Round 1 tips

[Go the Guts]

I could follow your lead and highlight stories about how Mitch Duncan is an elite kick or how some believe Mark Blicavs is revolutionising the game or how more AFL captains believe Patrick Dangerfield will win the Brownlow than any other player.

But what's the point? I watch a lot of football and a lot of Adelaide games. I don't need statistics and media puff pieces to form my opinions.

I know that last year Adelaide had just three H&A wins over eventual finalists, including one over a very disinterested West Coast late in the season. I also know you had a charmed run with injury, a cushy draw (2x games against Brisbane and Gold Coast, 1x trip to Perth) and that you've since lost your best player.

Why is it so hard for Adelaide supporters to accept others don't rate your 2016 chances like you do?

It's only about as hard as most you mob believing you'll instantly become top 4 or even top 8 contenders again.

 

[Unique Name]

Richmond Vs Carlton - Tigers by 36pts
Carlton will put up a great fight but Richmond to get on top after half time and cruise to an easy victory.

Melbourne Vs GWS - Giants by 30pts
Think people are forgetting how good GWS were when Mumford was up and about, Cameron out hurts but they should easily account for the Demons.

Gold Coast Vs Essendon - Suns by 36pts
Gold Coast should easily account for the Bombers.

North Melbourne vs Adelaide - Crows by 12pts
I think Adelaide have a really well balanced team and so do North but you never know if they'll turn up in Rnd 1. I think this could be match of the round.

Sydney Vs Collingwood - Swans by 18pts
Laughable talks of Swans dropping out of the 8. They're always rusty in the early rounds but I think they'll come home with 4pts.

Western Bulldogs Vs Fremantle - Freo by 24pts
Freo to grind the Bulldogs run to a halt, similar to Round 1 last year against Port.

Port Adelaide Vs Saint Kilda - Port by 18pts
At home Port should win this.

West Coast Vs Brisbane - Eagles by 90pts
It was going to be a hiding before Zorko and Beams were going to miss.

Hawthorn Vs Geelong - Hawks by 24pts
Just can't tip against the Hawks.

 

[ok.crows]

I could follow your lead and highlight stories about how Mitch Duncan is an elite kick or how some believe Mark Blicavs is revolutionising the game or how more AFL captains believe Patrick Dangerfield will win the Brownlow than any other player.

But what's the point? I watch a lot of football and a lot of Adelaide games. I don't need statistics and media puff pieces to form my opinions.

I know that last year Adelaide had just three H&A wins over eventual finalists, including one over a very disinterested West Coast late in the season. I also know you had a charmed run with injury, a cushy draw (2x games against Brisbane and Gold Coast, 1x trip to Perth) and that you've since lost your best player.

Why is it so hard for Adelaide supporters to accept others don't rate your 2016 chances like you do?

In this thread the topic is "round 1 tips" ... we are not talking about 2016 chances we are talking about round 1 ... for Adelaide that happens to involve a game against North Melbourne.

You claimed that North's list "batted much deeper" ... I pointed out that you can only arrive at that conclusion if you ignored the actual lists of Adelaide and North.

Last year Round 1 2015 Adelaide v North Melbourne - Adelaide won by 77 points.

Since then true enough Adelaide have lost one important player ... but they have gained at least two, possibly three, (Brad Crouch, Wayne Milera and Paul Seedsman) who did not play last year, and who will replace Dangerfield plus the two worst performers from last year's side. Two of those inclusions are quality players.

This is what you replied to: "I'm actually pretty shocked that people think the kangaroos will thrash the crows.... it might just be me but when I put the crows and roos list side by side... I still think the crows list is better."

Even though the round 1 match this year is at Etihad rather than AO I put it to you that the objective evidence is in favour of the other poster and not you ... it is objectively quite unreasonable that people would think the kangaroos will thrash the crows.

{Edit} PS: I think it is interesting to note that in last year's round 1 game against North there were four Crows players who made a greater contribution than Dangerfield and two others who made about the same contribution. All six are still in the Adelaide side for round 1 this year.

 

[replicant]

The only tips I'm 100% confident with are Richmond, Hawthorn and Eagles.

Last year the Hawks started WLWLWL vs Cats, Bombers, Dogs, Power,Roos, Giants.

They start their off season a few weeks later than everyone else, so their early season from might be a bit more unpredictable. Geelong look like they may have improved a bit too. Tough one to call.

 

[EBERT THE KING]

In this thread the topic is "round 1 tips" ... we are not talking about 2016 chances we are talking about round 1 ... for Adelaide that happens to involve a game against North Melbourne.

You claimed that North's list "batted much deeper" ... I pointed out that you can only arrive at that conclusion if you ignored the actual lists of Adelaide and North.

Last year Round 1 2015 Adelaide v North Melbourne - Adelaide won by 77 points.

Since then true enough Adelaide have lost one important player ... but they have gained at least two, possibly three, (Brad Crouch, Wayne Milera and Paul Seedsman) who did not play last year, and who will replace Dangerfield plus the two worst performers from last year's side. Two of those inclusions are quality players.

This is what you replied to: "I'm actually pretty shocked that people think the kangaroos will thrash the crows.... it might just be me but when I put the crows and roos list side by side... I still think the crows list is better."

Even though the round 1 match this year is at Etihad rather than AO I put it to you that the objective evidence is in favour of the other poster and not you ... it is objectively quite unreasonable that people would think the kangaroos will thrash the crows.

I'm obviously impartial but I just cannot see Adelaide playing finals.

 

[ok.crows]

I'm obviously impartial but I just cannot see Adelaide playing finals.

Fine ... but remember we are talking here about round 1 ... first things first.

 

[schmuttt]

God I can't wait for footy to be back

 

[jreesosb]

Richmond over blues
Melbourne over gws
Gold coast over bombers
North over crows
Sydney over pies
Fremantle over doggies
Port over saints
west Coast over lions
Hawthorn over cats

 

[Mad_Hatter]

Thread about round 1 tips is full of defensive crow fans crying that people think they will lose.
Give it a rest and harden up ya sooks.

 

[Tiger71]

I think Richmond are the classic example. Every single year we listen to how they are on the rise again. Top 4. Smokey for the flag. I swear I wouldn't be a tigers supporter for quids. Must be a constant disappointment.

Not really. It's only the fools and idiots who say that every year and we tigers just ignore them. I can not believe outside supporters lap it up like you must have, to form that opinion. Most of us are quite realistic of our list and where we are have been and where we are going, you would be to if you had Walls, then Spud and rounded off with Wallace as coach.

 

[Crows4Eva]

I think many Crows fans underestimate how much losing Danger will hurt but I also think many non-Crows fans overestimate it. Having seen our NAB form and the style we're going for (Which Im guessing many outside SA didn't see) Im confident we can at least be competitive. If that translates to us making finals and so on, we will have to wait and see.

 

[Collingwoodity]

I think many Crows fans underestimate how much losing Danger will hurt but I also think many non-Crows fans overestimate it. Having seen our NAB form and the style we're going for (Which Im guessing many outside SA didn't see) Im confident we can at least be competitive. If that translates to us making finals and so on, we will have to wait and see.

Crows are competitive. But, in many games over the past few years Dangerfield snuffed a comeback chance on his own. I just think that will be the difference.

 

[Crows4Eva]

Crows are competitive. But, in many games over the past few years Dangerfield snuffed a comeback chance on his own. I just think that will be the difference.

Its something we have to adapt to. You can't 'replace' Dangerfield, you adapt to him being gone. How effectively we do that will decide how successful we are this season.

 

[Tyler Hodges]

There's no reason for the Lions to be sending their best team to Perth sending rookies wouldn't hurt play our best team 6 days later against North Melbourne

Nothing quite like throwing in the towel before the first bounce of the season... Have some faith man what kind of message does that send to the playing group?

 

[Tyler Hodges]

Its something we have to adapt to. You can't 'replace' Dangerfield, you adapt to him being gone. How effectively we do that will decide how successful we are this season.

Crouch boys.

 

[moses]

Football is an unpredictable sport, that's why it is so great. Who would have thought that the Bulldogs, after loosing Cooney, their captain in Ryan Griffen, Higgans and their coach would have the season they did. Dangerfield is a tremendous loss to Adelaide, no about that, but I believe having a new coach (our 4th in three season) arguably has more impact. New game structures, games plans, interchange cap are all big factors which will shape Adelaide this season. I suspect finals may be a bridge too far for us this year, but to put it down to just loosing Dangerfield is just lazy, there are a number of factors at play.

 

[EBERT THE KING]

Football is an unpredictable sport, that's why it is so great. Who would have thought that the Bulldogs, after loosing Cooney, their captain in Ryan Griffen, Higgans and their coach would have the season they did. Dangerfield is a tremendous loss to Adelaide, no about that, but I believe having a new coach (our 4th in three season) arguably has more impact. New game structures, games plans, interchange cap are all big factors which will shape Adelaide this season. I suspect finals may be a bridge too far for us this year, but to put it down to just loosing Dangerfield is just lazy, there are a number of factors at play.

I think the fact that the bulldogs have dominated the draft in previous years puts them in front of Adelaide.

 

[moses]

I think the fact that the bulldogs have dominated the draft in previous years puts them in front of Adelaide.

Maybe - 2 years of loosing 1st and 2nd round draft picks after the Tippet debacle certainly doesn't help us. Is a reason why we traded out Vince, traded in Seedsman, Hampton, Menzel etc to cover gaps in our list. Bulldogs certainly have a bright future. FWIW I think GWS will really start to hit their straps this season. List is amazing.

 

[Collingwoodity]

Nothing quite like throwing in the towel before the first bounce of the season... Have some faith man what kind of message does that send to the playing group?

Exactly what I thought.

 

[TeeJay Blue]

Richmond V Carlton (26 pts)
Melbourne V GWS Giants (41 pts)
Gold Coast Suns V Essendon (55 pts)
North Melbourne V Adelaide (13 pts)
Syndey V Collingwood (7 pts)
Fremantle V Western Bulldogs (32 pts)
Port Adelaide V St. Kilda (29 pts)
West Coast Eagles V Brisbane (46 pts)
Hawthorn V Geelong (10 pts)

 

[Lsta062]

I would be happy to make finals again this year , I just don't understand why so many people have written us off? Oh that's right it's because it's the loss of Dangerfield

I for one think that Adelaide will be good this year, but it is a valid point to say that the loss of Dangerfield will lead to a finish outside of the top 8, or even a low finish. Dangerfield is one of those midfielders that can lift a side, which is why he is one of the best players in the league. If he could make a team like Richmond a genuine Premiership contender, then his departure could definitely leave a team that finished 7th at the end of the H&A season with Dangerfield finish outside of the top 8 the following season.

I don't think they will miss the 8 because of their awesome forward line and decent defence, but won't accuse those who write the Crows off with being unreasonable as Dangerfield is a huge loss. Without a solid midfield, you could still finish low despite the good forward line as the delivery from the midfield and into the forward 50 also contributes to the end score. Again, I don't think they'll finish low, but I can see where people who say this are coming from

 

[ok.crows]

I for one think that Adelaide will be good this year, but it is a valid point to say that the loss of Dangerfield will lead to a finish outside of the top 8, or even a low finish. Dangerfield is one of those midfielders that can lift a side, which is why he is one of the best players in the league. If he could make a team like Richmond a genuine Premiership contender, then his departure could definitely leave a team that finished 7th at the end of the H&A season with Dangerfield finish outside of the top 8 the following season.

When did Dangerfield have anything to do with Richmond? {PS: If you meant Geelong, you must first establish that Geelong is a premiership contender this season}.

I don't think they will miss the 8 because of their awesome forward line and decent defence, but won't accuse those who write the Crows off with being unreasonable as Dangerfield is a huge loss.

To support this argument you would have to consider the relative strengths of Adelaide's entire midfield rotation this year compared to last. It isn't as simple as "Dangerfield is a huge loss" ... not by a long shot.

Last year round 1 Adelaide midfield (in order of statistical contributions): Rory Sloane, Richard Douglas, Patrick Dangerfield, Sam Jacobs, David Mackay, Jarryd Lyons, Cam Ellis-Yolmen, Ricky Henderson

This year round 1 likely midfield (in no order): Rory Sloane, Richard Douglas, Sam Jacobs, Matt Crouch, Brad Crouch, Scott Thompson, Wayne Milera, Paul Seedsman and one of Jarryd Lyons, Rory Atkins, Riely Knight and David Mackay

Without a solid midfield, you could still finish low despite the good forward line as the delivery from the midfield and into the forward 50 also contributes to the end score. Again, I don't think they'll finish low, but I can see where people who say this are coming from

To make this case you must first establish that the 2016 midfield rotation as listed above is less solid than the 2015 one. Good luck with that.

 

[Lsta062]

When did Dangerfield have anything to do with Richmond?



To support this argument you would have to consider the relative strengths of Adelaide's entire midfield rotation this year compared to last. It isn't as simple as "Dangerfield is a huge loss" ... not by a long shot.

Last year round 1 Adelaide midfield (in order of statistical contributions): Rory Sloane, Richard Douglas, Patrick Dangerfield, Sam Jacobs, David Mackay, Jarryd Lyons, Cam Ellis-Yolmen, Ricky Henderson

This year round 1 likely midfield (in no order): Rory Sloane, Richard Douglas, Sam Jacobs, Matt Crouch, Brad Crouch, Scott Thompson, Wayne Milera, Paul Seedsman and one of Jarryd Lyons, Rory Atkins, Riely Knight and David Mackay


To make this case you must first establish that the 2016 midfield as listed above is less solid than the 2015 one. Good luck with that.

The Richmond thing is just hypothetically speaking. A player of his quality could take Richmond from an EF losing side to becoming a genuine contender.

I personally believe that Adelaide can cover the loss of Dangerfield (and even become a top 4 side this year). However, to say that the list of mids you presented is not better with having Dangerfield in it requires some form of hope that it'll all gel together this year rather than having evidence.

It's like saying that Fremantle are not worse off without having Fyfe. But, Fremantle do perform decently without Fyfe, which is why I think Adelaide will be a decent side without Dangerfield. But still, I don't think it is unreasonable to suggest Adelaide will miss finals because of the loss of a player like Dangerfield

 

[ok.crows]

However, to say that the list of mids you presented is not better with having Dangerfield in it requires some form of hope that it'll all gel together this year rather than having evidence.

Fair enough ... but there is a certain amount of evidence from internal trials and NAB Challenge form of the individuals involved. For example, each one of Brad Crouch, Matt Crouch and Scott Thompson have equivalent or better rates of getting the ball than Dangerfield, and their disposal efficiency is at least as good as Dangerfield's. Where they miss out is that they might take a few less marks, and they have nowhere near the media hype associated with them. IMO it is perfectly reasonable for me to hope that lack of media hype won't actually mean much in terms of in-game performances.

It's like saying that Fremantle are not worse off without having Fyfe. But, Fremantle do perform decently without Fyfe, which is why I think Adelaide will be a decent side without Dangerfield.

I would point out, once again, that it is not as simple as "Fremantle are not worse off without having Fyfe" or "Adelaide are not worse off without having Dangerfield". There are more changes to Adelaide's midfield apart from just the absence of Dangerfield.

But still, I don't think it is unreasonable to suggest Adelaide will miss finals because of the loss of a player like Dangerfield

I do. "Adelaide will miss finals because of the loss of a player like Dangerfield" is far too simple an analysis, it does not represent the whole story in any way, shape or form.

 

[Lsta062]

Fair enough ... but there is a certain amount of evidence from internal trials and NAB Challenge form of the individuals involved. For example, each one of Brad Crouch, Matt Crouch and Scott Thompson have equivalent or better rates of getting the ball than Dangerfield, and their disposal efficiency is at least as good as Dangerfield's. Where they miss out is that they might take a few less marks, and they have nowhere near the media hype associated with them. IMO it is perfectly reasonable for me to hope that lack of media hype won't actually mean much in terms of in-game performances.

Definitely reasonable to hope that lack of media hype won't mean much. They misread players/teams quite often generally speaking, so there is hope for Adelaide