaves us with 9 and 13 in the draft.

We can then make a decision (if an opportunity develops) on whether we want to use pick 13 in a trade with Carlton for either Menzel or Yarran (and Kerridge included) OR use it in the draft.

If we got Gore, Hampton, Anderson, Menzel / Yarran and used pick 9 in the draft I'd be pretty happy.

Hawthorn want 20-28 for Anderson apparently.

 

[Danoz]

i'm not sure, i just recall reading they made an adjusted to prevent a loophole is the system, I might have just imagined it though.

That was relating to teams trading out their first rd following year pick when they had quality youngsters to bid for.
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-08-12/afl-closes-draft-bidding-system-loophole

 

[baldandbroke]

Hawthorn want 20-28 for Anderson apparently.

Yep - so maybe we get back a later pick this year we use for Hampton OR something next year.

 

[knobby]

Yes he is. But he's not the only gun in this draft

Lever is a gun and was rated top 3 in the country before missing a big chunk of footy and sliding to 14. Grundy is a gun and was rated a sure top 10, fell to 18... plenty before them have slid due to similar circumstances.

Can see the top 8 looking anything like this:

1. Weitering
2. Schache
3. Mills
4. Curnow
5. Hopper
6. Kennedy
7. Parish
8. Balic/Weideman/McKay/Milera

I still believe there's a chance. Just don't think we should be blowing two good picks to get one high one, we can really set up our future here. And regardless of how many posters are bitching and moaning we got screwed in the Dangerfield deal, again, you have to look at the circumstances and more importantly, when all the dust has settled and trades/draftees have come our way - then judge it accordingly.

You can discount Mills/Hopper/Kennedy as they are academy products, I reckon Gold Coast will take Francis at 3, unless they go Curnow (he's more a forward whereas Francis more of a back) as a result of losing Dixon, Essendon apparently in love with Parish and I don't think Adelaide will go with Curnow (he's a Geelong Falcon as well as is Mathieson)

1. Weitering - Carlton
2. Schache - Brisbane
3. Francis - Gold Coast
4. Parish - Essendon
5. Oliver if St Kilda/ Tucker if Adelaide
6. Curnow- Melbourne
7. Mathieson - Collingwood (could turn into GWS)
8. Hopper or Kennedy - GWS
9. as per 5 - Adelaide / St Kilda ??

So no real reward imo.

edit Curnow i/o Weidmann at Melb

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

That was relating to teams trading out their first rd following year pick when they had quality youngsters to bid for.
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-08-12/afl-closes-draft-bidding-system-loophole

Righto pick 14 here we come

 

[I Lost My Keays]

The thing is would we draft Milera if avaliable or Tucker?

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

if we think we can get Hampton, Anderson and Talia, will we look to trade out Lowden? Kerridge and Wright look gone, but we would still need an extra list spot.

 

[Vader]

Yeah you must make at least 2 first round picks in a 4 year period. Because they wont be making one this year and next year they must make them in 2016 and 17. And it has to be the one you're assigned, not one you trade in.

IMO they could do without this rule. It's not like those picks won't get used and I don't mind watching a team self destruct.

This is what the AFL is trying to prevent. Some list managers (Stephen Wells, I'm looking at you) would trade away the farm, in the aim of short term gain, while destroying their club's long term future. They need to be saved from themselves.

 

[Runnin Blue]

That pornstar moe is worse than Tex's. Maybe even worse then JoeD's. Bloody awful.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. People who cannot grow a proper mo should be banned from growing them until they can.

Got to be the worst AFL fashion trend since the man-bun.

 

[Vader]

What do we make of Grigg only signing a 1 year deal. Would that be his decision or the clubs?

The club's. He's a dead man walking - just like Brodie Martin in 2015, and Lewis Johnston in 2014.

 

[big78sam]

Yeah, but it's a different aspect which I was discussing. For Adelaide (say) 14 is worth more than 28 and 32. For Sydney (say) 28 and 32 are worth more than 14. The AFL has created value from nothing, and there is an arbitrage opportunity.

We could throw in our 4th rounder as well if that meant getting it done. We won't be using it.

 

[Kane Johnson]

CEY re-signing - get his number on your guernseys peeps!

 

[Vader]

So if we are delisting Wright AND trading Kerridge AND upgrading two rookies ... what spots do we have left to fill this trade / draft period?

Bacon8 ?

Senior List changes are as follows, with assumed trades in brackets:
IN: Kelly, ROB, Gore, (Hampton)
OUT: Reilly, JPod, Siggins, Martin, Dangerfield, (Kerridge)

That leaves us with 2 vacancies. Noble has stated that they wish to use 3 live selections in the draft. I expect Wright to be delisted, with the announcement coming as soon as the trading period has finished.

 

[Bacon8]

i'm not sure, i just recall reading they made an adjusted to prevent a loophole is the system, I might have just imagined it though.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-08-12/afl-closes-draft-bidding-system-loophole

It talks about trading away picks, but doesn't say you can't receive picks back.

 

[GSMP89]

So when do we start planning the banking of 2016 picks for the Ben Jarman Father Son bid?

 

[Danoz]

So when do we start planning the banking of 2016 picks for the Ben Jarman Father Son bid?

Won't need to. Projected late 2nd to 3rd rd pick will get it done. That's if he even chooses us.

 

[Bacon8]

Senior List changes are as follows, with assumed trades in brackets:
IN: Kelly, ROB, Gore, (Hampton)
OUT: Reilly, JPod, Siggins, Martin, Dangerfield, (Kerridge)

That leaves us with 2 vacancies. Noble has stated that they wish to use 3 live selections in the draft. I expect Wright to be delisted, with the announcement coming as soon as the trading period has finished.

The assumption Kelly & ROB are upgraded won't be confirmed until Oct 31 (List lodgement day). Their announcements didn't state they would be senior players.

http://www.afc.com.au/news/2015-08-13/obrien-signs-on-the-dotted-line
http://www.afc.com.au/news/2015-07-31/kelly-signs-on

If we got a decent 4th pick, we may not promote one of these guys.

For the right trade, we may not promote either.

 

[SydCrow]

Did anyone catch how Rowey reckoned we could somehow end up with pick 5?

he probably looked at our picks and figured 13 - 9 = 5??

 

[spexau]

This is what the AFL is trying to prevent. Some list managers (Stephen Wells, I'm looking at you) would trade away the farm, in the aim of short term gain, while destroying their club's long term future. They need to be saved from themselves.

Yep. Wouldn't bother me in the slightest

 

[Danoz]

he probably looked at our picks and figured 13 - 9 = 5??

13-9=4, or is that the joke?

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Really like us to have a full crack at Anderson now.

Do the pick swap with Sydney and use 14 on Anderson - leaves us with 9 and 13 in the draft.

We can then make a decision (if an opportunity develops) on whether we want to use pick 13 in a trade with Carlton for either Menzel or Yarran (and Kerridge included) OR use it in the draft.

If we got Gore, Hampton, Anderson, Menzel / Yarran and used pick 9 in the draft I'd be pretty happy.

Lets hold strong on pick 28 for Anderson, no way known worth pick 14

I hope we get get hold of pick 14, any rumour of this or just bigfooty speculation?

 

[Deaneus!]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. People who cannot grow a proper mo should be banned from growing them until they can.

Got to be the worst AFL fashion trend since the man-bun.

As a man with a Fu Manchu moustache that reaches my ears, I have to agree. Do it properly or don't do it at all.

Also, thanks to Danoz for the link - I understand the system now, and whilst I'm not sure how the shuffling of picks works that far down the order (what if two teams have similar values, if the first team gets pick 64 then another team gets pick 62, does that push the 64 down the order?), I see the AFL have indeed created an arbitrage market which I suspect Adelaide are uniquely situated to exploit this year. I sincerely hope we plan to do so.

 

[Bacon8]

As a man with a Fu Manchu moustache that reaches my ears, I have to agree. Do it properly or don't do it at all.

Also, thanks to Danoz for the link - I understand the system now, and whilst I'm not sure how the shuffling of picks works that far down the order (what if two teams have similar values, if the first team gets pick 64 then another team gets pick 62, does that push the 64 down the order?), I see the AFL have indeed created an arbitrage market which I suspect Adelaide are uniquely situated to exploit this year. I sincerely hope we plan to do so.

If, say 57 is shifted to 62, then 58 becomes 57, 59 is 58, etc.

If, then 55 goes to 64, then the original 58 is now 56, and the new 62 is now 61.

 

[Wilko91]

Since he was 17? Yeah, good chance of that happening.

Not for me unfortuantely

 

[baldandbroke]

Lets hold strong on pick 28 for Anderson, no way known worth pick 14

I hope we get get hold of pick 14, any rumour of this or just bigfooty speculation?

It's not what he's worth - it what he costs.

I'd take the risk on Anderson ... what are we using the pick on anyway? If we only have 2 spots left to fill we use 9 and 13.