Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[WWSD]

What is the squiggle predicting for Hawthorn vs Sydney next week?

 

[Randomizor]

What is the squiggle predicting for Hawthorn vs Sydney next week?

Pain

 

[Gydafud]

They're there the whole time under Forecast (click the + next to Home & Away)

But that is a whole extra click!

 

[HeHateMe]

Pain

That's this week

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[Randomizor]

That's this week

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How will you cope?

 

[HeHateMe]

How will you cope?

Pretty fine I would think. Expecting a 50 point win.

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[Dannnnnnnnnn]

It's great when the Squiggle lines up with the eye test. I thought the Dogs put considerably more effort into attacking against the Crows and took a bit of a hit defensively, even factoring in Adelaide's excellent offensive ability. Sure enough, the Squiggle has us losing ground defensively but gaining a bit of ground offensively.

 

[Randomizor]

Pretty fine I would think. Expecting a 50 point win.

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Wow that impressed by our last game hey? Nice

 

[HeHateMe]

Wow that impressed by our last game hey? Nice

Nope, just that's about right for where you guys sit and where we do.

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[The Swans Blog]

Pain

Fremantle are due for a win and I reckon they'll be right up for it in Tas. They have a decent record there, or have at least been competitive.

 

[philohk]

Fremantle are due for a win and I reckon they'll be right up for it in Tas. They have a decent record there, or have at least been competitive.

Do you mean the match we won 115-43, the one before that we won 118-76 or the one before that we won 119-63?

 

[The Swans Blog]

Do you mean the match we won 115-43, the one before that we won 118-76 or the one before that we won 119-63?

Against North at least. But yes, those ultra competitive games

 

[WWSD]

Do you mean the match we won 115-43, the one before that we won 118-76 or the one before that we won 119-63?

I don't think this weeks game against Fremantle will be as one-sided as some are suggesting. Fremantle will be more then competitive and games at Aurora are fairly scrappy. I wouldn't be surprised if we just get over the line by a couple of goals.

 

[DrEvil_]

How about this: 12 Months Ago -> Now

Hardwick is hard done by the media and fans it seems.

 

[DrEvil_]

The Squiggle, unlike Roby's "power rankings", is transparent. The ratings are largely determined by match scores. Hawthorn's high ranking is more due to the fact that they are the defending premiers. It takes a while for the Squiggle to "catch up" to current events.

TL;DR the Squiggle isn't head****ed by Hawthorn

The same cannot be said about chuckychicken.

 

[Final Siren]

Hardwick is hard done by the media and fans it seems.

R7 was Richmond's lowest point of last year. So we're a little flattered by that.

Measuring from the start of 2016, Richmond is this season's biggest loser by a fair margin.

 

[The Swans Blog]

The same cannot be said about chuckychicken.

I resent that.

 

[The Swans Blog]

Not quite sure how Squiggles is giving Ninthmond a genuine chance in the game this weekend.

 

[Final Siren]

Not quite sure how Squiggles is giving Ninthmond a genuine chance in the game this weekend.

Because home advantage, mostly.

Here is the regular squiggle algorithm, which awards 12 points for home state advantage, plus three variants: one that doesn't award any home advantage, one that awards 6 points, and one that awards 18 points:

They're very similar! But the yellow regular squiggle is the most successful: It's best (or equal best) in 8 of those years, and worst (or equal worst) only once.

It also has a lower error margin, which is usually a good guide as to whether an algorithm is genuinely accurate or just getting lucky.

 

[The Punter]

Hmmm ... the squiggle becomes incredibly more accurate at predicting from 2011.

Could it be that perhaps the introduction of the two new franchises severely compromised the evenness of the league, and this has now been entrenched?

 

[laam]

I don't think it's more accurate. Just extra games per week compared to previously. So a higher maximum. And given how terrible the expansion teams were a guaranteed correct tip. It is now lowering again as the expansion teams get better. But will never get to the previous level due to more games.

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[cat in sydney]

Because home advantage, mostly.

Here is the regular squiggle algorithm, which awards 12 points for home state advantage, plus three variants: one that doesn't award any home advantage, one that awards 6 points, and one that awards 18 points...

So, if we take the red squiggle (6 points home adv.) which has been the more accurate in 2 of the past 3 seasons, would the tips simply change by 6 points each team (e.g. instead of Adelaide defeating Geelong by 5 points, Geelong defeats Adelaide by 1), or is it more complicated than that?

 

[The Punter]

I don't think it's more accurate. Just extra games per week compared to previously. So a higher maximum. And given how terrible the expansion teams were a guaranteed correct tip. It is now lowering again as the expansion teams get better. But will never get to the previous level due to more games.

All the algorithms have gone up by 20-25 matches, when there were 11 extra matches in 2011, and another extra 11 in 2012 (adding up to an increase of 22 from 2010-2012). Which means that the algorithms is roughly tipping all the extra matches correctly.

Which means it is more accurate now. It isn't tipping the extra games at the same level of accuracy, it's doing it at an increased level of accuracy.

This is because equalisation in the AFL doesn't work as effectively as it used to.

 

[old55]

All the algorithms have gone up by 20-25 matches, when there were 11 extra matches in 2011, and another extra 11 in 2012 (adding up to an increase of 22 from 2010-2012). Which means that the algorithms is roughly tipping all the extra matches correctly.

Which means it is more accurate now. It isn't tipping the extra games at the same level of accuracy, it's doing it at an increased level of accuracy.

This is because equalisation in the AFL doesn't work as effectively as it used to.

Agree it would be nice to see a normalised graph of % correct.

 

[Big_Tony]

All the algorithms have gone up by 20-25 matches, when there were 11 extra matches in 2011, and another extra 11 in 2012 (adding up to an increase of 22 from 2010-2012). Which means that the algorithms is roughly tipping all the extra matches correctly.

Which means it is more accurate now. It isn't tipping the extra games at the same level of accuracy, it's doing it at an increased level of accuracy.

This is because equalisation in the AFL doesn't work as effectively as it used to.

Yes, but most of the games GWS and GC have been involved in since they started in the comp have been very easy to predict; they very frequently resulted in big losses. So you would expect the algorithm to have a very good chance at predicting those extra matches.