2016 US Presidential Election - Trump vs Clinton? - Part 1

[james brayshaw]

He has another wife?

What exactly is it you're implying?

http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/nati...talk-Omar-Mateen-out-of-attack-382958401.html
I'm asking if people think Trump is right about going after their families considering his wife knew he was planning something. This was also the case in the San Bernardino shootings as well as in Paris and Belgium recently. Should families, friends and associates be punished for knowing of plans beforehand and not reporting to authorities?

 

[Big Dix]

Inspiring speech, looking forward to this man becoming president.

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/press-...s-terrorism-immigration-and-national-security

What a beautiful speech. And we're stuck with ****ing Turncoat or Shorten.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

Oh god emperor why you do this?

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-06-14/bloomberg-politics-national-poll-june-2016

 

[JackNah_8]

Ah, the old Obama is simultaneously everything conservatives don't like about the USA argument.

He's weak and dangerous. Doesn't intervene enough and a tyrant. A Muslim who takes his orders from radical black Christianity. A Socialist who's in thrall to Goldman Sachs.

Almost makes me nostalgic.

Weak....well he really hates Trump. just heard Obama's latest press conference and he didn't hold back lol

 

[JoseMourinho]

Oh god emperor why you do this?

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-06-14/bloomberg-politics-national-poll-june-2016

View attachment 256831

750 voters? Sheesh.

Could have gone either way IMO.

 

[hazard]

Trump is giving a speech at a rally at the moment

 

[hazard]

HE'S ABOUT TO READ 'THE SNAKE'!

 

[hazard]

750 voters? Sheesh.

Could have gone either way IMO.

A few polls have come out recently showing him behind this week unfortunately.

Fortunately, the Crooked Hillary shills told me that polls don't matter this far out from the election. And given their responses to Orlando (after which, no polls have been conducted yet), he'll be a shoo in.

 

[JoseMourinho]

A few polls have come out recently showing him behind this week unfortunately.

Fortunately, the Crooked Hillary shills told me that polls don't matter this far out from the election. And given their responses to Orlando (after which, no polls have been conducted yet), he'll be a shoo in.

I'm specifically mentioning the 750 one, the others have slightly more sample size.

 

[hazard]

http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/nati...talk-Omar-Mateen-out-of-attack-382958401.html
I'm asking if people think Trump is right about going after their families considering his wife knew he was planning something. This was also the case in the San Bernardino shootings as well as in Paris and Belgium recently. Should families, friends and associates be punished for knowing of plans beforehand and not reporting to authorities?

Of course they should.

In this case, given that the wife not only knew he was planning the massacre, but had driven him there before to "scope out the place", she should be charged as an accomplice.

 

[mellowyellow]

Trump is giving a speech at a rally at the moment

He looks lost Nuremberg is a long way from his hometown.

 

[Forward Press]

I'm specifically mentioning the 750 one, the others have slightly more sample size.

It can be fine, depending on where the sample was drawn from. You'd be surprised how representative small sample sizes can be, even for 150m potential voters.

 

[JoseMourinho]

It can be fine, depending on where the sample was drawn from. You'd be surprised how representative small sample sizes can be, even for 150m potential voters.

I did stats and that is a fairly small sample size. I mean people in SRP were being critical over a poll with 1,500 voters favouring the Liberals.

Have to be careful with the polls with under 2,000 sample size IMO.

 

[hazard]

It can be fine, depending on where the sample was drawn from. You'd be surprised how representative small sample sizes can be, even for 150m potential voters.

This is correct.

The main methodological issue with that poll is that they included Gary Johnson (taking votes away from Trump) but not Jill Stein (who would take votes from Crooked Hillary).

 

[hazard]

I did stats and that is a fairly small sample size. I mean people in SRP were being critical over a poll with 1,500 voters favouring the Liberals.

Have to be careful with the polls with under 2,000 sample size IMO.

I teach stats and honestly, the smallish sample size isn't really an issue. Most polls are under 2000 people, around 1200-1600 seems to be a common sample size.

 

[JoseMourinho]

I teach stats and honestly, the smallish sample size isn't really an issue. Most polls are under 2000 people, around 1200-1600 seems to be a common sample size.

I should probably put that I don't like polls until the election actually happens .

 

[hazard]

I should probably put that I don't like polls until the election actually happens .

True, and like I said before, it didn't include Jill Stein, who takes a lot of Crooked Hillary voters but few Trump voters.

That said, I think the Curiel comments hurt Trump. I understand that Curiel is a member of a racist Mexican hate group, but mentioning his Mexican heritage when everyone is already ultra-primed to label anything Trump says as "racist" was probably a mistake.

Fortunately, Crooked Hillary can't run for president from inside a jail cell.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

This is correct.

The main methodological issue with that poll is that they included Gary Johnson (taking votes away from Trump) but not Jill Stein (who would take votes from Crooked Hillary).

Jill Stein has run for president before and not registered a meaningful vote %. Similar to the libertarian party.

There is not necessarily any reason to believe this will change dramatically for Jill Stein given that there is actually no infighting within the Democratic party. Those most aggrieved are outside the party, so won't really shake the numbers too much. This is different to the Republican party which as a not insignificant number of disaffected #nevertrump that might siphon off to the libertarian party.

Having said that, it's really a crap shoot at this stage, it's an unprecedented dynamic this year and will be interesting to see how it all shakes out as we get closer and start getting reliable swing state polling.

 

[hazard]

Jill Stein has run for president before and not registered a meaningful vote %. Similar to the libertarian party.

There is not necessarily any reason to believe this will change dramatically for Jill Stein given that there is actually no infighting within the Democratic party. Those most aggrieved are outside the party, so won't really shake the numbers too much. This is different to the Republican party which as a not insignificant number of disaffected #nevertrump that might siphon off to the libertarian party.

Having said that, it's really a crap shoot at this stage, it's an unprecedented dynamic this year and will be interesting to see how it all shakes out as we get closer and start getting reliable swing state polling.

Well these are the average polling numbers when Stein is in the mix:



A more realistic 3 point lead to Crooked Hillary, although there hasn't been one of these done for a week.

Judging by the war that's being waged against DWS, I'd say there's a pretty big case of infighting within the Democrats.

Dunno about you, but BOY OH BOY WOWEE am I excited for the debates!

 

[smokingjacket]

http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/nati...talk-Omar-Mateen-out-of-attack-382958401.html
I'm asking if people think Trump is right about going after their families considering his wife knew he was planning something. This was also the case in the San Bernardino shootings as well as in Paris and Belgium recently. Should families, friends and associates be punished for knowing of plans beforehand and not reporting to authorities?

In this situation as in San Bernardino, you should apply the law. His comments regarding going after families that I saw, was in reference to foreign fighters. It was part of his plan to disrupt ISIS. For this domestic scenario, as hazard has already stated, if a relative has aided the perp to carry out the crime, you can charge them as an accomplice. I don't think anyone would find objections to that. Trump could look at introducing a bill that expands the scope for charging accomplice's but it's probably unnecessary.

 

[Scallop Industry Thug]

Why do you constantly use the phrase Crooked Hillary?

 

[Badesumofu]

Why do you constantly use the phrase Crooked Hillary?

Because his great Demagogue hero told him to. Hazard has also adopted a lot of Trump's signature syntax if you look over his posting. Sad!

(see what I did there?)

 

[Scallop Industry Thug]

Because his great Demagogue hero told him to. Hazard has also adopted a lot of Trump's signature syntax if you look over his posting. Sad!

(see what I did there?)

You've made a very good observation. Great work!

 

[Forward Press]

Cucks stumped by hazard!

Honestly, just ignore him.

 

[james Dean]

Oh god emperor why you do this?

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-06-14/bloomberg-politics-national-poll-june-2016

View attachment 256831

Polling in the swing states is what is important and Clinton holds a +1 lead in Ohio, Florida so it is virtually neck and neck. It is far too close to call at this stage, but I think Clinton will win.